| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Terrorists will kill more than 20,000 American civilians by April 2013. | Terrorism | 4/15/2013 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 100 CON | 126.45 |
Con
Win | Nuclear device detonated in an American population center. | US | 1/26/2013 | 27.03 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.84 |
Con
Win | Iran exerts dominance over Iraq, before end of Obama 1st term. | Iraq | 1/26/2013 | 8.76 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.44 |
Con
Win | Obama and Congressional leaders announce the US will join with the EU under a common government | US | 1/26/2013 | 18.32 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.89 |
Con
Win | Man made global warming disaster prophets will reverse direction in the face of record cold. Afterwards, they will warn that "greenhouse gases" cause ice ages. | General | 1/1/2013 | 4.11 | 1.32 | 100 CON | 132.14 |
Con
Win | US Congress with the President will outlaw ownership of gold by individuals in the US | US | 1/1/2013 | 30.09 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Win | US will remove its military from Afghanistan under pressure from the Afghan government. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 64.18 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.08 |
Con
Win | President Obama sells Alaska to settle debt and to pay for ambitious social programs. | US | 1/1/2013 | 824.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Germany leaves the Euro. | Europe | 1/1/2013 | 5.28 | 1.23 | 2 CON | 2.47 |
Con
Win | Joint force including participation of Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia carry out air strike on Iran. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 34.05 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.15 |
Con
Win | Iran becomes a military dictatorship under the IRGC. No civilian rule. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 3.86 | 1.35 | 50 CON | 67.47 |
Pro
Win | End of World fails to materialize | World | 12/21/2012 | 1.11 | 9.98 | 5 PRO | 5.56 |
Con
Win | Obama will be a one term president. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 200 CON | 452.49 |
Con
Win | Karzai is assassinated in coop. A tacit US complicity come to light after the fact. | Middle East | 11/8/2012 | 8.92 | 1.13 | 5 CON | 5.63 |
Con
Win | Iran announces that it has detonated an underground nuclear device. | Middle East | 11/4/2012 | 6.77 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.87 |
Con
Win | Terrorists detonate either a nuclear device or a "dirty bomb" in Russia. | Russia | 3/2/2012 | 4.22 | 1.31 | 5 CON | 6.55 |
Con
Win | The Muslim Brotherhood takes over the Egyptian government, and marginalizes the army. | Middle East | 3/2/2012 | 7.03 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.83 |
Con
Win | Egypt and Israel go to war. Either side may be the aggressor. | Middle East | 3/2/2012 | 23.90 | 1.04 | 4 CON | 4.17 |
Con
Lose | Incursion into Somalia by a country not neighboring. Number of troop or duration irrelevant, as long as it involves deliberate use of conventional forces. | World | 2/19/2012 | 3.57 | 1.39 | 10 PRO | 35.71 |
Con
Win | Apocalypse will come. | World | 1/22/2012 | 10.45 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 110.58 |
Con
Win | The United States and Iran achieve a diplomatic break-through, and resume relations. | Middle East | 1/1/2012 | 4.52 | 1.28 | 100 CON | 128.38 |
Con
Win | President Obama gets removed from office by Congress invoking the 25th Amendment. | US | 1/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Lose | Vatican calls for a new crusade against extreme Muslim groups | Terrorism | 1/1/2012 | 33.55 | 1.03 | 10 PRO | 335.50 |
Con
Win | The fued between Ahmedinejad and Khamenei comes to a head, and Khamenei (or his loyalists) have Ahmedinejad removed in one form or another (ousted from his office, killed, exiled). | Middle East | 1/1/2012 | 4.29 | 1.30 | 100 CON | 130.36 |
Con
Win | The founder of wikileaks, Julian Assange, gets assassinated. | General | 1/1/2012 | 5.11 | 1.24 | 15 CON | 18.65 |
Con
Win | Obama voluntarily resigns from office before his term expires. | US | 12/31/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | The Jordanian government collapses. The Royal family flees the country. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 12.55 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 108.66 |
Con
Win | The Saudi Royal family gets overthrown. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | The Assad family gets overthrown in Syria. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 20 CON | 34.50 |
Pro
Win | Ghaddafi gets overthrown in Libya. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.27 | 4.65 | 100 PRO | 127.43 |
Con
Lose | The NFL settles its labor dispute, and the 2011 season gets played as scheduled. | Sports | 7/1/2011 | 1.78 | 2.28 | 10 PRO | 17.80 |
Con
Win | The government of Iran gets overthrown. | Middle East | 6/30/2011 | 1,177.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Turkey leaves, or is kicked out of, NATO. | Middle East | 6/1/2011 | 136.42 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.04 |
Con
Win | The next terror attack in the US after Times Square will be initially blamed on either "right wingers" or tea partiers, by a mayor or higher level politician, long before the facts become clear. | Terrorism | 5/11/2011 | 109.40 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.23 |
Con
Win | Iran announces they have the bomb. | Middle East | 1/2/2011 | 266.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.02 |
Con
Win | War in Korea. | China | 1/2/2011 | 90.10 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.06 |
Con
Win | Israel launches an air strike against Iran. | Middle East | 1/2/2011 | 34.88 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.15 |
Con
Win | Obamas policies towards Israel cause the current government to collapse, and a government more to Obamas liking to take its place. | Middle East | 1/1/2011 | 10.66 | 1.10 | 5 CON | 5.52 |
Con
Win | usa will intercept a stray nuclear missle and bush will become a national hero despite his declining support as president.because of him we will soon be able to defend ourselves from a nuclear strike. | Terrorism | 1/1/2011 | 22.59 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 104.63 |
Con
Win | War between the North and the South on the Korean peninsula. Chinese intervene to restore peace and unite the Koreas under their security umbrella. | China | 1/1/2011 | 1,474.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | War in the middle east between Israel and at least one (or more) of the usual suspects (Iran, Syria, Hizballah, etc.). Either side may be the instigator. | Middle East | 9/2/2010 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 5 CON | 5.50 |
Con
Win | North Korean nuke test. | China | 8/1/2010 | 48.00 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.11 |
Con
Win | Israeli-Iranian Airspace Incident | Middle East | 7/31/2010 | 26.07 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.20 |
Con
Win | Civil disorder in North Korea. | China | 6/30/2010 | 10.69 | 1.10 | 5 CON | 5.52 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-Un (the youngest son) gets formally introduced as the successor to Kim Jong-Il. | China | 6/30/2010 | 9.07 | 1.12 | 20 CON | 22.48 |
Con
Win | The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes below 8000 by June 30,2010. | US | 6/30/2010 | 158.40 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.03 |
Con
Win | Gold price exceeds $1500 per troy ounce by June 30, 2010.
