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StrategyPage's Prediction Market

"Many minds make quick work of uncertainty."

Event:	Iraq will become a weak Federal Republic with a strong Kurdish area, a Shi'a area under Iranian domination and a Sunni area that is in chaos.
Expires:	01/01/2011
Created:	05/10/2007
Pro Futures:	595	Value:	2
Con Futures:	637	Value:	1

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Show Only Poster Name and Title Sort in Reverse Order Posted

ker 6/26/2007 4:47:33 PM

Iraq will become a weak Federal Republic with a strong Kurdish area, a Shi'a area under Iranian domination and a Sunni area that is in chaos.
Already this is what is happening. Basra is under Iranian influence. The Kurdish area is prospering and Baghdad is in chaos.

Iraq will become a weak Federal Republic-----This statement is vaugh and very hard to disprove after the prediction date passes. What would it take to show Iraq to be a strong Federal Republic.

with a strong Kurdish area,-------------- The Kurds learn to harden themselves from hurassment/terorism and get on with making a life for themselves. I think this happens.

a Shi'a area under Iranian domination ----------------I want to know the test for "domination." They may be playing Iran and U.S. against each other in some ways but I bet that the Iranians don't feel like they are dominting. (U.S. played France and Briton off each other after the revolution and that didn't mean we were French dominated.) I think that many of Iraq's Shi'a don't even think they need Iran as an insurance policy any more. They are getting acclemated to power.

and a Sunni area that is in chaos.---------------------I don't see a single uniformed Sunni area. If one city or providence is sunni and in "chaos" dose that meet the test for the predition or do all Sunni majority areas need to be so. I think that some Sunni clans may borrow the play book from the Kurds and prosper. Anbar will harden against terror attack and be like the Kurds. Not a lot of chaos. The press sees chaos. Real chaos is harder to maintain than you think.

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