I think two significant things in these stories should be brought to our attention here:

Firstly, the 'Satellite launch',  North Korea has never publicly (to its own people) acknowledged a launch failure, this is a big step for a country in which (as we have seen in other articles here) rarely, if ever, admits failure.

Second, the Speech by Kim Jong Un, this is very significant, he gave a 20minute speech, his father uttered one sentence in public in his entire reign! He also stated that the the immediate threat to North Korea was over, so interesting to see where that leads..

"China does not want a united, democratic, prosperous Korea on its border."

 

Provide some evidence to back up this unsubstantiated claim. This is so wrong that I am gobsmacked. The Chinese DO NOT, REPEAT, DO NOT fear a united and prosperous Korea on their border. They have had one before. They know what that means. The Chinese do not fear the Koreans.

 

The Chinese fear the United States.

 

China is now South Korea's number one trading partner by volume and by profitability. Right after the Yeonpyeong Island attack, the Chinese Foreign Minister flew to Seoul. The deal has been struck: When the unification comes -- and it will, no new American bases. The Chinese want the Koreans back in the Chinese circle, not in the American. Odds on bet, the Chinese will get that.

 

BTW the NoKos survived the winter because the Chinese ponied up 500,000 tons of rice as a gift. The NoKos will have a hard time this year not for lack of fertilizer but because this spring has been unusually cold which means the crops ain't coming up. Nature may accomplish what 'diplomacy' hasn't and bring the downfall of the House of Kim.

If China was not 'afraid' of a united Korea on it's border, there would be one already.

 

We can only pray that China makes an offer when the NoKos fall:  "We'll bless a unified Korea if foreign troops un-ass the A.O."

 

We should all relish the opportunity to stop wasting time and money in Korea, and by extension Japan.  Ultimately if China now or ever in the future decides to invade the Korean peninsula, there ain't shit we can (conventionally) do about it anyway.  After that China is land-locked.

 

China is ZERO military threat now or for the next 20 years.  Z-E-R-O.  Zip.  Zilch.  China and the US are entangled in an economic version of MAD:  military confrontation with the US (and by extension our allies) would instantly mean the collapse of China's manufacturing sector, putting 200 million people out of work and threatening civil war.  And if China dumps (or even stop buying dollars) our economy collapses, and so would the entire global economy.

 

The funny thing is that China is funding our entire military budget.  They funded IRaq and Afghanistan.  They're funding our new carriers and the F-35.

 

Military men and women think in military terms, but it's an entirely different world we all live in.  The US will never again be involved in a massive land battle such as in WWII's European front.  We are all aghast at 4,000 casualties over 10 years.

 

Who are we going to risk this much blood for again?  Not Korea.  Everyone else we really care about has nukes (GB, France, Israel).  Maybe Australia.   But if China wants Australia, it's cheaper to just buy what they want (resources).

 

It's gonna happen folks, within the next few years (Korean unification).  And I for one welcome it, and look forward to welcoming the 2nd ID and the rest of the USFK back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Food and Fuel Aid,, don't rockets use liquid hydrogen ?? isn't it more than 50cents a gallon at the pump?, why are the people dishing out Food and Fuel Aid not aware of the purchasing of liquid hydrogen?? or whatever rocket fuel they are using.??

I would have thought the CIA would have their handle on the moving of rocket fuel internationally.

it seams to me for all the money taxpayers are paying for "spy services" not a lot is knowen.

 

 

Giblets,

 

The speech Kim gave was to honor his grandfather's 100th birthday. He mimicked his grandfather's way of speaking and lifted heavily from one of Il-Sung's old speeches. It is not all that siginifcant when you put it into context.

Plutarch, 

 

I believe our world has irreversibly changed in that countries invading other countries in order to plunder their resources (think Europe/Africa or UK/India) is OVER.  Especially if it involves invading and occupying a land where there is no border or no historical claim.  Look:  we invaded, destroyed and are rebuilding Iraq.  And we didn't even grab their oil.

 

Yes China gobbled up Tibet in the last century, but  China is land-locked and is no threat militarily because they don't border anyone they can invade and occupy for any long-term gain.  It's just not worth it.

