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May 25, 2013
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Pariah's Past Predictions
Last 30 DaysLast 90 DaysOverall
Wins00121
Losses0024
Winnings0.000.00(249.19)
ResultEvent
Category
Settled DatePro ValueCon ValueFutures OwnedValue
Con
Win
Civil unrest will cause the pullout of US forces from Qatar by 2008Middle East1/1/20095.001.251 CON1.25
Con
Win
After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms.US1/8/200823.501.041 CON1.04
Con
Win
Iran will test a nuclear weapon, either openly or without acknowledging it, before 2008Middle East1/8/20082.701.591 CON1.59
Con
Win
During the next presidential administration, bills will be introduced in the House and Senate that would allow non-natural-born US Citizens to run for President.US1/18/20072.111.901 CON1.90
Con
Win
Malaysia the victim of a large-scale Islamic fundamentalist movement resulting in the overthrow of the current government.World1/18/20079.541.121 CON1.12
Con
Win
Last US combat troop removed from Iraq.US1/18/200724.871.041 CON1.04
Con
Win
Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) China6/1/200615.431.071 CON1.07
Con
Win
Formal decision reached to relocate at least half of all American troops based in Western Europe to Eastern Europe or Middle East.US3/12/20064.331.3010 CON13.01
Con
Win
Turkey formally accepted into European Union.Europe3/12/20065.101.2450 CON62.20
Con
Win
Independent Palestinian state created.Middle East3/12/200612.761.091 CON1.09
Con
Win
Major combat operations begin in Iran in 2005 after evidence suggests development of nuclear weapons, and plans to use them against Israeli and/or American interests in Mid-East. Middle East1/24/20061.802.251 CON2.25
Con
Win
North Korea and Iran will form an alliance and try to nuke Israel.World1/24/2006175.081.011 CON1.01
Con
Win
Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration ObjectionsUS1/24/20068.251.141 CON1.14
Con
Win
U.S. invades Baathist Syria from Iraq.US1/24/20064.441.291 CON1.29
Con
Win
USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US deptUS1/24/20064.411.291 CON1.29
Con
Win
Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers.Iraq1/24/200616.851.061 CON1.06
Con
Win
Last US combat troop removed from Afghanistan.US1/24/200612.861.081 CON1.08
Con
Win
North Korea agrees to end its nuclear program and destroy all of its nuclear material.World1/24/20068.601.131 CON1.13
Con
Win
Next use of nuclear weapons in anger. Can be a terorist device provided it produces a true detonation and not merely a messy fizzle.Terroism1/24/20067.361.161 CON1.16
Con
Win
American Invasion of Iran Officially Commences. Defined as the first embed entering Iran w/o Iranian govt. permission, because our SOF will have already been operating there for some time.US11/10/20056.131.201 CON1.20
Con
Lose
Haliburton will be found to have commited overcharging and fraud by Army accountants on no bid contracts for US troop support through subsidiary Brown & Root. US9/22/20052.421.711 PRO2.42
Con
Lose
Conservative mullah elected president in IranWorld8/10/20052.041.961 PRO2.04
Con
Win
Libya is found to have secretly hidden WMD from inspectors, despite its promises.Terrorism8/10/200515.171.071 CON1.07
Con
Win
House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces.Middle East7/6/200510.961.101 CON1.10
Con
Win
Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months.Terrorism7/6/200511.841.091 CON1.09
Con
Win
A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca.Terrorism7/6/20059.851.1110 CON11.13
Con
Win
Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea.World7/6/20058.631.131 CON1.13
Con
Win
US Naval blockaid of Iran enforcing UN resolution that Iran must halt nuclear weapons development activities.Middle East5/31/20053.111.4710 CON14.74
Con
Win
In the first half of 2005, the President will announce plans to pull most or all U.S. troops out of Iraq.Iraq5/31/20057.871.151 CON1.15
Con
Win
Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France.Terrorism5/31/20052.681.601 CON1.60
Pro
Lose
Yassir Arafat dies, paving the way for a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians.Middle East5/31/20051.632.601 CON2.60
Con
Win
