| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Israel and Syria go to war. | Middle East | 3/7/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Israel launches an attack on Gaza that includes ground forces. | Middle East | 3/7/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Italy leaves the Euro. | Europe | 2/13/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Naval Clash in the South China Seas between China and another country. | China | 2/13/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Nuclear device detonated in an American population center. | US | 1/26/2013 | 27.03 | 1.04 | 10 PRO | 270.27 |
Pro
Win | Regardless of who wins the 2008 elections, there will be no US ratified re-negotiation of NAFTA for that president''s term in office. | General | 1/26/2013 | 1.01 | 88.73 | 10 PRO | 10.11 |
Con
Win | Iran exerts dominance over Iraq, before end of Obama 1st term. | Iraq | 1/26/2013 | 8.76 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.29 |
Con
Win | Obama and Congressional leaders announce the US will join with the EU under a common government | US | 1/26/2013 | 18.32 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.58 |
Con
Win | Accusations that the BP escrow fund money has found its way into Democrat operative hands become public. | US | 1/1/2013 | 3.31 | 1.43 | 5 CON | 7.17 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan sign a security and cooperation agreement ending 60+ years of mutual hostility. | World | 1/1/2013 | 5.05 | 1.25 | 10 CON | 12.47 |
Con
Win | Worst gasoline shortages since WWII with prompt calls in Congress to nationalize oil companies. | US | 1/1/2013 | 4.84 | 1.26 | 10 CON | 12.60 |
Con
Win | Man made global warming disaster prophets will reverse direction in the face of record cold. Afterwards, they will warn that "greenhouse gases" cause ice ages. | General | 1/1/2013 | 4.11 | 1.32 | 10 CON | 13.21 |
Con
Win | By 2012, Moslem scholars will publish evidence that Jesus did not die on the cross. | World | 1/1/2013 | 3.06 | 1.49 | 10 CON | 14.86 |
Con
Win | US Congress with the President will outlaw ownership of gold by individuals in the US | US | 1/1/2013 | 30.09 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Win | Federal government rescues New York Times from bankruptcy. | US | 1/1/2013 | 77.00 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.07 |
Con
Win | Afghan government will pressure the US to remove its military presence from Afghan soil. | General | 1/1/2013 | 7.28 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.59 |
Con
Win | President Obama sells Alaska to settle debt and to pay for ambitious social programs. | US | 1/1/2013 | 824.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | US to experience Weimar style hyperinflation before the end of 2012. | US | 1/1/2013 | 8.36 | 1.14 | 5 CON | 5.68 |
Con
Lose | Germany leaves the Euro. | Europe | 1/1/2013 | 5.28 | 1.23 | 10 PRO | 52.76 |
Con
Win | Class action lawsuit opens up the NFL to lesbian and transgender players. | US | 1/1/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Mostly conservative Websites become blocked. Government declares cyber attack emergency. Situation remains unresolved and unclear. | US | 1/1/2013 | 11.33 | 1.10 | 5 CON | 5.48 |
Con
Win | Eric Holder resigns prior to the end of the 1st term of the Obama administration, due to scandal over refusal to enforce the Motor Voter law, or over the New Black Panther Partys voter intimidation. | US | 1/1/2013 | 263.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Real unemployment exceeds 35% under Obama although not reported as such by MSM. | US | 1/1/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Joint force including participation of Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia carry out air strike on Iran. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 34.05 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.30 |
Con
Win | Iran becomes a military dictatorship under the IRGC. No civilian rule. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 3.86 | 1.35 | 10 CON | 13.49 |
Con
Lose | Fidel Castro dies. | World | 1/1/2013 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1 PRO | 2.00 |
Con
Lose | The Assad regime falls. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 46.45 | 1.02 | 1 PRO | 46.45 |
Con
Win | gold will fall below $1400 by 12/31/12 | General | 1/1/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Gold will fall below $1400 per oz by 12/31/12 | Europe | 1/1/2013 | 63.20 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | The Syrian civil war expands to include Iraq. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Spain exits the Euro. | Europe | 1/1/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Chen Guangcheng becomes the figurehead for domestic unrest in China, causing massive economic damage by the end of the year.
| China | 1/1/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Gold hits $2,000 an ounce. | General | 1/1/2013 | 19.31 | 1.05 | 10 PRO | 193.10 |
Con
Win | Greece and Turkey go to war over Cyprus. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | China attacks India by 2013. | China | 1/1/2013 | 27.50 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.38 |
Con
Win | Obama will be the last US president elected under the constitution of 1789 (completed 1787). | US | 1/1/2013 | 20.10 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.52 |
Con
Win | Congress passes law mandating purchase of savings bonds through employer witholding above and beyong that for taxes. | US | 1/1/2013 | 5.91 | 1.20 | 10 CON | 12.04 |
Pro
Win | End of World fails to materialize | World | 12/21/2012 | 1.11 | 9.98 | 10 PRO | 11.11 |
Con
Win | National health Plan causes quality of care to severely drop in the US | US | 12/13/2012 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 10 CON | 13.64 |
Pro
Lose | Catalonia votes to secede from Spain. | Europe | 11/29/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | SECDEF Panetta remains SECDEF for Romney (al a "Gates"). | US | 11/16/2012 | 1.21 | 5.70 | 5 CON | 28.50 |
Pro
Lose | Obama re-elected | US | 11/8/2012 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 10 CON | 18.77 |
Con
Lose | Republicans gain control of the Senate in the 2012 election. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.31 | 4.27 | 10 PRO | 13.06 |
Con
Lose | Obama will be a one term president. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 10 PRO | 17.92 |
Con
Win | Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2012 election. | US | 11/8/2012 | 7.63 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.51 |
Con
Win | Karzai is assassinated in coop. A tacit US complicity come to light after the fact. | Middle East | 11/8/2012 | 8.92 | 1.13 | 5 CON | 5.63 |
Con
Lose | Todd Akin defeats Claire McCaskill for the Missouri senate seat. | US | 11/8/2012 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 1 PRO | 2.57 |
Pro
Lose | Elizabeth Warren defeats Scott Brown for the Mass. Senate seat. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 10 CON | 39.41 |
Con
Lose | George Allen defeats Tim Kaine for the VA senate seat. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.08 | 13.20 | 1 PRO | 1.08 |
Con
Lose | Allan West wins re-election for his congressional seat. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.02 | 62.00 | 1 PRO | 1.02 |
Con
Win | The US presidential election ends in an electoral vote tie of 269-269 (its actually mathematically possible). | US | 11/8/2012 | 6.50 | 1.18 | 5 CON | 5.91 |
Con
Win | The upcoming elections this November are suspended. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans increase their number of seats in the House of Representatives. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.07 | 16.00 | 5 PRO | 5.33 |
Con
Win | Prior to the 2012 general election, documents will be provided proving that Pres. Obama is not a natural born citizen of the US. | US | 11/5/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Voters overiding concern in 2012 will be national security. | US | 11/5/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | States will notify 18-26 year-olds on Medicaid, that their medical insurance coverage is at risk and may be means tested before the November 2012 elections. | US | 11/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Obama visits Israel before the 2012 election. | US | 11/4/2012 | 22.50 | 1.05 | 5 CON | 5.23 |
Con
Win | Tea Party Sunders, costs GOP next Presidential Election. | US | 11/4/2012 | 8.98 | 1.13 | 5 CON | 5.63 |
Con
Win | Iran announces that it has detonated an underground nuclear device. | Middle East | 11/4/2012 | 6.77 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.87 |
Con
Win | Iran tries to block Straits of Hormuz; also launches CW/UW effort to destabilize GCC, in response to an imminent US/GCC/NATO campaign against IGRC and Iranian nuclear weapons program. | Middle East | 11/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | GM will still be owned by the Federal Government at the end of the Obama Presidency | US | 11/4/2012 | 1.59 | 2.69 | 10 PRO | 15.92 |
Con
Win | The Yankees win the American League Championship. | Sports | 10/18/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Turkey invades Syria. | Middle East | 10/16/2012 | 511.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 511.00 |
Con
Lose | Hugo Chavez dies before the Venezuelan election happens. | World | 10/8/2012 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 1 PRO | 2.11 |
Con
Win | The UN takes military action in support of Turkey against Syria for the attack on the Turkish jet. | Middle East | 10/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Obama dumps Biden, and chooses someone else as his VP running mate in the 2012 election. | US | 9/30/2012 | 2.31 | 1.77 | 10 CON | 17.66 |
Con
Win | The NY Mets make the MLB playoffs. | Sports | 9/21/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton becomes Obamas VP Candidate, and Joe Biden becomes Secretary of State. | US | 9/9/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Eric Holder is removed from office due to Fast and Furious. | US | 9/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Mike Huckabee becomes the Republican VP candidate. | US | 8/11/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin is the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Jeb Bush is the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 6.50 | 1.18 | 1 CON | 1.18 |
Con
Lose | Rob Portman (US SEN., OH) becomes the Republican VP candidate. | US | 8/11/2012 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 1 PRO | 11.00 |
Con
Lose | Tim Pawlenty becomes the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Rick Santorum becomes the Republican VP Nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Virginia Governor McDonnell becomes the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 6.25 | 1.19 | 1 CON | 1.19 |
Con
Win | Susannah Martinez becomes the Republican VP nominee. | US | 8/11/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Chris Christie is the Republican VP candidate. | US | 8/11/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | NASAs latest rover, Curiosity (Mars Science Laboratory - MSL), will successfully land on Mars in operational condition by the end of 2012. | Sci/Tech | 8/7/2012 | 1.24 | 5.10 | 10 PRO | 12.44 |
Con
Win | Israel attacks Iran to destroy the nuclear sites. The attack can be either air, commando, or a combination of the two. | Middle East | 8/2/2012 | 40.20 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.13 |
Con
Win | The Prime Minister has sacked the Defense Chief in Pakistan. The military attempts a coup detat to regain control. | Middle East | 8/2/2012 | 101.50 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Hizballah takes over the Lebanese government. | Middle East | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Stephen Chu resigns or gets fired as the head of the DOE as a result of the Solyndra scandal. | US | 6/30/2012 | 216.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 216.00 |
Con
Win | The Euro ceases to exist as a currency. | General | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Detroit files for bankruptcy. | US | 6/30/2012 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 1 CON | 1.82 |
Con
Lose | North Korea has another nuclear test. | China | 6/30/2012 | 51.00 | 1.02 | 1 PRO | 51.00 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State in order to head the World Bank. | US | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Greece leaves the Euro, and goes back to the drachma. | Europe | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Majority of Liberal Supreme Court Justices will vote to completely overturn ObamaCare in an effort to boost federal, state and local Democratic election results November, 2012. | US | 6/28/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The Supreme Court severs and overturns the mandate, but keeps the rest of the legislation known as "Obamacare" intact. | US | 6/28/2012 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 10 PRO | 102.73 |
Con
Lose | The Supreme Court overturns "Obamacare" in its entirety. | US | 6/28/2012 | 1.22 | 5.45 | 10 PRO | 12.25 |
Con
Win | Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee. | US | 6/10/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Scott Walker wins the recall election as Wisconsins Governor. | US | 6/6/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich becomes the Republican nominee. | US | 5/31/2012 | 42.71 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.12 |
Pro
Lose | Mitt Romney becomes the Republican Candidate for President. | US | 5/31/2012 | 1.20 | 6.00 | 1 CON | 6.00 |
Con
Win | The Republican partys caucus/primary system fails to produce a clear nominee, and the Republicans have a brokered convention. | US | 5/31/2012 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1 CON | 2.00 |
Con
Win | The NY Rangers win the Stanley Cup. | Sports | 5/26/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Lose | Obama gets a primary challenge. | US | 5/23/2012 | 2.02 | 1.98 | 10 CON | 19.80 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich withdraws from the Republican primaries. | US | 4/15/2012 | 1.12 | 9.33 | 1 CON | 9.33 |
Con
Win | The "Arab Spring" comes to Russia, and Putin Falls. | Russia | 4/4/2012 | 18.00 | 1.06 | 5 CON | 5.29 |
Con
Win | At least one member of the Arab League attacks Syria militarily. | Middle East | 3/31/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Syria unleashes terror attacks, either by itself or through its proxies, against the Arabian countries (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc.) in the Arab League that have called for the boycott. | Middle East | 3/31/2012 | 21.55 | 1.05 | 1 CON | 1.05 |
Con
