Prediction Market Details

Show Only Poster Name and Title Newest to Oldest

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 NEXT

ker Thank goodness Dem don't have humiliating corruption scandal's like the GOP used to. 12/17/2008 10:13:46 PM

Barack "Imagination at work" "No Drama Or I'll Kick you Out the Plane" Hussein Obama
and

Rod "A Crisis is a Terrible Thing to Waste" "He was Good to his Mother" Israel Emanuel

never liked

Milorad "Smells Around Corners" "2 Nuts 2 Give Testimony" R. Blagojevich.

They just played him out like Attari. When you run the long con you need a way to make sure the mark doesn't come looking for you. A Federal Correctional Complex fits the bill. A lot of IOU's are not going to be honored. It's a staged virgin / whore contrast. But with the pimps looking like the virgins.

The Phone Call that didn't bark in the night.

Barack needed to talk to Blagoevich about the transition and appointment. It was due diligence for both of them. The fact the call never happened proves that Obama knew Blagojevich was going to be embarrassing. Why didn't Obama warn anyone. Why didn't Obama confront Blagojevich publicly? Because they were acting in concert. They were wearing the same cut. Lawyers know that if you get hit by a car that street racing you can sue all the drivers and passengers in the race. You can sue the girl who dropped the start flag and the person who held the money for the bet. You can sue anyone who knew the race was on but didn't call the cops. Obama was holding the bet and now he doesn't half to pay out. Maybe he did call the Feds? (If I'm the prosecutor, I don't arrest Blagojevich until he becomes a flight risk or a suicide risk. I keep collecting co-conspirators and wait till the money is in the ice box. Sweat in the street not the courtroom.)

Blagojevich, we are now told was in a different "faction' of the party and not with Obama. Find me one public statement of Obama telling the public not to trust Blagojevich. Where was the report from Obama to the people about criminal activity under the color of public office. Isn't a Senator a mandatory reporter of abuse of public office? Or was Obama to occupied with cutting down Bush to smell his own party. I guess holding the executive branch accountable means different things when the executive belongs to a faction of your own party.

How many political complaints against Obama were wet blanketed by the influence of the Dem party in Illinois. How much of that influence was carried out by Blagojevich. How much "editorial support" did Dems get for fear that Blagojevich would get the government into a news papers finances otherwise. How many people didn't run against Obama because they quietly hear that Blagojevich might give their state records a "Chicago review" if they did. Joe the Plumbers records got combed and all he did was ask a question. So how much of Obamas success is fruit of the poison tree?

Obama is sad. Obama is teaching the press not to "waste" their question asking anything uncomplimentary. Obama would have us believe that he never heard anything suspicious about Blagojevich. Obama is putting the Lobbyists in their place. He works for the people. That is he works for his gut feeling of the people. He doesn't need any one disagreeing with him about what the people think. That would hurt the people.

Yes. Blagojevich was dirty and Obama was "clean". Thats not factionalism. That division of labor.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe in civility to a point. If another person tells me 70% approval ratings mean not having to say your sorry and that I'm so "the old politics" I might remember some of that, Dan Rather, Scott Ritter, Harry Reed civility.

Quote Reply

ker Reparations? 12/18/2008 5:45:12 PM

If American decided to pay reparations to Native Americans I would have to write a check to myself. My grandfathers father committed the crime against the Blackfoot of marring one of them and giving her lots of babes. Obama is not on the reparations band wagon. There are other people who say those who profit from a crime must pay the victims. So if I was extorting people and giving the money to my daughter or my church and I got caught the government would not let them keep the money just because they might not know how I got it. Barring capital gains on a house I'm not going to distract you with Obama made money and fame from books and law practice (his and Michelle's). Oh, don't let me forget public payroll for elected office. How much of that money dose he make as a member of the Constitution Party? Can you say vanity press? (Admittedly I might underestimate Obama as an author because the "ego project" is not my taste. I prefer Rice as a writer and Obama seams to read her. I say that because of the way he patterned after Reagan and said the GOP was the party of ideas in the 80's. Advice you might find in one of her works. If Rice wrote for medical journals than Obama would write for waiting rooms.)

Jesse Ventura sold some books and got elected latter in life. Maybe Obama could have boot strapped up as a sailor and pro wrestler. He's wire like. Fit. What matters is what he did - Get in with the Democratic party and take work they sent him because they were betting he would pay out for them latter. He did. So he profited because of associations with the party. Now he wants to take all the Glory of the party but compartmentalize all the shame away on some one else. Kind of like a white guy who was so probe of American rail and pretended it wasn't build by mistreated Chines labor.

