| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Obama administration is successful in closing GTMO detention facility and transfereing all detainees off island within one year per exeutive order signed 16 NOV 08. | Terrorism | 11/17/2009 | 164.00 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.23 |
Con
Win | Leon Panetta resigns as the head of the CIA. | US | 11/1/2009 | 12.13 | 1.09 | 200 CON | 217.97 |
Con
Win | Sino-US Flare-up | China | 10/30/2009 | 17.13 | 1.06 | 200 CON | 212.40 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il will be replaced by a Pro- Chinese "North Korean" Government | China | 7/1/2009 | 28.16 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 311.05 |
Con
Win | A free floating anti-ship navel mine is encountered in waters off Somalia. The mine may be improvised. | Terrorism | 6/30/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 400 CON | 400.00 |
Con
Win | Prior to Iranian election, low-budget Straight of Hormuz incident created by Iranian RG elements to prop oil prices, help Ahmadinejads poll #s. | Middle East | 6/9/2009 | 6.40 | 1.19 | 200 CON | 237.07 |
Con
Win | A nuclear attack will be carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran against the State of Israel. | Terrorism | 4/1/2009 | 31.36 | 1.03 | 700 CON | 723.05 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be an invasion of Taiwan by China. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a conflict between North and South Korea. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Thye next presidents first crisis will be a war between Iran and Israel. | US | 3/21/2009 | 9.26 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 224.21 |
Pro
Win | Iran will not use nukes on Israel. | Middle East | 3/20/2009 | 1.23 | 5.36 | 100 PRO | 122.92 |
Con
Win | One of the Big three automakers will cease to exist. | US | 3/1/2009 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 500 CON | 581.83 |
Pro
Lose | Benjamin Netanyahu elected next Israeli Prime Minister | Middle East | 2/23/2009 | 1.35 | 3.84 | 200 CON | 767.16 |
Con
Win | The United States or Israel will destroy Iran''s nuclear facilities before 2/1/09 driving oil on the spot market over $200. a barrel. | Middle East | 2/1/2009 | 20.75 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.06 |
Con
Win | USA or Israel will bomb Iran's Nukes | Iraq | 1/1/2009 | 1.85 | 2.17 | 300 CON | 651.61 |
Con
Win | Cuba's offshore oil fields will prove to be a lot larger than previously thought. Putting it in the worlds top ten reserves. | World | 1/1/2009 | 4.42 | 1.29 | 100 CON | 129.26 |
Con
Win | Dow Jones average will close below 6000` | US | 1/1/2009 | 3.78 | 1.36 | 600 CON | 815.55 |
Con
Win | Iran will launch a nuclear attack against Israel | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 312.57 |
Con
Win | Osama bin Laden will be killed by the end of 2008 | Terrorism | 1/1/2009 | 157.20 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.64 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro overthrown in coup d''etat U.S. blamed | World | 1/1/2009 | 9.60 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 111.63 |
Con
Win | The Chinese Navy will lose a warship or submarine due to a major accident by 12/31/2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 10.57 | 1.10 | 200 CON | 220.91 |
Pro
Win | Rafale fighter will have secured no foreign purchase contract(s) prior 01-Jan-2008 | Europe | 1/1/2009 | 1.20 | 5.92 | 200 PRO | 240.68 |
Con
Win | The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close the 2008 year above 11,000 | US | 1/1/2009 | 862.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.23 |
Con
Win | China will have a fixed-wing aircraft carrier operational by the end of 2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 206.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.49 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2008. | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 8.37 | 1.14 | 50 CON | 56.79 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney does not finish 2nd term. | US | 1/1/2009 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 200 CON | 251.70 |
Con
Win | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 100 CON | 134.59 |
Con
Win | Bush suspends Presidential elections / Martial law declared. | US | 12/19/2008 | 142.86 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.41 |
Con
Lose | The United States and Iraq fail to reach a security agreement that authorizes the US to maintain its troops in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/28/2008 | 4.01 | 1.33 | 100 PRO | 401.00 |
Con
Lose | Republicans lose at least 25 seats in the House of Representatives. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.56 | 2.79 | 100 PRO | 156.00 |
Con
Lose | Democrats increase their number of seats in the US Senate by 3. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.29 | 4.50 | 100 PRO | 128.55 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will vote to re-instate a military draft before the 2008 elections | US | 11/5/2008 | 35.46 | 1.03 | 300 CON | 308.71 |
Con