 

Yes if Chinese factories switched over to wartime production it would be scary.  But what are they going to do - take over Indonesia?  They are Muslims, good luck with that.  The Philippines?  Why?  They can't take on India or Russia.  Africa?  Again it's too easy to simply bribe and buy without the hassles of war and occupation. 

 

Sure if the entire global economy turns to shit countries will get desperate, regional conflicts will break out.  But we've just been through 10 years of mindless, gain-less war.  No body buys the line that we invaded Iraq because Saddam was a bad man.  Please.  The only interests to which the American public will support significant involvement is where we have cultural affinities:  Western Europe, Australia,  maybe Israel with air support.  And in our back yard:  central America, Mexico, Caribbean, etc.  If China decided to 'annex' Mongolia, seriously what are we gonna do about it?

Big-boy war is now all economic.  I plan on living past 2084, and in my lifetime a US Army will never destroy a People's Army tank head-to-head.  Or a Russian Army tank.  We'll probably do another Afghanistan/Viet Nam like we seem to do every 40 years or so, and a bunch of Grenadas, Panamas and other low-intensity actions.  Iraq was a once-in-a-lifetime (ok, twice) because there was so much cold-war era armor and weaponry.  The shit is EXPENSIVE now, NOBODY other than the Big Boys is gonna field thousands of tanks again, and if they do they won't have the air power to protect them.  And the Iraqi armor was mostly obsolete, like all of the remaining Soviet-era tanks.

 

Yawn.

 

Wake me up when China has a SINGLE significant overseas base like we have all over the frickin' world.  Wake me up when they have one carrier and air wing that is proven to be worth a damn.  Yes they will eventually have these things, and we can share, can't we?

 

 

 

As for the US withdrawing from Korea and Japan, I believe we could withdraw from Korea. Japan, no. I strongly believe the US needs to keep forces sitting on the Japanese from now until Rapture.

 

The NoKo's actions make sense once you realize that everything, repeat, EVERYTHING they say and do is for internal consumption only. They do not consider the reactions of other nations in their calculation. Indeed, they seem to be incapable of doing so. 

 

You wanna see what Korean reunification is gonna look like? Look at the German Vereinigung. The Germans still struggle with it, and Germans are far, far better at planning and organizing than the Koreans dream of being. That is no exaggeration. Koreans make no plans until the event is upon them. From what I have seen, the motto of Korea must be 'Planning for today tomorrow!'

 

As for the US withdrawing from Korea and Japan, I believe we could withdraw from Korea. Japan, no. I strongly believe the US needs to keep forces sitting on the Japanese from now until Rapture.

 

The NoKo's actions make sense once you realize that everything, repeat, EVERYTHING they say and do is for internal consumption only. They do not consider the reactions of other nations in their calculation. Indeed, they seem to be incapable of doing so. 

 

You wanna see what Korean reunification is gonna look like? Look at the German Vereinigung. The Germans still struggle with it, and Germans are far, far better at planning and organizing than the Koreans dream of being. That is no exaggeration. Koreans make no plans until the event is upon them. From what I have seen, the motto of Korea must be 'Planning for today tomorrow!'

Plutarch, 

 

I humbly submit to your superior intellect and more nuanced understanding of global politics.  Black and white thinking is great for AM radio but it's all really shades of gray on a spectrum.  

 

I agree that proxy wars are far more likely than the heavyweights going toe-to-toe.  And I do have to admit that while I believe it to be a colossal waste of resources to maintain 12 Fleet carriers I don't have a clue of how much our clout in the world would be decreased with only 6.

 

Further I'm not considering alliances in my statements.  China really doesn't have any significant natural allies currently, but money can buy lotsa friends, especially among the ones who lose no love for the US, especially because of our subservient posture vis-a-vis Israel  (well that's how I categorize our 'special' (read:  one-way) relationship with them) among other reasons.

 

I'm also discounting the possibility of rabble-rousing and opportunistic war profiteering, especially in during the throes of a depression.  Nothing rallies a nation out of focusing excessively on internal dysfunction than a good old fashioned war.

 

I believe we are all fatigued from 10 years of futile and gain-less "nation-building".  We'll rest a spell, but in 20 - 30 years the nest generation will  need to have a go at someone, somewhere for something.

 

(tips king over).