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Pages: 1 2 3   NEXT Jerry W. Loper    RE:N. Korea can defeat US   2/16/2005 9:58:38 AM How many wars has North Korea won in the last, say, 50 years?   Quote    Reply NewGuy    RE:N. Korea can defeat US   2/16/2005 10:39:00 PM Quote form the article: "North Korea's main battle tanks - T-62s - have 155 mm guns"... LMOA! T-62s actually have rather old 115mm guns that can't penetrate US M1A1/2 armor at point blank range. Thats only one of the myraid of factual mistakes the article in question makes. That entire site is riddled with articles that are, frankly, wisps of pure fantasy. I can only assume it is run by lunatics or is a joke. NewGuy   Quote    Reply sentinel28a    RE:N. Korea can defeat US   2/17/2005 4:42:26 PM This is great. I'm bored: let's fisk. "North Korea, which can and is willing to face up to the sole military superpower of the world, cannot be called a weak nation. Nevertheless, Western press and analysts distort the truth and depict North Korea as an "impoverished" nation, starving and on the brink of imminent collapse." Kim's PR team must be doing one hell of a job. Thousands of NK refugees fleeing into Manchuria looking for food must be agents provacateur trying to make us think that NK is weak and starving. They must also purposely assign short guards to Panmunjom to make us believe that malnutrition is taking its toll. "Today few nations have military assets strong enough to challenge the US military. Russia, though weakened by the collapse of the Soviet Union, has enough assets to face up to the US. China, somewhat weaker than Russia, too, has strong military that can challenge the US. However, both Russia and China lack the political will to face down the US." Why do I get a vision of a little Chihuhua and a big bulldog hunting down Sylvester, with the little dog going, "C'mon, let's you and me fight the cat, c'mon, c'mon!" "In contrast, North Korea has not only the military power but also the political will to wage total war against the United States. North Korea has made it clear that it will strike all US targets with all means, if the US mounted military attacks on North Korea. That North Korea's threat is no bluff can be seen from the aggressive actions taken by North Korea since the Korean War armistice, most recent of which is North Korea's attempt to capture an American spy plane." Apparently the author is envious of China. Cue the Chihuahua again. "In the morning of March 1, 2003, an American RC-132S spy plane," The correct designation is RC-135S, which the USAF's official website would tell you. "Cobra Ball, took off from a US airbase in Okinawa, and cruised along the East coast of North Korea collecting electronic signals. The US intelligence suspected that North Korea was about to test a long-range missile and the plane was there to monitor the suspected missile launch." Correct so far; this is Cobra Ball's mission. "When the US plane reached a point about 193 km from the coast of North Korea, two MiG-29 and two MiG-21 fighter planes showed up unexpectedly. The North Korean planes approached within 16 m and signaled the US plane to follow them. The US pilot refused to follow the command and left the scene posthaste. The US plane was tailed by the hostiles for about 22 min but let the US spy plane go. There are two key points to be observed here." Yes, indeed. One, the North Koreans weren't trying very hard. (I wonder why.) Two, the USAF pilot acted appropriately. "First, the hostile planes waited for the US plane at the Uhrang airbase, located about 200 km from the point of air encounter. They knew that the US plane was coming. The North Korean planes flew 200 km to intercept the US plane. Did the US plane see them coming? If it did, why no evasive action?" Uh, because it was in international airspace? "After intercepting the US plane, the hostile planes dogged it for 22 min. Why no American planes for the rescue? The US crew must have informed the base of the danger they were in, but no action was taken by the base. If Kim Jong Il had given the command, the MiGs would have shot down the US plane and returned to their base before the US could have scrambled war planes." I agree. Next time the RC-135 should be escorted by four F-15s. "Second, North Korea intercepted an American spy plane flying 200 km from its coast. According to the international norm, a nation's territorial air space extends 19 km from its coast line. The US is the exception and claims air space of 370 km from its coast line; any foreign airplane violating this extended air space is challenged or shot down by the US military." China apparently does as well: the EP-3E forced down in Hainan was in international airspace. Note also that, in 50 years of the Cold War, no Soviet aircraft