Lose | Rep. John Murtha loses his seat to challenger Bill Russell. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.00 | 430.00 | 100 PRO | 100.23 |
Con
Win | Barrack Obama is found to have more than $10 million in illegal campaign donations and does not win the election (either resigns or loses) due to the worst political scandal since Watergate. | US | 11/4/2008 | 31.33 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.30 |
Con
Win | Iran will attack Iraq, during the same time as America is drawing down troops from Iraq. | Middle East | 10/31/2008 | 64.69 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 203.14 |
Con
Win | The city of Atlanta, Georgia will run out of drinking water in 2008 | US | 10/31/2008 | 103.50 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 302.93 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro captured in Cuba and brought to the U.S. on outstanding drug smuggling warrants | World | 10/15/2008 | 13.00 | 1.08 | 400 CON | 433.35 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin drops out as McCains runnning mate. | US | 10/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 300 CON | 300.00 |
Con
Win | Rudolf Giuliani will be nominated as the Repeblican candidate for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 3.07 | 1.48 | 200 CON | 296.82 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 77.83 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 303.90 |
Con
Win | Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee will be the Republican presidental nominee for the 2008 presidential election. | US | 9/9/2008 | 50.19 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 102.03 |
Con
Win | Fred Dalton Thompson will be the Republican nominee for the 2008 Presidential election. | US | 9/5/2008 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 200 CON | 242.66 |
Con
Win | Charlie Crist will be the republican VP nominee. | US | 9/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Obama will choose Al Gore as his running mate. | US | 8/31/2008 | 31.85 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.62 |
Con
Win | The 2008 Democratic Presidential ticket will be either Obama / Clinton or Clinton / Obama | US | 8/31/2008 | 183.00 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.10 |
Pro
Lose | Obama is nominated as the Democratic candidate for President | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.33 | 4.00 | 300 CON | 1,199.48 |
Con
Win | Obama picks Christine Todd Whitman for his VP slot. | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | Baharain King His Majesty Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be attacked and badly hurt in veciuos attack, forcing him to move into exille. | Middle East | 8/31/2008 | 27.37 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.59 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 400 CON | 445.55 |
Con
Win | There will be another major terrorist attack successfully carried out in the United States. | Terrorism | 7/1/2008 | 10.00 | 1.11 | 306 CON | 340.00 |
Con
Win | Israel will declare its intention to withdraw from, at least, 80% of territories it occupied in 1967 six day war. | Middle East | 6/5/2008 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 300 CON | 402.21 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will have firm orders for at least 650 787 Dreamliners (all models) before the delivery of the first aircraft in May 2008. | Sci/Tech | 3/8/2008 | 1.01 | 79.00 | 200 PRO | 202.56 |
Con
Lose | Karl Rove will lose his White House job. | US | 2/3/2008 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 100 PRO | 219.93 |
Pro
Win | Gov. Mike Huckabee wins Iowa Republican Presedencail caucuse. | US | 1/14/2008 | 1.03 | 30.40 | 200 PRO | 206.80 |
Pro
Lose | The number of civilians killed in Iraq in 2007 will be higher than 2006 | Iraq | 1/11/2008 | 1.29 | 4.47 | 300 CON | 1,340.76 |
Pro
Lose | The number of US military personel killed in the Middle East will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | Middle East | 1/11/2008 | 1.53 | 2.87 | 200 CON | 574.97 |
Con
Win | Ron Paul stuns Republican opponents by winning New Hampshire Primary | General | 1/11/2008 | 13.65 | 1.08 | 200 CON | 215.82 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will sell at least 60 B787 aircraft [firm orders only] between 1/1/2007 and 12/31/2007. | General | 1/11/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 PRO | 200.00 |
Pro
Win | The number of Western military personel killed in the Afghanistan will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | China | 1/11/2008 | 1.54 | 2.85 | 200 PRO | 308.24 |
Pro
Win | Barack Obama wins the Iowa Democratic Caucus | US | 1/10/2008 | 1.32 | 4.10 | 150 PRO | 198.34 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe or his followers publicly state that they have killed a catholic priest or other member of a catholic religious order. | World | 1/8/2008 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.60 |
Con
Win | Any military aircraft of any nation shot down deliberately in air-to-air combat by any other nation. | World | 1/8/2008 | 14.41 | 1.07 | 300 CON | 322.36 |
Con
