StrategyPage's Prediction Market

"Many minds make quick work of uncertainty."


Market | Past Predictions | Your Portfolio | Leader Board | Submit An Event | Instructions | Feedback

Event: Obama gets a primary challenge.
Expires: 06/30/2012
Created: 12/06/2010
Pro Futures: 240     Value: 2
Con Futures: 245     Value: 1



To buy futures login or create an account.


Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: 1 2 3   NEXT
ker       12/15/2010 3:53:50 PM
Yes but.  Look for it to be more of a Cindy Shehan type person than a Norm Colman. Superficialy thats great news but...   The next set of people who want to sleep on basement floors for twelve weeks working for a political campain (remember Organize for America before the DNC killed it, stuffed it and mounted it on their HQ wall  could dig a Shehan type.  In the outsider age of internet speach a little lost girl could surprise. 

What Obama needs and has the tools to buy for him self is a crouded feild where lots of challengers divide the oposition of the left and drowned out each others message. Then the friendly press can focuse what little attention the challenges get where it will have the least meaning. Which leaves the challenger to do press bypasing stunts like campouts and "hair peace" sleep in naked press confrances.  

If you know a co ed who looks like Talyor Swift and talks like Norm Chomsky and want to be important have her call me. 
 
Quote    Reply

ker    Lean Mean Forward Machine   12/15/2010 8:37:46 PM
What gets you promoted into the job gets you killed once your there.  And by killed I mean what FDR did to Hover not what Stalin did to Trosky.  Figurative. Hover was a great guy who misunderstood his moment and communication envirment and put his party in the out house for 20 or 40 years.  Thanks for standardizing bolt sizes now go back to Iowa and stop embarassing us. 
--------------------
O won the oval by discrediting the W and MC( Semator McCain) proposals.  Now O is maintaining his viability to retain the oval by ligitamising and implementing the W and MC proposals.  Stim II could have been the McCain plan from the campaine.  Flushing up the unions with walking around cash isn't enough if the ecconomy is stuck.
-------------------
There isn't a second chance to make a first impression.  Opinion on Stim One, National Health and Cap and Trade is set.  O task is not to make middle like them but make them forget them.  He needs a new signal that is so distinked, simple, suprising, clear and repetitive that it turns the broken trouphy accomplisments of the first years in to back ground static and meaningless noise.  Best mesages to that end are falling in love with Bush tax cuts and discovering a passion doing with entitalment reform (defisit commisioin) what Clinton did to wealfare reform.  O could become an oward debt hawk the way he became an ocward war hawk. 
------------------
The tax compromise is like buying 865billion dollors of aditive stimulants so we can all be high for the taxi ride to the Deficit Commision detox and treatment program. 
 
Quote    Reply

ker       12/23/2010 7:07:49 PM
Will some one please tell the DNI how to look a reporter in the eye and say, "I am not prepaired to comment on that subject."  Twisting in his chair like a sheepish 12 year old girl is just embareassing.  Now if he had been funtioning as his own North Korea desk officer for the last 72 hours we cold let him have the job and get a DNI who wants to be a DNI.  Kind-a-like we could find a Comander in Cheif who is into giving "why we fight" speaches.  But back to DNI. We expect republican  to know the cost of a gallon of milk and answers to the Katie Couric/Sara Palin questions.  I expect a DNI to have the press skills to conseal the fact that he isn't folloing a case.  When they ask the wrong question you still need to give them the answer you came to give them anyway. 
 
What is telling is the content of the smoke screen that the administration press office blew out to covert the DNIs retreat.   Sawyer's question was ambiguous.  In other words we don't want out top intel guys dealing with ambiguity.  Nice clean cut and dried clearity will do, thank you.  They also said that he was bussy.  Bussy DNI is not news like saying that a sips capton is sober better not be worthy of mention in the ships log.  They said that they didn't want to DNI spending his time whacthing cable news.  This admin can always find time to slap fox news channle no matter whats going on.  I like to think that a DNI could inspire confidence even when asked about details he isn't personal breifed.  I wonder what papers he reads? That's a Palin joke. Get it?
 
They said the London case didn't have a homeland nexus.  It wasn't home grown?  This is a tell tell sighn of stove piping and ideological templates getting in the way of intelegence work.  The comment I'm complaining about was made by the administration and not DNI, Clapper himself so he gets a little cover on this one. The ideological template present in press and admin thinking is that every time you mention terrorism you must list diverse terorists to make shure you reinforce the point that white people and christains are terorists too.  Even if you half to make it up find a reason to draw attention towards politicly correct theorys of terroism.  Avoid using the word terroism. Think about defencive fortress America disrution of attacks not offencive transformative disrutions of terroist generating cultures.
 
