| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Terrorists will kill more than 20,000 American civilians by April 2013. | Terrorism | 4/15/2013 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 300 CON | 379.36 |
Con
Win | Naval Clash in the South China Seas between China and another country. | China | 2/13/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Pro
Win | Regardless of who wins the 2008 elections, there will be no US ratified re-negotiation of NAFTA for that president''s term in office. | General | 1/26/2013 | 1.01 | 88.73 | 300 PRO | 303.42 |
Con
Win | Iran exerts dominance over Iraq, before end of Obama 1st term. | Iraq | 1/26/2013 | 8.76 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.89 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan sign a security and cooperation agreement ending 60+ years of mutual hostility. | World | 1/1/2013 | 5.05 | 1.25 | 60 CON | 74.82 |
Con
Win | US will remove its military from Afghanistan under pressure from the Afghan government. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 64.18 | 1.02 | 400 CON | 406.33 |
Con
Win | Afghan government will pressure the US to remove its military presence from Afghan soil. | General | 1/1/2013 | 7.28 | 1.16 | 300 CON | 347.79 |
Con
Win | A Monthly Average Of US Dollar Inflation Will Exceed A 16% Annualized Rate For Some Month Before Years End 2012. | US | 1/1/2013 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 200 CON | 321.73 |
Con
Win | US to experience Weimar style hyperinflation before the end of 2012. | US | 1/1/2013 | 8.36 | 1.14 | 300 CON | 340.76 |
Con
Win | Germany leaves the Euro. | Europe | 1/1/2013 | 5.28 | 1.23 | 500 CON | 616.92 |
Con
Win | Eric Holder resigns prior to the end of the 1st term of the Obama administration, due to scandal over refusal to enforce the Motor Voter law, or over the New Black Panther Partys voter intimidation. | US | 1/1/2013 | 263.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.76 |
Con
Win | Iran becomes a military dictatorship under the IRGC. No civilian rule. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 3.86 | 1.35 | 100 CON | 134.94 |
Con
Win | Gold hits $2,000 an ounce. | General | 1/1/2013 | 19.31 | 1.05 | 200 CON | 210.92 |
Con
Win | China attacks India by 2013. | China | 1/1/2013 | 27.50 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.55 |
Con
Win | Obama will be the last US president elected under the constitution of 1789 (completed 1787). | US | 1/1/2013 | 20.10 | 1.05 | 200 CON | 210.47 |
Con
Win | Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2012 election. | US | 11/8/2012 | 7.63 | 1.15 | 200 CON | 230.15 |
Pro
Win | Elizabeth Warren defeats Scott Brown for the Mass. Senate seat. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 200 PRO | 268.00 |
Con
Win | States will notify 18-26 year-olds on Medicaid, that their medical insurance coverage is at risk and may be means tested before the November 2012 elections. | US | 11/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | In an effort to shore up his re-election prospects, Obama orders US military action against Iran to take out their nuclear capabilities. | US | 11/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Pro
Lose | Paul Ryan is the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 9.00 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 225.00 |
Con
Win | Marco Rubio is the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Susannah Martinez becomes the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | The Prime Minister has sacked the Defense Chief in Pakistan. The military attempts a coup detat to regain control. | Middle East | 8/2/2012 | 101.50 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.99 |
Con
Win | Stephen Chu resigns or gets fired as the head of the DOE as a result of the Solyndra scandal. | US | 6/30/2012 | 216.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.93 |
Con
Win | War between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran | Middle East | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Military action against Iran. The coalition will be led by the US. This will not include an ground forces, unless Iran counterattacks into one of the neighboring countries. | Middle East | 6/5/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Syria unleashes terror attacks, either by itself or through its proxies, against the Arabian countries (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc.) in the Arab League that have called for the boycott. | Middle East | 3/31/2012 | 21.55 | 1.05 | 200 CON | 209.73 |
Con
Win | War between Turkey and Israel. | Middle East | 3/31/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | War on the Korean Peninsula. | China | 3/2/2012 | 14.65 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.33 |
Con
Win | Massive rioting in North Korea leades to civil disorder. | China | 3/2/2012 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 214.76 |
Con
Win | Janet Napolitano loses her job as a result of Operation Fast and Furious. | US | 2/2/2012 | 4.18 | 1.31 | 100 CON | 131.40 |
Con
Win | Shots fired near President Obama. | US | 1/20/2012 | 2.54 | 1.65 | 200 CON | 329.58 |
Con
Win | Herman Cain becomes the Republican nominee for President. | US | 1/9/2012 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 100 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Michelle Bachmann becomes the Republican nominee for President. | US | 1/4/2012 | 2.42 | 1.70 | 100 CON | 170.42 |
Con
Win | The recently passed legislation, popularly know as "Obamacare," gets repealed. | US | 1/1/2012 | 4.91 | 1.26 | 200 CON | 251.15 |
Con
Win | The United States and Iran achieve a diplomatic break-through, and resume relations. | Middle East | 1/1/2012 | 4.52 | 1.28 | 100 CON | 128.38 |
Con
Win | Vatican calls for a new crusade against extreme Muslim groups | Terrorism | 1/1/2012 | 33.55 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.07 |
Con
Win | NPR gets defunded. | General | 1/1/2012 | 26.67 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.79 |
Con
Win | The fued between Ahmedinejad and Khamenei comes to a head, and Khamenei (or his loyalists) have Ahmedinejad removed in one form or another (ousted from his office, killed, exiled). | Middle East | 1/1/2012 | 4.29 | 1.30 | 300 CON | 391.07 |
Con
Win | The founder of wikileaks, Julian Assange, gets assassinated. | General | 1/1/2012 | 5.11 | 1.24 | 200 CON | 248.70 |
Con
Win | War Between India and Pakistan | World | 12/31/2011 | 7.38 | 1.16 | 100 CON | 115.69 |
Con
Win | The price of gold will hit or exceed $2,000 an ounce. | General | 12/30/2011 | 1.94 | 2.06 | 200 CON | 412.69 |
