|We are rapidly approaching the mid-term elections. The economy has still not turned around and the Democrats are feeling the heat. They continue to blame the poor economy on Bush, but after two years of holding the reins the blame game is starting to wear thin with the voters. The Tea Party movement has galvanized the Conservative base and has forced the Republicans to move to the right. In short, the Republicans seem poised to gain a number of seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
An "October Surprise" is some big event that takes place just before the election in November. It could be some sort of scandal or an international incident that will influence undecided voters a matter weeks or even days before they go to the polls. I would argue that the "October Surprise" in 2008 was the economy. Things had been shaky in the economy towards the end of the summer of 2008, but then the bottom finally dropped out in late September/early October. Up to that point McCain had been gaining momentum, but the economic crisis drove a spear through the heart of the McCain campaign. I firmly believe that the timing of this "crisis" was no accident, and that the media, which was all in for Obama, was complicit.
So what will be the October Surprise for this election? So far the Democrats seem screwed, but I find it hard to believe that they don?t have something up their sleeves. Some have suggested an air strike against Iran?s nuclear facilities, but this could be a risky move for Obama because it could have the opposite effect by alienating the anti-war Liberal base. Presidential decrees declaring amnesty for illegal aliens or repealing ?don?t ask, don?t tell? will pretty much deliver the elections to the Republicans, so those seem unlikely.
I?m at a bit of a loss as to what the October Surprise will be this year. What do all of you think it will be?