| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.78 | 2.27 | 500 CON | 1,137.48 |
Con
Lose | Major combat operations begin in Iran in 2005 after evidence suggests development of nuclear weapons, and plans to use them against Israeli and/or American interests in Mid-East. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 100 PRO | 180.15 |
Con
Win | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 300 CON | 579.71 |
Con
Lose | The US begins covert military strikes against Baathist camps and leaders in Syria. | Terrorism | 12/10/2005 | 1.49 | 3.03 | 50 PRO | 74.67 |
Con
Win | Iraq Al Qaeda leader Zarqawi is killed or captured prior to the January election. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 1.89 | 2.12 | 100 CON | 212.29 |
Con
Lose | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 350 PRO | 4,142.49 |
Pro
Lose | The Montreal Expos do NOT move to Washington D.C. in 2005. | Sports | 4/17/2005 | 6.99 | 1.17 | 200 CON | 233.36 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in Italy or against a major Italian target abroad. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 2.43 | 1.70 | 300 CON | 510.52 |
Con
Win | Carlos Beltran will be signed by the New York Yankees before March 1, 2005. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 400 CON | 499.98 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 50 PRO | 66.28 |
Con
Win | Pittsburgh Steelers win Superbowl. | Sports | 1/23/2005 | 4.10 | 1.32 | 700 CON | 925.75 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Asia tsunami and related diseases exceeds 200,000. | World | 1/20/2005 | 1.19 | 6.18 | 100 PRO | 119.30 |
Con
Win | The Indianapolis Colts Win Superbowl XXXIX | Sports | 1/16/2005 | 4.28 | 1.31 | 700 CON | 913.64 |
Pro
Win | Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) will win the Palestinian presidential election held on January 9th, 2005. | Middle East | 1/10/2005 | 1.04 | 26.72 | 50 PRO | 51.94 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 50 PRO | 50.95 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 8.10 | 1.14 | 100 CON | 114.08 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 6.86 | 1.17 | 50 CON | 58.53 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.08 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 55.93 |
Con
Win | If George Bush wins the election he will dramatically increase the military presence in Iraq in an effort to bring the war to a conclusion. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.80 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 53.91 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 500 CON | 624.88 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.09 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 50 PRO | 57.60 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.45 |
Con
Win | Breakaway republic from Indonesia | World | 1/4/2005 | 45.89 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 51.11 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.80 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.34 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.27 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 55.94 |
Con
Win | Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq. | Terrorism | 12/30/2004 | 98.59 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.51 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 50 CON | 52.58 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.35 |
Con
Win | Another hurricane (Category 1 or higher) will strike Florida this hurricane season. | US | 12/6/2004 | 44.04 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 51.16 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 20 PRO | 20.28 |
Con
Win | Scott Peterson will be found NOT GUILTY of murdering his wife and unborn child. | General | 11/12/2004 | 11.33 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 54.84 |
Con
Win | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 750 CON | 1,444.97 |
Con
Win | National League Team wins 2004 World Series. | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 5.16 | 1.24 | 67 CON | 83.12 |
Con
Win | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 31 CON | 80.50 |
Pro
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will hit $53 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 1.04 | 25.17 | 750 PRO | 781.02 |
Pro
Win | George W. Bush is re-elected. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.38 | 3.66 | 1250 PRO | 1,720.00 |
Con
Lose | Kerry revealed before Election Day to been given an Other-than-Honorable or Dishonorable Discharge from the U.S. military during the Vietnam War | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.75 | 1.27 | 500 PRO | 2,374.77 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EDT on Wednesday, November 3rd, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 437 CON | 753.90 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in the United States or against a major American target abroad. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 150 PRO | 214.09 |
Pro
Win | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 1150 PRO | 3,686.59 |
Con
Win | The Minnesota Twins win the 2004 American League Championship Series. | Sports | 10/18/2004 | 3.22 | 1.45 | 150 CON | 217.70 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in Europe. | Europe | 10/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.36 | 250 PRO | 935.57 |
Con
Lose | Terrorist attack in Greece by outside (non-Greek) group(s) during the Olympic Games. | Terrorism | 8/30/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 100 PRO | 204.45 |
Con
Win | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 500 CON | 1,131.09 |
