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Subject: Iran-India-Pak gas line and US opposition
Herc the Merc    1/27/2007 7:04:47 PM
US opposes Iran-Pak-India gas pipeline Jan 5, 2006 The US is 'absolutely opposed' to a natural gas pipeline project linking Iran with Pakistan and India, a State Department official reiterated. 'The US government supports multiple pipelines from the region but remains absolutely opposed to pipelines involving Iran,' senior State Department official Steven Mann told a forum in Washington organized by Johns Hopkins University. Mann, the special negotiator for Eurasian conflicts in the State Department's bureau of European affairs, spoke after an ADB expert told the forum that the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline and another planned pipeline project linking Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan were both feasible. Dan Millison, ADB's senior energy specialist, said that his assessment was based purely on economic grounds and demand from India and Pakistan.
 
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Herc the Merc       1/27/2007 7:08:53 PM
I think Iran gasline is a necessity for both countries as it is a vital cheap clean energy source--Iran doesn't threaten India or pakistan, but its current collision with US & Israels is delaying the inevitability of this project. Apparently the US plan is to starve Iran of more money for obvious reasons--problem is India and Pak do not have time and less energy resources directly translate to death in the subcontinent. THe US needs to resolve this or let the pipeline of gas flow. Time is running out -after a point India and Pak may have to be openly hostile to such strategic energy chokepoints.
 
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Herc the Merc    Looks like its a green lite- a major boost for the region to solve its needs   1/27/2007 8:36:59 PM
>> Importance of Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline

If the news is true that Iran, Pakistan and India have agreed on a formula for setting a rate for Iranian gas, today could be a red-letter day for Pakistan. The top official of the National Iranian Oil Company says the agreement was reached in Tehran and now the three countries have a month in which to confirm it at the governmental level, after which the pipeline is a done deal, promising to transform Pakistan and change the strategic significance of the region by guaranteeing peace instead of war!

The project was stalled for so long since 1994 that its cost must have reached $7 billion by now, but it is still worth having for a number of reasons. It will run for 1,500 miles across Iran and Pakistan, and will supply gas to India too. Pakistan will look after the pipeline for India and will get some rental, with which it will be able to improve the lives of the Baloch through whose territory it will pass. It will also be a project to transform Pakistan and reinvent its foreign image as well as its self-image. We have few energy options on the table and need the pipeline more than India.

The pipeline was obstructed by the usual drag of India-Pakistan relations, which nose-dived after 2001 as India returned with its consulates to Afghanistan and Pakistan began to blame it for fuelling the rebellion in Balochistan. In 2004 peace diplomacy restarted the talks on the project, but soon India began to drag its feet on the pipeline after becoming America’s strategic ally with attractive contracts for nuclear power production. Also, it could fall back on its fleet of ships for transporting Liquefied Petroleum Gas and there were lobbies in India that cast doubt on Pakistan’s ability to achieve internal peace long enough to actually ensure India a regular supply of gas.

Pakistan has been talking about pipelines since 1990. It first thought it would get gas from Turkmenistan and become a transit country for it because the real customer would be India. But it couldn’t change itself radically from a warrior nation to a trading one that looked forward to developing normally as an economy with an ensured supply of energy. Because of its other activities, it was barred from acquiring nuclear power plants to produce the electricity it needed; and there was internal rejection of the idea of big dams for hydel energy.

It is, of course, still possible that Pakistan may be dreaming an unrealistic dream, but if it signs an international contract it will be forced to quieten down and not think of jihad and jihadi militias and low-intensity wars.

The glitches came first from India and then from Iran. India is still involved in a kind of arm-wrestling over its agreement with the United States and may be using the Iranian pipeline as one of the counters in that. But once it signs — which will become clear in a month — it will have to participate in the region’s first attempt to revolutionise itself. The other glitch came from Iran, which began having second thoughts from a mixture of approaches, one purely market-related and the other emanating from its habit of self-isolation as a means of attaining honour. India was not willing to pay more than $4.50 per million British Thermal Units (BTU) and Iran was quoting over $7, on the basis of forecasts that international gas prices would skyrocket.

In this three-way deal, Pakistan’s position was the weakest. It had no alternative options because of weaknesses abroad and at home. Some measure of how important it thought the pipeline was can be seen in the fact that Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz did not apply the conditionality of Kashmir to it, which he has so unwisely attached to opening up trade with India. When India seemed to drag its feet the prime minister announced that if India was not willing, Pakistan would go it alone. The Iranian impediment was probably removed by a weakening of the aggressive hold of Iran’s warlike President Mr Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the project.

What Iran gains is far more than just a good reliable source of income. It makes a breakthrough in a region where everyone is keen to establish an economic foothold. It lessens its own isolation and wins regional friends that won’t let it down during crises. It has got India to invest heavily in Iran despite American sanctions — punishing with boycott any company investing more than $40 million in Iran — and also got China to buy its oil futures. Breaking out of isolation also means a willingness to take fewer risks and establish a stake in regional peace. Iran’s isolation has pushed its oil production back to pre-Revolution level, 4 million barrels a day. Now it can potentially become a powerful economy in the region by reaching out

 
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Herc the Merc    As foretold earlier India and Iran bak in bizness   2/1/2007 11:37:06 AM
>>
 

As External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee travels to Iran next week to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue and the multi-billion dollar tri-nation pipeline, the US on Thursday reminded India that there was a US law that penalised any foreign company which invested above $20 million annually in Tehran’s energy sector.

“We have drawn attention to concerned ministries in India on the US legislation regarding doing business with Iran. It was done by me long time ago. The law is there,” US ambassador to India David C Mulford told reporters. The envoy, however, qualified this by saying that the legislation had not been used before and it applied only to companies and not governments. “India has a relationship with Iran. We have accepted it. India has been supportive of sanctions against Iran,” he added. The envoy, however, qualified this by saying that the legislation had not been used before and it applied only to companies and not governments. “India has a relationship with Iran. We have accepted it. India has been supportive of sanctions against Iran,” he added

 
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Pakistan Power       2/20/2007 2:01:28 PM
India has been dragging its feet for years on this pipeline and the cost has already sky-rocketed... Its not worth getting India involved into any project... One look at the history of many big projects emanating out of india.. and u see that its a whole bunch of hot gas/talk that leads nowhere.  Pakistan should go ahead with the project without India and focus on its own domestic energy issues to fuel its current energy deficit and to offer a backup channel to its domestic gas supplies which have increased over the years but by backing it up with cheap iranian gas, it will hold down inflation and keep the price of it low for the lower and middle social classes.  The involvement of India in the project spells nothing but false hope, unnecessary red tape, bribes/corruption, failure and most likely a 50fold increase in cost that will not be worth the economic dividend of involving india in the project for in the first place!   This project has already been delayed some 10yrs now..Pakistan should ditch untrustworthy, corrupt and malingering India, and go at the project on its own which will eventually happen in the end.  Let the indians get there act together themselves, and when they are ready, they can come at a later time a negotiate a seperate treaty
 
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