Con
Win | Civil War in Greece. | Europe | 12/3/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Military coup detat in Turkey. | Europe | 11/15/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin will run for president in 2012. | US | 10/5/2011 | 2.02 | 1.98 | 100 CON | 197.63 |
Con
Win | A western power (the US, EU, UN, or anyone else) comes to the aid of the rebels in Syria. | Middle East | 10/1/2011 | 3.09 | 1.48 | 200 CON | 295.83 |
Con
Win | The Saudi Royal family gets overthrown. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | The Assad family gets overthrown in Syria. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 200 CON | 345.02 |
Pro
Lose | The Libyan rebels (with or without external aid) defeat Khaddafy and his backers. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.15 | 7.75 | 200 CON | 1,550.22 |
Con
Lose | Tim Pawlenty becomes the Republican nominee for President. | US | 8/15/2011 | 1.10 | 11.00 | 200 PRO | 220.00 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State. | US | 7/1/2011 | 59.00 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 203.45 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Nam (the eldest son) gets assasinated. | China | 6/30/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | The government of Iran gets overthrown. | Middle East | 6/30/2011 | 1,177.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.17 |
Con
Win | Turkey leaves, or is kicked out of, NATO. | Middle East | 6/1/2011 | 136.42 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.74 |
Con
Win | Chavez, in an attempt to shore up his Bolivarian revolutionary credentials, invades Curacao. | General | 3/31/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | War in the middle east between Israel and Hizballah, Syria, Lebanon, Iran. Israel may fight one of the listed countries, or some combination of them, including all of them. | Middle East | 3/1/2011 | 118.00 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.71 |
Con
Win | Palestinian complaints about possible resumption of construction in Jerusalem lead to dissolution of peace talks, irrelevant of whether the construction was actually restarting. | Middle East | 2/23/2011 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 300 CON | 330.00 |
Con
Win | Russia will invade former soviet countries | Russia | 2/8/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Large battle between two blue water navies. | World | 1/30/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 300 CON | 300.00 |
Con
Win | Civil disorder in North Korea. | China | 1/2/2011 | 269.67 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.37 |
Con
Win | Iran announces they have the bomb. | Middle East | 1/2/2011 | 266.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.75 |
Con
Win | War in Korea. | China | 1/2/2011 | 90.10 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 303.37 |
Con
Win | Israel launches an air strike against Iran. | Middle East | 1/2/2011 | 34.88 | 1.03 | 200 CON | 205.90 |
Con
Win | Gas hits $6.00 per gallon. | US | 1/1/2011 | 83.20 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 202.43 |
Con
Win | Obamas policies towards Israel cause the current government to collapse, and a government more to Obamas liking to take its place. | Middle East | 1/1/2011 | 10.66 | 1.10 | 200 CON | 220.70 |
Con
Win | Queen Elizabeth turns over most of her official duties to her eldest grandson, HRH Prince William. | Europe | 1/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Obama administration indicts senior elected official for authorizing torture. | US | 1/1/2011 | 23.29 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 208.97 |
Con
Win | usa will intercept a stray nuclear missle and bush will become a national hero despite his declining support as president.because of him we will soon be able to defend ourselves from a nuclear strike. | Terrorism | 1/1/2011 | 22.59 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 104.63 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheive a diplomatic brake through before end 2010 | Middle East | 1/1/2011 | 7.60 | 1.15 | 200 CON | 230.30 |
Con
Win | Civil disorder in Russia. | Russia | 1/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | War between the North and the South on the Korean peninsula. Chinese intervene to restore peace and unite the Koreas under their security umbrella. | China | 1/1/2011 | 1,474.00 | 1.00 | 400 CON | 400.27 |
Con
Win | President Hillary Clinton will order U.S. military forces NOT to intervene when Communist China attacks Taiwan in 2010. | China | 12/31/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Unemployment in the US will officially hit 20% or greater at least once in 2010. | US | 12/31/2010 | 5.50 | 1.22 | 200 CON | 244.44 |
Con
Win | Flight of major advertisers takes Rush Limbaugh off the air in all but a few markets. | US | 12/31/2010 | 12.20 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 108.93 |
Pro
Lose | A Federal judge in Virginia is about to rule on the constitutionality of Obamacare. He will rule that the Obama Health Care Legislation is unconstitutional. | US | 12/13/2010 | 2.86 | 1.54 | 100 CON | 153.66 |
Con
Win | Barbara Boxer is defeated in her re-election bid. | US | 11/3/2010 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 100 CON | 125.00 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least 4 seats in the Senate in the 2010 mid-term elections. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.27 | 4.70 | 200 PRO | 254.02 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least 30 seats in the House in the 2010 mid-term elections | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.82 | 2.23 | 200 PRO | 363.22 |
Con
Win | Democrats retain majorities in both houses of Congress. | US | 11/3/2010 | 10.22 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 110.85 |
Con
Win | Republicans hold at least 50 seats in the Senate after the 2010 mid-terms. | US | 11/3/2010 | 18.62 | 1.06 | 200 CON | 211.35 |
Con
Lose | Meg Whitman wins the 2010 California Gubernatorial election. | US | 11/3/2010 | 2.90 | 1.53 | 200 PRO | 580.95 |
Con
Win | Chavez gets thrown out of office in Venezuela. | World | 9/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Pro
Lose | Sino-Japanese Asian Defense Sphere Incident | China | 9/24/2010 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 200 CON | 344.31 |
Con
Win | One or more civilians will be shot dead by uniformed officers (police/military) of an EU state other than the UK while participating in protests or demonstrations within the UK.