| General | 6/30/2010 | 42.60 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.12 |
Con
Win | North Korea implodes, and there is civil disorder. The Kim family is deposed, and the North is administered by the either the UN, the PRC, or an Asian coalition. | China | 6/30/2010 | 1,937.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Keith Olbermann loses his job at MSNBC. | General | 6/30/2010 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.18 |
Con
Lose | The trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is moved out of NY. | Terrorism | 6/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 PRO | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il dies. | China | 6/30/2010 | 10.24 | 1.11 | 20 CON | 22.16 |
Con
Win | The Taliban seize control of Pakistan in a coup detat (with inside help). | Middle East | 6/1/2010 | 269.20 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.37 |
Con
Win | Iran will have a nuclear weapon that it can launch against Israel by the end of 2010
| Middle East | 2/2/2010 | 18.25 | 1.06 | 20 CON | 21.16 |
Con
Win | The next US President will launch an investigation of the 43rd presidents handling of the war in Iraq within 1 year of being sworn in. | US | 1/21/2010 | 8.46 | 1.13 | 1 CON | 1.13 |
Con
Lose | Gordon Brown is no longer Prime Minister. A Tory becomes the new English PM. | Europe | 1/2/2010 | 2.78 | 1.56 | 100 PRO | 277.78 |
Con
Win | The Dow closes below 6,000. | US | 1/1/2010 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 150 CON | 218.02 |
Con
Win | The Dow closes above 11,000. | US | 1/1/2010 | 6.43 | 1.18 | 150 CON | 177.62 |
Con
Win | The US will threaten to take Cuba to the UN security council, and start a propaganda campaign calling for war against Cuba, before 2010. | US | 1/1/2010 | 25.25 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.12 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon (A-bomb or H-bomb) will be used in anger somwhere in the world before midnight Dec. 31 2009. Dirty bombs don't count. | World | 1/1/2010 | 8.75 | 1.13 | 115 CON | 129.84 |
Con
Win | President Barak Obama will launch a peacekeeping operation into Somalia | World | 1/1/2010 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 100 CON | 116.75 |
Con
Win | In the US, the draft will be re-instated before the end of 2009 | US | 1/1/2010 | 46.83 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | Obama administration DoJ indicts Bush administration Cabinet-level official for involvement in torture of GWOT detainees. | China | 1/1/2010 | 100.00 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.51 |
Con
Win | The US suffers a major terrorist event. The new Pres Civilian D Force gains sweeping powers. State of Emergency declared. Fed rules by issuing executive orders, creating a state sponsored autocracy. | US | 8/3/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Ahmedinejad fails to win the upcoming election in Iran. Mousavi (the principal opponent) gets enough votes to win, or at least force a run-off. | Middle East | 6/15/2009 | 115.00 | 1.01 | 4 CON | 4.04 |
Pro
Win | US cuts DDG-1000 in new budget | US | 6/2/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | US cuts FCS in new budget | US | 6/2/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Pro
Lose | US cuts F-35 in new budget | US | 5/31/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | US cuts F-22 Raptor in new budget | US | 5/31/2009 | 1.08 | 13.44 | 1 PRO | 1.08 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be an invasion of Taiwan by China. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a conflict between North and South Korea. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a Russian incursion into Ukraine. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a border clash between The Peoples Republic of China and North Korea. | US | 3/21/2009 | 5.52 | 1.22 | 1 CON | 1.22 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a Russian incursion into a former Soviet Union State other than Georgia or Ukraine. | US | 3/21/2009 | 12.04 | 1.09 | 1 CON | 1.09 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a border clash in Afghanistan with Pakistani troops. | US | 3/21/2009 | 14.42 | 1.07 | 1 CON | 1.07 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a war between India and Pakistan as a result of the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Iran will not use nukes on Israel. | Middle East | 3/20/2009 | 1.23 | 5.36 | 4 PRO | 4.92 |
Con
Win | George W. Bush succeeded by his vice-president. | US | 1/20/2009 | 5.46 | 1.22 | 1000 CON | 1,224.06 |
Con
Win | Dow Jones average will close below 6000` | US | 1/1/2009 | 3.78 | 1.36 | 41 CON | 55.73 |
Con
Win | Iran will launch a nuclear attack against Israel | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.19 |
Con
Win | The Iranian government dominates Iraq since it will be a nuclear power and Iranian agents or sympathizers are elected to public office and institute pro -Iranian policies. | China | 1/1/2009 | 7.25 | 1.16 | 100 CON | 116.00 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro overthrown in coup d''etat U.S. blamed | World | 1/1/2009 | 9.60 | 1.12 | 11 CON | 12.28 |
Con
Win | The Chinese Navy will lose a warship or submarine due to a major accident by 12/31/2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 10.57 | 1.10 | 1 CON | 1.10 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney does not finish 2nd term. | US | 1/1/2009 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 300 CON | 377.55 |
