Prediction Market Details

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StrategyPage's Prediction Market

"Many minds make quick work of uncertainty."

Event:	Hillary Clinton will stay in the race no matter who the democratic nominee is (e.g. she will run as an Independent if Obama wins the nomination).
Expires:	11/01/2008
Created:	05/07/2008
Pro Futures:	20	Value:	49
Con Futures:	1015	Value:	1

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ker 5/9/2008 6:54:05 PM

I think that she will work for Dems running for the senate after the convention. If Obama wins she still looks OK. If he loses it turns in to the "I told you so" tour but you can't tell her to go home if she can raise support for other Dems. She doesn't want Obama to get all the credit for the coming victory there. She can also collect favors from current and future Senators. She might run for leadership some day. She can also continue to play the down home girl who cares. A position she never could have gotten in to with out some one like Obama to use as a foil.

The other reason to stay active is it increases the value of her next book deal. She will want to end the book with an up chapter so she wants to look like a player in the general election with a focus on the senate. The millions of dollars she and Bill have loaned to the campaign may get repaid twice. Once by the campaign and again by a book deal about the campaign. It's not as profitable as cattle futures but it will do.

Running as an independent would cost her much more that she could gain.

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