Win | War between Turkey and Israel. | Middle East | 3/31/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2 CON | 2.00 |
Con
Win | Obama has now said that the SEALs made the decision to kill Bin Laden. Obama throws the SEALs under the bus, and charges are brought against them. | US | 3/31/2012 | 1.28 | 4.57 | 10 CON | 45.71 |
Pro
Win | Civil war in Syria. | Middle East | 3/2/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The revolution in Syria succeeds in overthrowing Assad and the ruling leadership. | Middle East | 3/2/2012 | 6.48 | 1.18 | 5 PRO | 32.40 |
Con
Win | Terrorists detonate either a nuclear device or a "dirty bomb" in Russia. | Russia | 3/2/2012 | 4.22 | 1.31 | 10 CON | 13.11 |
Con
Win | Obama decides not to run for a second term. | US | 3/2/2012 | 111.25 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | War on the Korean Peninsula. | China | 3/2/2012 | 14.65 | 1.07 | 1 CON | 1.07 |
Con
Lose | Massive rioting in North Korea leades to civil disorder. | China | 3/2/2012 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 5 PRO | 72.75 |
Con
Win | Egypt and Israel go to war. Either side may be the aggressor. | Middle East | 3/2/2012 | 23.90 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.44 |
Con
Win | Obama is easily re-elected over republican Newt Gingrich and independent Charles Crist in 3-way race. | US | 2/19/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Incursion into Somalia by a country not neighboring. Number of troop or duration irrelevant, as long as it involves deliberate use of conventional forces. | World | 2/19/2012 | 3.57 | 1.39 | 5 CON | 6.94 |
Pro
Lose | The Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. | Sports | 2/6/2012 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2 CON | 4.00 |
Con
Lose | Eric Holder resigns as a result of the ATF "gun walker" scandal. | US | 2/2/2012 | 8.40 | 1.14 | 5 PRO | 42.00 |
Con
Win | Janet Napolitano resigns for reasons that have nothing to do with gunwalker or any other issue. | US | 2/2/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Khalid Sheik Mohammed does not stand trial or go before a military tribunal during the remainder of Obamas presidency. | US | 1/25/2012 | 1.17 | 6.95 | 10 PRO | 11.68 |
Con
Win | There is an assassination attempt on Sarah Palin. | US | 1/22/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Apocalypse will come. | World | 1/22/2012 | 10.45 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | Shots fired near President Obama. | US | 1/20/2012 | 2.54 | 1.65 | 10 CON | 16.48 |
Con
Lose | Rick Perry becomes the Republican nominee for President. | US | 1/19/2012 | 5.50 | 1.22 | 5 PRO | 27.50 |
Con
Win | EURCHF to go back to 1.50 | Europe | 1/13/2012 | 2.42 | 1.70 | 10 CON | 17.04 |
Con
Win | Herman Cain becomes the Republican nominee for President. | US | 1/9/2012 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Ron Paul wins the Iowa caucus. | US | 1/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Michelle Bachmann becomes the Republican nominee for President. | US | 1/4/2012 | 2.42 | 1.70 | 10 CON | 17.04 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich wins the Iowa caucus. | US | 1/4/2012 | 10.20 | 1.11 | 1 CON | 1.11 |
Con
Win | Rick Perry wins the Iowa caucus. | US | 1/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Mitt Romney wins the Iowa caucus. | US | 1/4/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Hugo Chavez dies. | General | 1/2/2012 | 51.00 | 1.02 | 1 PRO | 51.00 |
Con
Lose | Tim Geithner resigns. | US | 1/1/2012 | 4.67 | 1.27 | 10 PRO | 46.67 |
Con
Win | Samantha Powers leaves her post as special adviser to Obama, voluntarily or non-voluntarily. | US | 1/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The state of California experiences what would be called "sovereign default," but what the rest of us refer to as bankruptcy. | US | 1/1/2012 | 7.50 | 1.15 | 5 CON | 5.77 |
Con
Win | The Kim family gets deposed, and is replaced by a military junta. | China | 1/1/2012 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.57 |
Con
Win | The United States and Iran achieve a diplomatic break-through, and resume relations. | Middle East | 1/1/2012 | 4.52 | 1.28 | 10 CON | 12.84 |
Con
Win | President Obama gets removed from office by Congress invoking the 25th Amendment. | US | 1/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Vatican calls for a new crusade against extreme Muslim groups | Terrorism | 1/1/2012 | 33.55 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies. | World | 1/1/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2 CON | 2.00 |
Con
Win | Open revolt in China. | China | 1/1/2012 | 78.60 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | NPR gets defunded. | General | 1/1/2012 | 26.67 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.39 |
Con
Lose | The fued between Ahmedinejad and Khamenei comes to a head, and Khamenei (or his loyalists) have Ahmedinejad removed in one form or another (ousted from his office, killed, exiled). | Middle East | 1/1/2012 | 4.29 | 1.30 | 10 PRO | 42.94 |
Con
Win | The founder of wikileaks, Julian Assange, gets assassinated. | General | 1/1/2012 | 5.11 | 1.24 | 10 CON | 12.44 |
Con
Win | Israeli Strike Leads to War | Middle East | 12/31/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Obama voluntarily resigns from office before his term expires. | US | 12/31/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | War Between India and Pakistan | World | 12/31/2011 | 7.38 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.57 |
Con
Win | Valerie Jarrett leaves the White House in one way or another (resigns, retires, gets fired). | US | 12/31/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | At some point during the year The House of Representatives approval rating will be higher than Obamas. | US | 12/31/2011 | 17.66 | 1.06 | 5 CON | 5.30 |
Con
Lose | The S&P 500 Stock Index will close below 1,000 before 31 December 2011. | US | 12/30/2011 | 2.23 | 1.81 | 10 PRO | 22.32 |
Con
Lose | The price of gold will hit or exceed $2,000 an ounce. | General | 12/30/2011 | 1.94 | 2.06 | 10 PRO | 19.40 |
Con
Win | Civil War in Greece. | Europe | 12/3/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Military coup detat in Turkey. | Europe | 11/15/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Palestine gets statehood from the UN. | Middle East | 11/1/2011 | 8.95 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.26 |
Con
Win | The Texas Rangers beat the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. | Sports | 10/29/2011 | 1.17 | 6.88 | 1 CON | 6.88 |
Con
Win | The Yankees win the ALCS. | Sports | 10/7/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Sarah Palin will run for president in 2012. | US | 10/5/2011 | 2.02 | 1.98 | 10 PRO | 20.24 |
Con
Win | Armed conflict between Turkey and Syria. | Middle East | 10/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Win | Italy defaults. | Europe | 10/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The Saudi Royal family gets overthrown. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The Assad family gets overthrown in Syria. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 10 PRO | 23.79 |
Con
Win | Afghan campaign will dramatically improve for ISAF once herion trade disrupted significantly | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 10 CON | 18.98 |
Con
Win | The Libyan conflict results in a stalemate. Neither side can win, so Libya splits into two states; Khaddafi controlled in the west, rebel controlled in the east. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | The Libyan rebels (with or without external aid) defeat Khaddafy and his backers. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.15 | 7.75 | 10 PRO | 11.48 |
Pro
Win | Ghaddafi gets overthrown in Libya. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.27 | 4.65 | 10 PRO | 12.74 |
Pro
Win | 10% negative Stock Market adjustment. | US | 8/9/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | The NFL settles its strike, and the 2011 season gets played either in its entirety or with a shortened schedule. | Sports | 7/26/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The NFL settles its labor dispute, and the 2011 season gets played as scheduled. | Sports | 7/1/2011 | 1.78 | 2.28 | 1 PRO | 1.78 |
Con
Lose | Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State. | US | 7/1/2011 | 59.00 | 1.02 | 5 PRO | 295.00 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Nam (the eldest son) gets assasinated. | China | 6/30/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The government of Iran gets overthrown. | Middle East | 6/30/2011 | 1,177.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1,177.00 |
Con
Win | Obama gets impeached.. | US | 6/30/2011 | 9.29 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.21 |
Pro
Win | Anthony Weiner resigns from congress before the next election. | US | 6/16/2011 | 17.67 | 1.06 | 1 PRO | 17.67 |
Con
Win | Turkey leaves, or is kicked out of, NATO. | Middle East | 6/1/2011 | 136.42 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Lose | The current leader of Yemen falls. | Middle East | 6/1/2011 | 1.05 | 22.50 | 10 PRO | 10.47 |
Pro
Win | Manchester United reclaims the Premier League title. | Sports | 5/14/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The next terror attack in the US after Times Square will be initially blamed on either "right wingers" or tea partiers, by a mayor or higher level politician, long before the facts become clear. | Terrorism | 5/11/2011 | 109.40 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.09 |
Con
Lose | The UN Commission formally accuses HizbAllah of the assasination of Rafik Hariri. | Middle East | 3/31/2011 | 27.52 | 1.04 | 10 PRO | 275.20 |
Con
Win | Chavez, in an attempt to shore up his Bolivarian revolutionary credentials, invades Curacao. | General | 3/31/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Gas prices hit $5.00 a gallon by Labor Day. | US | 3/5/2011 | 4.29 | 1.30 | 5 PRO | 21.43 |
Con
Win | War in the middle east between Israel and Hizballah, Syria, Lebanon, Iran. Israel may fight one of the listed countries, or some combination of them, including all of them. | Middle East | 3/1/2011 | 118.00 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Russia will invade former soviet countries | Russia | 2/8/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The Pittsburgh Steelers win the Super Bowl. | US | 2/7/2011 | 30.00 | 1.03 | 1 PRO | 30.00 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton resigns to challenge Obama for the Democratic nomination. | US | 1/31/2011 | 24.77 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.21 |
Con
Win | In Afghanistan, Karzai Attempts to Negotiate a Separate Peace Without the US. | Middle East | 1/31/2011 | 5.18 | 1.24 | 10 CON | 12.39 |
Con
Win | Large battle between two blue water navies. | World | 1/30/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Nancy Pelosi resigns from the House. | US | 1/25/2011 | 111.00 | 1.01 | 1 PRO | 111.00 |
Con
Win | The NY Jets win the Super Bowl. | Sports | 1/24/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | War breaks out in Middle East and Israels first attack strategy is Syria. | Middle East | 1/2/2011 | 7.29 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.59 |
Con
Win | Civil disorder in North Korea. | China | 1/2/2011 | 269.67 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Iran announces they have the bomb. | Middle East | 1/2/2011 | 266.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.02 |
Con
Win | War in Korea. | China | 1/2/2011 | 90.10 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.06 |
Con
Win | Israel launches an air strike against Iran. | Middle East | 1/2/2011 | 34.88 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.30 |
Con
Win | Iraq will become a weak Federal Republic with a strong Kurdish area, a Shi'a area under Iranian domination and a Sunni area that is in chaos. | Middle East | 1/1/2011 | 2.24 | 1.81 | 10 CON | 18.09 |
Con
Win | Gas hits $6.00 per gallon. | US | 1/1/2011 | 83.20 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Obamas policies towards Israel cause the current government to collapse, and a government more to Obamas liking to take its place. | Middle East | 1/1/2011 | 10.66 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.04 |
Con
Win | Queen Elizabeth turns over most of her official duties to her eldest grandson, HRH Prince William. | Europe | 1/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Obama administration indicts senior elected official for authorizing torture. | US | 1/1/2011 | 23.29 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.45 |
Con
Win | Obama makes diplomatic accomodation with Taliban allowing the US to disengage in Afghanistan without immediate loss of face. | US | 1/1/2011 | 26.97 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.39 |
Con
Win | usa will intercept a stray nuclear missle and bush will become a national hero despite his declining support as president.because of him we will soon be able to defend ourselves from a nuclear strike. | Terrorism | 1/1/2011 | 22.59 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.46 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheive a diplomatic brake through before end 2010 | Middle East | 1/1/2011 | 7.60 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.52 |
Con
Win | Civil disorder in Russia. | Russia | 1/1/2011 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | War between the North and the South on the Korean peninsula. Chinese intervene to restore peace and unite the Koreas under their security umbrella. | China | 1/1/2011 | 1,474.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The head of Pakistan, Musharref will be assassinated by Islamic Fundamentalists. | China | 12/31/2010 | 4.04 | 1.33 | 10 PRO | 40.36 |
Con
Win | Obama Will Seek To Organize The National Community Down To the Grass Roots Level | US | 12/31/2010 | 2.41 | 1.71 | 10 CON | 17.08 |
Con
Win | USAF and NASA jointly develop the first ever Fighter jet working on non-gasoline fuels. | US | 12/31/2010 | 3.12 | 1.47 | 10 CON | 14.72 |
Con
Win | US to experience Weimar-style hyperinflation before end of 2012 | US | 12/31/2010 | 137.00 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Pro
Lose | The FCC classifies broadband networks as common carriers under Title 2 of the Communications Act, giving the government control over pricing and access. | US | 12/31/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | President Hillary Clinton will order U.S. military forces NOT to intervene when Communist China attacks Taiwan in 2010. | China | 12/31/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2 CON | 2.00 |
Con
Win | Unemployment in the US will officially hit 20% or greater at least once in 2010. | US | 12/31/2010 | 5.50 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.22 |
Con