Win | A Najif type battle occurs in Basra when Muqata Al-Sadar again defies the iraqi government. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 225.73 |
Con
Win | Iran will have a nuclear tipped missle that could reqch Israel | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.98 | 1.51 | 200 CON | 301.07 |
Con
Win | Iraq assumes responsibility for its own security. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 13.40 | 1.08 | 200 CON | 216.13 |
Con
Win | The S&P will be over 1600 by the last day of this year. | US | 1/8/2008 | 353.00 | 1.00 | 300 CON | 300.85 |
Con
Win | The S&P 500 will be 1350 or lower on December 31, 2007 | US | 1/8/2008 | 8.64 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 226.19 |
Con
Win | The national median home value will rise from 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2007 | US | 1/8/2008 | 4.67 | 1.27 | 200 CON | 254.46 |
Con
Win | US fighters scramble to intercept Russian bombers approaching CONUS | Russia | 12/4/2007 | 8.04 | 1.14 | 200 CON | 228.42 |
Con
Win | The United States will deploy American soldiers to the Darfur region of Sudan, as part of a UN approved peacekeeping force. | World | 12/4/2007 | 130.35 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 302.32 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Conduct a White House Makeover. Conservatives Purged. Cheney And At Least Rice Will Be Gone To Purchase Peace With Democrats. | US | 11/29/2007 | 61.82 | 1.02 | 400 CON | 406.58 |
Con
Win | Turkish F16 will be shot down by Greek Air Force. | Europe | 11/29/2007 | 17.14 | 1.06 | 150 CON | 159.29 |
Con
Win | Terrorists Blow Up Euro Disney. Kill hundreds of children. Muslim Group claims responsibility. France makes massive political shift towards America and Europe on War in Middle East | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 256.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.78 |
Con
Win | John Bolton keeps his post as US Ambassabor to the United Nations. | US | 8/6/2007 | 15.95 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 213.38 |
Con
Lose | Segolene Royal will be elected President of France. | Europe | 8/6/2007 | 4.84 | 1.26 | 200 PRO | 968.39 |
Con
Win | India will attack millitant outfits in pakistan occupied kashmir, thereby beginning the World War 3 by 01-03-07 | Terrorism | 8/6/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Sectarian clashes in Lebanon end in civil war. Syria enters the country and install an Iran-backed military occupation. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 334.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.60 |
Con
Lose | The 15 UK servicemen siezed by Iran in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, will still be held as of 4/10/07. | World | 8/6/2007 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 400 PRO | 954.50 |
Con
Win | UPS will cancel its A380F order leaving Airbus without any customers for the A380. | General | 8/6/2007 | 5.57 | 1.22 | 400 CON | 487.45 |
Con
Win | Before all US troops have pulled out of Iraq, the country will collapse into civil war and effectively Balkanize. | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 10.42 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 110.62 |
Con
Win | Iraq Reconciliation Deal Package - Saddam Leaves Iraq To Live In Exile | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 13.25 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.08 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran by theend of December 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 83.60 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 202.42 |
Pro
Win | Sen. Joe Lieberman wins his Senate seat as an Independent candidate from Conn. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.08 | 13.02 | 100 PRO | 108.32 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack two souther or western or midwestern American Cities simultaneously | China | 1/18/2007 | 263.90 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.76 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will stage an attack in Washington D.C. against the White House Pentagon or Capitol Building before the end of the year | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 285.52 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.35 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.06 | 19.14 | 400 PRO | 422.05 |
Con
Win | A civil war will break-out in Serbia over the political status of Kosovo. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 9.57 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 223.34 |
Con
Win | Successful or not, there will be an attempt to carry out an attack on American citizens from Canadian soil. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 5.22 | 1.24 | 200 CON | 247.35 |
Con
Win | William Jefferson Clinton becomes the next Secretary General of the United Nations. | World | 1/18/2007 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 50 CON | 57.35 |
Con
Win | The US begins construction of an Isreali style fence along the Mexican-US border. | US | 1/18/2007 | 5.12 | 1.24 | 100 CON | 124.28 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will top $85 or more per barrel by November 30, 2006.