was ever fired upon or shot down within this claimed airspace. In five years of Operation Noble Eagle sorties to prevent a recurrence of 9/11, no aircraft has been shot down. Sadly, the same cannot be said of American aircraft flying close to Soviet or Chinese, or North Korean, territory. "North Korea's war plan in case of an US attack is total war, not the 'low-intensity limited warfare' or 'regional conflict' talked about among the Western analysts. North Korea will mount a total war if attacked by the US." This should be interesting. "There are three aspects to this war plan. First, total war is North Korea's avowed strategy in case of US preemptive attacks. The US war on Iraq shows that the US can and will mount preemptive strikes in clear violation of international laws, and the United Nations is powerless to stop the US." Note that the author makes no mention of North Korea's preemptive--and for that matter, unwarranted--attack on South Korea in 1950. No mention is made of other nations' preemptive strikes--Israel in 1967, 1981, and 1982; France and England in 1956; France again in 2003 (Ivory Coast), China against Tibet and Vietnam. "Any nation that is weak militarily may be attacked by the US at will. It is reasonable for North Korea to deter US attacks with threats of total war." We usually require that a nation do something pretty bad first--say, attack US citizens, or brutally oppress their own people, or start threatening their neighbors with massive destruction if they don't get what they want. Well, what do you know--North Korea is guilty of all three. So was Imperial Japan and the Third Reich, though we had to be pushed into that one. "Second, North Korea expects no help from China, Russia, or other nations in case of war with the US. It knows that it will be fighting the superpower alone. Nominally, China and Russia are North Korea's allies but neither ally is expected to provide any assistance to North Korea in case of war. Neither nation can or is willing to protect North Korea from attacks by the US, and North Korea alone can and will protect itself from US attacks. This principle of self-defense applies to all nations." Of course, the author fails to note that Russia and China are arguably not run by lunatics. Note as well that it has been North Korea threatening war and mayhem. I haven't seen any statements from the White House or State threatening North Korea with a "rain of fire" or whatever bombast Pyongyang is currently using. "Third, North Korea's total war plan has two components: massive conventional warfare and weapons of mass destruction. If the US mounts a preemptive strike on North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear plants, North Korea will retaliate with weapons of mass destruction: North Korea will mount strategic nuclear attacks on the US targets. The US war planners know this and have drawn up their own nuclear war plan. In a nuclear exchange, there is no front or rear areas, no defensive positions or attack formations as in conventional warfare. Nuclear weapons are offensive weapons and there is no defense against nuclear attacks except retaliatory nuclear attacks. For this reason, North Korea's war plan is offensive in nature: North Korea's war plan goes beyond repulsing US attackers and calls for destruction of the United States." Good luck. North Korea's missiles can, at best, hit Alaska and Hawaii, possibly Seattle. That's if they work correctly, which no scientist of repute can guarantee. I believe I can, however, quite guarantee without scientific credit that Tomahawk cruise missiles and Minuteman ICBMs can and will hit every target north of the DMZ and south of the Yalu. "The US war plan '5027' calls for military occupation of North Korea; it goes beyond the elimination of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction." And the author knows this how? If our war plans are available on the internet, then we really do have a problem with security. "The US military regards North Korea its main enemy and likewise North Korea regards the US its main enemy." My, aren't we arrogant. I always thought we regarded terrorism as our main enemy. (Well, Kim *is* a terrorist, so I suppose this is correct.) "South Korea, too, regards North Korea its main enemy but North Korea does not regard South Korea its main enemy because South Korea is a client state of the United States and has no ability or power to act independent of the US." We have that much power over Seoul? Wow. We're better than I thought we were. "North Korea's war plan is not for invading South Korea but for destroying the US." If that's the case, North Korea's tank and artillery forces are somewhat lacking in range to invade the West Coast. "All nations keep their military capability secret. North Korea is no