Win | Flight of major advertisers takes Rush Limbaugh off the air in all but a few markets. | US | 12/31/2010 | 12.20 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.89 |
Con
Win | Falkland Islands revisited | World | 12/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | President Obamas strategic arms reduction treaty will not be ratified by the Senate | US | 12/22/2010 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 10 PRO | 15.62 |
Pro
Lose | US casuaties in Afghanistan in 2010 will increase more than 50% from 2009 casualties | US | 12/13/2010 | 12.00 | 1.09 | 5 CON | 5.45 |
Pro
Win | A Federal judge in Virginia is about to rule on the constitutionality of Obamacare. He will rule that the Obama Health Care Legislation is unconstitutional. | US | 12/13/2010 | 2.86 | 1.54 | 10 PRO | 28.64 |
Con
Win | Iran military will be disabled by World super powers | Middle East | 12/1/2010 | 18.10 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.58 |
Con
Lose | A Republican becomes the next Governor of Illinois. | US | 11/17/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Final composition of the US Senate after the mid-terms is 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. | US | 11/5/2010 | 16.00 | 1.07 | 1 PRO | 16.00 |
Pro
Win | Republican gain a majority of Governorships after the mid-term elections, with a minimum of 28 statehouses held by the Republicans. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 PRO | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Nancy Pelosi loses her 2010 re-election bid. | US | 11/3/2010 | 2.07 | 1.94 | 10 CON | 19.35 |
Con
Lose | Barbara Boxer is defeated in her re-election bid. | US | 11/3/2010 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 10 PRO | 50.00 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least 4 seats in the Senate in the 2010 mid-term elections. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.27 | 4.70 | 10 PRO | 12.70 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least 30 seats in the House in the 2010 mid-term elections | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.82 | 2.23 | 10 PRO | 18.16 |
Con
Win | Nancy Pelosi will be the Speaker of the House for the 112th Congress. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 10 CON | 116.11 |
Con
Lose | Deval Patrick is NOT re-elected as the Governor of Massachusetts. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.04 | 25.20 | 1 PRO | 1.04 |
Pro
Win | Roland Burris will not run for re-election. A republican wins his seat in 2010. | US | 11/3/2010 | 66.00 | 1.02 | 1 PRO | 66.00 |
Con
Win | Democrats retain majorities in both houses of Congress. | US | 11/3/2010 | 10.22 | 1.11 | 5 CON | 5.54 |
Con
Lose | Republicans hold at least 50 seats in the Senate after the 2010 mid-terms. | US | 11/3/2010 | 18.62 | 1.06 | 10 PRO | 186.19 |
Pro
Win | Nikki Haley gets elected as the Governor of South Carolina. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2 PRO | 2.00 |
Con
Lose | Meg Whitman wins the 2010 California Gubernatorial election. | US | 11/3/2010 | 2.90 | 1.53 | 10 PRO | 29.05 |
Con
Win | The Republican candidate wins the 2010 NY Gubernatorial Election. | US | 11/3/2010 | 49.10 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Pro
Win | The Republicans take back the House of Representatives in the 2010 mid-terms. | US | 11/3/2010 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 10 PRO | 20.70 |
Con
Lose | Harry Reid loses his re-election bid in 2010. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.65 | 2.55 | 10 PRO | 16.45 |
Con
Win | Yields on 10 year Treasuries will be over 5.0% | US | 11/1/2010 | 29.50 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.35 |
Con
Win | The 2010 mid-term US Elections are cancelled. | US | 11/1/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Russian Incursion into Eastern Europe | Russia | 10/30/2010 | 64.60 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.16 |
Con
Win | The New York Yankees win the World Series. | Sports | 10/23/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Rahm Emmanuel leaves his position as White House Chief of Staff to run for Mayor of Chicago. | US | 10/1/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Chavez gets thrown out of office in Venezuela. | World | 9/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Sino-Japanese Asian Defense Sphere Incident | China | 9/24/2010 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 25 PRO | 59.65 |
Con
Win | One or more civilians will be shot dead by uniformed officers (police/military) of an EU state other than the UK while participating in protests or demonstrations within the UK.
| Europe | 9/22/2010 | 26.80 | 1.04 | 1 CON | 1.04 |
Con
Lose | War in the middle east between Israel and at least one (or more) of the usual suspects (Iran, Syria, Hizballah, etc.). Either side may be the instigator. | Middle East | 9/2/2010 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 10 PRO | 110.00 |
Pro
Win | McCain defeats Hayworth in the Republican primary. | US | 8/25/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Roland Burris will not run for re-election. Another Democrate wins his seat in 2010. | US | 8/4/2010 | 1.31 | 4.19 | 10 CON | 41.90 |
Con
Lose | Andrew Cuomo is the Democratic nominee for the NY Gubernatorial election. | US | 8/1/2010 | 6.00 | 1.20 | 1 PRO | 6.00 |
Con
Win | North Korean nuke test. | China | 8/1/2010 | 48.00 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | Israeli-Iranian Airspace Incident | Middle East | 7/31/2010 | 26.07 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.40 |
Pro
Lose | Health care reform passed by November 2, 2010 | US | 7/6/2010 | 1.02 | 67.50 | 1 CON | 67.50 |
Pro
Win | After thorough investigation, links between the Times Square bomber and the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), are confirmed. | Terrorism | 7/6/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Israel allows, or fails to physically stop, at least one ISM or related groups ship from running the Gaza blockade before the end of this month, deliberately or not. | Middle East | 7/1/2010 | 44.33 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | Civil disorder in North Korea. | China | 6/30/2010 | 10.69 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.03 |
Con
Win | Nancy Pelosi is removed as Speaker of the House. | US | 6/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Rahm Emmanuel resigns as White House Chief of Staff to run for Mayor of Chicago. | US | 6/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-Un (the youngest son) gets formally introduced as the successor to Kim Jong-Il. | China | 6/30/2010 | 9.07 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.24 |
Con
Win | The Dow Jones Industrials will still be above 10,000 by June 30, 2010. | US | 6/30/2010 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 10 CON | 19.54 |
Con
Win | The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes below 8000 by June 30,2010. | US | 6/30/2010 | 158.40 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Gold price exceeds $1500 per troy ounce by June 30, 2010.
| General | 6/30/2010 | 42.60 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | North Korea implodes, and there is civil disorder. The Kim family is deposed, and the North is administered by the either the UN, the PRC, or an Asian coalition. | China | 6/30/2010 | 1,937.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Carole Browner gets fired as a result of Climategate. | US | 6/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Eric Holder resigns as AG. | US | 6/30/2010 | 11.91 | 1.09 | 1 PRO | 11.91 |
Con
Win | Rahm Emmanuel resigns as WH Chief of Staff to run for Burris seat in the US Senate. | US | 6/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | War between Venezuela and Colombia. | World | 6/30/2010 | 42.50 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Con
Win | Keith Olbermann loses his job at MSNBC. | General | 6/30/2010 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.18 |
Con
Lose | The trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is moved out of NY. | Terrorism | 6/30/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Rahm Emmanuel resigns or gets fired as White House Chief of Staff. | US | 6/30/2010 | 18.14 | 1.06 | 1 PRO | 18.14 |
Con
Lose | Kim Jong Il dies. | China | 6/30/2010 | 10.24 | 1.11 | 10 PRO | 102.44 |
Con
Win | Russia attacks (with military forces) the Ukraine. | Russia | 6/30/2010 | 566.50 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | UN intervention necessary in Thailand | World | 6/15/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Senator Blanche Lincoln loses her run-off to Lt. Gov. Bill Halter for the Democratic nomination to run for the Senate from Arkansas. | US | 6/9/2010 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 1 CON | 3.00 |
Pro
Win | Carly Fiorina is the Republican candidate for the US Senate. | US | 6/9/2010 | 1.01 | 137.00 | 1 PRO | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Ground intervention in Somalia | Terrorism | 6/6/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | One or more UK government ministers will invoke the Civil Contingencies Act on or before Thursday 3 June 2010
| Europe | 6/3/2010 | 11.71 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.93 |
Con
Win | The Taliban seize control of Pakistan in a coup detat (with inside help). | Middle East | 6/1/2010 | 269.20 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | United States Airport screening adopts profiling tactics to increase passenger safety. | Terrorism | 6/1/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Foreign Assistance in USA Gulf Oil Spill | US | 5/31/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Charles Djou wins the special election for the House or Representatives seat in Hawaii. | US | 5/23/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | A Republican wins the special election for Murthas seat in Pennsylvania. | US | 5/19/2010 | 1.67 | 2.50 | 10 PRO | 16.67 |
Pro
Win | Gordon Brown and Labor get voted out of power, and lose the election to the Tories. | Europe | 5/11/2010 | 2.92 | 1.52 | 5 PRO | 14.62 |
Con
Win | ManUtd win the Prem 2009-2010 | Sports | 5/10/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Times Square Bomber, American quickly captured. | Terrorism | 5/4/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Obama proposes a surtax on natural gas, both in order to taise revenue and to help the green energy industry. | US | 5/2/2010 | 308.50 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.02 |
Con
Win | Syria and Israel go to war with each other. | Middle East | 5/2/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | North Korea will invade South Korea in order to focus the peoples attention on something other than their current problems such as hunger and as a last ditch effort for KIM to hold on to power | China | 5/1/2010 | 10.82 | 1.10 | 10 PRO | 108.23 |
Con
Win | Former Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska files suit against the Public Integrety Division of the Department Justice. | US | 4/1/2010 | 5,000.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | David Patterson resigns as Governor of NY. | US | 3/31/2010 | 1,301.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1,301.00 |
Con
Win | Harold Ford runs for, and wins, one of the NY Senate seats. | US | 3/3/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | A Mumbai style attack targeting US citizens occurs or is attempted. | Terrorism | 3/1/2010 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 10 CON | 15.09 |
Con
Win | War Between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon. | Middle East | 3/1/2010 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.69 |
Con
Lose | Janet Napolitano resigns or gets fired as a result of the recent terrorism incidents. | US | 3/1/2010 | 911.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 911.00 |
Con
Win | Within the next 6 months, Israel will make a major incursion into the Gaza strip, involving missile attacks and ground troops, that lasts over 72 hours. | Middle East | 2/11/2010 | 8.47 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.34 |
Pro
Win | Who Dat? Who Dat? Who Dat Dere Gonna Beat Dem Saints!?. The New Orleans Saints win the Super Bowl. | Sports | 2/7/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Iran will have a nuclear weapon that it can launch against Israel by the end of 2010
| Middle East | 2/2/2010 | 18.25 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.58 |
Con
Win | Palestinian Power Shift. Hezballah is left as the dominant faction due to infighting between Hamas and Fatah, and lack of trust by the Palestinians between the two factions. | Middle East | 1/31/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | The Saints beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship game next Sunday. | Sports | 1/25/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The next US President will launch an investigation of the 43rd presidents handling of the war in Iraq within 1 year of being sworn in. | US | 1/21/2010 | 8.46 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.34 |
Con
Win | Caroline Kennedy will run for Hillarys Senate seat the attainment of which being a necessary preliminary to raising money for a presidential campaign. | US | 1/21/2010 | 17.45 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.61 |
Con
Win | After one year, President Obama''s appointments will have fewer women and minorities than did President Bush''s at one year of his first term. | US | 1/21/2010 | 1.52 | 2.92 | 10 CON | 29.17 |
Pro
Win | Scott Brown defeats Martha Coakley in the Massachussetts special election to fill Ted Kennedys seat. | US | 1/20/2010 | 1.55 | 2.81 | 10 PRO | 15.52 |
Con
Lose | Senator Dodd loses his 2010 re-election bid, and a Republican takes his seat. | US | 1/6/2010 | 43.50 | 1.02 | 1 PRO | 43.50 |
Con
Win | Arlen Specter will be re-elected to the Senate in 2010. | US | 1/6/2010 | 6.03 | 1.20 | 10 CON | 11.99 |
Con
Lose | Us Treasury Secretary Geithner resigns. | US | 1/2/2010 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 10 PRO | 48.67 |
Con
Lose | The NY Times files for bankruptcy under either chapter 11 or chapter 7. | US | 1/2/2010 | 2.24 | 1.81 | 10 PRO | 22.40 |
Con
Win | The Syrian government is unable to maintain control over the various factions. There is a revolt, and the ruling Assad family gets overthrown. | Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 26.40 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.39 |
Con
Win | China is unable to maintain its rate of economic growth, and slides into recession. This causes massive riots, and a state of civil disorder that results in another "Tianamen Square" massacre. | China | 1/2/2010 | 5.13 | 1.24 | 10 CON | 12.42 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2009.
| Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 3.68 | 1.37 | 10 CON | 13.74 |
Con
Win | Pakistan descends into civil disorder. Their army is deployed to crush the uprising. | World | 1/2/2010 | 12.60 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.86 |
Con
Lose | The Iranian government is unable to maintin control, and the people revoly and overthrow the mullahs. | Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 11.09 | 1.10 | 10 PRO | 110.91 |
Con
Lose | As a result of the financial crisis, Russia loses it internally, and descends into civil disorder. | Russia | 1/2/2010 | 7.16 | 1.16 | 10 PRO | 71.57 |
Con
Win | After the State dinner fiasco, Desiree Rogers goes under the bus. | US | 1/2/2010 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State. | US | 1/2/2010 | 63.10 | 1.02 | 5 PRO | 315.50 |
Con
Win | Nancy Pelosi is no longer Speaker of the House. | US | 1/2/2010 | 4.57 | 1.28 | 10 CON | 12.80 |
Con
Lose | Gordon Brown is no longer Prime Minister. A Tory becomes the new English PM. | Europe | 1/2/2010 | 2.78 | 1.56 | 10 PRO | 27.78 |
Con
Lose | The Dow closes below 6,000. | US | 1/1/2010 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 10 PRO | 32.05 |
Con
Win | The Dow closes above 11,000. | US | 1/1/2010 | 6.43 | 1.18 | 10 CON | 11.84 |
Con
Win | Obama administration indicts former DoJ attornies for providing legal memos justifying torture. | US | 1/1/2010 | 15.50 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.69 |
Con
Win | Obama administration indicts CIA and/or military interrogators for acts of torture. | US | 1/1/2010 | 15.50 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.69 |
Con
Lose | By the end of 2009, the Large Hadron Collider will have failed to detect neutralinos, gravitons, or the Higgs Boson | Sci/Tech | 1/1/2010 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 10 PRO | 12.94 |
Con
Win | The US will threaten to take Cuba to the UN security council, and start a propaganda campaign calling for war against Cuba, before 2010. | US | 1/1/2010 | 25.25 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.41 |
Con
Win | Initiated in South America: An alliance modeled on the EU, opposed to capitalist free market policies and adversarial to the US. | General | 1/1/2010 | 9.71 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.87 |
Con
Lose | A nuclear weapon (A-bomb or H-bomb) will be used in anger somwhere in the world before midnight Dec. 31 2009. Dirty bombs don't count. | World | 1/1/2010 | 8.75 | 1.13 | 10 PRO | 87.52 |
Con
Win | President Barak Obama will launch a peacekeeping operation into Somalia | World | 1/1/2010 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.68 |
Con
Win | Before the end of the year, one or more UK government ministers will invoke the Civil Contingencies Act. (Ends Dec 31 2009)
| Europe | 1/1/2010 | 8.82 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.28 |
Con
Win | Afghan government collapses. | World | 1/1/2010 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.47 |
Con
Win | In the US, the draft will be re-instated before the end of 2009 | US | 1/1/2010 | 46.83 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.22 |
Con
Win | Obama administration DoJ indicts Bush administration Cabinet-level official for involvement in torture of GWOT detainees. | China | 1/1/2010 | 100.00 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | The Indianapolis Colts go undefeated in the regular season. | Sports | 12/27/2009 | 1.30 | 4.33 | 10 CON | 43.33 |
Pro
Win | There will be an al qaeda-style terrorist attack within the first 18 months of the new presidents term. | Terrorism | 12/26/2009 | 1.47 | 3.15 | 10 PRO | 14.66 |
Pro
Lose | Price of Gold goes above $1200/ troy ounce | General | 12/1/2009 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 10 CON | 17.41 |
Con
Lose | Kim Jong Il dies. | China | 12/1/2009 | 59.28 | 1.02 | 10 PRO | 592.75 |
Con
Lose | More US soldiers for Afghanistan | US | 11/29/2009 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 5 PRO | 11.49 |
Con
Win | Obama administration is successful in closing GTMO detention facility and transfereing all detainees off island within one year per exeutive order signed 16 NOV 08. | Terrorism | 11/17/2009 | 164.00 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.06 |
Con
Lose | Kim Jung Il Succession | World | 11/11/2009 | 12.05 | 1.09 | 10 PRO | 120.50 |
Pro
Win | Spot price of gold will exceed $1100.00 per ounce. | General | 11/6/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 PRO | 10.00 |
Pro
Win | The Yankees win the World Series. | Sports | 11/5/2009 | 1.12 | 9.38 | 10 PRO | 11.19 |
Pro
Win | The Republican Candidate defeats the Democratic candidate in the Virginia Gubernatorial election. | US | 11/4/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Governor Corzine loses his re-election as NJs governor, and a Republican wins. | US | 11/4/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Hoffman defeats Scozzafava in the NY 23 race. | US | 11/4/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Pro
Lose | The Republican candidate (Harmer) defeats the Democratic candidate (the Lieutenant Governor) for Ellen Tauschers seat in the California District 10 special election. | US | 11/4/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Leon Panetta resigns as the head of the CIA. | US | 11/1/2009 | 12.13 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.90 |
Con
Win | Sino-US Flare-up | China | 10/30/2009 | 17.13 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.62 |
Pro
Lose | The Yankees win the AL Pennant. | Sports | 10/26/2009 | 1.02 | 52.00 | 1 CON | 52.00 |
Con
Win | The LA Dodgers win the NL Pennant, and represent the NL in the World Series. | Sports | 10/22/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Un is designated the heir apparent, and Kim Jong Il moves out of the seat of power. The transfer of power proceeds smoothly, and without any internal strife or external pressure. | China | 10/21/2009 | 11.08 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 10.99 |
Con
Win | Before the end of summer, at least one civilian will be killed by uniformed officers not displaying police or military insignia while participating in protests or demonstrations within the UK.
| Europe | 9/22/2009 | 597.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Before the end of the summer, one or more civilians will be shot dead by soldiers of the British Army while participating in protests or demonstrations within the United Kingdom.
| Europe | 9/22/2009 | 10.26 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.08 |
Con
Win | Israeli-Iranian Conflict | Middle East | 9/12/2009 | 10.85 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.02 |
Con
Win | $4.00/gal or above gas prices in US by labor day, 2009. | US | 9/3/2009 | 176.60 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.06 |
Con
Lose | Korea loses it internally, and a civil war breaks out to determine who controls the country. | China | 9/1/2009 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 10 PRO | 45.05 |
Con
Win | An unclaimed firebombing of an ACORN office within the next three months will be vehemently blamed on "right wing extremsism" withoutsuppritng evidence...to incite violence against the right. | US | 9/1/2009 | 6.06 | 1.20 | 10 CON | 11.98 |
Pro
Win | The swine flu pandemic kills more than 2,500 people. | World | 8/28/2009 | 2.48 | 1.68 | 10 PRO | 24.80 |
Con
Win | Before the end of the summer, one or more civilians will be shot dead by police officers while participating in protests or demonstrations within the United Kingdom.
| China | 8/23/2009 | 14.40 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.75 |
Con
Win | The US suffers a major terrorist event. The new Pres Civilian D Force gains sweeping powers. State of Emergency declared. Fed rules by issuing executive orders, creating a state sponsored autocracy. | US | 8/3/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Sri Lanka will break into another civil war between the Sinhalese and the Tamilians. | General | 7/30/2009 | 20.91 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.50 |
Con
Win | Obama visits Gaza. | US | 7/20/2009 | 439.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | A major provocation by North Korea against South Korea. This may be an attack at sea at the northern limit line, an attack at the dmz, or another type of attack that stops short of an all out war. | China | 7/7/2009 | 13.07 | 1.08 | 10 PRO | 130.73 |
Con
Win | The OAS expels Honduras as a result of the "coup." | World | 7/4/2009 | 1.37 | 3.73 | 10 CON | 37.27 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il will be replaced by a Pro- Chinese "North Korean" Government | China | 7/1/2009 | 28.16 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.37 |
Con
Win | Roland Burris resigns his recently appointed Senate seat. | US | 6/30/2009 | 2.15 | 1.87 | 10 CON | 18.72 |
Con
Lose | Fidel Castro dies. | General | 6/30/2009 | 5.21 | 1.24 | 10 PRO | 52.15 |
Con
Win | A free floating anti-ship navel mine is encountered in waters off Somalia. The mine may be improvised. | Terrorism | 6/30/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Coup detat in Thailand | World | 6/30/2009 | 10.16 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.09 |
Con
Win | The UN commission announces that Hezballah was responsible for killing Hariri, not Syria. This sparks another civil war in Lebanon. | Middle East | 6/24/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | After six months, President Obama still will not have filled his Cabinet (Dept Secretaries, NSA, WH CoS). | US | 6/21/2009 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 10 CON | 18.78 |
Con
Lose | Ahmedinejad fails to win the upcoming election in Iran. Mousavi (the principal opponent) gets enough votes to win, or at least force a run-off. | Middle East | 6/15/2009 | 115.00 | 1.01 | 1 PRO | 115.00 |
Con
Win | Prior to Iranian election, low-budget Straight of Hormuz incident created by Iranian RG elements to prop oil prices, help Ahmadinejads poll #s. | Middle East | 6/9/2009 | 6.40 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.85 |
Con
Win | Pakistan Collapses. | Middle East | 5/31/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Obama nominates Granholm to fill Souters vacant seat. | US | 5/26/2009 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 1 PRO | 11.00 |
Con
Win | Obama appoints Deval Patrick to the Supreme Court replacing Souter. | US | 5/26/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Obama nominates Hillary Clinton to fill the Souter vacancy. | US | 5/26/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Pro
Win | Man Utd win 2008-09 Prem | Sports | 5/16/2009 | 1.02 | 48.10 | 10 PRO | 10.21 |
Con
Win | President Obama normalizes relations with Cuba. | US | 5/2/2009 | 4.27 | 1.31 | 10 CON | 13.06 |
Con
Win | A nuclear attack will be carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran against the State of Israel. | Terrorism | 4/1/2009 | 31.36 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.16 |
Con
Win | US will attack area under the soverign control of Pakistan, in an attempt to flush out Al-Qeadas bases and to hopefully find Osama Bin Laden by the end of January 2009. | US | 3/31/2009 | 49.50 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.21 |
Pro
Win | Israel election Feb. 10.