| World | 1/18/2007 | 6.12 | 1.20 | 35 CON | 41.84 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda assasinates President
Bush.
| Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 69.80 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 202.91 |
Con
Win | Internal corruption and violence in Nigeria causes a U.S. intervention. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.19 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 224.42 |
Con
Lose | Arnold Schwarzenegger will NOT be re-elected Governor of California. | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.91 | 1.52 | 200 PRO | 581.71 |
Con
Win | United Kingdom will withdraw from the F35 JSF program. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 11.81 | 1.09 | 500 CON | 546.24 |
Con
Win | Diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Venezuela will be severed. | US | 12/30/2006 | 8.55 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 226.48 |
Con
Win | XM8 uses caseless ammo | US | 12/30/2006 | 153.91 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.65 |
Con
Win | The UN Security Council will impose new sanctions against the Iranian government in response to Iran's threat to resume its uranium enrichment programme.
| Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 17.95 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 105.90 |
Con
Win | Assad regime in Syria falls | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 19.39 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.44 |
Con
Win | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.04 |
Con
Win | The three U.S. soldiers charged with murder will be convicted and handed over to an Iraqi courts for sentencing. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 67.77 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 203.00 |
Con
Lose | Evidence will be discovered that elements of Saddam's WMD program were secreted in the Syria controlled Bekaa Valley. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 100 PRO | 176.20 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai will be overthrown in a coup or assassinated. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 10.94 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.06 |
Con
Win | Venezuela will price its oil exports in euros rather than US Dollars. | World | 10/21/2006 | 34.48 | 1.03 | 200 CON | 205.97 |
Con
Win | UN troop strength in Lebanon will reach 15,000 by the end of September. | Middle East | 10/21/2006 | 150.81 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.34 |
Con
Lose | US troop strength in Iraq falls below 115,000. | Iraq | 10/21/2006 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 200 PRO | 528.63 |
Con
Lose | I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby will NOT be convicted of any Federal crime associated with the Valerie Plame affair or subsequent Federal investigation. | US | 10/21/2006 | 1.16 | 7.32 | 400 PRO | 463.28 |
Con
Win | World War 3 Is Coming In 2006 | China | 10/21/2006 | 25.49 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 312.25 |
Con
Win | Israel will retake a large portion of the Gaza Strip | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 14.83 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 214.46 |
Con
Win | the US Congress will vote funding to study the reactivation of the USS Iowa BB61 and the USS Wisconsin BB64. | US | 6/1/2006 | 29.54 | 1.04 | 600 CON | 621.03 |
Con
Win | Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) | China | 6/1/2006 | 15.43 | 1.07 | 70 CON | 74.85 |
Con
Win | The United States will attack and destroy Iranian nuclear facilities by the end of April 2006. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 29.82 | 1.03 | 200 CON | 206.94 |
Con
Win | The next Space Shuttle launch will occur in March 2006. | Sci/Tech | 4/10/2006 | 64.81 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.57 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.35 |
Con
Win | Ariel Sharon loses in a no confidence vote Binyamin Natanyahu becomes Israel's new Prime Minister. | Middle East | 3/12/2006 | 15.42 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 213.87 |
Con
Win | A Democrat filibuster will succeed in forcing the withdrawal of Samuel "Scalito" Alito's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 3/12/2006 | 100.60 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 202.01 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda major attack against Italy during 2006 winter olympic games in february. | Europe | 3/12/2006 | 13.49 | 1.08 | 200 CON | 216.02 |
Con
Win | Fundamentalist Islamic supporters kidnap a local prominent citizien of the USA in the USA and behead him in the USA when their demands are not met. | Terrorism | 3/12/2006 | 8.78 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.85 |