Con
Win | Bush suspends Presidential elections / Martial law declared. | US | 12/19/2008 | 142.86 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will vote to re-instate a military draft before the 2008 elections | US | 11/5/2008 | 35.46 | 1.03 | 20 CON | 20.58 |
Con
Lose | Republican candidate wins the white House/Presidency in 2008 election. | US | 11/5/2008 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 50 PRO | 131.36 |
Con
Lose | McCain will be elected president of the United States | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.79 | 2.27 | 800 PRO | 1,432.31 |
Con
Win | The Constitution of the United States is amended to permit naturalized citizens to be President. | US | 11/1/2008 | 7.66 | 1.15 | 1000 CON | 1,150.22 |
Con
Win | Iran will attack Iraq, during the same time as America is drawing down troops from Iraq. | Middle East | 10/31/2008 | 64.69 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.39 |
Con
Win | The city of Atlanta, Georgia will run out of drinking water in 2008 | US | 10/31/2008 | 103.50 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.49 |
Con
Win | Rudolf Guilianni will be elected president of the United States, | US | 10/15/2008 | 5.75 | 1.21 | 1 CON | 1.21 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clilnton will be elected president of the united States. | US | 10/15/2008 | 4.48 | 1.29 | 300 CON | 386.10 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro captured in Cuba and brought to the U.S. on outstanding drug smuggling warrants | World | 10/15/2008 | 13.00 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.17 |
Con
Win | Mike Huckabee will be elected President of the United States | US | 9/27/2008 | 20.74 | 1.05 | 1 CON | 1.05 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 77.83 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Senator Charles Timothy "Chuck" Hagel will be the 2008 Republican presidential candidate | US | 9/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Fred Dalton Thompson will be the Republican nominee for the 2008 Presidential election. | US | 9/5/2008 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 588 CON | 713.42 |
Con
Win | Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be the 2008 Republican presidential nominee. | US | 9/1/2008 | 7.81 | 1.15 | 150 CON | 172.04 |
Con
Win | Senator George Allen will be the 2008 Republican presidential candidate. | US | 9/1/2008 | 42.93 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 51.19 |
Con
Win | Former governer of the Commonwealth of Virginia, Mark Warner clinches the Democratic presidential nomination. | US | 8/31/2008 | 11.55 | 1.09 | 50 CON | 54.74 |
Con
Lose | Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.32 | 4.14 | 500 PRO | 659.11 |
Pro
Win | Hillary Clinton in 2008 primaries to be Dem Presidential candidate but loses out to another Dem candidate | US | 8/31/2008 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 50 PRO | 99.97 |
Con
Win | Democrats will convince Senator Joe Lieberman they need him to be the Democratic presidential standard bearer for the 2008 presidential race. | US | 8/31/2008 | 25.59 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 312.20 |
Pro
Lose | Obama is nominated as the Democratic candidate for President | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.33 | 4.00 | 500 CON | 1,999.14 |
Con
Win | Baharain King His Majesty Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be attacked and badly hurt in veciuos attack, forcing him to move into exille. | Middle East | 8/31/2008 | 27.37 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 25.95 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 1 CON | 1.11 |
Con
Win | Iranian backed Shiites take over Iraq | Iraq | 6/30/2008 | 13.92 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 53.87 |
Con
Win | Israel will declare its intention to withdraw from, at least, 80% of territories it occupied in 1967 six day war. | Middle East | 6/5/2008 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 100 CON | 134.07 |
Con
Win | China military in Cuba. Announce defense and trade (subsidy) pact. | China | 5/1/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.12 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama as the presidential ticket for the 2008 election. | US | 3/31/2008 | 8.57 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 226.41 |
Con
Win | The New England patriots win the Super Bowl and complete a perfect 19-0 season. | Sports | 2/3/2008 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 48 CON | 78.66 |
Con
Win | Gen. John Abizaid Announces Intent To Retire and Run For Democratic Pres. Nomination | US | 1/24/2008 | 479.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Donald Rumsfeld will stay in his post at least for the remainder of the Bush Adm. | US | 1/24/2008 | 2.23 | 1.81 | 1 CON | 1.81 |
Pro
Win | Windows Vista DRM will be hacked, raising concerns about the security of the Vista Operating System | Sci/Tech | 1/8/2008 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 50 PRO | 81.90 |
Con
Win | An administration official, US House representative or US Senator will publicly advocate restoring Saddam to power in Iraq in order to end what they will call chaos. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 14.31 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 107.51 |
Con