| Europe | 9/22/2010 | 26.80 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.88 |
Con
Win | War in the middle east between Israel and at least one (or more) of the usual suspects (Iran, Syria, Hizballah, etc.). Either side may be the instigator. | Middle East | 9/2/2010 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 200 CON | 220.00 |
Pro
Win | McCain defeats Hayworth in the Republican primary. | US | 8/25/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 PRO | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Israeli-Iranian Airspace Incident | Middle East | 7/31/2010 | 26.07 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.98 |
Con
Win | Civil disorder in North Korea. | China | 6/30/2010 | 10.69 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.32 |
Con
Win | Gold price exceeds $1500 per troy ounce by June 30, 2010.
| General | 6/30/2010 | 42.60 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 204.81 |
Con
Win | North Korea implodes, and there is civil disorder. The Kim family is deposed, and the North is administered by the either the UN, the PRC, or an Asian coalition. | China | 6/30/2010 | 1,937.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.10 |
Con
Win | War between Venezuela and Colombia. | World | 6/30/2010 | 42.50 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 204.82 |
Con
Win | Keith Olbermann loses his job at MSNBC. | General | 6/30/2010 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.27 |
Con
Win | Rahm Emmanuel resigns or gets fired as White House Chief of Staff. | US | 6/30/2010 | 18.14 | 1.06 | 200 CON | 211.67 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il dies. | China | 6/30/2010 | 10.24 | 1.11 | 200 CON | 221.63 |
Con
Win | Russia attacks (with military forces) the Ukraine. | Russia | 6/30/2010 | 566.50 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.35 |
Pro
Win | Carly Fiorina is the Republican candidate for the US Senate. | US | 6/9/2010 | 1.01 | 137.00 | 100 PRO | 100.74 |
Con
Win | Ground intervention in Somalia | Terrorism | 6/6/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 300 CON | 300.00 |
Con
Win | The Taliban seize control of Pakistan in a coup detat (with inside help). | Middle East | 6/1/2010 | 269.20 | 1.00 | 400 CON | 401.49 |
Con
Win | North Korea will invade South Korea in order to focus the peoples attention on something other than their current problems such as hunger and as a last ditch effort for KIM to hold on to power | China | 5/1/2010 | 10.82 | 1.10 | 200 CON | 220.36 |
Con
Win | Within the next 6 months, Israel will make a major incursion into the Gaza strip, involving missile attacks and ground troops, that lasts over 72 hours. | Middle East | 2/11/2010 | 8.47 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 226.77 |
Con
Win | Caroline Kennedy will run for Hillarys Senate seat the attainment of which being a necessary preliminary to raising money for a presidential campaign. | US | 1/21/2010 | 17.45 | 1.06 | 200 CON | 212.16 |
Con
Win | Us Treasury Secretary Geithner resigns. | US | 1/2/2010 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 200 CON | 251.72 |
Con
Win | China is unable to maintain its rate of economic growth, and slides into recession. This causes massive riots, and a state of civil disorder that results in another "Tianamen Square" massacre. | China | 1/2/2010 | 5.13 | 1.24 | 200 CON | 248.45 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2009.
| Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 3.68 | 1.37 | 200 CON | 274.70 |
Con
Win | Pakistan descends into civil disorder. Their army is deployed to crush the uprising. | World | 1/2/2010 | 12.60 | 1.09 | 200 CON | 217.24 |
Con
Win | The Iranian government is unable to maintin control, and the people revoly and overthrow the mullahs. | Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 11.09 | 1.10 | 300 CON | 329.73 |
Con
Win | As a result of the financial crisis, Russia loses it internally, and descends into civil disorder. | Russia | 1/2/2010 | 7.16 | 1.16 | 200 CON | 232.48 |
Con
Win | War Between Israel and Iran. | Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 15.90 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 213.42 |
Con
Win | Gordon Brown is no longer Prime Minister. A Tory becomes the new English PM. | Europe | 1/2/2010 | 2.78 | 1.56 | 10 CON | 15.63 |
Con
Win | The Dow closes below 6,000. | US | 1/1/2010 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 75 CON | 109.01 |
Con
Win | The Dow closes above 11,000. | US | 1/1/2010 | 6.43 | 1.18 | 700 CON | 828.92 |
Con
Win | Obama administration indicts former DoJ attornies for providing legal memos justifying torture. | US | 1/1/2010 | 15.50 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 213.79 |
Con
Lose | By the end of 2009, the Large Hadron Collider will have failed to detect neutralinos, gravitons, or the Higgs Boson | Sci/Tech | 1/1/2010 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 300 PRO | 388.31 |
Con
Win | The US will threaten to take Cuba to the UN security council, and start a propaganda campaign calling for war against Cuba, before 2010. | US | 1/1/2010 | 25.25 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 208.25 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon (A-bomb or H-bomb) will be used in anger somwhere in the world before midnight Dec. 31 2009. Dirty bombs don't count. | World | 1/1/2010 | 8.75 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.90 |
Con
Win | President Barak Obama will launch a peacekeeping operation into Somalia | World | 1/1/2010 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.68 |
Con
Win | Before the end of the year, one or more UK government ministers will invoke the Civil Contingencies Act. (Ends Dec 31 2009)
| Europe | 1/1/2010 | 8.82 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.79 |
Con
Win | Obama administration DoJ indicts Bush administration Cabinet-level official for involvement in torture of GWOT detainees. | China | 1/1/2010 | 100.00 | 1.01 | 400 CON | 404.04 |
Pro
Lose | Price of Gold goes above $1200/ troy ounce | General | 12/1/2009 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 200 CON | 348.24 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il dies. | China | 12/1/2009 | 59.28 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 203.43 |
Con
Win | Obama administration is successful in closing GTMO detention facility and transfereing all detainees off island within one year per exeutive order signed 16 NOV 08. | Terrorism | 11/17/2009 | 164.00 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.23 |
Con
Win | Leon Panetta resigns as the head of the CIA. | US | 11/1/2009 | 12.13 | 1.09 | 200 CON | 217.97 |
Con
Win | Sino-US Flare-up | China | 10/30/2009 | 17.13 | 1.06 | 200 CON | 212.40 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il will be replaced by a Pro- Chinese "North Korean" Government | China | 7/1/2009 | 28.16 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 311.05 |
Con
Win | A free floating anti-ship navel mine is encountered in waters off Somalia. The mine may be improvised. | Terrorism | 6/30/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 400 CON | 400.00 |
Con