So who will make it up to those poor people in nursing homes who didn't get public money for building improvements because the party needed a kickback first. Obama better write a check.

Conspiracy, mail and wire fraud, solicitation of bribery. Corrupting appointments to state boards and commissions, state employment, state contracts and access to state funds. Corrupting the press.

Don't forget Children's Memorial Hospital was expected to pay $50K to prevent interference in it's public funding. Obama better visit and tell the sick children he is sorry. (Not like Bill Clinton saying he wishes he knew about Rwanda so he could do something wile we know he had actionable radio intercepts. One cruse missile on on radio station and one press conference would have slowed things down and forced world attention. Just what Bill didn't want.)

Obama should say, "I was a partner in the firm called the Democratic Party. Ignorance can be no excuse. I was only ignorant to the degree that I intentionally neglected my over site duty to avoid criminal copability. These were not victomless crimes. Peoples rights were violated. Government services which I habitually praise were denied. Distrust in the government was fostered. The climate of immunity which my political supporters used to my advantage created oportunitys for all manner of crime and abuse. I call on all people of this state and members of my party to come forward and report crimes by the partys. I will begin my self. I will personally open all party records for FBI review. I will form an internal affairs program in the state and national Democratic party to permanitly prevent repetition of these crimes.

That's what he should say.

Remember that this is not about one crazy Governor who wanted to sell one public office. This is about a ongoing criminal conspiracy (involving both partys) that operates in countless ways day in and day out. Who will care for the people?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This could become Obamas "Gays in the militairy". If shoes keep droping.

Obama has already done the two hardest and most important things to get ellected a second time. He got elected the first time and he aranged to take office during a ressesion. The power of the office and the tendence of the ecconomy to regress towards the mean (get better on it's own) will do wonders.

Quote Reply

ker Can you put a price on peace? 1/20/2009 5:58:20 PM

For getting far too many good Americans killed, blasting the economy apart,

his appalling treatment of captives, provoking an unnessary war, flouting habeas corpus,

violating the city of New Orleans, pervasive afronts to the bill of rights and laws of war

and a insidious expansion of Presidential powers contrary to the American way

the Democratic Party and President Barock Obama

have forgiven President

Abraham Lincoln.

"I hope God is on my side but I must have Kentucky" Lincoln

What ever W did will half to wait another hundred years.

Buy then we will have an Iraqi president and combat helicopters

named after Asian tribes rather than North American ones.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have good friends, wise aware people, who tell me it's a moral obligation tho support President Obama because he will help the poor, unite the country and work for harmony in the world. I'm trying. I want to see those three things happen.

Who dosn't?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After years of slandering American unipolar power in foreign affairs the Democratic party is now celebrating it's unipolar power in domestic politics. Our degree of unipolar power abroad will continue to increase but it will not be a problem any more. How things look depends on where you stand. Their supporters talk about how there is no other hope. "There is," they say, "no Republican calvary riding over the hill to save you." You need to make this "stone soup" President Obama is cooking good because if it fails.....everything will be bad forever.

President Obamas people complain about "urgency fatigue." Urgency has worked so well in the past. I hope he settles in and acts far more like Eisenhower than FDR. Less hyper experimentalist and more steady competency. President Obama got the job by mocking "the ecconomic fundimentals are sound" and "stay the course." The thing that gets you promoted in one rank will get you killed at the next.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Megadeth Peace Sells

video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkHuW3HyXiI words http://www.elyrics.net/read/m/megadeth-lyrics/peace-sells-lyrics.html

What do you mean,
"I don't believe in God"?
I talk to him everyday.
What do you mean,
"I don't support your system"?
I go to court when I have to.
What do you mean,
"I can't get to work on time"?
I got nothing better to do.
And, what do you mean,
"I don't pay my bills"?
Why do you think I'm broke? Huh?

If there is the new way,
I'll be the first in line.
But, it better work this time.

What do you mean,
"I hurt your feelings"?
I didn't know you had any feelings.
What do you mean,
"I ain't kind"?
I'm just not your kind.
What do you mean,
"I couldn't be president of the U.S.A."?
Tell me something, it's still

"We the people,"right?

Can you put a price on peace?
Peace,
Peace sells...
Peace sells...
Peace sells..., but who's buying?
Peace sells..., but who's buying?
Peace sells..., but who's buying?
Peace sells..., but who's buying?
No, peace sells...