Win | Cuba Will Become a Satellite of a Major Power Which Is Not the US | General | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.63 |
Con
Win | Iraq assumes responsibility for its own security. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 13.40 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.06 |
Con
Win | Iran will use a nuclear weapon against Israel within the next year. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 1,471.50 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Terrorists will strike on Canadian soil before January 1. 2008. | Terrorism | 1/8/2008 | 6.43 | 1.18 | 20 CON | 23.68 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein regains dictatorial power in Iraq | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 80 CON | 82.61 |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 300 CON | 313.33 |
Con
Win | The United States will deploy American soldiers to the Darfur region of Sudan, as part of a UN approved peacekeeping force. | World | 12/4/2007 | 130.35 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.04 |
Con
Win | Democrats In Congress Propose Federally Mandated Licensing Of the Possession Of All Handguns Together With Mandated Fees. | US | 11/29/2007 | 9.49 | 1.12 | 278 CON | 310.75 |
Con
Win | The Chicago Cubs will win the 2007 Major League BaseBall World Series | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 73.77 | 1.01 | 201 CON | 203.76 |
Con
Win | The New Congress Will Debate A Proposal For Bringing Back the Draft. | US | 11/29/2007 | 6.15 | 1.19 | 300 CON | 358.26 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Select A Successor And Replace Cheney With That Successor. | US | 11/29/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Conduct a White House Makeover. Conservatives Purged. Cheney And At Least Rice Will Be Gone To Purchase Peace With Democrats. | US | 11/29/2007 | 61.82 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | Any military aircraft of any nation shot down deliberately in air-to-air combat by any other nation. | World | 11/29/2007 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 250 CON | 286.37 |
Con
Win | Al Jazeera station in Doha will be bombed flat. | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 282.75 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Weapons of mass destruction ie. Chemical bio.
or atomic will be found by end of 2007 in Iraq.
however the Government will try to suppress this Info under NATIONAL SECURITIES ACT. | Iraq | 11/29/2007 | 101.00 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers will will the National League Pennant | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 152.50 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Lose | The Milwaukee Brewers will finish over .500 | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 1.03 | 40.50 | 1 PRO | 1.03 |
Con
Win | The United States conducts avowed military operations against Iran. | General | 11/29/2007 | 250.35 | 1.00 | 4 CON | 4.02 |
Con
Win | Israel and Syria will go to war by the end of the summer | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 33.76 | 1.03 | 4 CON | 4.12 |
Con
Win | Turkish F16 will be shot down by Greek Air Force. | Europe | 11/29/2007 | 17.14 | 1.06 | 66 CON | 70.09 |
Con
Win | Terrorists Blow Up Euro Disney. Kill hundreds of children. Muslim Group claims responsibility. France makes massive political shift towards America and Europe on War in Middle East | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 256.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.04 |
Con
Win | India will attack millitant outfits in pakistan occupied kashmir, thereby beginning the World War 3 by 01-03-07 | Terrorism | 8/6/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Con
Win | Sectarian clashes in Lebanon end in civil war. Syria enters the country and install an Iran-backed military occupation. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 334.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Iranian retaliation for attacks in its boarders will be attacks in Israel. Up risings in Bahrain and terrorist attacks through Iranian funded militants in Kuwait and Qatar. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 76.24 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.66 |
Con
Win | NATO Seizes Iranian Oil Fields Preliminary to Using Economic Pressure On Iran To Comply With NPT. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 218.96 | 1.00 | 48 CON | 48.22 |
Con
Win | Syria and Iran invade Iraq and set up insurgent puppet regime.
| Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 82.07 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.62 |
Con
Win | Before all US troops have pulled out of Iraq, the country will collapse into civil war and effectively Balkanize. | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 10.42 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | Iraq Reconciliation Deal Package - Saddam Leaves Iraq To Live In Exile | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 13.25 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.16 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran by theend of December 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 83.60 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.06 |
Con
Win | Walid Jumblat is assasinated in Lebanon, sparking hostilities between pro Syrian and anti Syrian forces in Beirut, Israel uses this to invade Lebanon.
| Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 53.86 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.47 |
Con
Win | Finland applies for NATO membership. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 41.76 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.25 |
Con
Win | During the next presidential administration, bills will be introduced in the House and Senate that would allow non-natural-born US Citizens to run for President. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 20 CON | 38.06 |
Con
Win | Israel will wage terrorist attacks with in Iran on the Iranian nuclear facilities.Iran will counter with terrorist attacks and open attacks on Israel and the Gulf States. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Israel will wage terrorist attacks with in Iran, on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel will not be hidden it will be open war fare. Iran will counter with direct attacks on Israel. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The United States will conduct a massive air campaign that will bomb every Iranian nuclear facility and every Iranian air base that has missles. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 5.36 | 1.23 | 970 CON | 1,192.73 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack two souther or western or midwestern American Cities simultaneously | China | 1/18/2007 | 263.90 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | After Bush leaves office, Blair will follow him, and amid Democratic backlash to indict Bush appointees, another US terror attack will take place on the scale of 9-11 or the UK train attacks. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 76.50 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.13 |
Con
Win | A civil insurrection requiring regular armed forces troops will occur in a US city before Bush leaves office. | US | 1/18/2007 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 200 CON | 215.37 |
Con
Win | US Withdraws from Iraq, Which Quickly Degenerates into Civil War | Iraq | 1/18/2007 | 9.08 | 1.12 | 150 CON | 168.56 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney will not be the Vice President of the US at the end of 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 9.11 | 1.12 | 15 CON | 16.85 |
Con
Win | The chain of public relations disasters for the Chinese govt, will build into a wider, self-sustaining uprising that threatens Beijing's rule. | China | 1/18/2007 | 17.09 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.62 |
Con
Win | The Eurabian Civil War which started in Paris will become the new Sarajevo "shot heard round the world," as it generates farther-reaching ripple effects, including sinking Turkey's bid to enter EU. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 42.67 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Con
Win | One or more space tourists will be killed in a flight accident in the first year of private commercial space travel. | Sci/Tech | 1/18/2007 | 7.83 | 1.15 | 300 CON | 343.91 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Iraq. | US | 1/18/2007 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.21 |
Con
Win | Saddam WMD found before 12/31/06 | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 79.00 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.06 |
Con
Win | The Chicago Cubs will Win the 2006 World Series | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 499.67 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.02 |
Con
Win | Prince Fielder and Russ Branyan become the first two teammates to hit 60 home runs in a season. | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 26.90 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.77 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon is used in anger in either India or Pakistan. | World | 1/18/2007 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 500 CON | 549.99 |
Con
Win | Castro dead. | World | 1/18/2007 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 63 CON | 111.28 |
Con
Win | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 20 CON | 22.15 |
Con
Win | Internal corruption and violence in Nigeria causes a U.S. intervention. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.19 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.11 |
Con
Win | A prominent Democratic Party politician (current or former: Senator, Representative, Cabinet Officer, or Governor) will be accused of financially benefiting from the U.N. Iraqi Oil-For-Food Program. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 12.62 | 1.09 | 200 CON | 217.22 |
Con
Win | Anbar province will declare its independence from Iraq. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 22.01 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.48 |
Con
Win | United Kingdom will withdraw from the F35 JSF program. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 11.81 | 1.09 | 641 CON | 700.27 |
Con
Win | A major official of the EU or any European country will lose his or her job for publicly denying the Holocaust or praising Nazi Germany. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 2.95 | 1.51 | 500 CON | 756.15 |
Con
Lose | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2006 hurricane season. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.82 | 2.22 | 671 PRO | 1,219.43 |
Con
Win | At least one Levee is breached in New Orleans, East New Orleans or Jefferson Parrish before the end of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. | US | 12/30/2006 | 13.14 | 1.08 | 300 CON | 324.72 |
Con
Win | A Hurricane hits the Iberian Peninsula during the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 14.35 | 1.07 | 1 CON | 1.07 |
Con
Win | Venezuela attacks Colombia | General | 12/30/2006 | 10.99 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.00 |
Con
Win | Military conflict erupts between India and Pakistan. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.21 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.18 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will NOT run for a second term in the U.S. Senate representing NY State. | US | 12/30/2006 | 30.18 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Win | XM8 uses caseless ammo | US | 12/30/2006 | 153.91 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Tainted MLB Records Will Be Tossed | Sports | 12/30/2006 | 17.19 | 1.06 | 400 CON | 424.71 |
Con
Win | The UN Security Council will impose new sanctions against the Iranian government in response to Iran's threat to resume its uranium enrichment programme.
| Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 17.95 | 1.06 | 1 CON | 1.06 |
Con
Win | Assad regime in Syria falls | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 19.39 | 1.05 | 15 CON | 15.82 |
Con
Win | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.52 |
Con
Win | The three U.S. soldiers charged with murder will be convicted and handed over to an Iraqi courts for sentencing. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 67.77 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Democrat Bill Nelson will NOT be re-elected to the U.S. Senate representing Florida. | US | 12/30/2006 | 14.52 | 1.07 | 242 CON | 259.90 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai will be overthrown in a coup or assassinated. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 10.94 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.03 |
Con
Win | President Chen in Taiwan will be overthrown by the people and force to resign | China | 10/21/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | UN troop strength in Lebanon will reach 15,000 by the end of September. | Middle East | 10/21/2006 | 150.81 | 1.01 | 339 CON | 341.26 |
Con
Win | World War 3 Is Coming In 2006 | China | 10/21/2006 | 25.49 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.08 |
Con
Win | The United States will attempt to intercept and shoot down North Korea's missile test | World | 10/21/2006 | 24.61 | 1.04 | 15 CON | 15.64 |
Con
Win | Japan & Tiawan, in defence against the perceived growing threat from China, sign a mutual defence agreement by 2006. | China | 10/21/2006 | 28.15 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.37 |
Con
Win | Kazahkstan government becomes offical (even if temporary) a pro-communist regime takes power. | World | 7/14/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Lose | North Korea will launch its Taepodong-2 missle in defiance of the Inernational community. | World | 7/14/2006 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 300 CON | 544.93 |
Con
Win | the US Congress will vote funding to study the reactivation of the USS Iowa BB61 and the USS Wisconsin BB64. | US | 6/1/2006 | 29.54 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.35 |
Con
Win | Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) | China | 6/1/2006 | 15.43 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 106.93 |
Con
Win | The United States conducts avowed military operations in an attempt to destroy or delay the Iranian nuclear weapons program. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 3.52 | 1.40 | 1000 CON | 1,396.40 |
Con
Win | Bashir Assad is assasinated in Syria causing an Islamic fundamentilist revolution within its borders. US forces debate moving into Syria to stabilize region.
