| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Pro
Win | Regardless of who wins the 2008 elections, there will be no US ratified re-negotiation of NAFTA for that president''s term in office. | General | 1/26/2013 | 1.01 | 88.73 | 5 PRO | 5.06 |
Con
Win | Iran exerts dominance over Iraq, before end of Obama 1st term. | Iraq | 1/26/2013 | 8.76 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.29 |
Con
Lose | Afghan government will pressure the US to remove its military presence from Afghan soil. | General | 1/1/2013 | 7.28 | 1.16 | 5 PRO | 36.39 |
Con
Win | Germany leaves the Euro. | Europe | 1/1/2013 | 5.28 | 1.23 | 5 CON | 6.17 |
Con
Win | Iran becomes a military dictatorship under the IRGC. No civilian rule. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 3.86 | 1.35 | 10 CON | 13.49 |
Con
Lose | Gold will fall below $1400 per oz by 12/31/12 | Europe | 1/1/2013 | 63.20 | 1.02 | 5 PRO | 316.00 |
Con
Lose | Gold hits $2,000 an ounce. | General | 1/1/2013 | 19.31 | 1.05 | 15 PRO | 289.66 |
Con
Lose | National health Plan causes quality of care to severely drop in the US | US | 12/13/2012 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 10 PRO | 37.50 |
Pro
Lose | Obama re-elected | US | 11/8/2012 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 10 CON | 18.77 |
Con
Lose | Republicans gain control of the Senate in the 2012 election. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.31 | 4.27 | 5 PRO | 6.53 |
Con
Lose | Obama will be a one term president. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 15 PRO | 26.88 |
Pro
Lose | Elizabeth Warren defeats Scott Brown for the Mass. Senate seat. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 20 CON | 78.82 |
Con
Win | The upcoming elections this November are suspended. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 15 CON | 15.00 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans increase their number of seats in the House of Representatives. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.07 | 16.00 | 5 PRO | 5.33 |
Con
Win | Prior to the 2012 general election, documents will be provided proving that Pres. Obama is not a natural born citizen of the US. | US | 11/5/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Con
Win | Obama visits Israel before the 2012 election. | US | 11/4/2012 | 22.50 | 1.05 | 5 CON | 5.23 |
Con
Lose | October surprise: massive rioting based on either race or unions in support of Obama in an attempt to sway or suspend the elections. | US | 11/4/2012 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 5 PRO | 7.50 |
Con
Win | In an effort to shore up his re-election prospects, Obama orders US military action against Iran to take out their nuclear capabilities. | US | 11/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Pro
Win | GM will still be owned by the Federal Government at the end of the Obama Presidency | US | 11/4/2012 | 1.59 | 2.69 | 20 PRO | 31.84 |
Con
Win | Hugo Chavez dies before the Venezuelan election happens. | World | 10/8/2012 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 10 CON | 19.00 |
Con
Lose | President Obama orders the release of oil from Americas strategic petroleum reserve | US | 10/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 PRO | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Obama dumps Biden, and chooses someone else as his VP running mate in the 2012 election. | US | 9/30/2012 | 2.31 | 1.77 | 30 CON | 52.98 |
Con
Win | Al Qaida launches a terrorist attack at the London Olympics. | Terrorism | 9/1/2012 | 6.00 | 1.20 | 5 CON | 6.00 |
Con
Lose | Jeb Bush is the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 6.50 | 1.18 | 2 PRO | 13.00 |
Con
Lose | Virginia Governor McDonnell becomes the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 6.25 | 1.19 | 4 PRO | 25.00 |
Pro
Lose | NASAs latest rover, Curiosity (Mars Science Laboratory - MSL), will successfully land on Mars in operational condition by the end of 2012. | Sci/Tech | 8/7/2012 | 1.24 | 5.10 | 5 CON | 25.52 |
Con
Lose | The Prime Minister has sacked the Defense Chief in Pakistan. The military attempts a coup detat to regain control. | Middle East | 8/2/2012 | 101.50 | 1.01 | 2 PRO | 203.00 |
Con
Win | The Euro ceases to exist as a currency. | General | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | War between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran | Middle East | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Animal rights or Ecological terrorists kill at least 1 civilian in the continental United States, whether as collateral damage, or as part of deliberately lethal terror attacks. | Terrorism | 6/30/2012 | 11.48 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 10.95 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State in order to head the World Bank. | US | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Greece leaves the Euro, and goes back to the drachma. | Europe | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | The Supreme Court severs and overturns the mandate, but keeps the rest of the legislation known as "Obamacare" intact. | US | 6/28/2012 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.08 |