Likud wins and forms goverment. | Middle East | 3/27/2009 | 1.08 | 13.22 | 10 PRO | 10.82 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be an invasion of Taiwan by China. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The next presidents first crisis will be a resumption of the war on Israels northern border. The assailants can be either Hezbollah, Syria, or both. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.46 | 3.18 | 10 PRO | 14.59 |
Pro
Lose | The next presidents first crisis will be the flight of investment capital in reaction to an anticipated explosion in taxes and regulation. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.44 | 3.29 | 10 CON | 32.90 |
Pro
Win | Iran will not use nukes on Israel. | Middle East | 3/20/2009 | 1.23 | 5.36 | 10 PRO | 12.29 |
Con
Win | One of the Big three automakers will cease to exist. | US | 3/1/2009 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.64 |
Pro
Win | Benjamin Netanyahu elected next Israeli Prime Minister | Middle East | 2/23/2009 | 1.35 | 3.84 | 10 PRO | 13.53 |
Con
Lose | Chavez loses his proposed referendum. | World | 2/16/2009 | 1.62 | 2.63 | 10 PRO | 16.15 |
Pro
Win | AFC team wins the Super Bowl. | Sports | 2/1/2009 | 5.55 | 1.22 | 10 PRO | 55.55 |
Con
Win | US will attack territories under Pakistans administration before end of Jan 2009 | Terrorism | 2/1/2009 | 4.20 | 1.31 | 10 CON | 13.13 |
Con
Lose | It will be announced that Kim Jong Il has died. | China | 2/1/2009 | 16.14 | 1.07 | 10 PRO | 161.44 |
Con
Win | Caroline Kennedy will be selected to fill the balance of Hillary Clintons term in the US Senate. | US | 1/23/2009 | 14.47 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.74 |
Con
Lose | Caroline Kennedy will be appointed to replace Hillary Clinton as senator for New York | US | 1/23/2009 | 1.40 | 3.53 | 10 PRO | 13.95 |
Con
Win | George W. Bush succeeded by his vice-president. | US | 1/20/2009 | 5.46 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.24 |
Con
Win | USA or Israel will bomb Iran's Nukes | Iraq | 1/1/2009 | 1.85 | 2.17 | 10 CON | 21.72 |
Con
Lose | In about 2 years Chavez will begin border skirmishes with one of Venezuela's neighbours (Guyana, Colombia or Brazil) as a way of exercising his "bolivarian forces". | World | 1/1/2009 | 2.29 | 1.77 | 10 PRO | 22.92 |
Con
Win | Cuba's offshore oil fields will prove to be a lot larger than previously thought. Putting it in the worlds top ten reserves. | World | 1/1/2009 | 4.42 | 1.29 | 10 CON | 12.93 |
Con
Win | Arab nations will initiate mutual discussion on the subject of the eventual formation of an Arab federal union(perhaps AU). | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 5.80 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.09 |
Con
Win | Dow Jones average will close below 6000` | US | 1/1/2009 | 3.78 | 1.36 | 10 CON | 13.59 |
Con
Win | Iran will launch a nuclear attack against Israel | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.42 |
Con
Win | The Iranian government dominates Iraq since it will be a nuclear power and Iranian agents or sympathizers are elected to public office and institute pro -Iranian policies. | China | 1/1/2009 | 7.25 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.60 |
Con
Win | Tom Delay is convicted of consipracy to violate Texas state campaign finance laws | US | 1/1/2009 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 25 CON | 30.33 |
Con
Win | Osama bin Laden will be killed by the end of 2008 | Terrorism | 1/1/2009 | 157.20 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro overthrown in coup d''etat U.S. blamed | World | 1/1/2009 | 9.60 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.16 |
Con
Win | The Chinese Navy will lose a warship or submarine due to a major accident by 12/31/2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 10.57 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.05 |
Pro
Win | Rafale fighter will have secured no foreign purchase contract(s) prior 01-Jan-2008 | Europe | 1/1/2009 | 1.20 | 5.92 | 10 PRO | 12.03 |
Con
Win | The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close the 2008 year above 11,000 | US | 1/1/2009 | 862.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | Venezuelan and/or Ecuadorian troops will engage in direct combat with Colombian forces. | World | 1/1/2009 | 6.14 | 1.19 | 10 PRO | 61.36 |
Con
Win | China will have a fixed-wing aircraft carrier operational by the end of 2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 206.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2008. | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 8.37 | 1.14 | 10 CON | 11.36 |
Con
Lose | Dick Cheney does not finish 2nd term. | US | 1/1/2009 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 25 PRO | 121.71 |
Con
Win | Civil unrest will cause the pullout of US forces from Qatar by 2008 | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 10 CON | 12.50 |
Con
Win | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 10 CON | 13.46 |
Con
Win | Bush suspends Presidential elections / Martial law declared. | US | 12/19/2008 | 142.86 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Radical Islamists bent on exporting revolution attempt overthrow of government of major Arab country or countries. | Middle East | 12/15/2008 | 3.03 | 1.49 | 10 CON | 14.93 |
Con
Win | The United States and Iraq fail to reach a security agreement that authorizes the US to maintain its troops in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/28/2008 | 4.01 | 1.33 | 10 CON | 13.32 |
Con
Win | Srnator Clinton will cry in public, on-camera, at least once, before the 2008 elections are over. Crying prior to super-Tuesday 2008 does not count. | US | 11/8/2008 | 2.48 | 1.67 | 10 CON | 16.74 |
Con
Win | Republicans lose at least 25 seats in the House of Representatives. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.56 | 2.79 | 10 CON | 27.86 |
Con
Lose | In a re-match of the 2004 governors race in Washington State, this time Rossi defeats Gregoire. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | The Perfect Storm 2008 - Obama elected President; Democrats increase to 60 Senate seats (filibuster proof) and Democrats increase their control in House of Representives. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.85 | 2.18 | 10 PRO | 18.49 |
Con
Win | Al Franken defeats Norm Coleman for the MN Senate seat in 2008.. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.26 | 4.90 | 10 CON | 49.02 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will vote to re-instate a military draft before the 2008 elections | US | 11/5/2008 | 35.46 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.29 |
Con
Lose | Republican candidate wins the white House/Presidency in 2008 election. | US | 11/5/2008 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 10 PRO | 26.27 |
Con
Lose | Rep. John Murtha loses his seat to challenger Bill Russell. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.00 | 430.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | McCain will be elected president of the United States | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.79 | 2.27 | 10 PRO | 17.90 |
Pro
Lose | Obama is elected President of the United States | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.66 | 2.50 | 10 CON | 25.04 |
Con
Win | Barrack Obama is found to have more than $10 million in illegal campaign donations and does not win the election (either resigns or loses) due to the worst political scandal since Watergate. | US | 11/4/2008 | 31.33 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Pro
Win | The person elected President of the US in 2008 will be or will have been a US Senator. | US | 11/3/2008 | 1.07 | 15.24 | 10 PRO | 10.70 |
Con
Win | The person elected President of the US in 2008 will be or will have been governor of a state. | US | 11/3/2008 | 10.02 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.11 |
Con
Win | The person elected President of the US in 2008 will be a resident of a state of the former Confederacy. | US | 11/3/2008 | 2.91 | 1.52 | 25 CON | 38.09 |
Con
Win | October Surprise: A US surveillance flight is shot down over Iran and the pilot taken captive during the month of October. | Middle East | 11/2/2008 | 5.81 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.08 |
Con
Win | The Constitution of the United States is amended to permit naturalized citizens to be President. | US | 11/1/2008 | 7.66 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.50 |
Con
Win | Iran will attack Iraq, during the same time as America is drawing down troops from Iraq. | Middle East | 10/31/2008 | 64.69 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.16 |
Con
Win | The city of Atlanta, Georgia will run out of drinking water in 2008 | US | 10/31/2008 | 103.50 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Lose | Tampa Bay beats Philadelphia in the World Series | Sports | 10/29/2008 | 16.00 | 1.07 | 1 PRO | 16.00 |
Con
Win | Rudolf Guilianni will be elected president of the United States, | US | 10/15/2008 | 5.75 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.11 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clilnton will be elected president of the united States. | US | 10/15/2008 | 4.48 | 1.29 | 10 CON | 12.87 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will stay in the race no matter who the democratic nominee is (e.g. she will run as an Independent if Obama wins the nomination). | US | 10/15/2008 | 51.75 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.20 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro captured in Cuba and brought to the U.S. on outstanding drug smuggling warrants | World | 10/15/2008 | 13.00 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.83 |
Pro
Lose | The S & P 500 will be below 1000 | US | 10/7/2008 | 44.18 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.23 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin drops out as McCains runnning mate. | US | 10/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Lose | This is the year! After last winning the World Series in 1908, the Chicago Cubs win the world Series in 2008 | Sports | 10/5/2008 | 111.00 | 1.01 | 1 PRO | 111.00 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin resigns as McCains VP candidate. | US | 10/5/2008 | 5.62 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.17 |
Pro
Win | Will history repeat itself? Last year, the NY Mets had a 7 game lead with 17 left to play. This year, they lead by 3 1/2 games with 17 left to play. Will the Mets choke again? | Sports | 9/27/2008 | 121.00 | 1.01 | 1 PRO | 121.00 |
Con
Win | The Chicago Cubs winn 100 or more games during the regular season. | Sports | 9/27/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Mike Huckabee will be elected President of the United States | US | 9/27/2008 | 20.74 | 1.05 | 1 CON | 1.05 |
Con
Win | Joe Biden withdraws as Obamas running mate | US | 9/27/2008 | 39.60 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.26 |
Pro
Win | New England Patriots will NOT go undefeated in the regular season in 2008. | Sports | 9/21/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | New center/right reform populist party fields a presidential ticket for the '08 election. | US | 9/14/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.22 |
Con
Win | Rudolf Giuliani will be nominated as the Repeblican candidate for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 3.07 | 1.48 | 25 CON | 37.10 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 77.83 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.13 |
Con
Win | Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee will be the Republican presidental nominee for the 2008 presidential election. | US | 9/9/2008 | 50.19 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.20 |
Con
Win | Mitt Romney will be nominated as the Repeblican candidate for President
| US | 9/9/2008 | 7.58 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.52 |
Con
Win | Senator McCain picks Governor Sanford as his VP running mate. | US | 9/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Senator Charles Timothy "Chuck" Hagel will be the 2008 Republican presidential candidate | US | 9/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Bobby Jindal will be the Republican VP nominee. | US | 9/5/2008 | 2.36 | 1.73 | 10 CON | 17.33 |
Con
Win | Will Senator McCain choose Senator Joe Lieberman as his running mate? | US | 9/5/2008 | 2.89 | 1.53 | 10 CON | 15.30 |
Con
Win | McCain picks Lindsey Graham as his VP. | US | 9/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Senator McCain picks Governor Pawlenty as his VP running mate. | US | 9/5/2008 | 4.93 | 1.25 | 5 CON | 6.27 |
Con
Win | Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be the 2008 Republican presidential nominee. | US | 9/1/2008 | 7.81 | 1.15 | 25 CON | 28.67 |
Con
Win | Senator George Allen will be the 2008 Republican presidential candidate. | US | 9/1/2008 | 42.93 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Pro
Win | The Republicans will delay their convention because of Hurricane Gustav. | US | 9/1/2008 | 1.37 | 3.72 | 1 PRO | 1.37 |
Con
Win | Former governer of the Commonwealth of Virginia, Mark Warner clinches the Democratic presidential nomination. | US | 8/31/2008 | 11.55 | 1.09 | 25 CON | 27.37 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.32 | 4.14 | 10 CON | 41.42 |
Con
Win | Governor Bill Richardson will be nominated for President by the Democratic party | US | 8/31/2008 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.78 |
Pro
Win | Hillary Clinton in 2008 primaries to be Dem Presidential candidate but loses out to another Dem candidate | US | 8/31/2008 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 25 PRO | 49.98 |
Con
Lose | Pollution mars Bejing Olympic games | China | 8/31/2008 | 1.11 | 9.77 | 10 PRO | 11.14 |
Con
Win | Democrats will convince Senator Joe Lieberman they need him to be the Democratic presidential standard bearer for the 2008 presidential race. | US | 8/31/2008 | 25.59 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 26.02 |
Con
Win | Obama will choose Al Gore as his running mate. | US | 8/31/2008 | 31.85 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.32 |
Con
Win | The 2008 Democratic Presidential ticket will be either Obama / Clinton or Clinton / Obama | US | 8/31/2008 | 183.00 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.03 |
Pro
Win | Obama is nominated as the Democratic candidate for President | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.33 | 4.00 | 10 PRO | 13.34 |
Con