| Middle East | 4/10/2006 | 20.93 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.02 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.04 |
Con
Win | Ariel Sharon loses in a no confidence vote Binyamin Natanyahu becomes Israel's new Prime Minister. | Middle East | 3/12/2006 | 15.42 | 1.07 | 260 CON | 278.03 |
Con
Win | Fundamentalist Islamic supporters kidnap a local prominent citizien of the USA in the USA and behead him in the USA when their demands are not met. | Terrorism | 3/12/2006 | 8.78 | 1.13 | 25 CON | 28.21 |
Con
Lose | Formal decision reached to relocate at least half of all American troops based in Western Europe to Eastern Europe or Middle East. | US | 3/12/2006 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 5 PRO | 21.63 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.03 |
Con
Win | Asian Bird Flu is Red Chinese biowar WMD. | China | 1/24/2006 | 145.90 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein is featured in a Cheetos or Doritos commercial. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 38.13 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.27 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.10 | 11.14 | 300 PRO | 329.57 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.15 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.21 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorists will successfully smuggle WMD into the U.S. via Mexico. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 18.43 | 1.06 | 5 CON | 5.29 |
Con
Win | North Korea and Iran will form an alliance and try to nuke Israel. | World | 1/24/2006 | 175.08 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.11 |
Con
Win | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 100 CON | 193.24 |
Con
Win | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 50 CON | 64.66 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.63 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Afghanistan. | US | 1/24/2006 | 12.86 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.42 |
Con
Lose | The US begins covert military strikes against Baathist camps and leaders in Syria. | Terrorism | 12/10/2005 | 1.49 | 3.03 | 50 PRO | 74.67 |
Con
Win | Chicago Cubs win the World Series | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 91.51 | 1.01 | 1001 CON | 1,012.06 |
Con
Win | Iraq Al Qaeda leader Zarqawi is killed or captured prior to the January election. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 1.89 | 2.12 | 50 CON | 106.14 |
Con
Win | Exchange rate will fall below 7.80 Chinese Renminbi (Yuan) per dollar on or before 30 September 2005
| China | 10/7/2005 | 6.85 | 1.17 | 400 CON | 468.38 |
Con
Lose | Iran brought before the UN Security Council by United States/Allies for possible sanctions. | World | 10/7/2005 | 3.49 | 1.40 | 25 PRO | 87.37 |
Con
Win | Regime change in Syria | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 17.30 | 1.06 | 150 CON | 159.20 |
Pro
Win | Kofi Annan is still U.N. Secretary General | World | 10/7/2005 | 1.03 | 34.26 | 200 PRO | 206.01 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 70 CON | 75.19 |
Con
Win | US announces plans to privatize Fannie Mae | US | 10/7/2005 | 33.07 | 1.03 | 15 CON | 15.47 |
Con
Win | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 400 CON | 493.68 |
Con
Win | Multiple, simultaneous shootdowns of commercial aircraft by terrorists. | Terrorism | 9/22/2005 | 8.91 | 1.13 | 75 CON | 84.48 |
Pro
Win | Brewers sign Ben Sheets to a contract extension. | Sports | 9/22/2005 | 5.09 | 1.24 | 1 PRO | 5.09 |
Con
Win | The EU will lift the arms embargo against China, despite Administration protests. | Europe | 9/22/2005 | 1.60 | 2.68 | 25 CON | 67.00 |
Con
Win | A Category 5 hurricane will make landfall in Florida. | US | 9/22/2005 | 16.49 | 1.06 | 150 CON | 159.69 |
Pro
Win | Israel completes withdrawal from Gaza Strip, including removal of all settlements therein. | Middle East | 9/22/2005 | 1.27 | 4.64 | 5 PRO | 6.37 |
Pro
Win | The death toll from Katrina will exceed 300 as determined two weeks from now. | US | 9/14/2005 | 1.08 | 14.26 | 5 PRO | 5.38 |
Con
Lose | John Bolton will be confirmed as the next Ambassador to the United Nations. | US | 8/10/2005 | 1.31 | 4.24 | 15 PRO | 19.63 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 35 CON | 38.33 |
Con
Lose | NASA will launch Space Shuttle Discovery by July 4th. | Sci/Tech | 7/6/2005 | 1.47 | 3.12 | 25 PRO | 36.79 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 20 CON | 21.07 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 20 CON | 20.56 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.51 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 475 CON | 518.84 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 825 CON | 918.27 |
Con
Win | Pentagon announces that XSS-11 microsat will be explicitly tested to fill ASAT role | Sci/Tech | 6/10/2005 | 33.56 | 1.03 | 25 CON | 25.77 |
Pro
Win | Bush nominee Paul Wolfowitz gets approved by World Bank Board as next Bank President. | World | 6/10/2005 | 1.06 | 18.58 | 5 PRO | 5.28 |
Con
Win | US forces in Iraq decline to under 60,000. | Middle East | 6/10/2005 | 4.72 | 1.27 | 500 CON | 634.26 |
Con
Win | In the first half of 2005, the President will announce plans to pull most or all U.S. troops out of Iraq. | Iraq | 5/31/2005 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 510 CON | 584.24 |
Con
Win | Syrian troops withdraw completely from Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.21 | 1.83 | 60 CON | 109.55 |
Con
Win | England win the Six nations with a Grandslam. | Sports | 5/31/2005 | 12.81 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.85 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 19 CON | 19.73 |
Con
Win | US sends large-scale stabilization force to Darfur after presidential election. | World | 5/11/2005 | 16.05 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.33 |
Con
Win | Kurd vs. Sunni vs. Shiite civil war explodes in Iraq. US troops caught in middle. | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 2.84 | 1.54 | 5 CON | 7.72 |
Pro
Win | The Vatican will have to appoint a new Pope. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.22 | 5.51 | 185 PRO | 226.00 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.30 |
Con
Win | US bombs the Iranian nuclear facilities to stop work on nuclear weapons. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 11.44 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.39 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.19 |
Pro
Win | The Montreal Expos do NOT move to Washington D.C. in 2005. | Sports | 4/17/2005 | 6.99 | 1.17 | 80 PRO | 559.55 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 54.95 |
Con