Win | Prior to Iranian election, low-budget Straight of Hormuz incident created by Iranian RG elements to prop oil prices, help Ahmadinejads poll #s. | Middle East | 6/9/2009 | 6.40 | 1.19 | 200 CON | 237.07 |
Con
Win | A nuclear attack will be carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran against the State of Israel. | Terrorism | 4/1/2009 | 31.36 | 1.03 | 700 CON | 723.05 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be an invasion of Taiwan by China. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a conflict between North and South Korea. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Thye next presidents first crisis will be a war between Iran and Israel. | US | 3/21/2009 | 9.26 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 224.21 |
Pro
Win | Iran will not use nukes on Israel. | Middle East | 3/20/2009 | 1.23 | 5.36 | 100 PRO | 122.92 |
Con
Win | One of the Big three automakers will cease to exist. | US | 3/1/2009 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 500 CON | 581.83 |
Pro
Lose | Benjamin Netanyahu elected next Israeli Prime Minister | Middle East | 2/23/2009 | 1.35 | 3.84 | 200 CON | 767.16 |
Con
Win | The United States or Israel will destroy Iran''s nuclear facilities before 2/1/09 driving oil on the spot market over $200. a barrel. | Middle East | 2/1/2009 | 20.75 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.06 |
Con
Win | USA or Israel will bomb Iran's Nukes | Iraq | 1/1/2009 | 1.85 | 2.17 | 300 CON | 651.61 |
Con
Win | Cuba's offshore oil fields will prove to be a lot larger than previously thought. Putting it in the worlds top ten reserves. | World | 1/1/2009 | 4.42 | 1.29 | 100 CON | 129.26 |
Con
Win | Dow Jones average will close below 6000` | US | 1/1/2009 | 3.78 | 1.36 | 600 CON | 815.55 |
Con
Win | Iran will launch a nuclear attack against Israel | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 312.57 |
Con
Win | Osama bin Laden will be killed by the end of 2008 | Terrorism | 1/1/2009 | 157.20 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.64 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro overthrown in coup d''etat U.S. blamed | World | 1/1/2009 | 9.60 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 111.63 |
Con
Win | The Chinese Navy will lose a warship or submarine due to a major accident by 12/31/2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 10.57 | 1.10 | 200 CON | 220.91 |
Pro
Win | Rafale fighter will have secured no foreign purchase contract(s) prior 01-Jan-2008 | Europe | 1/1/2009 | 1.20 | 5.92 | 200 PRO | 240.68 |
Con
Win | The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close the 2008 year above 11,000 | US | 1/1/2009 | 862.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.23 |
Con
Win | China will have a fixed-wing aircraft carrier operational by the end of 2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 206.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.49 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2008. | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 8.37 | 1.14 | 50 CON | 56.79 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney does not finish 2nd term. | US | 1/1/2009 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 200 CON | 251.70 |
Con
Win | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 100 CON | 134.59 |
Con
Win | Bush suspends Presidential elections / Martial law declared. | US | 12/19/2008 | 142.86 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.41 |
Con
Lose | The United States and Iraq fail to reach a security agreement that authorizes the US to maintain its troops in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/28/2008 | 4.01 | 1.33 | 100 PRO | 401.00 |
Con
Lose | Republicans lose at least 25 seats in the House of Representatives. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.56 | 2.79 | 100 PRO | 156.00 |
Con
Lose | Democrats increase their number of seats in the US Senate by 3. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.29 | 4.50 | 100 PRO | 128.55 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will vote to re-instate a military draft before the 2008 elections | US | 11/5/2008 | 35.46 | 1.03 | 300 CON | 308.71 |
Con
Lose | Rep. John Murtha loses his seat to challenger Bill Russell. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.00 | 430.00 | 100 PRO | 100.23 |
Con
Win | Barrack Obama is found to have more than $10 million in illegal campaign donations and does not win the election (either resigns or loses) due to the worst political scandal since Watergate. | US | 11/4/2008 | 31.33 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.30 |
Con
Win | Iran will attack Iraq, during the same time as America is drawing down troops from Iraq. | Middle East | 10/31/2008 | 64.69 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 203.14 |
Con
Win | The city of Atlanta, Georgia will run out of drinking water in 2008 | US | 10/31/2008 | 103.50 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 302.93 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro captured in Cuba and brought to the U.S. on outstanding drug smuggling warrants | World | 10/15/2008 | 13.00 | 1.08 | 400 CON | 433.35 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin drops out as McCains runnning mate. | US | 10/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 300 CON | 300.00 |
Con
Win | Rudolf Giuliani will be nominated as the Repeblican candidate for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 3.07 | 1.48 | 200 CON | 296.82 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 77.83 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 303.90 |
Con
Win | Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee will be the Republican presidental nominee for the 2008 presidential election. | US | 9/9/2008 | 50.19 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 102.03 |
Con
Win | Fred Dalton Thompson will be the Republican nominee for the 2008 Presidential election. | US | 9/5/2008 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 200 CON | 242.66 |
Con
Win | Charlie Crist will be the republican VP nominee. | US | 9/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Obama will choose Al Gore as his running mate. | US | 8/31/2008 | 31.85 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.62 |
Con
Win | The 2008 Democratic Presidential ticket will be either Obama / Clinton or Clinton / Obama | US | 8/31/2008 | 183.00 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.10 |
Pro
Lose | Obama is nominated as the Democratic candidate for President | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.33 | 4.00 | 300 CON | 1,199.48 |
Con
Win | Obama picks Christine Todd Whitman for his VP slot. | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | Baharain King His Majesty Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be attacked and badly hurt in veciuos attack, forcing him to move into exille. | Middle East | 8/31/2008 | 27.37 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.59 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 400 CON | 445.55 |
Con
Win | There will be another major terrorist attack successfully carried out in the United States. | Terrorism | 7/1/2008 | 10.00 | 1.11 | 306 CON | 340.00 |