Quote Reply

ker The honest servises of Roby B. 1/26/2009 6:16:06 PM

http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/acrobat/2008-12/43789434.pdf Crimanal Complaint I recommend pages 5,6 and 7.(Primary sources how cool?)

http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/12/09/michelle-obama-is-the-specifically-named-individual-on-page-64-of-the-affidavit-submitted-by-fbi/ No Quarter claims that IL Governor knew of favor trading by the Obamas and wanted in on the action.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Blogo is not crazy. Press in the tank for G.E. talk up the crazy angle to smoke screen details wile pretending to cover story.

Blogo is not sincere. He make outlandish claims for a rational and specific reason with out plainly disclosing that reason.

Blogos claims to be like King, Mandela and Gaudi do tell us he misunderstands all three men. They had nothing in common except that they won. To Blogo they are just lefty heroes to pull down from their pantheon and rube himself with. The purpose of this action is to get him self in the middle of another media cycle and muddy up Obamas message. Blogo traps Obama between the hero he is and the contender he used to be. Obama needs clarity on this point.

The message hidden inside the "madness" is for the top players in team Obama and no one else. Blogo is saying, "You can step on me to get ahead but you can never scrape me off the bottom of your shoe." "Only you can help me now but I can hurt you for a very long time." Some of the best political writing ever was done in prison. (Rumors have nixon noted that at the dark bottom.) Blogo has the power to turn the peoples attention in all the wrong directions. The same craft that took him to the top of the state party could bring the party down a few notches. He has the power to distract from the team Obama message. He may very well know details of past criminal actions to which he was not party. Governors do those kinds of things.

Blogos cunning message is, "I'm like you." Blogo says, "We did the same things and our ends are connected." Our butts are in the same sling. Obama might still find a way to do to Blogo and his family as Obama would want done to himself. What Dick Morris has become to the Clintons, Blogo could become to the Obamas or much worse. Blogos court room defense, First Amendment protections, amounts to little more than "please, pardon me."

A pardon would be a long stretch but prosecutors and judges may find all kinds of grace and restraint as the story unfolds.

Quote Reply

ker 1/26/2009 7:17:21 PM

Obama is in strait line arithmetic headed towards a victor in four years. Politics isn't a strait line game.

Lets look at one Obama loses scenario. Call it, "Katrina II" Obama has profited from the impression that Bush (and racism) caused the problems of Katrina. Bush might answer that the best responses were the one he had the most control over, ie the military rescue helicopters. Politically speaking the worst damage to Bush was Katrina.

Obama has mentioned that closing Gitmo looked easier from the campaign trail than from the Oval. He may regret things he said against Gitmo that make it harder to get other countries to take the people he wants off his own plate now. In the same way statements made against Bush on Katrina and opportunities to give Bush political cover and practical help that were not taken may be regretted by Obama as well.

The storm and the less than best sea walls were only a fraction of the cause of the failure. The collection of causes exist in other American locations. So the possibility of another event is real.

Part of the event might be an industrial accident in the wrong place. Let those with understanding reckon the details. I will talk about what the wrong place is like.

The risk areas will be metropolitan areas with police departments who have the espre decor of the DMV counter clerks, a big reliance on on the job training which is useless in a rare event, and ingrained habits of ass covering and scapegoating. The population in a risk area is also part of it's description. Lets say they aren't earning their merit badges in personal fitness, emergency preparedness, communications or citizenship. Verbal skills to work with the Red Cross volunteers who fill out government forms for people may be lacking. Lets say they are more familiar with Jerry Springer than Winston Churchill.

These areas could be communicated on a map overlay of the United States.

If a triggering event affects a risk area you get a destructive cascade. The poorly trained police either go home or huddle together wile waiting for help or do worse. A small segment of the population get big press coverage for misbehaving. Near by populations refuse to let escaping people in. Out side forces who could stabilize the area see the press reports and wait for reinforcements or for some one else to do it. Large numbers of middle rank cival servants, who have an even worse case of on the job training than the police, spend time planning their explanation of why it wasn't their job to respond. The plan for who is so post to respond is pulled out so that people can argue about what it means.

If you want good responses in emergency you need to build muscle memory. That takes repeated and realistic training. That takes time, personnel and money. That takes commitment and vision that mostly only exist after it's too late. NY and Miami are not like this. New Orleans was. Their muscle memory was all about ready, blaim, retire.

Obama has an opportunity Bush never had. If Bush had gone to talk to some groups the only question before before hand would be how skillfully they executed the ambush. Did they set up the news story, "No, Bush just really is that dumb and heartless" or did they skip the guile and just paint his limo with rotten eggs. Obama can talk to police unions and others about building real response capability. It might pay dividends if he dose.

Quote Reply

ker 1/27/2009 7:43:31 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epQMETGgc3k youtube 14 yr old cop.