Win | Obama picks Christine Todd Whitman for his VP slot. | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Baharain King His Majesty Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be attacked and badly hurt in veciuos attack, forcing him to move into exille. | Middle East | 8/31/2008 | 27.37 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.38 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.14 |
Con
Win | Sen. Obama will hint at, or designate, a woman running mate to secure his nomination by the democratic party | US | 8/15/2008 | 13.44 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.80 |
Pro
Win | USA defeats China in Basketball. | China | 8/10/2008 | 1.01 | 101.20 | 1 PRO | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Senator Obama selects Tom Daschle as his VP running mate. | US | 8/1/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | NYC Mayor Michael Bloomburg becomes Obama''s running mate. | US | 8/1/2008 | 5.56 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.19 |
Con
Lose | The City of Detroit, Michigan will file for bankruptcy. | US | 7/31/2008 | 3.66 | 1.38 | 25 PRO | 91.43 |
Con
Win | There will be another major terrorist attack successfully carried out in the United States. | Terrorism | 7/1/2008 | 10.00 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.11 |
Con
Win | Iranian backed Shiites take over Iraq | Iraq | 6/30/2008 | 13.92 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.77 |
Pro
Lose | The Democratic National Committee announces their 2008 candidate for the President of the United States of America before Fathers Day, June 15th. | US | 6/8/2008 | 1.52 | 2.93 | 1 CON | 2.93 |
Con
Win | Israel will declare its intention to withdraw from, at least, 80% of territories it occupied in 1967 six day war. | Middle East | 6/5/2008 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 10 CON | 13.41 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies | World | 6/3/2008 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 10 CON | 13.19 |
Con
Win | China puts US economy in spin by demanding payment in Euros abandoning the US dollar | China | 6/3/2008 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 25 CON | 30.33 |
Con
Win | China military in Cuba. Announce defense and trade (subsidy) pact. | China | 5/1/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 25 CON | 28.06 |
Con
Win | Bear Stearns fails to find a buyer, and ceases to exist as a going business. | US | 4/15/2008 | 53.00 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama as the presidential ticket for the 2008 election. | US | 3/31/2008 | 8.57 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.32 |
Con
Win | Simba Makoni, ex-Zimbabwean Finance minister, will be assassinated before the General Elections in March | World | 3/30/2008 | 62.10 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.16 |
Pro
Win | City of Vallejo CA. will avoid filing bankruptcy. | US | 3/15/2008 | 1.01 | 86.80 | 5 PRO | 5.06 |
Con
Win | The New England patriots win the Super Bowl and complete a perfect 19-0 season. | Sports | 2/3/2008 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 4 CON | 6.56 |
Con
Win | Karl Rove will lose his White House job. | US | 2/3/2008 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 25 CON | 45.85 |
Pro
Win | Before the next election in Russia, there will be at least one significant incident of violence or intimidation directed against a prominent person or group opposing Putin & those with him. | Russia | 2/3/2008 | 1.10 | 10.83 | 10 PRO | 11.02 |
Con
Win | Gen. John Abizaid Announces Intent To Retire and Run For Democratic Pres. Nomination | US | 1/24/2008 | 479.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.02 |
Con
Win | Donald Rumsfeld will stay in his post at least for the remainder of the Bush Adm. | US | 1/24/2008 | 2.23 | 1.81 | 25 CON | 45.28 |
Con
Win | San Diego Chargers will go to the 2007 Season Super Bowl. | US | 1/24/2008 | 1,044.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Indianapolis Colts play in the 2007 season Super Bowl. | US | 1/14/2008 | 42.70 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Pro
Win | U.S. housing market decline - 2007 median home price lower than 2006 | US | 1/11/2008 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 25 PRO | 42.24 |
Con
Win | Ron Paul stuns Republican opponents by winning New Hampshire Primary | General | 1/11/2008 | 13.65 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.79 |
Pro
Win | The number of Western military personel killed in the Afghanistan will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | China | 1/11/2008 | 1.54 | 2.85 | 10 PRO | 15.41 |
Con
Win | Governor Doyle of Wisconsin will be indicted. | US | 1/8/2008 | 7.51 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.54 |
Pro
Win | Windows Vista DRM will be hacked, raising concerns about the security of the Vista Operating System | Sci/Tech | 1/8/2008 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 10 PRO | 16.38 |
Pro
Win | Mike Nifong, the prosecutor in the Duke rape case, will be disbarred. | US | 1/8/2008 | 1.10 | 10.89 | 10 PRO | 11.01 |
Con
Lose | Not a single mile of federally financed hard-fence (not virtual) will be built on the Mexican border in 2007. | US | 1/8/2008 | 1.26 | 4.87 | 25 PRO | 31.47 |
Con
Win | American will station the majority of its troops in the Kurdish North of Iraq and all ow the Shi'a and Sunnis fight it out. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.90 |
Pro
Win | Iran’s nuke program is never attacked; Iran builds a bomb in-secret | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.06 | 1.94 | 10 PRO | 20.61 |
Con
Win | An administration official, US House representative or US Senator will publicly advocate restoring Saddam to power in Iraq in order to end what they will call chaos. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 14.31 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 26.88 |
Con
Lose | Iran will have a nuclear tipped missle that could reqch Israel | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.98 | 1.51 | 50 PRO | 148.94 |
Con
Win | Cuba Will Become a Satellite of a Major Power Which Is Not the US | General | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.33 |
Pro
Win | American nuclear power is back! | US | 1/8/2008 | 1.18 | 6.56 | 10 PRO | 11.80 |
Con
Win | Iraq assumes responsibility for its own security. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 13.40 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.81 |
Con
Win | The S&P will be over 1600 by the last day of this year. | US | 1/8/2008 | 353.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | The S&P 500 will be 1350 or lower on December 31, 2007 | US | 1/8/2008 | 8.64 | 1.13 | 33 CON | 37.32 |
Con
Win | Iran will use a nuclear weapon against Israel within the next year. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 1,471.50 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.01 |
Con
Win | The national median home value will rise from 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2007 | US | 1/8/2008 | 4.67 | 1.27 | 10 CON | 12.72 |
Con
Win | Civil war in Lebanon (triggered by the Israeli attack) will continue until 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 10 CON | 13.18 |
Con
Win | A passenger aircraft flying out of an American airport will be hijacked. | Terrorism | 1/8/2008 | 21.95 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.48 |
Con
Win | Terrorists will strike on Canadian soil before January 1. 2008. | Terrorism | 1/8/2008 | 6.43 | 1.18 | 10 CON | 11.84 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein regains dictatorial power in Iraq | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.33 |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 52.22 |
Con
Lose | Iran will test a nuclear weapon, either openly or without acknowledging it, before 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.70 | 1.59 | 50 PRO | 135.09 |
Con
Lose | Domestic left-wing groups/individuals will attempt to assassinate a major national conservative political figure during the 2nd Bush administration. | US | 1/8/2008 | 2.72 | 1.58 | 10 PRO | 27.25 |
Con
Lose | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2007 hurricane season. | US | 12/4/2007 | 2.60 | 1.63 | 25 PRO | 64.91 |
Con
Lose | US fighters scramble to intercept Russian bombers approaching CONUS | Russia | 12/4/2007 | 8.04 | 1.14 | 10 PRO | 80.38 |
Con
Win | The United States will deploy American soldiers to the Darfur region of Sudan, as part of a UN approved peacekeeping force. | World | 12/4/2007 | 130.35 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.08 |
Con
Win | Democrats In Congress Propose Federally Mandated Licensing Of the Possession Of All Handguns Together With Mandated Fees. | US | 11/29/2007 | 9.49 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.18 |
Con
Win | The New Congress Will Debate A Proposal For Bringing Back the Draft. | US | 11/29/2007 | 6.15 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.94 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Select A Successor And Replace Cheney With That Successor. | US | 11/29/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Conduct a White House Makeover. Conservatives Purged. Cheney And At Least Rice Will Be Gone To Purchase Peace With Democrats. | US | 11/29/2007 | 61.82 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.16 |
Con
Win | Any military aircraft of any nation shot down deliberately in air-to-air combat by any other nation. | World | 11/29/2007 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.45 |
Con
Win | Al Jazeera station in Doha will be bombed flat. | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 282.75 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.04 |
Con
Win | Weapons of mass destruction ie. Chemical bio.
or atomic will be found by end of 2007 in Iraq.
however the Government will try to suppress this Info under NATIONAL SECURITIES ACT. | Iraq | 11/29/2007 | 101.00 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers will will the National League Pennant | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 152.50 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers will win the National League Central Division. | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 4.79 | 1.26 | 10 CON | 12.64 |
Con
Win | The Colorado Rockies win the World Series. | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 3.71 | 1.37 | 10 CON | 13.68 |
Con
Win | The United States conducts avowed military operations against Iran. | General | 11/29/2007 | 250.35 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.04 |
Con
Win | Turkish F16 will be shot down by Greek Air Force. | Europe | 11/29/2007 | 17.14 | 1.06 | 20 CON | 21.24 |
Con
Win | Terrorists Blow Up Euro Disney. Kill hundreds of children. Muslim Group claims responsibility. France makes massive political shift towards America and Europe on War in Middle East | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 256.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.04 |
Con
Win | John Bolton keeps his post as US Ambassabor to the United Nations. | US | 8/6/2007 | 15.95 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.67 |
Pro
Win | WTI Crude Oil will be trading at or between $55.00-$60.00 (USD) a barrel by 01/31/07. | World | 8/6/2007 | 3.48 | 1.40 | 25 PRO | 86.88 |
Con
Lose | Nigeria capitulates and deports Charles Ghankay Taylor of Liberia to stand trial for war crimes in Sierra Leone.
| World | 8/6/2007 | 2.24 | 1.81 | 10 PRO | 22.41 |
Con
Win | Pope Benedict XVI will die before March 1, 2007 | World | 8/6/2007 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 25 CON | 29.09 |
Con
Win | India will attack millitant outfits in pakistan occupied kashmir, thereby beginning the World War 3 by 01-03-07 | Terrorism | 8/6/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Lose | Japan will approve a change in it's Constitution to allow for pre-emptive strikes. | World | 8/6/2007 | 3.26 | 1.44 | 10 PRO | 32.58 |
Con
Win | Sectarian clashes in Lebanon end in civil war. Syria enters the country and install an Iran-backed military occupation. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 334.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.03 |
Con
Win | Iranian retaliation for attacks in its boarders will be attacks in Israel. Up risings in Bahrain and terrorist attacks through Iranian funded militants in Kuwait and Qatar. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 76.24 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.13 |
Con
Win | NATO Seizes Iranian Oil Fields Preliminary to Using Economic Pressure On Iran To Comply With NPT. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 218.96 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.11 |
Con
Win | year, 2007 NYC, will be attacked again by terrorist! | Terrorism | 8/6/2007 | 38.57 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.27 |
Con
Lose | Ford Motor Co. will file for bankruptcy. | US | 8/6/2007 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 25 PRO | 44.02 |
Con
Lose | General Motors will file for bankruptcy. | US | 8/6/2007 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 25 PRO | 58.37 |
Con
Lose | The 15 UK servicemen siezed by Iran in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, will still be held as of 4/10/07. | World | 8/6/2007 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 10 PRO | 23.86 |
Con
Win | Syria and Iran invade Iraq and set up insurgent puppet regime.
| Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 82.07 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.23 |
Con
Win | Israel will withdraw for more settelments after the Gaza disengagment plan | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 20 CON | 22.00 |
Con
Win | Before all US troops have pulled out of Iraq, the country will collapse into civil war and effectively Balkanize. | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 10.42 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.65 |
Con
Win | Iraq Reconciliation Deal Package - Saddam Leaves Iraq To Live In Exile | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 13.25 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.82 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran by theend of December 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 83.60 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.12 |
Pro
Win | Sen. Joe Lieberman wins his Senate seat as an Independent candidate from Conn. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.08 | 13.02 | 25 PRO | 27.08 |
Con
Win | Walid Jumblat is assasinated in Lebanon, sparking hostilities between pro Syrian and anti Syrian forces in Beirut, Israel uses this to invade Lebanon.
| Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 53.86 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.47 |
Con
Win | Ehud Olmert will lose his position as Israeli
Prime Minister not later than December 31, 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 3.45 | 1.41 | 25 CON | 35.22 |
Con
Win | Israel will wage terrorist attacks with in Iran, on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel will not be hidden it will be open war fare. Iran will counter with direct attacks on Israel. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will stage an attack in Washington D.C. against the White House Pentagon or Capitol Building before the end of the year | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 285.52 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.09 |
Con
Win | A civil war will break-out in Serbia over the political status of Kosovo. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 9.57 | 1.12 | 15 CON | 16.75 |
Con
Win | After Bush leaves office, Blair will follow him, and amid Democratic backlash to indict Bush appointees, another US terror attack will take place on the scale of 9-11 or the UK train attacks. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 76.50 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.33 |
Con
Win | A civil insurrection requiring regular armed forces troops will occur in a US city before Bush leaves office. | US | 1/18/2007 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 26.92 |
Con
Win | US Withdraws from Iraq, Which Quickly Degenerates into Civil War | Iraq | 1/18/2007 | 9.08 | 1.12 | 25 CON | 28.09 |
Con
Win | Successful or not, there will be an attempt to carry out an attack on American citizens from Canadian soil. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 5.22 | 1.24 | 10 CON | 12.37 |
Con
Win | Al qaeda will stage a major attack against an American City, resulting in at least 500 people killed or injured. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 1.75 | 2.34 | 25 CON | 58.41 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney will not be the Vice President of the US at the end of 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 9.11 | 1.12 | 25 CON | 28.08 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro will be out of power by end of 2006. | World | 1/18/2007 | 4.32 | 1.30 | 25 CON | 32.53 |
Con
Win | The chain of public relations disasters for the Chinese govt, will build into a wider, self-sustaining uprising that threatens Beijing's rule. | China | 1/18/2007 | 17.09 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.62 |
Con
Win | The Eurabian Civil War which started in Paris will become the new Sarajevo "shot heard round the world," as it generates farther-reaching ripple effects, including sinking Turkey's bid to enter EU. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 42.67 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Con
Win | William Jefferson Clinton becomes the next Secretary General of the United Nations. | World | 1/18/2007 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 100 CON | 114.71 |
Con
Win | The Repubilcans lose the Senate. | US | 1/18/2007 | 11.08 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 10.99 |
Con
Win | The US begins construction of an Isreali style fence along the Mexican-US border. | US | 1/18/2007 | 5.12 | 1.24 | 50 CON | 62.14 |
Con
Lose | 1st Terrorist Nuke Will Be Of Pakistani Origin -designed or built there, or uses Pakistani fissionables. Can be a "dirty" device if it uses a chain reaction, or be captured w/o going off. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 4.28 | 1.30 | 10 PRO | 42.79 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Iraq. | US | 1/18/2007 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.42 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will top $85 or more per barrel by November 30, 2006.
| World | 1/18/2007 | 6.12 | 1.20 | 10 CON | 11.95 |
Con
Win | The Chicago Cubs will Win the 2006 World Series | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 499.67 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.05 |
Con
Win | Prince Fielder and Russ Branyan become the first two teammates to hit 60 home runs in a season. | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 26.90 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 25.97 |
Con
Win | Iran will successfully hit Tel Aviv with a missile fired from Lebanon | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 121.33 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.08 |
Con
Lose | Castro dead. | World | 1/18/2007 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 25 PRO | 57.62 |
Con
Win | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.07 |
Pro
Win | EU Constitution not ratified by the 25 member states. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 1.15 | 7.76 | 50 PRO | 57.40 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran before the November 7th election as "October Surprise". | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 13.44 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.80 |
Con
Win | Rove's October Surprise - Scenario 1: Permanent tax cuts. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Jihadis attempt to assassinate Pope Benedict during his upcoming visit to Turkey | Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 6.18 | 1.19 | 25 CON | 29.83 |
Con
Win | Internal corruption and violence in Nigeria causes a U.S. intervention. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.19 | 1.12 | 25 CON | 28.05 |
Con
Win | A prominent Democratic Party politician (current or former: Senator, Representative, Cabinet Officer, or Governor) will be accused of financially benefiting from the U.N. Iraqi Oil-For-Food Program. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 12.62 | 1.09 | 25 CON | 27.15 |
Con
Win | Anbar province will declare its independence from Iraq. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 22.01 | 1.05 | 25 CON | 26.19 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2006 elections | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.49 | 1.67 | 10 PRO | 24.90 |
Con
Win | A major official of the EU or any European country will lose his or her job for publicly denying the Holocaust or praising Nazi Germany. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 2.95 | 1.51 | 10 CON | 15.12 |
Con
Lose | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2006 hurricane season. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.82 | 2.22 | 25 PRO | 45.43 |
Con
Win | At least one Levee is breached in New Orleans, East New Orleans or Jefferson Parrish before the end of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. | US | 12/30/2006 | 13.14 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 27.06 |
Con
Win | Venezuela attacks Colombia | General | 12/30/2006 | 10.99 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.50 |
Con
Lose | Asian bird flu epidemic turns into human pandemic | World | 12/30/2006 | 5.99 | 1.20 | 25 PRO | 149.78 |
Con
Lose | NY Attorney General Elliot Spitzer elected governor of New York state | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.14 | 8.20 | 25 PRO | 28.47 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will NOT run for a second term in the U.S. Senate representing NY State. | US | 12/30/2006 | 30.18 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.34 |
Con
Win | Tainted MLB Records Will Be Tossed | Sports | 12/30/2006 | 17.19 | 1.06 | 25 CON | 26.54 |
Con
Win | Assad regime in Syria falls | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 19.39 | 1.05 | 25 CON | 26.36 |
Pro
Lose | At least one house in Congress will change majority party in the Nov. election. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.44 | 3.30 | 10 CON | 32.97 |
Con
Win | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.26 |
Con
Win | The three U.S. soldiers charged with murder will be convicted and handed over to an Iraqi courts for sentencing. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 67.77 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.15 |
Con
Lose | Evidence will be discovered that elements of Saddam's WMD program were secreted in the Syria controlled Bekaa Valley. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 25 PRO | 44.05 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Strike Iranian Nuclear Facilit[ies]y. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.91 | 2.10 | 25 CON | 52.39 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai will be overthrown in a coup or assassinated. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 10.94 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.52 |
Con
Win | The Coup attempt in Thailand will fail | World | 10/21/2006 | 78.10 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.13 |
Con
Win | Venezuela will price its oil exports in euros rather than US Dollars. | World | 10/21/2006 | 34.48 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.30 |
Con
Win | President Chen in Taiwan will be overthrown by the people and force to resign | China | 10/21/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | UN troop strength in Lebanon will reach 15,000 by the end of September. | Middle East | 10/21/2006 | 150.81 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Lose | The International Astronomical Union publishes a definition of "planet" that includes at least Pluto and 2003UB313 ("Xena"), causing the number of recognized planets to increase above nine. | Sci/Tech | 10/21/2006 | 5.93 | 1.20 | 10 PRO | 59.30 |
Con
Win | North Korea defies the International community once more with another test launch of their Taepodong II missle | China | 10/21/2006 | 7.18 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.62 |
Con
Lose | I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby will NOT be convicted of any Federal crime associated with the Valerie Plame affair or subsequent Federal investigation. | US | 10/21/2006 | 1.16 | 7.32 | 25 PRO | 28.95 |
Con
Win | North Korea will launch a nuclear weapon test, proving current rumors of the test, true. | World | 10/21/2006 | 69.10 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.15 |
Con
Win | The United States will attempt to intercept and shoot down North Korea's missile test | World | 10/21/2006 | 24.61 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.42 |
Con
Win | Japan & Tiawan, in defence against the perceived growing threat from China, sign a mutual defence agreement by 2006. | China | 10/21/2006 | 28.15 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.37 |
Con
Win | U.S. Marines enter Beirut to evacuate Americans trapped by current hostilities to Cypres | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 4.91 | 1.26 | 25 CON | 31.40 |
Con
Win | Israel will retake a large portion of the Gaza Strip | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 14.83 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.72 |
Con
Win | Israel will succeed in detstroying Hezballahs mobile missiles | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 71.55 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.35 |
Con
Win | Kazahkstan government becomes offical (even if temporary) a pro-communist regime takes power. | World | 7/14/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Wal-Mart Announces Plan To Open First Store In Iraq | Iraq | 7/14/2006 | 19.15 | 1.06 | 25 CON | 26.38 |
Pro
Lose | North Korea will launch its Taepodong-2 missle in defiance of the Inernational community. | World | 7/14/2006 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 10 CON | 18.16 |
Con
Win | the US Congress will vote funding to study the reactivation of the USS Iowa BB61 and the USS Wisconsin BB64. | US | 6/1/2006 | 29.54 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 25.88 |
Con
Win | Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) | China | 6/1/2006 | 15.43 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.73 |
Con
Win | The United States will attack and destroy Iranian nuclear facilities by the end of April 2006. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 29.82 | 1.03 | 25 CON | 25.87 |
Con
Win | The United States conducts avowed military operations in an attempt to destroy or delay the Iranian nuclear weapons program. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 3.52 | 1.40 | 25 CON | 34.91 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair no longer Prime Minister of The United Kingdom. | Europe | 6/1/2006 | 9.73 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.87 |
Con
Lose | Morgan Stanley Dean Witter will no longer be an independent entity, either through a merger, acquisition, or sale. | General | 4/13/2006 | 34.00 | 1.03 | 50 PRO | 1,700.00 |
Con
Win | EU drops arms embargo of the People's Republic of China. | China | 4/13/2006 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.50 |
Con
Win | The next Space Shuttle launch will occur in March 2006. | Sci/Tech | 4/10/2006 | 64.81 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.39 |
Con
Win | If Robert Mugabe refuses to step down as urged by the International Crisis Group, he will be overthrown in a coup d etat. | World | 4/10/2006 | 8.35 | 1.14 | 25 CON | 28.40 |
Con
Win | Bashir Assad is assasinated in Syria causing an Islamic fundamentilist revolution within its borders. US forces debate moving into Syria to stabilize region.
| Middle East | 4/10/2006 | 20.93 | 1.05 | 25 CON | 26.25 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.35 |
Con
Win | Christians somewhere in the world will riot and kill non-christians or destroy a non-christian place of worship between March 2, 2006 and March 12, 2006. | World | 3/12/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Pro
Win | Samuel "Scalito" Alito will be confirmed by the Senate to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 3/12/2006 | 1.53 | 2.89 | 25 PRO | 38.20 |
Con
Win | Ariel Sharon loses in a no confidence vote Binyamin Natanyahu becomes Israel's new Prime Minister. | Middle East | 3/12/2006 | 15.42 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.73 |
Con
Win | A Democrat filibuster will succeed in forcing the withdrawal of Samuel "Scalito" Alito's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 3/12/2006 | 100.60 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.25 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda major attack against Italy during 2006 winter olympic games in february. | Europe | 3/12/2006 | 13.49 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 27.00 |
Con
Win | Zarqawi will be captured with help from Al-Zwahiri | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 901.50 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.01 |
Con
Win | The BCS snubs an undefeated team for the second straight year. | Sports | 1/24/2006 | 15.60 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.71 |
Con
Win | Iran stops/restricts oil export and causes significant rise in crude oil prices. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 228.67 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.04 |
Con
Lose | Harriet Miers will be confirmed by the Senate to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.47 | 1.15 | 25 PRO | 186.69 |
Con
Lose | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 10 PRO | 97.36 |
Pro
Win | Karl Rove will NOT be indicted in the Valerie Plume affair. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.57 | 2.76 | 25 PRO | 39.22 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Clarence Thomas to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.32 | 1.16 | 25 CON | 28.96 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.14 |
Con
Lose | There will be another AlQaeda suicide bombing attack in Britain before yearend. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.14 | 1.12 | 10 PRO | 91.44 |
Con
Win | Asian Bird Flu is Red Chinese biowar WMD. | China | 1/24/2006 | 145.90 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.17 |
Pro
Lose | The price of a barrel of oil will top $70 USD. | World | 1/24/2006 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 25 CON | 51.40 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein is featured in a Cheetos or Doritos commercial. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 38.13 | 1.03 | 20 CON | 20.54 |
Con
Win | A communist country goes to war with a US ally (or America itself). | World | 1/24/2006 | 35.42 | 1.03 | 20 CON | 20.58 |
Pro
Lose | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.10 | 11.14 | 50 CON | 557.22 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaeda carries out a suicide attack against a cruise ship. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 10.97 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.51 |
Con
Lose | Fidel Castro dies in 2005. | World | 1/24/2006 | 10.11 | 1.11 | 10 PRO | 101.09 |
Con
Win | Major vote fraud allegations in the Washington and Wisconsin 2004 elections finally produce effective reforms.