exception and it is not easy to assess North Korea's military power. The US claims that it knows North Korea's military secrets. The United States collects intelligence on North Korea using a variety of means: American U-2, RC-135, EP-3 and other high-altitude spy planes watch over North Korea 24 hours 7 days a week. The US 5th Air Reconnaissance Squadron has U-2R, U-2S, and other advanced spy planes at the Ohsan airbase in South Korea. In addition, the US has 70 KH-11 spy satellites hovering over North Korea." Again, arrogance. I don't think we have more than 70 KH-11s in the inventory, and I'm sure they are also employed checking out other countries as well. I would imagine one is currently seeing if Mullah Ahmed's wife in Tehran is wearing her blue or black burqa today. "In spite of such a massive deployment of intelligence collection assets, the US intelligence on North Korea is faulty at best. Donald Gregg, a former US ambassador to Seoul and a 30-year CIA veteran, has admitted that the US intelligence on North Korea has been the longest lasting story of failure in the annals of US intelligence. Gregg said that even the best spy gadget in the US arsenal cannot read what's on Kim Jong Il's mind." Insanity always has been a hard read. That's why people still write books on Hitler and Stalin. "US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said that North Korea uses underground optical fibers for military communication and that it is nearly impossible to plant human agents in North Korea." True. "Although North Korea's military secrets are impervious to US spy operations," Impervious? Then why are you so concerned about a Cobra Ball RC-135 in international airspace? Is Kim afraid it was going to disrupt watching his Daffy Duck collection? "one can draw some general pictures from information available in the public domain. a) North Korea makes its own weapons North Korea has annual production capacity for 200,000 AK automatic guns, 3,000 heavy guns, 200 battle tanks, 400 armored cars and amphibious crafts." Based on Soviet and Chinese designs. "North Korea makes its own submarines, landing drafts, high-speed missile-boats, and other types of warships. Home-made weaponry makes it possible for North Korea to maintain a large military force on a shoestring budget." That makes sense. Now can North Korea maintain that military force in time of war, when expenditures of ammunition are always higher than the most liberal estimate, when spare parts are always in short supply, and with American warplanes pounding an already rickety supply system--an event that even Chinese military experts predict is not only possible, but likely? "North Korea defense industry is made of three groups: weapon production, production of military supplies, and military-civilian dual-use product manufacturing." Read "all" industry. "North Korea has 17 plants for guns and artillery, 35 plants for ammunition, 5 plants for tanks and armored cars, 8 plants for airplanes, 5 plants for warships, 3 plants for guided missiles, 5 plants for communication equipment, and 8 plants for biochemical warheads - 134 plants in total. In addition, many plants that make consumer products are designed so that they can be made to produce military items with minimum modification. About 180 of defense related plants are built underground in the rugged mountainous areas of Jagang-do. Several small to medium hydro-power plants serve these plants so that it would be nearly impossible for the US to cut off power to the plants." Tomahawks can't target hydroelectric powerplants and dam spillways? Interesting; A-1s with torpedoes wreaked havoc on North Korean hydroelectricity in 1953. How about North Korea's power transmission lines? Are they hardened appropriately? "b) North Korea has its own war plans" We've noticed that most nations do. "North Korea is mountainous and its coasts are long and jagged. The Korean peninsula is narrow on its waist. North Korea's weapons and war tactics are germane to Korea's unique geography. North Korea has developed its own war plans unique to fighting the US in a unique way. North Korea's military is organized into several independent, totally integrated and self-sufficient fighting units, that are ready for action at any time." This is very true. My next question is: how good are the troops? How experienced are they? How well led are they? Is Kim picking leaders that are militarily effective, or just those who know how to toe the party line? "North Korean soldiers are well indoctrinated" Well, ask a stupid question... "The US commanders admit that North Korean soldiers are highly motivated and loyal to Kim Jong Il, and that they will fight well in case of war. Karl von Clausewitz said that people's support for war, military commanders' ability and power, and