| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Prince Fielder and Russ Branyan become the first two teammates to hit 60 home runs in a season. | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 26.90 | 1.04 | 1 CON | 1.04 |
Con
Win | North Korea and Iran will form an alliance and try to nuke Israel. | World | 1/24/2006 | 175.08 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 40 CON | 51.72 |
Pro
Lose | The NY Yankees will finish the 2005 MLB season in first place in their conference. | Sports | 10/7/2005 | 2.16 | 1.86 | 1 CON | 1.86 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 1 CON | 1.07 |
Pro
Lose | The Milwaukee Brewers will finish the 2005 season at or above .500. | Sports | 10/7/2005 | 1.78 | 2.28 | 20 CON | 45.53 |
Con
Win | Malaysian Central Bank will break the US Dollar / Malaysian Ringgett peg (currently at 3.80) before China devalues the Yuan or by June 1st, 2005 | World | 9/22/2005 | 17.68 | 1.06 | 1 CON | 1.06 |
Con
Lose | Self styled head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is captured or killed by coalition-led forces by 1st Sept. 2005.
| Iraq | 9/22/2005 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 1 PRO | 1.73 |
Pro
Win | Brewers sign Ben Sheets to a contract extension. | Sports | 9/22/2005 | 5.09 | 1.24 | 1 PRO | 5.09 |
Con
Win | Popular American documentary film maker murdered | US | 9/22/2005 | 62.55 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 900 CON | 1,219.17 |
Con
Win | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 1 CON | 1.08 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Antonin Scalia to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 8/10/2005 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 90 CON | 155.18 |
Con
Win | Libya is found to have secretly hidden WMD from inspectors, despite its promises. | Terrorism | 8/10/2005 | 15.17 | 1.07 | 1 CON | 1.07 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 1 CON | 1.10 |
Con
Lose | Osama bin Laden caught or killed | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 35.66 | 1.03 | 50 PRO | 1,783.22 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will conduct aerial eradication of Afghan poppy fields during the 2005 growing season. | World | 7/6/2005 | 9.97 | 1.11 | 1 CON | 1.11 |
Con
Lose | NASA will launch Space Shuttle Discovery by July 4th. | Sci/Tech | 7/6/2005 | 1.47 | 3.12 | 1 PRO | 1.47 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 180 CON | 250.83 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 50 CON | 52.67 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 20 CON | 20.56 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Clarence Thomas to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 7/6/2005 | 2.41 | 1.71 | 90 CON | 153.69 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 90 CON | 99.04 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 90 CON | 98.31 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 1 CON | 1.11 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 500 CON | 565.57 |
Con
Win | Pentagon announces that XSS-11 microsat will be explicitly tested to fill ASAT role | Sci/Tech | 6/10/2005 | 33.56 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Pro
Win | Bush nominee Paul Wolfowitz gets approved by World Bank Board as next Bank President. | World | 6/10/2005 | 1.06 | 18.58 | 700 PRO | 739.83 |
Con
Win | Airstrikes by US forces against Iranian targets - excluding cross-border raids aimed at stemming Ansar or 'hot pursuit' scenarios. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 40 CON | 44.24 |
Con
Win | A medical researcher will be assasinated by an animal rights activist. | Terrorism | 5/31/2005 | 24.89 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.67 |
Con
Lose | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 5/31/2005 | 2.68 | 1.60 | 10 PRO | 26.77 |
Con
Lose | Syrian troops withdraw completely from Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.21 | 1.83 | 950 PRO | 2,100.42 |
Con
Win | England win the Six nations with a Grandslam. | Sports | 5/31/2005 | 12.81 | 1.08 | 1 CON | 1.08 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 1 CON | 1.04 |
Pro
Lose | In May 5 British general election anti-war rebel MP George Galloway (Respect Coalition) will defeat Labour candidate Oona King in the Bethnal Green and Bow constituency. | Europe | 5/11/2005 | 2.47 | 1.68 | 200 CON | 335.75 |
Pro
Win | Labour party wins British general election | Europe | 5/11/2005 | 1.03 | 31.05 | 1 PRO | 1.03 |
Con
Win | Robert Mugabe is re-elected President of Zimbabwe with 80% of the vote. | World | 5/11/2005 | 3.01 | 1.50 | 180 CON | 269.51 |
Con
Win | Australian troops will be specifically targeted within the next three months | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 34.71 | 1.03 | 91 CON | 93.70 |
Con
Win | US sends large-scale stabilization force to Darfur after presidential election. | World | 5/11/2005 | 16.05 | 1.07 | 1 CON | 1.07 |
Con