But the biggest embarasment isn't the lack of a breifing before the press apearance or the lame implications of the attempted coverstorys but the disturbing evidence of how the DNI respondes to new information.  Intelecual manoverability must not be what O looks for in a DNI.
------------
The shelacking has ended.  O is back. This kid has come back. Funny how well O can deal with a GOP majority when the GOP magority hasn't even been seatted yet.  Every thing he passed could and should have been passed before the election.  What he didn't get was the bugget lines to protect O care/national health.  What he did get was the McCain style stim relabled as the W tax cuts compromise.  Then a little more New York focused stim call 9-11 health something or another.  It isn't the slush to fund ratio the NY delegation wanted but it's still billions of dollors into the NY area ecconomy.  GOP put audit requirements in.
 
Don't ask don't tell was a way to raise the spirts of the left.  Something to show that O isn't W all the time.  O also made the move to the middle that we always knew he could on taxes.  Those two things together help for a wile.  Events will continue to unfold.
-----------
Protest against O from the left will occure and make press.  They may tend to be actions rather than primary or third party challenges.  Eggs will be thrown.  Think outside the ballot box.
 
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       12/24/2010 5:17:40 PM
Great posts! Keep updating us! : )
 
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       12/24/2010 5:19:01 PM

Great posts! Keep updating us! : )


That's Ker I mean, not the SYSOP.
 
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       12/24/2010 5:20:27 PM



Great posts! Keep updating us! : )






That's Ker I mean, not the SYSOP.
Though it is a good subject. Anyway Ker's related updates are very interesting.
 
Quote    Reply

ker    Today's Tom Sawyer   1/8/2011 7:13:47 PM
A modern day warrior
Mean mean stride,
Today's Tom Sawyer
Mean mean pride.

Though his mind is not for rent
Don't put him down as arrogant
His reserve, a quiet defense
Riding out the day's events
The river

What you say about his company
Is what you say about society
Catch the mist, catch the myth
Catch the mystery, catch the drift

The world is, the world is
Love and life are deep
Maybe as his skies are wide

Today's Tom Sawyer
He gets high on you
And the space he invades
He gets by on you

No his mind is not for rent
To any god or government
Always hopeful, yet discontent
He knows changes aren't permanent
But change is

And what you say about his company
Is what you say about society
Catch the witness, catch the wit
Catch the spirit, catch the spit

The world is, the world is
Love and life are deep
Maybe as his eyes are wide

Exit the warrior
Today's Tom Sawyer
He gets high on you
And the energy you trade
He gets right on to the friction of the day
-----------
Baby and the bath watter.  National Health bill continues to be a work in progress. Pun.  Some where in it is a baby of caring better for our fellow Americans.  Much of it is dirty bath watter of double counted moeny and meaningless promisses to cut medicare (majic astrix) to creat illusions of sound policy.  O could have done a much better job of producing a workk product that could survive the lose of the house or gotten real GOP suport but he had asses he needed to kick.  It is a hard problem but the bill that he got is really only a punt.  Kick the ball to the GOP and figure out something better latter.  Not a good way to treat the baby he wanted to get reelected.  He wanted to turn the page and talk about new things like taxes.  GOP can keep the last two years fresh in peoples minds by starting duels where Dems talk about the baby and GOP talk about the bath watter.  It's a 46 to 40 win for GOP but much more importantly it makes it hard to reset and start over with a new image.  Kick backs and wavers for campain donations are gifts that keep on taking.
-----------
History is the enemy and we should replace it with our friend ideology.  To sell Tomsaywer to new (public school educated)readers the publishing industry wants to razor blade out Jims first name.  Like thats gona help black people.  Twains artistic intentions are defendable.  The more important idea is that the mistakes (sins dare I say) of the past should be remebered in there context and complexity - not erased from memory or turned into cartoon demons. 
 