the political leadership are the three essentials for winning war. He failed to include the political indoctrination of the soldiers, which is perhaps more important than the other factors cited." Mainly because Clausewitz, having actually fought and observed wars, noticed that men do not fight for political causes, but for the men around them and the man that leads them. All the political indoctrination in the world will not help troops if their political officer forces them into a frontal attack. Russian troops fighting the Germans were not motivated by a love of Stalin or of Marxism-Leninism, but a love of country (which was being invaded) and a wish for revenge. When competently led, they were superb. When poorly led, the Germans tore them apart with a fraction of the forces their opponents had. Napoleon did the same. Political indoctrination has been shown to kill initiative, and without initiative, you lose. "During the Iraq War just ended, the main cause of Iraq's defeat was the low moral of its soldiers. Iraqi soldiers had no will to stand and fight, and they ran away or surrendered without fight." They knew that their own leadership had betrayed them. They also knew that they faced an enemy with air supremacy and technology superior to their own. And not all the Iraqis fled. Many did stand and fight, and some fought well. The Americans and British involved merely fought better and smarter. "Iraqi soldiers believed in Allah protecting them and became easy preys to the US military. North Korean soldiers are taught to fight to the bitter end. In September 1996, a North Korean submarine got stranded at Kangrung, South Korea, and its crew abandoned the ship. Eleven of the crew committed suicide and the rest fought to the last man except one who was captured." Then they didn't fight to the last man. "In June 1998, another submarine got caught in fishing nets at Sokcho and its crew killed themselves. Such is the fighting spirit of North Korean soldiers." Such was the fighting spirit of Imperial Japanese soldiers. You may ask the survivors if it helped them win the war. "One cannot fight war without military preparedness. North Korea's regular army is for offensive actions whereas its militias are homeland defense. North Korea's regular army consists of 4 corps in the front area, 8 corps in the rear area, one tank corps, 5 armored corps, 2 artillery corps, and 1 corps for the defense of Pyongyang, South Korea has 19 infantry divisions whereas North Korea has 80 divisions and brigades." American forces were outnumbered three to one in 2003, and often in 1991. US Marine forces were outnumbered five to one at Chosin Reservoir. Napoleon was outnumbered four to five to one at Jena-Auerstadt and in other battles. Numbers by themselves mean nothing: it's how you use those numbers that matters. Sun Tzu was only the first strategist to say this. "A North Korean infantry division has 3 infantry regiments, 1 artillery regiment (3 battalions of 122 mm rocket launchers and 1 battalion of 152 mortars), one tank battalion of 31 tanks, one anti-tank battalion, one anti-aircraft battalion, one engineer battalion, one communication battalion, one light-infantry battalion, one recon battalion, and one chemical warfare battalion. North Korea's militias consist of 1.6 million self-defense units, 100,000 people's guards, 3.9 million workers militia, 900,000 youth guard units. These militias are tasked to defend the homeland. The militias are fully armed and undergo military trainings regularly." Marching with an AK-47 is not military training. Ill-equipped, ill-trained, and simply ill militias can inflict casualties, occasionally heavy--but rarely win wars alone. "North Korea has 2 artillery corps and 30 artillery brigades equipped with 120mm self-propelled guns, 152mm self-propelled mortars, 170mm guns with a range of 50 km, 240 mm multiple rocket launchers with a range of 45 km, and other heavy guns. North Korea has about 18,000 heavy guns. North Korea's 170mm Goksan gun and 240mm multiple-tube rocket launchers are the most powerful guns of the world. These guns can lob shells as far south as Suwon miles beyond Seoul. The big guns are hidden in caves. Many of them are mounted on rails and can fire in all directions. They can rain 500,000 conventional and biochemical shells per hour on US troops near the DMZ. The US army bases at Yijong-bu, Paju, Yon-chun, Munsan, Ding-gu-chun, and Pochun will be obliterated in a matter of hours." Thank you for making the case for a preemptive strike. Those guns, being underground, are in fixed positions--therefore, they cannot be moved and easily sealed off if their doors are jammed or otherwise destroyed. The last dictator who believed so heavily in the value of poured concrete was Adolf Hitler. He didn't do so well.