Win | Another coup will occur in Venezuela against President Hugo Chavez within the next year. | World | 5/11/2005 | 6.68 | 1.18 | 1 CON | 1.18 |
Con
Win | Will Chile grant Bolivia the access to the Pacific that they are asking for. | World | 4/20/2005 | 110.63 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Pro
Win | The Vatican will have to appoint a new Pope. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.22 | 5.51 | 1 PRO | 1.22 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will NOT be a European. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 1 CON | 2.84 |
Pro
Lose | Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger is chosen to replace John Paul II as Pope | General | 4/19/2005 | 4.05 | 1.33 | 1 CON | 1.33 |
Con
Win | A civil war breaks out in Lebanon with Sunni-Druze-Maronites fighting a Hizbullah-Palestinian alliance. Syria will not interfere, but will provide Hizbulla/PLO with arms and intelligence | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 14.49 | 1.07 | 1 CON | 1.07 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.12 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 1 CON | 1.04 |
Pro
Lose | The Montreal Expos do NOT move to Washington D.C. in 2005. | Sports | 4/17/2005 | 6.99 | 1.17 | 1 CON | 1.17 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 20 CON | 21.98 |
Con
Win | Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 9.55 | 1.12 | 1 CON | 1.12 |
Con
Lose | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 20 PRO | 2,264.89 |
Con
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be un-cancelled. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Israel-Palestine cease-fire collapses within one month. | Middle East | 3/15/2005 | 2.34 | 1.74 | 91 CON | 158.74 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Carlos Beltran will be signed by the New York Yankees before March 1, 2005. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 2481 CON | 3,101.09 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.73 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda attempts repeat of Beslan massacre in Europe | Terrorism | 3/15/2005 | 18.40 | 1.06 | 1 CON | 1.06 |
Pro
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be cancelled. | Sports | 2/20/2005 | 1.05 | 20.28 | 81 PRO | 85.20 |
Con
Win | Red sox free agents Jason Varitek and Orlando Cabrera will both stay with the red sox for 2005. | Sports | 2/3/2005 | 8.65 | 1.13 | 520 CON | 587.96 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 1 PRO | 1.33 |
Con
Win | Leader of the main al-Qaeda cell in North America is caught and found to be an American (born) citizen. | Terrorism | 1/30/2005 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 1 CON | 1.29 |
Con
Win | December 2004 COMEX gold settles at/above $436.50. | World | 1/30/2005 | 1.09 | 11.55 | 10 CON | 115.49 |
Con
Win | Eastern Ukraine Secedes in election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 16.61 | 1.06 | 1 CON | 1.06 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Pittsburgh Steelers win Superbowl. | Sports | 1/23/2005 | 4.10 | 1.32 | 1 CON | 1.32 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Asia tsunami and related diseases exceeds 200,000. | World | 1/20/2005 | 1.19 | 6.18 | 1 PRO | 1.19 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 1 PRO | 1.02 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 8.10 | 1.14 | 140 CON | 159.71 |
Con
Win | EU launches sanctions on the Ukraine govt over the continuing electoral standoff there. EU refrains from referring the issue to the United Nations. | Europe | 1/4/2005 | 23.42 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 52.23 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 6.86 | 1.17 | 30 CON | 35.12 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 90 CON | 100.94 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 120 CON | 134.23 |
Pro
Win | The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) system will snub at least one undefeated team. | Sports | 1/4/2005 | 1.07 | 15.77 | 1 PRO | 1.07 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 50 PRO | 51.47 |
Pro
Win | A Mid Major, either Boise State, Fresno State, Louisville or Utah will rise to #6 and receive a BCS bowl bid. | Sports | 1/4/2005 | 1.10 | 10.53 | 1 PRO | 1.10 |
Con
Win | If George Bush wins the election he will dramatically increase the military presence in Iraq in an effort to bring the war to a conclusion. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.80 | 1.08 | 1 CON | 1.08 |
Con
Lose | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 1 PRO | 14.43 |
Con
Win | Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons will be used in a terrorist attack in Aisa, Europe or North America before the new year. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 5.84 | 1.21 | 90 CON | 108.60 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 20 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.09 |
Pro
Lose | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 20 CON | 151.61 |
