| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon is used in anger in either India or Pakistan. | World | 1/18/2007 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 3000 CON | 3,299.94 |
Con
Win | Asian bird flu epidemic turns into human pandemic | World | 12/30/2006 | 5.99 | 1.20 | 3000 CON | 3,601.08 |
Con
Win | Japan & Tiawan sign mutual defence agreements against China | China | 10/21/2006 | 17.33 | 1.06 | 1 CON | 1.06 |
Con
Win | Japan & Tiawan, in defence against the perceived growing threat from China, sign a mutual defence agreement by 2006. | China | 10/21/2006 | 28.15 | 1.04 | 1 CON | 1.04 |
Con
Win | Kazahkstan government becomes offical (even if temporary) a pro-communist regime takes power. | World | 7/14/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.42 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorists will successfully smuggle WMD into the U.S. via Mexico. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 18.43 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.57 |
Con
Win | North Korea and Iran will form an alliance and try to nuke Israel. | World | 1/24/2006 | 175.08 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.06 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.63 |
Con
Win | Next use of nuclear weapons in anger. Can be a terorist device provided it produces a true detonation and not merely a messy fizzle. | Terroism | 1/24/2006 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 100 CON | 115.72 |
Con
Win | American Invasion of Iran Officially Commences. Defined as the first embed entering Iran w/o Iranian govt. permission, because our SOF will have already been operating there for some time. | US | 11/10/2005 | 6.13 | 1.20 | 2000 CON | 2,390.07 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.42 |
Con
Win | US and non-Iraqi allies have fewer than 100,000 troops in Iraq | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 3000 CON | 4,182.27 |
Con
Win | Within one year, hard evidence is found that Osama bin Laden is alive and is running Al Qaeda from Pakistan. Due to "diplomatic" reasons, U.S. Armed Forces will be unable to act on this information. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.74 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.11 |
Con
Win | Multiple, simultaneous shootdowns of commercial aircraft by terrorists. | Terrorism | 9/22/2005 | 8.91 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.63 |
Con
Win | North and South Korea will engage in a naval skirmish with casualties along their costal border. | World | 9/22/2005 | 4.46 | 1.29 | 100 CON | 128.93 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.53 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 100 CON | 139.35 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.53 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.28 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.04 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 109.23 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 113.11 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.39 |
Pro
Win | Yassir Arafat dies, paving the way for a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 600 PRO | 975.67 |
Con
Win | The U.S. (with E.U. acquiescence) bombs targets relating to the Iranian nuclear program. | Middle East | 2/20/2005 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 1520 CON | 1,807.73 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 10 PRO | 10.19 |
Con
Win | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 10 CON | 19.27 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Lose | Sinclair Broadcasting Group, caving in to pressure, will NOT air anti-Kerry documentary. | US | 11/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.37 | 10 CON | 13.65 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 1 PRO | 1.15 |
Pro
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will hit $53 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 1.04 | 25.17 | 10 PRO | 10.41 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will drop to $47 or less per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 300 CON | 379.30 |
Pro
Win | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 1 PRO | 1.09 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.12 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.45 | 1.29 | 2000 CON | 2,580.20 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.77 |
Pro
Win | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 1 PRO | 1.11 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will reach $60 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | US | 11/3/2004 | 8.22 | 1.14 | 300 CON | 341.55 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.20 |
Con
Win | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | Hostage takers in Iraq will issue a demand to US voters that seek an electoral outcome, vis-a-vis the US Presidential Elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.11 | 1.32 | 680 CON | 898.62 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.87 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.39 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 10 PRO | 10.28 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai is assassinated before the Afghan elections. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 17.85 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.59 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Win | North Korea is caught proliferating nuclear materials. | World | 10/3/2004 | 10.23 | 1.11 | 780 CON | 864.55 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in Europe. | Europe | 10/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.36 | 2000 CON | 2,729.32 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.21 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.84 |
Con
Win | Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.63 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.21 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.03 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.35 |
Con
Win | Bush campaign files lawsuit for collusion between Kerry campaign and MoveOn.org. | US | 9/15/2004 | 207.47 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.05 |
Con
Win | Imam Ali shrine complex is raided succesfully, but major damage occurs to the shrine; thus, sparking a mass Shia upraising. | Iraq | 9/15/2004 | 91.36 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.11 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 300 CON | 335.60 |
Con
Win | WMD attack against London. | Terrorism | 9/7/2004 | 8.39 | 1.14 | 1000 CON | 1,135.26 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 500 PRO | 647.02 |
Con
Win | Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualties | Terrorism | 9/3/2004 | 16.25 | 1.07 | 200 CON | 213.11 |
Con
Win | Highly sophisticated trojan virus program unleashed on the internet, more devastating than ever seen, variants plague internet for months. | Sci/Tech | 5/1/2004 | 8.96 | 1.13 | 1000 CON | 1,125.59 |