Con
Win | Zarqawi will be captured with help from Al-Zwahiri | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 901.50 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.22 |
Con
Win | Iran stops/restricts oil export and causes significant rise in crude oil prices. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 228.67 | 1.00 | 300 CON | 301.32 |
Con
Lose | Harriet Miers will be confirmed by the Senate to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.47 | 1.15 | 100 PRO | 746.75 |
Con
Win | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 111.45 |
Pro
Lose | Karl Rove will NOT be indicted in the Valerie Plume affair. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.57 | 2.76 | 100 CON | 275.86 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.14 |
Con
Win | There will be another AlQaeda suicide bombing attack in Britain before yearend. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.14 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.28 |
Con
Win | Asian Bird Flu is Red Chinese biowar WMD. | China | 1/24/2006 | 145.90 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.69 |
Pro
Lose | The price of a barrel of oil will top $70 USD. | World | 1/24/2006 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 100 CON | 205.60 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein is featured in a Cheetos or Doritos commercial. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 38.13 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.69 |
Con
Win | A communist country goes to war with a US ally (or America itself). | World | 1/24/2006 | 35.42 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.91 |
Con
Win | Nigeria capitulates and deports Charles Ghankay Taylor of Liberia to stand trial for war crimes in Sierra Leone. | World | 1/24/2006 | 12.12 | 1.09 | 40 CON | 43.60 |
Con
Win | The DJIA will close below 8,500 at least once by 12/31/2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 128.50 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.57 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.10 | 11.14 | 300 PRO | 329.57 |
Con
Win | Major vote fraud allegations in the Washington and Wisconsin 2004 elections finally produce effective reforms.
| US | 1/24/2006 | 11.57 | 1.09 | 200 CON | 218.93 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 500 CON | 515.44 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 208.37 |
Con
Win | Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration Objections | US | 1/24/2006 | 8.25 | 1.14 | 250 CON | 284.50 |
Con
Lose | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 100 PRO | 207.25 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.31 |
Con
Lose | US Army will fail to meet its recruiting quotas for the next six months. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.30 | 4.28 | 100 PRO | 130.46 |
Con
Win | Crude oil will be above $70 a barrel on Nov 1, 2005. | World | 11/10/2005 | 4.88 | 1.26 | 200 CON | 251.56 |
Con
Win | President George Bush's disapproval ratings on the war in Iraq will increase to at least 75%. | General | 11/10/2005 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.86 |
Con
Win | The Iraqi constitution, when put to a vote in October, will be rejected by the voters of 3 or more provinces and not go into effect. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 8.43 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 113.45 |
Con
Win | Chicago Cubs win the World Series | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 91.51 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.10 |
Con
Win | The Iraqi Constitution, when delivered, will implement Sharia and make Islam the religion of the state. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 26.73 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 311.66 |
Con
Lose | John Roberts will be confirmed by the Senate to replace the retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 11/10/2005 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 200 PRO | 400.65 |
Con
Win | Minutemen patroling border will suffer casualties from an attack by Mexican border patrol or MS-13 | US | 11/10/2005 | 21.00 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.00 |
Con
Win | Insurgency in Iraq will increase causing British withdrawal and Tony Blair's resignation | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 104.82 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 302.89 |
Pro
Win | Kofi Annan is still U.N. Secretary General | World | 10/7/2005 | 1.03 | 34.26 | 200 PRO | 206.01 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.42 |
Con
Lose | Self styled head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is captured or killed by coalition-led forces by 1st Sept. 2005.