Con
Lose | The Supreme Court overturns "Obamacare" in its entirety. | US | 6/28/2012 | 1.22 | 5.45 | 15 PRO | 18.37 |
Con
Win | Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee. | US | 6/10/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Lose | Newt Gingrich becomes the Republican nominee. | US | 5/31/2012 | 42.71 | 1.02 | 7 PRO | 299.00 |
Pro
Lose | Mitt Romney becomes the Republican Candidate for President. | US | 5/31/2012 | 1.20 | 6.00 | 5 CON | 30.00 |
Con
Win | The Republican partys caucus/primary system fails to produce a clear nominee, and the Republicans have a brokered convention. | US | 5/31/2012 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 4 CON | 8.00 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich withdraws from the Republican primaries. | US | 4/15/2012 | 1.12 | 9.33 | 2 CON | 18.67 |
Con
Lose | The "Arab Spring" comes to Russia, and Putin Falls. | Russia | 4/4/2012 | 18.00 | 1.06 | 5 PRO | 90.00 |
Con
Win | At least one member of the Arab League attacks Syria militarily. | Middle East | 3/31/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Greece defaults. | Europe | 3/31/2012 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 110 CON | 330.20 |
Con
Win | Syria unleashes terror attacks, either by itself or through its proxies, against the Arabian countries (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc.) in the Arab League that have called for the boycott. | Middle East | 3/31/2012 | 21.55 | 1.05 | 5 CON | 5.24 |
Con
Win | War between Turkey and Israel. | Middle East | 3/31/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Obama has now said that the SEALs made the decision to kill Bin Laden. Obama throws the SEALs under the bus, and charges are brought against them. | US | 3/31/2012 | 1.28 | 4.57 | 200 CON | 914.20 |
Con
Win | The revolution in Syria succeeds in overthrowing Assad and the ruling leadership. | Middle East | 3/2/2012 | 6.48 | 1.18 | 10 CON | 11.82 |
Con
Lose | Terrorists detonate either a nuclear device or a "dirty bomb" in Russia. | Russia | 3/2/2012 | 4.22 | 1.31 | 5 PRO | 21.09 |
Con
Lose | Massive rioting in North Korea leades to civil disorder. | China | 3/2/2012 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 5 PRO | 72.75 |
Con
Lose | The Muslim Brotherhood takes over the Egyptian government, and marginalizes the army. | Middle East | 3/2/2012 | 7.03 | 1.17 | 5 PRO | 35.14 |
Con
Lose | Incursion into Somalia by a country not neighboring. Number of troop or duration irrelevant, as long as it involves deliberate use of conventional forces. | World | 2/19/2012 | 3.57 | 1.39 | 20 PRO | 71.43 |
Pro
Win | The Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. | Sports | 2/6/2012 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3 PRO | 6.00 |
Con
Win | Janet Napolitano loses her job as a result of Operation Fast and Furious. | US | 2/2/2012 | 4.18 | 1.31 | 30 CON | 39.42 |
Con
Lose | Eric Holder resigns as a result of the ATF "gun walker" scandal. | US | 2/2/2012 | 8.40 | 1.14 | 5 PRO | 42.00 |
Con
Lose | Khalid Sheik Mohammed does not stand trial or go before a military tribunal during the remainder of Obamas presidency. | US | 1/25/2012 | 1.17 | 6.95 | 210 PRO | 245.31 |
Con
Win | There is an assassination attempt on Sarah Palin. | US | 1/22/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Herman Cain becomes the Republican nominee for President. | US | 1/9/2012 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 20 CON | 40.00 |
Con
Lose | Newt Gingrich wins the Iowa caucus. | US | 1/4/2012 | 10.20 | 1.11 | 5 PRO | 51.00 |
Pro
Win | Mitt Romney wins the Iowa caucus. | US | 1/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 PRO | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Hugo Chavez dies. | General | 1/2/2012 | 51.00 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.10 |
Con
Win | Americans assisting forces opposing the LRA accused of suborning human rights abuses before end of 2011. | World | 1/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Tim Geithner resigns. | US | 1/1/2012 | 4.67 | 1.27 | 15 CON | 19.09 |
Con
Lose | The state of California experiences what would be called "sovereign default," but what the rest of us refer to as bankruptcy. | US | 1/1/2012 | 7.50 | 1.15 | 5 PRO | 37.50 |
Con
Win | The Kim family gets deposed, and is replaced by a military junta. | China | 1/1/2012 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 15 CON | 17.36 |
Con
Win | The recently passed legislation, popularly know as "Obamacare," gets repealed. | US | 1/1/2012 | 4.91 | 1.26 | 5 CON | 6.28 |
Con
