| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.42 |
Con
Win | Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration Objections | US | 1/24/2006 | 8.25 | 1.14 | 75 CON | 85.35 |
Con
Lose | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 29 PRO | 488.55 |
Con
Lose | Iraq Al Qaeda leader Zarqawi is killed or captured prior to the January election. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 1.89 | 2.12 | 20 PRO | 37.81 |
Con
Win | US forces in Iraq decline to under 60,000. | Middle East | 6/10/2005 | 4.72 | 1.27 | 10 CON | 12.69 |
Con
Lose | In the first half of 2005, the President will announce plans to pull most or all U.S. troops out of Iraq. | Iraq | 5/31/2005 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 20 PRO | 157.39 |
Con
Win | Kurd vs. Sunni vs. Shiite civil war explodes in Iraq. US troops caught in middle. | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 2.84 | 1.54 | 75 CON | 115.76 |
Con
Lose | Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term. | US | 4/17/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 20 PRO | 59.11 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in Italy or against a major Italian target abroad. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 2.43 | 1.70 | 50 PRO | 121.25 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.36 |
Con
Win | If George Bush wins the election he will dramatically increase the military presence in Iraq in an effort to bring the war to a conclusion. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.80 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.39 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 45 CON | 56.24 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.82 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 50 CON | 75.57 |
Con
Win | National elections in Iraq | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.76 | 1.57 | 50 CON | 78.49 |
Con
Lose | UN imposes trade sanctions on Iran for failure to cooperate with IAE Comission. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 6.89 | 1.17 | 35 PRO | 241.07 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 60.03 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.67 |
Con
Lose | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 50 PRO | 470.98 |
Con
Lose | If President Bush is re-elected, the United States will launch a major offensive to take control of Fallujah in December with combined US and Iraqi government forces | Iraq | 12/22/2004 | 1.46 | 3.17 | 10 PRO | 14.61 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.05 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.02 |
Con
Win | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 50 CON | 129.83 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 110 CON | 126.17 |
Pro
Lose | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 10 CON | 74.84 |
Pro
Lose | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 140 CON | 274.94 |
Pro
Lose | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 25 CON | 290.22 |
Con
Lose | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 25 PRO | 109.26 |
Con
Lose | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 50 PRO | 700.67 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 10 CON | 12.50 |
Pro
Win | President Bush is reelected and receives more than 50% of the Popular vote. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 150 PRO | 253.77 |
Pro
Win | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 160 PRO | 177.72 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.20 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 5 CON | 5.23 |
Con
Win | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 313 CON | 527.75 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 31 CON | 40.88 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.87 |
Con
Win | Iraqi WMD stockpiles located - in Syria/Bekaa Valley | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 2.77 | 1.56 | 50 CON | 78.21 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.89 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden killed or captured right in time for US elections. | US | 10/16/2004 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 50 PRO | 110.22 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 5 CON | 5.53 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.34 |
Con
Lose | North Korea is caught proliferating nuclear materials. | World | 10/3/2004 | 10.23 | 1.11 | 50 PRO | 511.26 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.21 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 50 CON | 58.38 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.70 |
Con
Win | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 15 CON | 17.56 |
Con
Win | Bush campaign files lawsuit for collusion between Kerry campaign and MoveOn.org. | US | 9/15/2004 | 207.47 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.02 |
Con
Win | Imam Ali shrine complex is raided succesfully, but major damage occurs to the shrine; thus, sparking a mass Shia upraising. | Iraq | 9/15/2004 | 91.36 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.06 |
Con
Win | WMD attack against London. | Terrorism | 9/7/2004 | 8.39 | 1.14 | 10 CON | 11.35 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney announces that he will not seek the Vice-Presidency in 2004. | US | 9/3/2004 | 3.19 | 1.46 | 50 CON | 72.83 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 25 CON | 30.38 |
Con
Win | oil closes above $50.00 | World | 9/1/2004 | 6.09 | 1.20 | 26 CON | 31.11 |
Con
Win | Peace efforts in Najaf fail and the Imam Ali shrine complex is raided to evict Muqtada al Sadr and his army. | Iraq | 9/1/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 30 CON | 39.77 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack in Greece by outside (non-Greek) group(s) during the Olympic Games. | Terrorism | 8/30/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 40 CON | 78.30 |
Con
Win | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 25 CON | 56.55 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.34 |
Con
Lose | Bill Richardson will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 16.84 | 1.06 | 25 PRO | 421.00 |
Con
Lose | Terrorist attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 6/1/2004 | 88.40 | 1.01 | 10 PRO | 883.95 |