| Iraq | 9/22/2005 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 100 PRO | 173.15 |
Con
Win | Multiple, simultaneous shootdowns of commercial aircraft by terrorists. | Terrorism | 9/22/2005 | 8.91 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 225.27 |
Con
Lose | The EU will lift the arms embargo against China, despite Administration protests. | Europe | 9/22/2005 | 1.60 | 2.68 | 50 PRO | 79.76 |
Con
Win | A Category 5 hurricane will make landfall in Florida. | US | 9/22/2005 | 16.49 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.46 |
Con
Win | The Republicans in the US Senate will use the "nuclear" option on judicial nominees. The Democrats will make good on their threat of closing down the government. | US | 9/22/2005 | 4.79 | 1.26 | 100 CON | 126.41 |
Pro
Win | Israel completes withdrawal from Gaza Strip, including removal of all settlements therein. | Middle East | 9/22/2005 | 1.27 | 4.64 | 200 PRO | 254.93 |
Pro
Win | The death toll from Katrina will exceed 300 as determined two weeks from now. | US | 9/14/2005 | 1.08 | 14.26 | 63 PRO | 67.75 |
Pro
Win | Space Shuttle Discovery, currently on mission STS-114 MCC, will land safely in August. | Sci/Tech | 8/23/2005 | 1.00 | 217.10 | 100 PRO | 100.46 |
Con
Win | Iraqi Constitution will be approved by Aug 22 | Iraq | 8/23/2005 | 2.80 | 1.55 | 100 CON | 155.49 |
Con
Win | Israel occupies part of Lebanon | Middle East | 8/23/2005 | 70.85 | 1.01 | 129 CON | 130.85 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 200 CON | 270.93 |
Con
Win | President Bush will nominate Alex Kozinski (9th Circuit Court of Appeals, appointed by Ronald Reagan) to replace the retiring Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 8/10/2005 | 16.41 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.49 |
Pro
Win | NASA will launch Space Shuttle Discovery by July 31st. | Sci/Tech | 8/10/2005 | 1.50 | 3.01 | 100 PRO | 149.82 |
Con
Win | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 107.56 |
Pro
Win | New York City will fail in its bid to win the 2012 Olympics. | World | 7/6/2005 | 1.10 | 10.68 | 100 PRO | 110.33 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 300 CON | 328.58 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will conduct aerial eradication of Afghan poppy fields during the 2005 growing season. | World | 7/6/2005 | 9.97 | 1.11 | 200 CON | 222.30 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 103 CON | 143.53 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 200 CON | 210.70 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 53 CON | 54.48 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.02 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 65 CON | 72.35 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 250 CON | 282.78 |
Pro
Win | Bush nominee Paul Wolfowitz gets approved by World Bank Board as next Bank President. | World | 6/10/2005 | 1.06 | 18.58 | 100 PRO | 105.69 |
Con
Win | US forces in Iraq decline to under 60,000. | Middle East | 6/10/2005 | 4.72 | 1.27 | 100 CON | 126.85 |
Con
Win | Syrian troops withdraw completely from Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.21 | 1.83 | 200 CON | 365.16 |
Con
Lose | France will approve the EU Constitution referendum that will be voted on 5/29. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.58 | 1.63 | 100 PRO | 258.24 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.86 |
Con
Win | US sends large-scale stabilization force to Darfur after presidential election. | World | 5/11/2005 | 16.05 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 106.64 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 303.60 |
Con
Win | US bombs the Iranian nuclear facilities to stop work on nuclear weapons. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 11.44 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.58 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.46 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.90 |
Con
Lose | US Army adopts 6.8mm round for its new M-8 assault rifle. Heavier round favored because it is deadlier than 5.56mm round. | US | 4/17/2005 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 20 PRO | 82.88 |
Con
Lose | Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 9.55 | 1.12 | 20 PRO | 191.09 |
Con
Win | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 240 CON | 242.14 |
Con
Win | Israel-Palestine cease-fire collapses within one month. | Middle East | 3/15/2005 | 2.34 | 1.74 | 200 CON | 348.89 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.81 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.64 |
Con
Win | The interem government due to govern Iraq between July 1 and elections next year does not last until elections, but resigns or is thrown out | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 12.32 | 1.09 | 50 CON | 54.42 |
Pro
Win | Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005 | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.08 | 12.86 | 55 PRO | 59.64 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 100 PRO | 132.55 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi elections occur on January 30, 2005 as scheduled with the majority of eligible Iraqis participating. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 100 PRO | 137.93 |