Whats black and white and sleeps two? A Chicago patrol car. What were they doing for five hours?

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/video/?clipId=3375658&clipFormat=flv&topVideoCatNo=92454 8:50min briefing from CPD

I do not mean to say that the Chicago Police Department is like the broken departments I described above. I do think this demonstrates a lake of attention to detail.

When a Western European youth flew a small plane into Red Square it prompted political change in the Soviet Union. Could some one use this event to get serious about American government culture? To be sure the is just a sick canary and not a collapsed mine.

Obamas wants uniformed government officials thinking like "strategic corporals." He needs them acting in the clearly understood interest of the nation. Logical arguments over where the buck stops won't matter. The public opinion is that the guy in charge should conect the dots before anyone else.

The people who did not notice the missing gun and star should remember that next time it may be much worce. Rather than a fan it could have been a profesional bad guy or person "going postal." Those stories go to White House press confrences

Quote Reply

ker 1/27/2009 8:12:27 PM

http://taxingtennessee.blogspot.com/2009/01/bailout-begins-descent-into-corruption.html Who is Barney Frank and what is he doing with our money?

The purpose of the stimulus is not to help hurting Americans. It is to help win future elections. Spending now will set the political battle ground for the future. Blogo was after the Trib to change it's editorial stance toward him. Banks can be motivated to give favors to friends and with hold them from enemy. Just like giving an alderman a box of smokes to get a ticket fixed you can give Barney Frank a campaign donation to get a loan? If corporations want to get smooth access to finance they better straiten up and fly left and that means keeping their press property, newspapers ect, in formation.

"I have this [explicative] valuable thing..." It's 12 million stimulus dollars and I'm just not going to give it to someone for nothing.

In the same way we don't want the IRS hitting companies that don't support politicians we also don't want the stimulus

bill(s) helping companies that do help politician in return.

Conservatives are saying that the new deal didn't work. They are wrong it worked very very well. It's purpose was to make FDR president for life and give the Dems congress for decades to come. Making the Great Depression worse was just a tactical maneuver on the way to political victory.

http://blogs.rockymountainnews.com/rockytalklive/archives/2008/12/your_tax_dollars_at_work_baile.html More fun with barney quote at the end.

Quote Reply

ker 1/28/2009 11:29:18 PM

How dare those commercial banks, hedge funds and investment banks pay moeny that congrass demanded of them. Isn't it conforting to know that the Dems never took any of that moeny?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Insert Blogo joke here.

He mentioned that he thought Obama had promised Hillary 10 million dollors in fundraising to get her out of the race. Blogo implyed that it was the same kind of moeny for political favor the was being impeached for. Obama wasn't sticking up childrens hospitals as far as we know. Obama might have benefited from party moeny that was raised by others but that's different.

This is more of, "You can step on me but you can't scape me off your shoe." Blogo is threatoning to keep this up unless he gets some favorable deals for him self and his family.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have a problem with Elected officials who complain about people who give them moeny. The congress demands the moeny for protection from goverment or favors from goverment. Then it blaims the victom.

This bad bank idea is bad indead. It has bribe mill writon all over it. The goverment would buy assets many of which are exotic and imposible to price from banks at inflated prices desighned to subsidise the banks. The banks are still giving campain donations to the congress that is oversiting the deals. Boy do they get angry if they don't get oversite. So I'm not even going to think about congress members asking banks to hire their friends and wives and girlfriends.

You can run a pump and dump on the shares of the banks or on the underling assets. A member could threaton to not work with a bank because their airplanes are french, deflate the banks share price long enough to buy in with his own moeny and then changes his public opinion creating the oportunity to cash out with profits. For this to really work you need to launder the transactions so you can conseal your involvement. There are thosands of ways to play.

If Obama cuts in and desighns a program with out lots of oportunitys for congress to pick winners and lossers congress may delay the deal. A cut in all corprote income taxes helps the ecconomy but it much harder to game for personal profit. If congress lets the degenarate gamblelares in congress go chassing their losses with more of the peoples (Republic of Chinas) moeny he could look like a big fool in 12.

One of the biggest problems with the resent ecconomic practices was that people got to play with out putting their own skin in the game. They got payed for selling the lone but didn't lose any moeny if it didn't get payed back. So they started lending 110% of the value of the house to people who didn't have proff of employment. Then they sold the loans. It was conterfitting of bonds.

Another way to play the game with out putting in your own skin is to get elected to congress. Obama is talking about responcibility. If he papers over the bad faith actions of the goverment it will be hard to tell the voters it wasn't his job to put congrasmen in jail. Thats another way he could be a one termer.