Another coup will occur in Venezuela against President Hugo Chavez within the next year.World5/11/20056.681.181 CON1.18
Con
Win
Kurd vs. Sunni vs. Shiite civil war explodes in Iraq. US troops caught in middle.Iraq5/11/20052.841.541 CON1.54
Con
Win
Will Chile grant Bolivia the access to the Pacific that they are asking for.World4/20/2005110.631.011 CON1.01
Con
Win
Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term.US4/17/20052.961.511 CON1.51
Con
Win
China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent.China4/17/200511.111.101 CON1.10
Con
Win
Major al-Qaeda attack in Italy or against a major Italian target abroad.Terrorism4/17/20052.431.701 CON1.70
Con
Win
Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors.Terrorism4/17/20059.551.1210 CON11.17
Con
Win
Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank.World 4/17/2005113.241.012 CON2.02
Con
Win
Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment.World3/15/2005123.931.011 CON1.01
Con
Lose
Carlos Beltran will be signed by the New York Yankees before March 1, 2005.Sports3/15/20055.001.2510 PRO50.01
Con
Win
Al Qaeda attempts repeat of Beslan massacre in EuropeTerrorism3/15/200518.401.061 CON1.06
Con
Win
The U.S. (with E.U. acquiescence) bombs targets relating to the Iranian nuclear program.Middle East2/20/20056.281.191 CON1.19
Con
Win
The interem government due to govern Iraq between July 1 and elections next year does not last until elections, but resigns or is thrown outIraq2/3/200512.321.091 CON1.09
Pro
Win
Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005Iraq2/3/20051.0812.861 PRO1.08
Con
Win
The UN will declare the Iraqi elections invalid and illegitimateIraq2/3/20052.741.582 CON3.15
Con
Win
EU ends the Ukraine election dispute.Russia1/30/20051.001.001 CON1.00
Con
Win
In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection.US1/4/20056.561.181 CON1.18
Con
Lose
If George Bush wins the election he will dramatically increase the military presence in Iraq in an effort to bring the war to a conclusion.Iraq1/4/200513.801.081 PRO13.80
Con
Win
Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year.Iraq1/4/20052.961.5150 CON75.57
Con
Win
Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster.Terrorism1/4/200535.401.031 CON1.03
Con
Lose
National elections in IraqIraq1/4/20052.761.5710 PRO27.55
Con
Win
Breakaway republic from IndonesiaWorld1/4/200545.891.021780 CON1,819.65
Con
Win
U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists.US1/4/200528.761.0411 CON11.40
Con
Lose
Major Islamic terrorist attack attempted in Australia in the fortnight immediately before the Federal Election.Terrorism1/4/20057.441.1610 PRO74.42
Con
Win
Revolution in IranMiddle East1/4/20052.301.77200 CON353.95
Con
Win
UN imposes trade sanctions on Iran for failure to cooperate with IAE Comission.Middle East1/4/20056.891.1760 CON70.19
Con
Win
India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the yearWorld1/4/20055.981.20100 CON120.07
Con
Lose
Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities.Middle East1/4/20052.351.741 PRO2.35
Con
Win
Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government.World1/4/200515.991.0771 CON75.74
Con
Win
Chechnya granted independence by Russia.Russia1/4/2005186.811.011 CON1.01
Pro
Win
The Federal Reserve will raise the Fed Funds rate at the December 14 meeting.US12/30/20041.0814.1410 PRO10.76
Con
Win
Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq.Terrorism12/30/200498.591.01100 CON101.02
Con
Lose
If President Bush is re-elected, the United States will launch a major offensive to take control of Fallujah in December with combined US and Iraqi government forcesIraq12/22/20041.463.172 PRO2.92
Con
Win
Turkey will be accepted into the EUWorld12/6/200410.271.11100 CON110.79
Pro
Lose
US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Iraq12/6/20041.0173.6110 CON736.14
Con
Win
French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UNIraq12/6/2004104.081.011 CON1.01
Con
Win
Zimbabwean financial and civil meltdown causes South African intervention to rectify. Mugabe flees to third country to avoid trail for crimes against humanity.World12/6/200413.901.0810 CON10.78
Pro
Win
National elections in Afghanistan.World11/9/20041.334.011 PRO1.33
Con
Win
Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents.US11/7/2004628.001.002 CON2.00
Con
Win
Someone dies because of political violence during the American presidential election campaign.US11/7/20045.991.201 CON1.20
Con
Win
Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.phpMiddle East11/7/200411.691.0910 CON10.94
Con
Win
Taiwan acquires the Ticonderoga-class CGs the U.S. Navy is retiring.China11/3/20045.021.251 CON1.25
Con
Win
National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election.US11/3/20041.632.602 CON5.19
Pro
Lose
U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249).US11/3/20042.041.96100 CON196.39
Pro
Win
Whoever wins Florida wins the electionUS11/3/20041.0911.611 PRO1.09
Con
Win
By 8pm EDT on Wednesday, November 3rd, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute.US11/3/20042.381.731 CON1.73
Con
Lose
The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%.US11/3/20044.371.301 PRO4.37
Con
Win
Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections.US11/3/20045.661.211 CON1.21
Con
Win
Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)?US11/3/200414.011.08100 CON107.68
Con
Win
John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2.US11/3/20045.001.253 CON3.75
Con
Win
Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states.US11/3/20041.562.78100 CON277.86
Pro
Lose
President Bush is reelected and receives more than 50% of the Popular vote.US11/3/20041.692.451 CON2.45
Pro
Win
Republicans maintain control of Senate.US11/3/20041.1110.031 PRO1.11
Con
Win
George Bush will be assassinated before election.Terrorism11/3/200443.471.021 CON1.02
Con
Win
In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate.US11/3/200452.201.021 CON1.02
Con
Lose
Hostage takers in Iraq will issue a demand to US voters that seek an electoral outcome, vis-a-vis the US Presidential Elections.Terrorism11/3/20044.111.321 PRO4.11
Con
Lose
High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections.US11/3/200422.771.056 PRO136.60
Con
Win
Kerry gets new campaign manager.US11/3/20042.461.691 CON1.69
Con
Lose
AlQaeda will attempt a major attack on US soil within a week of the US elections, in order to influence electoral outcome, as well as to grab headlinesTerrorism11/3/20042.811.55101 PRO283.86
Con
Win
Osama Bin Laden is proven captured or killed before the November elections.Terrorism11/3/20045.391.231 CON1.23
Con
Win
A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law Terrorism11/3/20044.141.32100 CON131.87
Con
Win
Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq.Iraq11/3/200412.481.09383 CON416.37
Con
Lose
Forged Dan Rather Memos will be shown to have emerged either directly from the Kerry campaign or from a pro-Democrat 527 organization (such as moveon etc.)US11/3/20044.071.331 PRO4.07
Con
Win
Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack.Middle East11/3/20046.301.191 CON1.19
Con
Win
Responsibility for the Abhu Ghraib incident will be charged to an officer with rank lower than Lt. Colonel.US11/3/20042.351.741 CON1.74
Pro
Lose
Boston Red Sox win the World SeriesSports10/28/20043.211.451 CON1.45
Pro
Win
Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan.World10/28/20041.0336.9710 PRO10.28
Con
Win
Hamid Karzai is assassinated before the Afghan elections.Terrorism10/9/200417.851.061 CON1.06
Con
Win
Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices.Terrorism10/9/200410.411.111 CON1.11
Con
Win
A Canadian Team Wins the X-Prize.Sci/Tech10/6/200425.121.041 CON1.04
Pro
Lose
The X-Prize is won, an attempt to privately launch a shuttle twice within 14 days.Sci/Tech10/4/20041.433.34100 CON334.25
Con
Win
The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home. Iraq10/3/200430.151.032 CON2.07
Con
Win
Major al-Qaeda attack in Europe.Europe10/3/20043.741.361 CON1.36
Con
Win
For his role in the National Guard memo scandal, Dan Rather resigns or is fired as anchor of the CBS Evening News by the 1st of October.US10/1/200424.371.041 CON1.04
Con
Win
Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister.Europe10/1/200449.081.021 CON1.02
Con
Win
Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. Terrorism10/1/20046.971.171 CON1.17
Con
Win
Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche.US10/1/200424.631.041 CON1.04
