If North Korea collapsed and Chinese troops rushed in to set up a more directly-controlled puppet regime, is this something the US would go to war over?  

 

Yes it would suck for Koreans separated from extended family by the 38th parallel, but I don't see it as our fight.  Hell, I'd rather have China in charge of NK rather than the current dynasty - there would be more stability.

 

 

The Chicoms will use some ancient pretext to press their ownership...maybe something about the people there having slanted eyes and therefore must have decended from the Chinese and therefore are do doubt a rogue breakaway province from some long ago dynasty.

 

Then if we cut our imports of crappy chinese products, counterfeit drugs, lead tainted dishes, poisoned building materials and acid laden shipping materials (my wife got chemical burns handling cardboard boxes of products from China sold at Tuesday Morning while a manager there.  She was sweating and acidic or caustic chemicals in the cardboard burned her) and other stuff we seem to value so much.  The Chicoms will probably claim they have a pretext to go to war much as the Japanese did in 1941.  They will claim they are being backed into a corner and threatened with a meltdown of their US reliant economy, will do something drastic.  One can only hope that faced with the reality of emnity of all their neighbors, Russia, Japan, Viet Nam, India and other powers, Australia and the US, that they might think better of it.  But history has shown that the Chinese are not as predictable as we would hope or like to think.

   Can you repeat your post please. And can you do it in English this time instead of gobblygook.

As I understand it South Korea’s opposition to the Chinese takeover of North Korea is mainly political. The cost to which ever nation gets saddled with North Korea will exceed the cost to West Germany for reintegrating with East Germany.

 

What China probably really wants is to use the North Korea as a bargaining chip in negotiations with South Korea to get the US out of Korea. Whether that will work or not depends on how scared of China South Korea is at the time.

The Chinese are far more pragmatic and care far less about ideology than most people realize.  We got involved in S.E. Asia and Korea because back in the 50s and 60s there was a serious although grossly overstated concern about Captialism vs Communism.  It's abundantly clear to all that Capitalism, being more in alignment with true human nature, has won.

 

China doesn't want to control other people's for Communism's sake, they want to control other territory to get at the resources.  This is why South Korea and Japan have no reason to fear that Chinese troops will be marching through their capitals:  They really don't have much in the way of resources.  Yes there are fishing grounds and off-shore drilling rights but what China, like the rest of the world really needs is hydrocarbons and minerals.

 

Can someone please tell me the risk to the US in real terms, for un-assing Korea and Japan?  I can tell you the benefit:  K and J would have to cowboy-up for their own defense.  And please don't give me this old-skool 'protect the approaches to Alaska' BS.  That may have been valid post-WWII, but it's just plain silly to think that China has a 100 year plan to take over North America by military force.

 

Same goes for SE Asia.  GO ahead, have LAos, Cambodia and Viet Nam.  Lotsa people already there, not much in strategic resources.  And Chinese expansionism will hit a brick wall with Muslim Indonesia, and Australia will always be under the UK/US nuclear shield.

 

The beautiful thing about the geography is that China is hemmed in by Russia on one side, India on the other, and an ocean to it's east.  The real resources they need are not right next door, but in Australia, Africa and the Middle East.  And due to our insatiable appetite for cheap goods (like this computer I'm typing on and the one you are reading this on) they can buy what they need with far less cost and hassle than trying to take it by force. 

  

China is planing it, and does want to hack to get it done 40 years faster. they are not buying all debit / bonds for no reason, its all to force country to use there dollar when buying cheap Chinese goods, well goods.

 

As long as China buys US Treasuries they'll continue to be our bitch. All they're buying is a promise to pay, which in wartime would be worthless. If they dump them, the dollar collapses which hurts them as well. Asian countries demanded they be paid in US dollars when trading with China(I believe that's still the case) because they don't trust Chinese currency. That's a major incentive to play nice with us. Building trading relationships and industry with those who don't trust China will only weaken CHina and they know it. China's meteoric economic rise(and funding its military buildup)has less to do with their system and more to do with our stupidity. But it can reversed by shifting business away from them, removing Most Favored Nation status, we just need the balls to act. 