Quote Reply

ker 2/3/2009 5:49:31 PM

Please allow me to revise and extend.

Obama claims to be a different kind of leader. I would like to consider a scenario in which he becomes a one term leader. This particular patter of events has less than a 50% chance of occurring. Think of it as a risk assessment more than perdition.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Are we different yet? Are we different yet?

I don?t feel different.

What we see is Pelosi tapping years of pent up liberal demand and the Republicans doing what they can to keep it pent. They protest. Now that cons have regained the power to protest government action the Dems might wish they had left a few pet RINOs standing in the House.

Lets make a deal you can?t refuse is still the game in the Peoples House. It?s too urgent, big, complicated to read let alone understand. If there were one evil habit I could remove from U.S. government it would be, ?Don?t worry they?ll never read all this.? They write bills in style and organization that prevents people from having strong feelings about it or even bothering to read beyond the bumper sticker title. Then they hate talk radio for translating bills in human language.

The de-stimulious bill is old time politics. I won?t look at what your take and you won?t look at mine. Look for ?log rolling? where people vote for the whole monstrosity because a few of the earmarks are theirs. No one will ever find all the Christmas presents House Dems wrapped for them selves under this big stinky tree. Some speculate that they put extravagances in so Obama could look like an in control powerful moderate when he takes them out.

Quote Reply

ker a rather different platform 2/3/2009 8:48:14 PM

http://www6.lexisnexis.com/publisher/EndUser?Action=UserDisplayFullDocument&orgId=574&topicId=100007214&docId=l:919736802&start=3 Lexisnexis

SHOW: FOX NEWS SUNDAY 9:00 AM EST

February 1, 2009 Sunday

WALLACE: And we're back now with Brit, Mara, Bill and Juan.

Well, we have now found out that former senator Tom Daschle joins the roll -- let's put up the figures. He failed to pay more than $128,000 in taxes, [snip/asking for grafic] involving unreported consulting fees, questionable charitable contributions, and a car and driver that he had free use of.

And on another matter, he was paid $220,000 for speeches to health groups he would have impact on as secretary of health and human services.

So, Bill Kristol, is his nomination in trouble? And if not, should it be?

KRISTOL: It should be, and I actually think it is. I know everyone says, "Oh, senatorial courtesy, there's no way his colleagues will vote him down." This is really outrageous.

I mean, Geithner was outrageous but he persuaded people somehow that if he weren't treasury secretary the world would end.

No one thinks, with all due respect to Tom Daschle, that if he's not health and human services secretary the world would end.

I mean, he is now --he's a limousine liberal who doesn't even pay taxes on his limousine. It's a perfect -- it is a perfect embodiment of inside-the-Beltway arrogant, you know, behavior, and I think the Obama -- President Obama, who ran on a rather different platform -- I wonder whether this nomination can survive.

WALLACE: And the interesting thing is, as opposed to Geithner, who let the Obama team know before he was formally named so at least there was -- they knew what they were getting, apparently Daschle delayed and didn't let the Obama team know until well after he had been named secretary of health and human services. That can't please them.

WILLIAMS: [snip] ...people are going to say, "Well, how can you do that? How can you approach something as controversial as health care reform and expect that you are going to be trusted by both sides, when these people have been putting money in your pockets?"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The highlighter in the previous quote is mine.

Well "a rather different platform" indeed. Daschle gave Obama his donor lists early. Important seed money for some one aspiring to a national organization. Before Iowa there was the money primary. Before the money primary this year the Dems had the Senate primary. Daschle was huge as an asset in keeping super delegates open to and then committed to Obama. Daschle may have been the most important asset for taking brand Obama national. (Pelosi was big as well. She may be as unhappy with Obama as he is with her.)

Daschle wanted Obama in a big way. Was that because Daschle is a post partisan, good government, youth culture kind of guy? No. Obama was the biggest stick Daschle could find to ram in W's eye. Daschle is partisan. I know partisanship is in the eyes of the victims. I also remember how Daschle ended his Leadership in the Senate. He dose to.

This is Obama, new initiative mired in old friction. He doesn't want to be new window dressing for the kids wile Reed and Pelosi and the gang run the same old game in his historic shadow. If wishes were horses beggars would ride. What Obama gets is a nasty surprise every few days. Daschle didn't think taxes would matter? He thought the GOP wouldn't question his wife's income? Maybe the plan Obama is in flux.

The new purple Democrats are not a majority. The new Obama Democrats pulse the old Pelosi Democrats are a majority. Can y

Quote Reply

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 NEXT

StrategyPage's Prediction Market