I have said that O thinks he is Tom protecting for becky but is infact Huck trying and failing to carry Jim off to death or worce down the river.  The irony of a black running south so he could the worst posible treatment as a run away is a significant part of the book.  Jim's moral carator, the content of his heart, was good compaired to the rest of the people in the book. The white people were prettty stupid in the way they treated him, even when they thought they were braking the rules to help him.
-----------
Counter productive.  I hope Congress member Gabriel Giffords lives.  For all the normal human kindness reasons and for another one that is a little dangerious to mention.  Think of Lincon at Getteburg where all those dead bodys made a great soap box.  We have death deflation and it takes fewer dead to build a soap box today.  This is cruel to say but true. People are already positioning to "own" this soap box.  Some carefuly pretend to not make up their minds yet about who is to blaim. If Giffords returns to public life she has some power to influence who uses the soap box created today.  That means she may chose to prevent Ted Rall (Anti-American Manifesto writer) from making too much retorical use of her blood and the deaths there related.
 
Conspiracy!  May I sujest three catigorys of  hate crime killers.  First is mindless and vaugly imitates other killings and thinks movie stars will love them afterwards.  The second is direct and shoots a women because he dosn't like women.  The third is stratigic and makes a realistic analisis of the results the killing will have.  If your burning your church down for the insurance moeny burn a cross infront too so that you get paid faster.  You also get donations and other stuff.  No one dares confront you.  They just blaim it on a powerful sha
 
Quote    Reply

ker       1/10/2011 9:31:13 PM
Words like violence                      There's no bread, let them eat cake             
Break the silence                           There's no end to what they'll take
Come crashing in                           Flaunt the fruits of noble birth 
Into my little world                         Wash the salt into the earth
Painful to me
Pierce right through me                  But they're marching to Bastille Day
Can't you understand                     La guillotine will claim her bloody prize
Oh my little girl                              Free the dungeons of the innocent
                                                     The king will kneel and let his kingdom rise
All I ever wanted
All I ever needed                           Bloodstained velvet, dirty lace
Is here in my arms                          Naked fear on every face
Words are very unnecessary          See them bow their heads to die
They can only do harm                   As we would bow as they rode by

Vows are spoken                           And we're marching to Bastille Day
To be broken                                 La guillotine will claim her bloody prize         
Feelings are intense                         Sing, oh choirs of cacophony
Words are trivial                             The king has kneeled, to let his kingdom rise
Pleasures remain
So does the pain                              Lessons taught but never learned
Words are meaningless                    All around us anger burns
And forgettable                               Guide the future by the past
                                                       Long ago the mould was cast
All I ever wanted
All I ever needed                             For they marched up to Bastille Day
Is here in my arms       &nbs
 
Quote    Reply

ker       1/11/2011 4:11:38 AM
The shooter had communications with violent ant-semetic group and found encuragement in a general envirment of overheated political retoric. The anti-semetic group was AQ. The over heated retoric was Democrat anti-war/anti-W. The shooting happened at Fort Hood. In 2004 the Democratic Leadership Comittee put out a bullseye map targeting Republicans.

The profesional left is hearing dog wistles again. They line up their same targets. 

Remember that firing a rifle at the cap and trade bill saved a Dem member of congress. Gun toten photo ops are a critical part of the swing distric Dems survival guide. If we get a new wave of gun control passion it will be a wedge issue spliting the Dem party. Just when O thought National health was going to be mercifuly pulled off the front page by the call to be uniters and not deviders his own profesional left crys gun control. Clinging to their guns is one of the few things O can aford to talk about less than national health.  Freelance gun control challenges could hurt O in  ...   Pennselvania and Ohio.   
 
Quote    Reply

ker       1/11/2011 3:33:21 PM
?If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun,? Obama said in Philadelphia   http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0608/Obama_brings_a_gun_to_a_knife_fight.html  Politco
 
"That?s exactly what Barack Obama said he would do to counter Republican attacks ?If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun,? Obama said at a Philadelphia fundraiser Friday night. ?Because from what I understand folks in Philly like a good brawl. I?ve seen Eagles fans.?  http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/06/14/obama-if-they-bring-a-knife-to-the-fight-we-bring-a-gun/  Wallstreet Jounal Washington Wire  in 08.
 
".....thats the Chicago way." The Untouchables
 
Even MSNBC was showing the Dems 2004 bulleye map.  The reflexive attempt to explote the tradgity by making it into an object lesson in how Republicans were illigetamet is comming to it inefectual culmanation.
 
 
Quote    Reply
1 2 3   NEXT

StrategyWorld.com 1998 - 2014StrategyWorld.com. All rights Reserved. StrategyWorld.com, StrategyPage.com, FYEO, For Your Eyes Only and Al Nofi's CIC are all trademarks of StrategyWorld.com Privacy Policy