Con
Win
North Korea attacks South Korea.World10/1/2004148.311.011 CON1.01
Con
Win
Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan.World10/1/200415.381.071 CON1.07
Pro
Win
Disclplinary action (of any sort)for the Abu Ghraib incident will be faced by an officer with rank of Brig. General or higher.US9/16/20041.383.651 PRO1.38
Con
Win
Bush campaign files lawsuit for collusion between Kerry campaign and MoveOn.org.US9/15/2004207.471.001 CON1.00
Con
Win
Imam Ali shrine complex is raided succesfully, but major damage occurs to the shrine; thus, sparking a mass Shia upraising.Iraq9/15/200491.361.011 CON1.01
Con
Win
Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC)Terrorism9/15/20049.431.121 CON1.12
Con
Win
WMD attack against London. Terrorism9/7/20048.391.141 CON1.14
Pro
Win
300 people arrested during Republican National Convention.US9/4/20041.138.751 PRO1.13
Con
Win
Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualtiesTerrorism9/3/200416.251.0710 CON10.66
Con
Win
Dick Cheney announces that he will not seek the Vice-Presidency in 2004.US9/3/20043.191.461 CON1.46
Con
Lose
oil closes above $50.00World9/1/20046.091.201 PRO6.09
Con
Lose
Peace efforts in Najaf fail and the Imam Ali shrine complex is raided to evict Muqtada al Sadr and his army.Iraq9/1/20044.071.331 PRO4.07
Con
Win
President Bush will attend the Olympics in Greece.US8/28/200419.311.051 CON1.05
Con
Win
An explosion severely damages the Imam Ali shrine. Iraq8/27/200410.701.101 CON1.10
Con
Win
Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004?Iraq8/15/20048.881.131 CON1.13
Pro
Lose
The Supreme Court Rules that detainees at Guantanamo have the right to appeal to the Federal courtsUS8/1/20042.461.69500 CON843.11
Pro
Lose
Major Chenchen attack in RussiaRussia8/1/20041.772.30431 CON991.70
Con
Win
Bob Graham will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee.US7/25/20044.951.251 CON1.25
Con
Win
Hillary Clinton will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee.US7/25/20045.441.231 CON1.23
Con
Win
Tom Vilsack will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee.US7/25/20042.881.531 CON1.53
Con
Win
Bill Richardson will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee.US7/25/200416.841.061 CON1.06
Con
Win
Wesley Clark will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee.US7/25/20045.471.221 CON1.22
Pro
Win
John Edwards will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee.US7/25/20041.522.931 PRO1.52
Con
Win
John McCain will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee.US7/25/20041.001.001 CON1.00
Con
Win
Evan Bayh will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee.US7/25/200417.601.061 CON1.06
Con
Lose
Richard Gephardt will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee.US7/25/20042.441.701 PRO2.44
Con
Win
Chuck Hagel will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee.US7/25/2004106.501.011 CON1.01
Con
Win
9/11 commission explicitly blames BushUS7/23/200414.741.071 CON1.07
Con
Win
Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France.Terrorism7/14/20046.051.201275 CON1,527.31
Con
Win
As a result of the Abu Ghraib scandal, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigns.US6/30/200426.561.0410 CON10.39
Con
Win
Major terrorist attack on Montreal public rail system prior to 06/28/04 Canadian General elections. Terrorism6/29/200459.461.0210 CON10.17
Con
Win
US opens the strategic oil reserves to ease fuel prices.US6/1/20047.681.15500 CON574.84
Con
Win
Civil war erupts in Iraq. Shiites, Sunnites, Kurds attack Coalitian Forces and increasingly also each other.Iraq6/1/20046.351.19100 CON118.68
Con
Win
Terrorist attack in Finland.Terrorism6/1/200488.401.01100 CON101.14
Con
Win
Highly sophisticated trojan virus program unleashed on the internet, more devastating than ever seen, variants plague internet for months. Sci/Tech5/1/20048.961.1398 CON110.31
Con
Win
Hamas stages a terror attack against Americans in revenge for their leaders being killed by the Israelis. Terrorism4/22/200425.081.04500 CON520.76
Con
Win
A definitive link is made between Al Quaeda and the ETA with regard to the bombings in MadridTerrorism4/9/20046.081.20500 CON598.45
 


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