Win | US Army adopts 6.8mm round for its new M-8 assault rifle. Heavier round favored because it is deadlier than 5.56mm round. | US | 4/17/2005 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 300 CON | 395.42 |
Con
Win | Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 9.55 | 1.12 | 344 CON | 384.21 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.36 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda attempts repeat of Beslan massacre in Europe | Terrorism | 3/15/2005 | 18.40 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.87 |
Pro
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be cancelled. | Sports | 2/20/2005 | 1.05 | 20.28 | 2 PRO | 2.10 |
Con
Win | The U.S. (with E.U. acquiescence) bombs targets relating to the Iranian nuclear program. | Middle East | 2/20/2005 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 20 CON | 23.79 |
Con
Win | Red sox free agents Jason Varitek and Orlando Cabrera will both stay with the red sox for 2005. | Sports | 2/3/2005 | 8.65 | 1.13 | 117 CON | 132.29 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi elections occur on January 30, 2005 as scheduled with the majority of eligible Iraqis participating. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 65 PRO | 89.65 |
Con
Win | The UN will declare the Iraqi elections invalid and illegitimate | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 2.74 | 1.58 | 175 CON | 275.80 |
Con
Win | Leader of the main al-Qaeda cell in North America is caught and found to be an American (born) citizen. | Terrorism | 1/30/2005 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 400 CON | 515.37 |
Con
Win | US Cancels F-22 fighter. | US | 1/30/2005 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.69 |
Con
Win | Eastern Ukraine Secedes in election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 16.61 | 1.06 | 5 CON | 5.32 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich will use his military and police to violently suppress the Opposition protesters against his re-election. | General | 1/30/2005 | 9.24 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.07 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 50 PRO | 50.95 |
Con
Win | EU launches sanctions on the Ukraine govt over the continuing electoral standoff there. EU refrains from referring the issue to the United Nations. | Europe | 1/4/2005 | 23.42 | 1.04 | 4 CON | 4.18 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 6.86 | 1.17 | 200 CON | 234.13 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 5 CON | 5.61 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 15 CON | 16.78 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 10 PRO | 10.29 |
Con
Win | In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection. | US | 1/4/2005 | 6.56 | 1.18 | 150 CON | 176.98 |
Con
Win | If George Bush wins the election he will dramatically increase the military presence in Iraq in an effort to bring the war to a conclusion. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.80 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.39 |
Con
Win | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.37 |
Con
Win | Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons will be used in a terrorist attack in Aisa, Europe or North America before the new year. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 5.84 | 1.21 | 250 CON | 301.67 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 5 CON | 6.25 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 30 CON | 32.46 |
Con
Win | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 140 CON | 184.49 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 15 PRO | 17.28 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 70 CON | 105.79 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.15 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.18 |
Con
Win | Major Islamic terrorist attack attempted in Australia in the fortnight immediately before the Federal Election. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 7.44 | 1.16 | 5 CON | 5.78 |
Con
Win | Revolution in Iran | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 100 CON | 176.98 |
Con
Win | UN imposes trade sanctions on Iran for failure to cooperate with IAE Comission. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 6.89 | 1.17 | 70 CON | 81.89 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 10 CON | 12.01 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 10 CON | 17.43 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 265 CON | 282.68 |
Con
Win | Terririst attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 20.08 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.52 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.05 |
Con
Win | Islamic Terrorists use a nuclear (including dirty bombs), biological or chemical weapon against the west, on any scale. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 320 CON | 430.27 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 5 CON | 5.59 |
Pro
Win | The Federal Reserve will raise the Fed Funds rate at the December 14 meeting. | US | 12/30/2004 | 1.08 | 14.14 | 9 PRO | 9.69 |
Con
Win | Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq. | Terrorism | 12/30/2004 | 98.59 | 1.01 | 40 CON | 40.41 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.52 |
Con
Lose | If President Bush is re-elected, the United States will launch a major offensive to take control of Fallujah in December with combined US and Iraqi government forces | Iraq | 12/22/2004 | 1.46 | 3.17 | 55 PRO | 80.37 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.03 |
Con
Win | Scott Peterson will NOT receive the death penalty for murdering his wife and unborn child. | US | 12/22/2004 | 9.34 | 1.12 | 125 CON | 139.99 |
Con
Win | Another hurricane (Category 1 or higher) will strike Florida this hurricane season. | US | 12/6/2004 | 44.04 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.58 |
Con
Win | Turkey will be accepted into the EU | World | 12/6/2004 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 5 CON | 5.54 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 10 PRO | 10.14 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.05 |
Con
Win | The AUC demobilization collapses, leading to a tacit alliance between the AUC and the Colombian government against FARC. | World | 12/6/2004 | 14.99 | 1.07 | 750 CON | 803.62 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean financial and civil meltdown causes South African intervention to rectify. Mugabe flees to third country to avoid trail for crimes against humanity. | World | 12/6/2004 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.39 |
Con
Win | Scott Peterson will be found NOT GUILTY of murdering his wife and unborn child. | General | 11/12/2004 | 11.33 | 1.10 | 1 CON | 1.10 |