Con
Win | Israel will declare its intention to withdraw from, at least, 80% of territories it occupied in 1967 six day war. | Middle East | 6/5/2008 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 300 CON | 402.21 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will have firm orders for at least 650 787 Dreamliners (all models) before the delivery of the first aircraft in May 2008. | Sci/Tech | 3/8/2008 | 1.01 | 79.00 | 200 PRO | 202.56 |
Con
Lose | Karl Rove will lose his White House job. | US | 2/3/2008 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 100 PRO | 219.93 |
Pro
Win | Gov. Mike Huckabee wins Iowa Republican Presedencail caucuse. | US | 1/14/2008 | 1.03 | 30.40 | 200 PRO | 206.80 |
Pro
Lose | The number of civilians killed in Iraq in 2007 will be higher than 2006 | Iraq | 1/11/2008 | 1.29 | 4.47 | 300 CON | 1,340.76 |
Pro
Lose | The number of US military personel killed in the Middle East will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | Middle East | 1/11/2008 | 1.53 | 2.87 | 200 CON | 574.97 |
Con
Win | Ron Paul stuns Republican opponents by winning New Hampshire Primary | General | 1/11/2008 | 13.65 | 1.08 | 200 CON | 215.82 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will sell at least 60 B787 aircraft [firm orders only] between 1/1/2007 and 12/31/2007. | General | 1/11/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 PRO | 200.00 |
Pro
Win | The number of Western military personel killed in the Afghanistan will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | China | 1/11/2008 | 1.54 | 2.85 | 200 PRO | 308.24 |
Pro
Win | Barack Obama wins the Iowa Democratic Caucus | US | 1/10/2008 | 1.32 | 4.10 | 150 PRO | 198.34 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe or his followers publicly state that they have killed a catholic priest or other member of a catholic religious order. | World | 1/8/2008 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.60 |
Con
Win | Any military aircraft of any nation shot down deliberately in air-to-air combat by any other nation. | World | 1/8/2008 | 14.41 | 1.07 | 300 CON | 322.36 |
Con
Win | A Najif type battle occurs in Basra when Muqata Al-Sadar again defies the iraqi government. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 225.73 |
Con
Win | Iran will have a nuclear tipped missle that could reqch Israel | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.98 | 1.51 | 200 CON | 301.07 |
Con
Win | Iraq assumes responsibility for its own security. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 13.40 | 1.08 | 200 CON | 216.13 |
Con
Win | The S&P will be over 1600 by the last day of this year. | US | 1/8/2008 | 353.00 | 1.00 | 300 CON | 300.85 |
Con
Win | The S&P 500 will be 1350 or lower on December 31, 2007 | US | 1/8/2008 | 8.64 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 226.19 |
Con
Win | The national median home value will rise from 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2007 | US | 1/8/2008 | 4.67 | 1.27 | 200 CON | 254.46 |
Con
Win | US fighters scramble to intercept Russian bombers approaching CONUS | Russia | 12/4/2007 | 8.04 | 1.14 | 200 CON | 228.42 |
Con
Win | The United States will deploy American soldiers to the Darfur region of Sudan, as part of a UN approved peacekeeping force. | World | 12/4/2007 | 130.35 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 302.32 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Conduct a White House Makeover. Conservatives Purged. Cheney And At Least Rice Will Be Gone To Purchase Peace With Democrats. | US | 11/29/2007 | 61.82 | 1.02 | 400 CON | 406.58 |
Con
Win | Turkish F16 will be shot down by Greek Air Force. | Europe | 11/29/2007 | 17.14 | 1.06 | 150 CON | 159.29 |
Con
Win | Terrorists Blow Up Euro Disney. Kill hundreds of children. Muslim Group claims responsibility. France makes massive political shift towards America and Europe on War in Middle East | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 256.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.78 |
Con
Win | John Bolton keeps his post as US Ambassabor to the United Nations. | US | 8/6/2007 | 15.95 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 213.38 |
Con
Lose | Segolene Royal will be elected President of France. | Europe | 8/6/2007 | 4.84 | 1.26 | 200 PRO | 968.39 |
Con
Win | India will attack millitant outfits in pakistan occupied kashmir, thereby beginning the World War 3 by 01-03-07 | Terrorism | 8/6/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Sectarian clashes in Lebanon end in civil war. Syria enters the country and install an Iran-backed military occupation. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 334.00 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.60 |
Con
Lose | The 15 UK servicemen siezed by Iran in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, will still be held as of 4/10/07. | World | 8/6/2007 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 400 PRO | 954.50 |
Con
Win | UPS will cancel its A380F order leaving Airbus without any customers for the A380. | General | 8/6/2007 | 5.57 | 1.22 | 400 CON | 487.45 |
Con
Win | Before all US troops have pulled out of Iraq, the country will collapse into civil war and effectively Balkanize. | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 10.42 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 110.62 |
Con
Win | Iraq Reconciliation Deal Package - Saddam Leaves Iraq To Live In Exile | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 13.25 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.08 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran by theend of December 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 83.60 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 202.42 |
Pro
Win | Sen. Joe Lieberman wins his Senate seat as an Independent candidate from Conn. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.08 | 13.02 | 100 PRO | 108.32 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack two souther or western or midwestern American Cities simultaneously | China | 1/18/2007 | 263.90 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.76 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will stage an attack in Washington D.C. against the White House Pentagon or Capitol Building before the end of the year | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 285.52 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.35 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.06 | 19.14 | 400 PRO | 422.05 |
Con
Win | A civil war will break-out in Serbia over the political status of Kosovo. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 9.57 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 223.34 |
Con
Win | Successful or not, there will be an attempt to carry out an attack on American citizens from Canadian soil. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 5.22 | 1.24 | 200 CON | 247.35 |
Con
Win | William Jefferson Clinton becomes the next Secretary General of the United Nations. | World | 1/18/2007 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 50 CON | 57.35 |
Con
