| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 26.11 |
Con
Win | Japan & Tiawan sign mutual defence agreements against China | China | 10/21/2006 | 17.33 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.61 |
Con
Win | Major combat operations begin in Iran in 2005 after evidence suggests development of nuclear weapons, and plans to use them against Israeli and/or American interests in Mid-East. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 50 CON | 112.39 |
Con
Lose | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 25 PRO | 51.81 |
Con
Win | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 25 CON | 32.33 |
Con
Win | the north korean goverment will fall this time next year. | World | 12/10/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 100 CON | 150.98 |
Con
Lose | Iraq Al Qaeda leader Zarqawi is killed or captured prior to the January election. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 1.89 | 2.12 | 15 PRO | 28.36 |
Con
Win | Haliburton will be found to have commited overcharging and fraud by Army accountants on no bid contracts for US troop support through subsidiary Brown & Root. | US | 9/22/2005 | 2.42 | 1.71 | 25 CON | 42.67 |
Con
Lose | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Antonin Scalia to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 8/10/2005 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 50 PRO | 119.04 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food corruption investigations, Kofi Anan will resign as Sectretary-General of the United Nations. | Iraq | 8/10/2005 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 50 CON | 84.82 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 213 CON | 233.29 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 100 CON | 139.35 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 250 CON | 263.37 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.79 |
Con
Win | U.S launches airstrikes on targets in Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 3.25 | 1.45 | 250 CON | 361.34 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Clarence Thomas to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 7/6/2005 | 2.41 | 1.71 | 50 CON | 85.38 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 200 CON | 220.09 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 109.23 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 111.31 |
Con
Win | Airstrikes by US forces against Iranian targets - excluding cross-border raids aimed at stemming Ansar or 'hot pursuit' scenarios. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.65 |
Con
Win | Another coup will occur in Venezuela against President Hugo Chavez within the next year. | World | 5/11/2005 | 6.68 | 1.18 | 300 CON | 352.84 |
Con
Win | Kurd vs. Sunni vs. Shiite civil war explodes in Iraq. US troops caught in middle. | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 2.84 | 1.54 | 217 CON | 334.92 |
Con
Win | Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term. | US | 4/17/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 125 CON | 188.92 |
Con
Win | Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 9.55 | 1.12 | 250 CON | 279.22 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.81 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda attempts repeat of Beslan massacre in Europe | Terrorism | 3/15/2005 | 18.40 | 1.06 | 200 CON | 211.49 |
Pro
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be cancelled. | Sports | 2/20/2005 | 1.05 | 20.28 | 281 PRO | 295.57 |
Con
Win | The U.S. (with E.U. acquiescence) bombs targets relating to the Iranian nuclear program. | Middle East | 2/20/2005 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 25 CON | 29.73 |
Pro
Win | Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005 | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.08 | 12.86 | 25 PRO | 27.11 |
Con
Win | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 150 CON | 610.78 |
Con
Win | Leader of the main al-Qaeda cell in North America is caught and found to be an American (born) citizen. | Terrorism | 1/30/2005 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 25 CON | 32.21 |
Con
Win | US Cancels F-22 fighter. | US | 1/30/2005 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 25 CON | 29.23 |
Con
Win | Eastern Ukraine Secedes in election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 16.61 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.40 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Pro
Lose | Death toll from Asia tsunami and related diseases exceeds 200,000. | World | 1/20/2005 | 1.19 | 6.18 | 200 CON | 1,236.26 |
Pro
Win | Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) will win the Palestinian presidential election held on January 9th, 2005. | Middle East | 1/10/2005 | 1.04 | 26.72 | 350 PRO | 363.61 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 27 PRO | 27.51 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 25 PRO | 25.74 |
Con
Win | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 84 CON | 90.26 |
Con
Win | Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons will be used in a terrorist attack in Aisa, Europe or North America before the new year. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 5.84 | 1.21 | 250 CON | 301.67 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 25 CON | 31.24 |
Con
Win | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 50 CON | 65.89 |
Pro
Lose | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 250 CON | 1,895.08 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 25 CON | 37.78 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 500 CON | 518.01 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 25 CON | 43.58 |
Pro
Win | The Federal Reserve will raise the Fed Funds rate at the December 14 meeting. | US | 12/30/2004 | 1.08 | 14.14 | 25 PRO | 26.90 |
Con
Lose | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 25 PRO | 195.12 |
Con
Win | Republicans pick up at least 5 seats in the US senate from the November 2nd, 2004 elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 25 CON | 30.36 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 25 PRO | 28.86 |
Pro
Win | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 25 PRO | 50.94 |
Pro
Win | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 100 PRO | 109.43 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EDT on Wednesday, November 3rd, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 25 CON | 43.13 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 100 CON | 121.16 |
Con
Lose | John Kerry wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.45 | 1.29 | 25 PRO | 111.18 |
Con
Lose | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 25 PRO | 109.26 |
Con
Lose | By 8pm EST on Tuesday, November 9th, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.60 | 1.22 | 25 PRO | 140.11 |
Con
Win | John Kerry elected President. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 50 CON | 81.87 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 25 CON | 30.36 |
Con
Lose | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 25 PRO | 39.06 |
Pro
Win | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 50 PRO | 55.54 |
Con
Win | The investigators of the CBS National Guard memo scandal make their report public before the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.05 | 1.17 | 100 CON | 116.52 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will reach $60 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | US | 11/3/2004 | 8.22 | 1.14 | 25 CON | 28.46 |
Con
Win | AlQaeda will attempt a major attack on US soil within a week of the US elections, in order to influence electoral outcome, as well as to grab headlines | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 2.81 | 1.55 | 25 CON | 38.81 |
Pro
Lose | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 50 CON | 72.67 |
Con
Win | The Minnesota Twins win the 2004 American League Championship Series. | Sports | 10/18/2004 | 3.22 | 1.45 | 50 CON | 72.57 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai is assassinated before the Afghan elections. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 17.85 | 1.06 | 25 CON | 26.48 |