Win | The United States and Iran achieve a diplomatic break-through, and resume relations. | Middle East | 1/1/2012 | 4.52 | 1.28 | 20 CON | 25.68 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies. | World | 1/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Open revolt in China. | China | 1/1/2012 | 78.60 | 1.01 | 2 CON | 2.03 |
Con
Lose | NPR gets defunded. | General | 1/1/2012 | 26.67 | 1.04 | 5 PRO | 133.33 |
Con
Win | The founder of wikileaks, Julian Assange, gets assassinated. | General | 1/1/2012 | 5.11 | 1.24 | 20 CON | 24.87 |
Con
Win | Israeli Strike Leads to War | Middle East | 12/31/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Lose | At some point during the year The House of Representatives approval rating will be higher than Obamas. | US | 12/31/2011 | 17.66 | 1.06 | 10 PRO | 176.57 |
Con
Lose | detroit files for bankruptcy in 2011 | US | 12/31/2011 | 10.35 | 1.11 | 10 PRO | 103.50 |
Con
Win | The S&P 500 Stock Index will close below 1,000 before 31 December 2011. | US | 12/30/2011 | 2.23 | 1.81 | 20 CON | 36.24 |
Con
Lose | The price of gold will hit or exceed $2,000 an ounce. | General | 12/30/2011 | 1.94 | 2.06 | 15 PRO | 29.10 |
Con
Win | Military coup detat in Turkey. | Europe | 11/15/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Con
Win | Palestine gets statehood from the UN. | Middle East | 11/1/2011 | 8.95 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.26 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin will run for president in 2012. | US | 10/5/2011 | 2.02 | 1.98 | 20 CON | 39.53 |
Con
Win | Greece defaults. | General | 10/1/2011 | 10.00 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.11 |
Con
Lose | A western power (the US, EU, UN, or anyone else) comes to the aid of the rebels in Syria. | Middle East | 10/1/2011 | 3.09 | 1.48 | 5 PRO | 15.43 |
Con
Win | The Jordanian government collapses. The Royal family flees the country. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 12.55 | 1.09 | 110 CON | 119.53 |
Con
Win | The Libyan conflict results in a stalemate. Neither side can win, so Libya splits into two states; Khaddafi controlled in the west, rebel controlled in the east. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Pro
Lose | The Libyan rebels (with or without external aid) defeat Khaddafy and his backers. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.15 | 7.75 | 10 CON | 77.51 |
Pro
Lose | Ghaddafi gets overthrown in Libya. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.27 | 4.65 | 30 CON | 139.38 |
Con
Lose | The President and the Republicans fail to reach a compromise on the debt ceiling, and no deal is made by midnight on 8/2/11. | US | 8/3/2011 | 7.00 | 1.17 | 5 PRO | 35.00 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State. | US | 7/1/2011 | 59.00 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.72 |
Con
Win | The government of Iran gets overthrown. | Middle East | 6/30/2011 | 1,177.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Pro
Win | Anthony Weiner resigns from congress before the next election. | US | 6/16/2011 | 17.67 | 1.06 | 5 PRO | 88.33 |
Con
Lose | Turkey leaves, or is kicked out of, NATO. | Middle East | 6/1/2011 | 136.42 | 1.01 | 2 PRO | 272.83 |
Con
Lose | The current leader of Yemen falls. | Middle East | 6/1/2011 | 1.05 | 22.50 | 5 PRO | 5.23 |
Con
Win | Donald Trump becomes the Republican candidate for President. | US | 5/16/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Con
Lose | The next terror attack in the US after Times Square will be initially blamed on either "right wingers" or tea partiers, by a mayor or higher level politician, long before the facts become clear. | Terrorism | 5/11/2011 | 109.40 | 1.01 | 6 PRO | 656.40 |
Pro
Lose | Robert Gates resigns as Secretary of Defense. | US | 4/27/2011 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Lose | The UN Commission formally accuses HizbAllah of the assasination of Rafik Hariri. | Middle East | 3/31/2011 | 27.52 | 1.04 | 10 PRO | 275.20 |
Pro
Win | Gas prices hit $5.00 a gallon by Labor Day. | US | 3/5/2011 | 4.29 | 1.30 | 5 PRO | 21.43 |
Con
Lose | War in the middle east between Israel and Hizballah, Syria, Lebanon, Iran. Israel may fight one of the listed countries, or some combination of them, including all of them. | Middle East | 3/1/2011 | 118.00 | 1.01 | 3 PRO | 354.00 |
Con
Lose | Palestinian complaints about possible resumption of construction in Jerusalem lead to dissolution of peace talks, irrelevant of whether the construction was actually restarting. | Middle East | 2/23/2011 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 5 PRO | 55.00 |
Pro
Lose | There will be a clash on the high seas, and neither the US or Russia will be the aggressor. | World | 1/30/2011 | 1.05 | 21.00 | 5 CON | 105.00 |
Con
Win | Obama administration indicts senior elected official for authorizing torture. | US | 1/1/2011 | 23.29 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.79 |