Win | The US begins construction of an Isreali style fence along the Mexican-US border. | US | 1/18/2007 | 5.12 | 1.24 | 100 CON | 124.28 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will top $85 or more per barrel by November 30, 2006.
| World | 1/18/2007 | 6.12 | 1.20 | 35 CON | 41.84 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda assasinates President
Bush.
| Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 69.80 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 202.91 |
Con
Win | Internal corruption and violence in Nigeria causes a U.S. intervention. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.19 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 224.42 |
Con
Lose | Arnold Schwarzenegger will NOT be re-elected Governor of California. | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.91 | 1.52 | 200 PRO | 581.71 |
Con
Win | United Kingdom will withdraw from the F35 JSF program. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 11.81 | 1.09 | 500 CON | 546.24 |
Con
Win | Diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Venezuela will be severed. | US | 12/30/2006 | 8.55 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 226.48 |
Con
Win | XM8 uses caseless ammo | US | 12/30/2006 | 153.91 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.65 |
Con
Win | The UN Security Council will impose new sanctions against the Iranian government in response to Iran's threat to resume its uranium enrichment programme.
| Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 17.95 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 105.90 |
Con
Win | Assad regime in Syria falls | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 19.39 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.44 |
Con
Win | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.04 |
Con
Win | The three U.S. soldiers charged with murder will be convicted and handed over to an Iraqi courts for sentencing. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 67.77 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 203.00 |
Con
Lose | Evidence will be discovered that elements of Saddam's WMD program were secreted in the Syria controlled Bekaa Valley. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 100 PRO | 176.20 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai will be overthrown in a coup or assassinated. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 10.94 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.06 |
Con
Win | Venezuela will price its oil exports in euros rather than US Dollars. | World | 10/21/2006 | 34.48 | 1.03 | 200 CON | 205.97 |
Con
Win | UN troop strength in Lebanon will reach 15,000 by the end of September. | Middle East | 10/21/2006 | 150.81 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.34 |
Con
Lose | US troop strength in Iraq falls below 115,000. | Iraq | 10/21/2006 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 200 PRO | 528.63 |
Con
Lose | I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby will NOT be convicted of any Federal crime associated with the Valerie Plame affair or subsequent Federal investigation. | US | 10/21/2006 | 1.16 | 7.32 | 400 PRO | 463.28 |
Con
Win | World War 3 Is Coming In 2006 | China | 10/21/2006 | 25.49 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 312.25 |
Con
Win | Israel will retake a large portion of the Gaza Strip | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 14.83 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 214.46 |
Con
Win | the US Congress will vote funding to study the reactivation of the USS Iowa BB61 and the USS Wisconsin BB64. | US | 6/1/2006 | 29.54 | 1.04 | 600 CON | 621.03 |
Con
Win | Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) | China | 6/1/2006 | 15.43 | 1.07 | 70 CON | 74.85 |
Con
Win | The United States will attack and destroy Iranian nuclear facilities by the end of April 2006. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 29.82 | 1.03 | 200 CON | 206.94 |
Con
Win | The next Space Shuttle launch will occur in March 2006. | Sci/Tech | 4/10/2006 | 64.81 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.57 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.35 |
Con
Win | Ariel Sharon loses in a no confidence vote Binyamin Natanyahu becomes Israel's new Prime Minister. | Middle East | 3/12/2006 | 15.42 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 213.87 |
Con
Win | A Democrat filibuster will succeed in forcing the withdrawal of Samuel "Scalito" Alito's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 3/12/2006 | 100.60 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 202.01 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda major attack against Italy during 2006 winter olympic games in february. | Europe | 3/12/2006 | 13.49 | 1.08 | 200 CON | 216.02 |
Con
Win | Fundamentalist Islamic supporters kidnap a local prominent citizien of the USA in the USA and behead him in the USA when their demands are not met. | Terrorism | 3/12/2006 | 8.78 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.85 |
Con
Win | Zarqawi will be captured with help from Al-Zwahiri | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 901.50 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.22 |
Con
Win | Iran stops/restricts oil export and causes significant rise in crude oil prices. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 228.67 | 1.00 | 300 CON | 301.32 |
Con
Lose | Harriet Miers will be confirmed by the Senate to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.47 | 1.15 | 100 PRO | 746.75 |
Con
Win | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 111.45 |
Pro
Lose | Karl Rove will NOT be indicted in the Valerie Plume affair. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.57 | 2.76 | 100 CON | 275.86 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.14 |
Con
Win | There will be another AlQaeda suicide bombing attack in Britain before yearend. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.14 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.28 |
Con
Win | Asian Bird Flu is Red Chinese biowar WMD. | China | 1/24/2006 | 145.90 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.69 |
Pro
Lose | The price of a barrel of oil will top $70 USD. | World | 1/24/2006 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 100 CON | 205.60 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein is featured in a Cheetos or Doritos commercial. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 38.13 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.69 |
Con
Win | A communist country goes to war with a US ally (or America itself). | World | 1/24/2006 | 35.42 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.91 |
Con
Win | Nigeria capitulates and deports Charles Ghankay Taylor of Liberia to stand trial for war crimes in Sierra Leone. | World | 1/24/2006 | 12.12 | 1.09 | 40 CON | 43.60 |
Con
Win | The DJIA will close below 8,500 at least once by 12/31/2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 128.50 | 1.01 | 200 CON | 201.57 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.10 | 11.14 | 300 PRO | 329.57 |
Con
Win | Major vote fraud allegations in the Washington and Wisconsin 2004 elections finally produce effective reforms.