| US | 1/24/2006 | 11.57 | 1.09 | 25 CON | 27.37 |
Con
Lose | JPMorgan/Chase will acquire Merrill Lynch in a Stock Swap to create the United States largest financial services firm | US | 1/24/2006 | 31.77 | 1.03 | 50 PRO | 1,588.46 |
Con
Win | The House of Representatives will vote to suspend U.S. funding of the United Nations until Kofi Annan resigns. | General | 1/24/2006 | 5.03 | 1.25 | 50 CON | 62.41 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 25 CON | 25.77 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 52.09 |
Con
Lose | Major combat operations begin in Iran in 2005 after evidence suggests development of nuclear weapons, and plans to use them against Israeli and/or American interests in Mid-East. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 10 PRO | 18.01 |
Con
Win | North Korea and Iran will form an alliance and try to nuke Israel. | World | 1/24/2006 | 175.08 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.14 |
Con
Lose | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 10 PRO | 20.73 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 53.16 |
Con
Win | North Korea agrees to end its nuclear program and destroy all of its nuclear material. | World | 1/24/2006 | 8.60 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 113.16 |
Con
Lose | Next use of nuclear weapons in anger. Can be a terorist device provided it produces a true detonation and not merely a messy fizzle. | Terroism | 1/24/2006 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 25 PRO | 184.04 |
Pro
Win | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2005 hurricane season. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.97 | 2.03 | 25 PRO | 49.21 |
Con
Lose | The US begins covert military strikes against Baathist camps and leaders in Syria. | Terrorism | 12/10/2005 | 1.49 | 3.03 | 50 PRO | 74.67 |
Con
Lose | the north korean goverment will fall this time next year. | World | 12/10/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 50 PRO | 148.08 |
Con
Win | President George Bush's disapproval ratings on the war in Iraq will increase to at least 75%. | General | 11/10/2005 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.43 |
Pro
Win | There will be a 2005-6 NHL season starting in October. | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 1.05 | 22.78 | 20 PRO | 20.92 |
Con
Win | The Iraqi constitution, when put to a vote in October, will be rejected by the voters of 3 or more provinces and not go into effect. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 8.43 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.73 |
Con
Win | Chicago Cubs win the World Series | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 91.51 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.11 |
Con
Win | The Iraqi Constitution, when delivered, will implement Sharia and make Islam the religion of the state. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 26.73 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.94 |
Con
Lose | John Roberts will be confirmed by the Senate to replace the retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 11/10/2005 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 10 PRO | 20.03 |
Con
Lose | Iraq Al Qaeda leader Zarqawi is killed or captured prior to the January election. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 1.89 | 2.12 | 10 PRO | 18.91 |
Con
Lose | Iran brought before the UN Security Council by United States/Allies for possible sanctions. | World | 10/7/2005 | 3.49 | 1.40 | 50 PRO | 174.74 |
Con
Lose | Regime change in Syria | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 17.30 | 1.06 | 10 PRO | 173.04 |
Con
Win | Insurgency in Iraq will increase causing British withdrawal and Tony Blair's resignation | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 104.82 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.24 |
Pro
Win | The NY Yankees will finish the 2005 MLB season in first place in their conference. | Sports | 10/7/2005 | 2.16 | 1.86 | 25 PRO | 54.07 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.71 |
Pro
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers will finish the 2005 season at or above .500. | Sports | 10/7/2005 | 1.78 | 2.28 | 50 PRO | 89.17 |
Con
Lose | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 10 PRO | 52.70 |
Con
Lose | Russel Crowe settles out of court with Estrada with a payment over $5 million dollars | General | 9/22/2005 | 1.31 | 4.18 | 10 PRO | 13.14 |
Con
Lose | Self styled head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is captured or killed by coalition-led forces by 1st Sept. 2005.
| Iraq | 9/22/2005 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 25 PRO | 43.29 |
Con
Win | Multiple, simultaneous shootdowns of commercial aircraft by terrorists. | Terrorism | 9/22/2005 | 8.91 | 1.13 | 25 CON | 28.16 |
Con
Win | A Category 5 hurricane will make landfall in Florida. | US | 9/22/2005 | 16.49 | 1.06 | 20 CON | 21.29 |
Pro
Win | Israel completes withdrawal from Gaza Strip, including removal of all settlements therein. | Middle East | 9/22/2005 | 1.27 | 4.64 | 50 PRO | 63.73 |
Pro
Win | The death toll from Katrina will exceed 300 as determined two weeks from now. | US | 9/14/2005 | 1.08 | 14.26 | 10 PRO | 10.75 |
Pro
Win | Space Shuttle Discovery, currently on mission STS-114 MCC, will land safely in August. | Sci/Tech | 8/23/2005 | 1.00 | 217.10 | 10 PRO | 10.05 |
Con
Lose | Chief Justice Rehnquist will announce his retire before August 15. | US | 8/23/2005 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 10 PRO | 37.50 |
Con
Win | Israel occupies part of Lebanon | Middle East | 8/23/2005 | 70.85 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.36 |
Con
Win | US will challenge Venezuela to allow access to its country to investigate disappearance of woman from Aruba. | World | 8/10/2005 | 103.76 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 25 CON | 33.87 |
Con
Win | President Bush will nominate Alex Kozinski (9th Circuit Court of Appeals, appointed by Ronald Reagan) to replace the retiring Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 8/10/2005 | 16.41 | 1.06 | 25 CON | 26.62 |
Con
Lose | John Bolton will be confirmed as the next Ambassador to the United Nations. | US | 8/10/2005 | 1.31 | 4.24 | 25 PRO | 32.72 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food corruption investigations, Kofi Anan will resign as Sectretary-General of the United Nations. | Iraq | 8/10/2005 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 10 CON | 16.96 |
Pro
Win | New York City will fail in its bid to win the 2012 Olympics. | World | 7/6/2005 | 1.10 | 10.68 | 10 PRO | 11.03 |
Con
Win | Chief Justice Rehnquist will step down in the next four weeks. | US | 7/6/2005 | 4.74 | 1.27 | 10 CON | 12.67 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 54.76 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will conduct aerial eradication of Afghan poppy fields during the 2005 growing season. | World | 7/6/2005 | 9.97 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 111.15 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 25 CON | 34.84 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 25 CON | 26.34 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 25 CON | 25.70 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.02 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.56 |
Pro
Win | Bush nominee Paul Wolfowitz gets approved by World Bank Board as next Bank President. | World | 6/10/2005 | 1.06 | 18.58 | 25 PRO | 26.42 |
Con
Win | Syrian troops withdraw completely from Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.21 | 1.83 | 50 CON | 91.29 |
Con
Win | France will approve the EU Constitution referendum that will be voted on 5/29. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.58 | 1.63 | 25 CON | 40.80 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.93 |
Pro
Lose | Yassir Arafat dies, paving the way for a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 10 CON | 25.97 |
Pro
Win | Labour party wins British general election | Europe | 5/11/2005 | 1.03 | 31.05 | 25 PRO | 25.83 |
Con
Win | Australian troops will be specifically targeted within the next three months | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 34.71 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.48 |
Con
Win | US sends large-scale stabilization force to Darfur after presidential election. | World | 5/11/2005 | 16.05 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.32 |
Pro
Win | The Vatican will have to appoint a new Pope. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.22 | 5.51 | 50 PRO | 61.08 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will be from a country of the former East Block(inc. old Soviet Union). | General | 4/19/2005 | 13.47 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 27.01 |
Con
Lose | The next Pope will NOT be a European. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 25 PRO | 38.58 |
Con
Win | Next Pope will take the name Pius XIII. | General | 4/19/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 10.95 |
Con
Win | A civil war breaks out in Lebanon with Sunni-Druze-Maronites fighting a Hizbullah-Palestinian alliance. Syria will not interfere, but will provide Hizbulla/PLO with arms and intelligence | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 14.49 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.85 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.20 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.37 |
Con
Win | Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term. | US | 4/17/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 10 CON | 15.11 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 10.99 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in Italy or against a major Italian target abroad. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 2.43 | 1.70 | 100 PRO | 242.50 |
Con
Win | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.18 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.41 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.36 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda attempts repeat of Beslan massacre in Europe | Terrorism | 3/15/2005 | 18.40 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.57 |
Con
Win | The U.S. (with E.U. acquiescence) bombs targets relating to the Iranian nuclear program. | Middle East | 2/20/2005 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.89 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi elections occur on January 30, 2005 as scheduled with the majority of eligible Iraqis participating. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 100 PRO | 137.93 |
Con
Win | The UN will declare the Iraqi elections invalid and illegitimate | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 2.74 | 1.58 | 10 CON | 15.76 |
Con
Win | Eastern Ukraine Secedes in election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 16.61 | 1.06 | 20 CON | 21.28 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | EU launches sanctions on the Ukraine govt over the continuing electoral standoff there. EU refrains from referring the issue to the United Nations. | Europe | 1/4/2005 | 23.42 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 26.12 |
Con
Lose | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 6.86 | 1.17 | 20 PRO | 137.20 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.08 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.19 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 10 PRO | 10.29 |
Con
Win | In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection. | US | 1/4/2005 | 6.56 | 1.18 | 10 CON | 11.80 |
Con
Win | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.74 |
Con
Lose | Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons will be used in a terrorist attack in Aisa, Europe or North America before the new year. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 5.84 | 1.21 | 10 PRO | 58.38 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 10 CON | 12.50 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 10 PRO | 11.52 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 10 CON | 15.11 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 20 CON | 24.01 |
Con
Lose | Islamic Terrorists use a nuclear (including dirty bombs), biological or chemical weapon against the west, on any scale. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 50 PRO | 195.09 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.19 |
Con
Win | Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq. | Terrorism | 12/30/2004 | 98.59 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.15 |
Con
Lose | If President Bush is re-elected, the United States will launch a major offensive to take control of Fallujah in December with combined US and Iraqi government forces | Iraq | 12/22/2004 | 1.46 | 3.17 | 10 PRO | 14.61 |
Con
Win | Turkey will be accepted into the EU | World | 12/6/2004 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.08 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 10 PRO | 10.14 |
Con
Win | Bush names brother and Florida governor Jeb Bush to replace John Ashcroft as U.S. Attorney General. | US | 11/11/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Lose | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 10 PRO | 20.79 |
Con
Lose | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 20 PRO | 233.82 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.47 |
Con
Win | Republicans pick up at least 5 seats in the US senate from the November 2nd, 2004 elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.14 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 10 PRO | 11.54 |
Pro
Win | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 10 PRO | 10.94 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.12 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.45 | 1.29 | 10 CON | 12.90 |
Pro
Win | George W. Bush wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.70 | 2.42 | 10 PRO | 17.03 |
Con
Win | John Kerry elected President. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 10 CON | 16.37 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.77 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 10 CON | 12.50 |
Pro
Win | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 10 PRO | 11.11 |
Con
Win | The investigators of the CBS National Guard memo scandal make their report public before the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.05 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.65 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.20 |
Con
Win | Hostage takers in Iraq will issue a demand to US voters that seek an electoral outcome, vis-a-vis the US Presidential Elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.11 | 1.32 | 10 CON | 13.22 |
Con
Lose | AlQaeda will attempt a major attack on US soil within a week of the US elections, in order to influence electoral outcome, as well as to grab headlines | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 2.81 | 1.55 | 10 PRO | 28.11 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 10 CON | 13.19 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.39 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 10 CON | 12.76 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.89 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in the United States or against a major American target abroad. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 200 PRO | 285.45 |
Pro
Win | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 10 PRO | 32.06 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 10 PRO | 10.28 |
Con
Win | The Minnesota Twins win the 2004 American League Championship Series. | Sports | 10/18/2004 | 3.22 | 1.45 | 10 CON | 14.51 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai is assassinated before the Afghan elections. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 17.85 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.59 |
Con
Win | For his role in the National Guard memo scandal, Dan Rather resigns or is fired as anchor of the CBS Evening News by the 1st of October. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.37 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.43 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.52 |
Con
Lose | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 10 PRO | 153.83 |
Con
Win | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.70 |
Con
Win | Bush campaign files lawsuit for collusion between Kerry campaign and MoveOn.org. | US | 9/15/2004 | 207.47 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.05 |
Pro
Win | 300 people arrested during Republican National Convention. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.13 | 8.75 | 10 PRO | 11.29 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 10 PRO | 12.94 |
Con
Win | Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualties | Terrorism | 9/3/2004 | 16.25 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.66 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.15 |
Con
Lose | Peace efforts in Najaf fail and the Imam Ali shrine complex is raided to evict Muqtada al Sadr and his army. | Iraq | 9/1/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 10 PRO | 40.71 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 25 CON | 28.17 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden captured | Terrorism | 6/30/2004 | 1.70 | 2.44 | 100 PRO | 169.68 |
Con
Win | Major terrorist attack on Montreal public rail system prior to 06/28/04 Canadian General elections. | Terrorism | 6/29/2004 | 59.46 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.34 |
Con
Win | Major Hamas attack against Israeli civilians, killing at least a hundred people. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.85 |