Con
Lose | The UN will declare the Iraqi elections invalid and illegitimate | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 2.74 | 1.58 | 28 PRO | 76.61 |
Con
Win | Leader of the main al-Qaeda cell in North America is caught and found to be an American (born) citizen. | Terrorism | 1/30/2005 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 55 CON | 70.86 |
Con
Lose | US Cancels F-22 fighter. | US | 1/30/2005 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 30 PRO | 207.45 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 224.30 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 111.86 |
Con
Win | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.72 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.19 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 100 PRO | 115.20 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 100 CON | 151.13 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 30 CON | 30.87 |
Con
Win | Breakaway republic from Indonesia | World | 1/4/2005 | 45.89 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.56 |
Con
Win | Revolution in Iran | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 50 CON | 88.49 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 75 CON | 90.05 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 25 CON | 43.58 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 135 CON | 144.01 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 99 CON | 104.10 |
Con
Lose | Scott Peterson will NOT receive the death penalty for murdering his wife and unborn child. | US | 12/22/2004 | 9.34 | 1.12 | 100 PRO | 934.00 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 100 PRO | 101.38 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 125 CON | 126.21 |
Con
Lose | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 50 PRO | 584.55 |
Con
Win | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 25 CON | 64.92 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 50 CON | 60.72 |
Con
Win | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 22 CON | 61.13 |
Con
Win | Homeland Security (FBI, CIA, Etc.) will announce they successfully foiled a terrorist attempt to disrupt the U.S. Presidential Election within one week of the Election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 50 CON | 71.00 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.59 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 203.91 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 64 CON | 66.94 |
Con
Win | Iraqi WMD stockpiles located - in Syria/Bekaa Valley | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 2.77 | 1.56 | 75 CON | 117.32 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 65 CON | 77.27 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in the United States or against a major American target abroad. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 30 CON | 100.22 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 57 PRO | 58.58 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 70 CON | 77.44 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.43 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 127 CON | 129.64 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 50 CON | 58.38 |
Con
Win | Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.63 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.69 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 112 CON | 119.79 |
Pro
Lose | Disclplinary action (of any sort)for the Abu Ghraib incident will be faced by an officer with rank of Brig. General or higher. | US | 9/16/2004 | 1.38 | 3.65 | 20 CON | 73.02 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 25 CON | 27.97 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 50 PRO | 64.70 |
Con
Win | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 25 CON | 56.55 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.69 |
Pro
Win | The Supreme Court Rules that detainees at Guantanamo have the right to appeal to the Federal courts | US | 8/1/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 35 PRO | 86.00 |
Con
Win | John McCain will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 83 CON | 83.00 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Abu Ghraib scandal, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigns. | US | 6/30/2004 | 26.56 | 1.04 | 75 CON | 77.93 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden captured | Terrorism | 6/30/2004 | 1.70 | 2.44 | 30 PRO | 50.90 |
Con
Win | Major terrorist attack on Montreal public rail system prior to 06/28/04 Canadian General elections. | Terrorism | 6/29/2004 | 59.46 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.71 |
Con
Win | Hillary announced as a Vice-Presidential running mate in 2004 election. | US | 6/1/2004 | 11.48 | 1.10 | 30 CON | 32.86 |
Con
Win | USA led troops attacks the city of Najaf in Iraq and kill or arrest Al-Sadr. | Iraq | 4/24/2004 | 61.00 | 1.02 | 40 CON | 40.67 |