| US | 1/24/2006 | 11.57 | 1.09 | 200 CON | 218.93 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 500 CON | 515.44 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 208.37 |
Con
Win | Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration Objections | US | 1/24/2006 | 8.25 | 1.14 | 250 CON | 284.50 |
Con
Lose | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 100 PRO | 207.25 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.31 |
Con
Lose | US Army will fail to meet its recruiting quotas for the next six months. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.30 | 4.28 | 100 PRO | 130.46 |
Con
Win | Crude oil will be above $70 a barrel on Nov 1, 2005. | World | 11/10/2005 | 4.88 | 1.26 | 200 CON | 251.56 |
Con
Win | President George Bush's disapproval ratings on the war in Iraq will increase to at least 75%. | General | 11/10/2005 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.86 |
Con
Win | The Iraqi constitution, when put to a vote in October, will be rejected by the voters of 3 or more provinces and not go into effect. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 8.43 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 113.45 |
Con
Win | Chicago Cubs win the World Series | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 91.51 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.10 |
Con
Win | The Iraqi Constitution, when delivered, will implement Sharia and make Islam the religion of the state. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 26.73 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 311.66 |
Con
Lose | John Roberts will be confirmed by the Senate to replace the retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 11/10/2005 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 200 PRO | 400.65 |
Con
Win | Minutemen patroling border will suffer casualties from an attack by Mexican border patrol or MS-13 | US | 11/10/2005 | 21.00 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.00 |
Con
Win | Insurgency in Iraq will increase causing British withdrawal and Tony Blair's resignation | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 104.82 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 302.89 |
Pro
Win | Kofi Annan is still U.N. Secretary General | World | 10/7/2005 | 1.03 | 34.26 | 200 PRO | 206.01 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.42 |
Con
Lose | Self styled head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is captured or killed by coalition-led forces by 1st Sept. 2005.
| Iraq | 9/22/2005 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 100 PRO | 173.15 |
Con
Win | Multiple, simultaneous shootdowns of commercial aircraft by terrorists. | Terrorism | 9/22/2005 | 8.91 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 225.27 |
Con
Lose | The EU will lift the arms embargo against China, despite Administration protests. | Europe | 9/22/2005 | 1.60 | 2.68 | 50 PRO | 79.76 |
Con
Win | A Category 5 hurricane will make landfall in Florida. | US | 9/22/2005 | 16.49 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.46 |
Con
Win | The Republicans in the US Senate will use the "nuclear" option on judicial nominees. The Democrats will make good on their threat of closing down the government. | US | 9/22/2005 | 4.79 | 1.26 | 100 CON | 126.41 |
Pro
Win | Israel completes withdrawal from Gaza Strip, including removal of all settlements therein. | Middle East | 9/22/2005 | 1.27 | 4.64 | 200 PRO | 254.93 |
Pro
Win | The death toll from Katrina will exceed 300 as determined two weeks from now. | US | 9/14/2005 | 1.08 | 14.26 | 63 PRO | 67.75 |
Pro
Win | Space Shuttle Discovery, currently on mission STS-114 MCC, will land safely in August. | Sci/Tech | 8/23/2005 | 1.00 | 217.10 | 100 PRO | 100.46 |
Con
Win | Iraqi Constitution will be approved by Aug 22 | Iraq | 8/23/2005 | 2.80 | 1.55 | 100 CON | 155.49 |
Con
Win | Israel occupies part of Lebanon | Middle East | 8/23/2005 | 70.85 | 1.01 | 129 CON | 130.85 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 200 CON | 270.93 |
Con
Win | President Bush will nominate Alex Kozinski (9th Circuit Court of Appeals, appointed by Ronald Reagan) to replace the retiring Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 8/10/2005 | 16.41 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.49 |
Pro
Win | NASA will launch Space Shuttle Discovery by July 31st. | Sci/Tech | 8/10/2005 | 1.50 | 3.01 | 100 PRO | 149.82 |
Con
Win | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 107.56 |
Pro
Win | New York City will fail in its bid to win the 2012 Olympics. | World | 7/6/2005 | 1.10 | 10.68 | 100 PRO | 110.33 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 300 CON | 328.58 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will conduct aerial eradication of Afghan poppy fields during the 2005 growing season. | World | 7/6/2005 | 9.97 | 1.11 | 200 CON | 222.30 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 103 CON | 143.53 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 200 CON | 210.70 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 53 CON | 54.48 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.02 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 65 CON | 72.35 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 250 CON | 282.78 |
Pro
Win | Bush nominee Paul Wolfowitz gets approved by World Bank Board as next Bank President. | World | 6/10/2005 | 1.06 | 18.58 | 100 PRO | 105.69 |
Con
Win | US forces in Iraq decline to under 60,000. | Middle East | 6/10/2005 | 4.72 | 1.27 | 100 CON | 126.85 |
Con
Win | Syrian troops withdraw completely from Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.21 | 1.83 | 200 CON | 365.16 |
Con
Lose | France will approve the EU Constitution referendum that will be voted on 5/29. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.58 | 1.63 | 100 PRO | 258.24 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.86 |
Con
Win | US sends large-scale stabilization force to Darfur after presidential election. | World | 5/11/2005 | 16.05 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 106.64 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 300 CON | 303.60 |
Con
Win | US bombs the Iranian nuclear facilities to stop work on nuclear weapons. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 11.44 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.58 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.46 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.90 |