Pro
Win | National elections in Afghanistan. | World | 11/9/2004 | 1.33 | 4.01 | 80 PRO | 106.59 |
Con
Win | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 155 CON | 298.63 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.02 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 580 CON | 634.25 |
Pro
Lose | Sinclair Broadcasting Group, caving in to pressure, will NOT air anti-Kerry documentary. | US | 11/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.37 | 25 CON | 34.14 |
Con
Win | National League Team wins 2004 World Series. | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 5.16 | 1.24 | 422 CON | 523.54 |
Con
Lose | Taiwan acquires the Ticonderoga-class CGs the U.S. Navy is retiring. | China | 11/3/2004 | 5.02 | 1.25 | 10 PRO | 50.20 |
Con
Lose | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 5 PRO | 8.13 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 2 CON | 2.29 |
Con
Win | Anaheim Angels win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 275 CON | 275.83 |
Con
Win | Los Angeles Dodgers win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 510.00 | 1.00 | 225 CON | 225.44 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 2 PRO | 2.31 |
Pro
Win | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 25 PRO | 50.94 |
Pro
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will hit $53 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 1.04 | 25.17 | 5 PRO | 5.21 |
Pro
Win | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 1 PRO | 1.09 |
Con
Win | Kerry revealed before Election Day to been given an Other-than-Honorable or Dishonorable Discharge from the U.S. military during the Vietnam War | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.75 | 1.27 | 12 CON | 15.20 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EDT on Wednesday, November 3rd, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 5 CON | 8.63 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 300 CON | 363.49 |
Con
Win | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 2 CON | 2.59 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EST on Tuesday, November 9th, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.60 | 1.22 | 15 CON | 18.26 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 25 CON | 30.36 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 20 CON | 21.54 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 50 CON | 62.49 |
Con
Win | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 50 CON | 138.93 |
Pro
Win | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 3 PRO | 3.33 |
Con
Win | The investigators of the CBS National Guard memo scandal make their report public before the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.05 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.83 |
Con
Win | Homeland Security (FBI, CIA, Etc.) will announce they successfully foiled a terrorist attempt to disrupt the U.S. Presidential Election within one week of the Election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 60 CON | 85.19 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.10 |
Con
Win | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 20 CON | 20.92 |
Con
Lose | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 35 PRO | 86.01 |
Con
Win | AlQaeda will attempt a major attack on US soil within a week of the US elections, in order to influence electoral outcome, as well as to grab headlines | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 2.81 | 1.55 | 30 CON | 46.57 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden is proven captured or killed before the November elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 5.39 | 1.23 | 40 CON | 49.12 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 200 CON | 263.75 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 30 CON | 32.61 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 5 CON | 6.38 |
Con
Win | Forged Dan Rather Memos will be shown to have emerged either directly from the Kerry campaign or from a pro-Democrat 527 organization (such as moveon etc.) | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 5 CON | 6.63 |
Con
Lose | Responsibility for the Abhu Ghraib incident will be charged to an officer with rank lower than Lt. Colonel. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 5 PRO | 11.76 |
Pro
Lose | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 100 CON | 145.34 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 50 PRO | 51.39 |
Con
Win | Yankees sweep the Red Sox | Sports | 10/20/2004 | 3.44 | 1.41 | 179 CON | 252.48 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai is assassinated before the Afghan elections. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 17.85 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.97 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 5 CON | 5.53 |
Con
Win | A Canadian Team Wins the X-Prize. | Sci/Tech | 10/6/2004 | 25.12 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.83 |
Pro
Lose | The X-Prize is won, an attempt to privately launch a shuttle twice within 14 days. | Sci/Tech | 10/4/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 5 CON | 16.71 |
Con
Lose | North Korea is caught proliferating nuclear materials. | World | 10/3/2004 | 10.23 | 1.11 | 10 PRO | 102.25 |
Con
Win | For his role in the National Guard memo scandal, Dan Rather resigns or is fired as anchor of the CBS Evening News by the 1st of October. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.37 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.21 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers finish above .500. | Sports | 10/1/2004 | 44.02 | 1.02 | 161 CON | 164.74 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.84 |
Con
Lose | Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.63 | 1.04 | 30 PRO | 739.00 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 225 CON | 226.53 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 250 CON | 267.38 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 55.93 |
Con
Win | WMD attack against London. | Terrorism | 9/7/2004 | 8.39 | 1.14 | 20 CON | 22.71 |
Pro
Lose | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 25 CON | 110.02 |
Con
Win | Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualties | Terrorism | 9/3/2004 | 16.25 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.64 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden captured | Terrorism | 6/30/2004 | 1.70 | 2.44 | 200 CON | 487.03 |
Con
Lose | A definitive link is made between Al Quaeda and the ETA with regard to the bombings in Madrid | Terrorism | 4/9/2004 | 6.08 | 1.20 | 150 PRO | 911.83 |
Pro
Lose | Insurgent fatalities occur in Iraq. | Iraq | 3/30/2004 | 1.01 | 77.30 | 2 CON | 154.60 |