Dude, step away from the ledge.  The Chinese have ZERO capability to project power, and further they are bounded geographically by powerful neighbors (Russia and India), and by one big-ass ocean.  It may look small on maps, but it's really rather large.  No really.  And troop transports in the open ocean thousands of miles away from air cover are nothing but shark food.

 

Look, they have a very solid claim for Taiwan, yet they don't even have the military capability of popping that zit.   In 5 years they may have one operational air wing on a ski-jump carrier they bought from the Russians.  Even if their navy and air force was 10x the size it is now they still wouldn't have the capability to invade any country of consequence, with the seoul exception of South Korea. 

 

Given that they are the second largest economy in the world, they have a legitimate need and a right to protect their interests abroad so we can't really begrudge them a carrier and a few dozen major surface ships and SSNs.

 

p.s.  Yes they took Tibet and killed a bunch of monks in the '50s and '60s.  Nothing we didn't do 80-100 years earlier, eh?

First off, as long as the US has the 2nd Amendment no army in the world would ever contemplate invasion proper. So any war with China is going to be in their region. The topic is about what would we do if they take over NK and threaten SK. Are we going to war over Korea? Yes if we want to honor our commitments as an ally. Also history has shown you give a bully an inch, they'll want the whole yard. So how do we do push back without causing a nuclear escalation.

 

Given the cost of modern warfare in dollars, it would cheaper to buy off the ruling elite of NK and their army. Play up the one Korea to both populations in propaganda, especially to the NK army. Have a coup, point their weapons north, and ask for SK help. More complex then that, but you get the idea. Let the NK army dictate how Korea becomes one. I think this time they may side with their southern brothers vs the chinese who want to own them.

The Chinese have ZERO capability to project power, and further they are bounded geographically by powerful neighbors (Russia and India), and by one big-ass ocean.  It may look small on maps, but it's really rather large.  No really.  And troop transports in the open ocean thousands of miles away from air cover are nothing but shark food.

 

The Chinese absolutely have the capability to project power beyond its borders. I live close to China and the country I live in is very nervous about Chinese ships in its waters. From Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia to the Indian Ocean to Central Asia, and even to Africa China can project power, soft and sometimes hard power. I have discussed this issue before with you as I recall. 

 

As to its neighbors, Russia and India are not that powerful, and Russia is more of an ally these days anyway, India has internal cohesion and Pakistani concerns. The ocean is big but it doesn't need to be crossed in order for China to "project power". You do realize that power projection is not a "I can invade your country and take your land" strategy. Even the US cannot claim to do this.

 

RightWingCon

 

As long as China buys US Treasuries they'll continue to be our bitch. All they're buying is a promise to pay, which in wartime would be worthless. If they dump them, the dollar collapses which hurts them as well.

 

Not exactly true. The dollar has been in freefall for several years, and China has dumped most of its short-term bonds. The Chinese have also mulled dumping their long-term debt thinking their economy can survive without the dollar, which it probably can.

 

   

Asian countries demanded they be paid in US dollars when trading with China(I believe that's still the case) because they don't trust Chinese currency.

That's not the case, Japan switched to the Yuan recently, Russia did so a while ago, South Korea is probably not far behind already buying Yuans. That's a major incentive to play nice with us. Building trading relationships and industry with those who don't trust China will only weaken CHina and they know it. China's meteoric economic rise(and funding its military buildup)has less to do with their system and more to do with our stupidity. But it can reversed by shifting business away from them, removing Most Favored Nation status, we just need the balls to act. 

You do realize Most Favored Nations (MFN) status just means permanent normal trading relations, and the term was actually discontinued many years ago. Very few of the Asian countries "trust" China when it comes to political issues but they will still do business with the Chinese. The Overseas Chinese far outnumber expatriate Americans in many of these countries. They learn the local languages, build small businesses, and build local contacts. Tough for Indonesia, for example, to stand up to China when 4-5% of its population is Chinese, and controlling a lot of wealth.