Con
Lose | US Army adopts 6.8mm round for its new M-8 assault rifle. Heavier round favored because it is deadlier than 5.56mm round. | US | 4/17/2005 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 20 PRO | 82.88 |
Con
Lose | Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 9.55 | 1.12 | 20 PRO | 191.09 |
Con
Win | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 240 CON | 242.14 |
Con
Win | Israel-Palestine cease-fire collapses within one month. | Middle East | 3/15/2005 | 2.34 | 1.74 | 200 CON | 348.89 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.81 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.64 |
Con
Win | The interem government due to govern Iraq between July 1 and elections next year does not last until elections, but resigns or is thrown out | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 12.32 | 1.09 | 50 CON | 54.42 |
Pro
Win | Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005 | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.08 | 12.86 | 55 PRO | 59.64 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 100 PRO | 132.55 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi elections occur on January 30, 2005 as scheduled with the majority of eligible Iraqis participating. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 100 PRO | 137.93 |
Con
Lose | The UN will declare the Iraqi elections invalid and illegitimate | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 2.74 | 1.58 | 28 PRO | 76.61 |
Con
Win | Leader of the main al-Qaeda cell in North America is caught and found to be an American (born) citizen. | Terrorism | 1/30/2005 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 55 CON | 70.86 |
Con
Lose | US Cancels F-22 fighter. | US | 1/30/2005 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 30 PRO | 207.45 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 224.30 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 111.86 |
Con
Win | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.72 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.19 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 100 PRO | 115.20 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 100 CON | 151.13 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 30 CON | 30.87 |
Con
Win | Breakaway republic from Indonesia | World | 1/4/2005 | 45.89 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.56 |
Con
Win | Revolution in Iran | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 50 CON | 88.49 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 75 CON | 90.05 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 25 CON | 43.58 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 135 CON | 144.01 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 99 CON | 104.10 |
Con
Lose | Scott Peterson will NOT receive the death penalty for murdering his wife and unborn child. | US | 12/22/2004 | 9.34 | 1.12 | 100 PRO | 934.00 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 100 PRO | 101.38 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 125 CON | 126.21 |
Con
Lose | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 50 PRO | 584.55 |
Con
Win | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 25 CON | 64.92 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 50 CON | 60.72 |
Con
Win | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 22 CON | 61.13 |
Con
Win | Homeland Security (FBI, CIA, Etc.) will announce they successfully foiled a terrorist attempt to disrupt the U.S. Presidential Election within one week of the Election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 50 CON | 71.00 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.59 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 203.91 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 64 CON | 66.94 |
Con
Win | Iraqi WMD stockpiles located - in Syria/Bekaa Valley | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 2.77 | 1.56 | 75 CON | 117.32 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 65 CON | 77.27 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in the United States or against a major American target abroad. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 30 CON | 100.22 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 57 PRO | 58.58 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 70 CON | 77.44 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.43 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 127 CON | 129.64 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 50 CON | 58.38 |
Con
Win | Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.63 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.69 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 112 CON | 119.79 |
Pro
Lose | Disclplinary action (of any sort)for the Abu Ghraib incident will be faced by an officer with rank of Brig. General or higher. | US | 9/16/2004 | 1.38 | 3.65 | 20 CON | 73.02 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 25 CON | 27.97 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 50 PRO | 64.70 |
Con
Win | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 25 CON | 56.55 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.69 |
Pro
Win | The Supreme Court Rules that detainees at Guantanamo have the right to appeal to the Federal courts | US | 8/1/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 35 PRO | 86.00 |
Con
Win | John McCain will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 83 CON | 83.00 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Abu Ghraib scandal, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigns. | US | 6/30/2004 | 26.56 | 1.04 | 75 CON | 77.93 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden captured | Terrorism | 6/30/2004 | 1.70 | 2.44 | 30 PRO | 50.90 |
Con
Win | Major terrorist attack on Montreal public rail system prior to 06/28/04 Canadian General elections. | Terrorism | 6/29/2004 | 59.46 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.71 |
Con
Win | Hillary announced as a Vice-Presidential running mate in 2004 election. | US | 6/1/2004 | 11.48 | 1.10 | 30 CON | 32.86 |
Con
Win | USA led troops attacks the city of Najaf in Iraq and kill or arrest Al-Sadr. | Iraq | 4/24/2004 | 61.00 | 1.02 | 40 CON | 40.67 |