Con
Lose | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 10 PRO | 29.56 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.15 |
Con
Win | Breakaway republic from Indonesia | World | 1/4/2005 | 45.89 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 102.23 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.72 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 20 CON | 24.01 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 70 CON | 122.03 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 90 CON | 96.00 |
Con
Win | Terririst attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 20.08 | 1.05 | 30 CON | 31.57 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 110 CON | 110.59 |
Con
Lose | Islamic Terrorists use a nuclear (including dirty bombs), biological or chemical weapon against the west, on any scale. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 50 PRO | 195.09 |
Con
Win | Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq. | Terrorism | 12/30/2004 | 98.59 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 290 CON | 304.94 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Another hurricane (Category 1 or higher) will strike Florida this hurricane season. | US | 12/6/2004 | 44.04 | 1.02 | 71 CON | 72.65 |
Con
Lose | Turkey will be accepted into the EU | World | 12/6/2004 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 20 PRO | 205.43 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 1 PRO | 1.01 |
Con
Lose | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 10 PRO | 1,040.82 |
Con
Win | The AUC demobilization collapses, leading to a tacit alliance between the AUC and the Colombian government against FARC. | World | 12/6/2004 | 14.99 | 1.07 | 20 CON | 21.43 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean financial and civil meltdown causes South African intervention to rectify. Mugabe flees to third country to avoid trail for crimes against humanity. | World | 12/6/2004 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 1 CON | 1.08 |
Con
Win | Scott Peterson will be found NOT GUILTY of murdering his wife and unborn child. | General | 11/12/2004 | 11.33 | 1.10 | 1 CON | 1.10 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Someone dies because of political violence during the American presidential election campaign. | US | 11/7/2004 | 5.99 | 1.20 | 20 CON | 24.01 |
Pro
Lose | Sinclair Broadcasting Group, caving in to pressure, will NOT air anti-Kerry documentary. | US | 11/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.37 | 221 CON | 301.77 |
Con
Win | National League Team wins 2004 World Series. | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 5.16 | 1.24 | 10 CON | 12.41 |
Con
Win | Taiwan acquires the Ticonderoga-class CGs the U.S. Navy is retiring. | China | 11/3/2004 | 5.02 | 1.25 | 41 CON | 51.20 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 30 CON | 34.41 |
Con
Win | Anaheim Angels win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Los Angeles Dodgers win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 510.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Republicans pick up at least 5 seats in the US senate from the November 2nd, 2004 elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 1 CON | 1.21 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 1 PRO | 1.15 |
Pro
Lose | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 10 CON | 19.64 |
Pro
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will hit $53 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 1.04 | 25.17 | 50 PRO | 52.07 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will drop to $47 or less per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 10 CON | 12.64 |
Pro
Win | George W. Bush is re-elected. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.38 | 3.66 | 20 PRO | 27.52 |
Con
Win | Kerry revealed before Election Day to been given an Other-than-Honorable or Dishonorable Discharge from the U.S. military during the Vietnam War | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.75 | 1.27 | 1 CON | 1.27 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EDT on Wednesday, November 3rd, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 1 CON | 1.73 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 50 CON | 60.58 |
Con
Win | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 31 CON | 40.20 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EST on Tuesday, November 9th, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.60 | 1.22 | 1 CON | 1.22 |
Pro
Win | George W. Bush wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.70 | 2.42 | 30 PRO | 51.10 |
Pro
Win | President Bush wins reelection. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 90 PRO | 120.63 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 50 CON | 60.72 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 40 CON | 43.07 |
Con
Lose | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 30 PRO | 46.87 |
Pro
Lose | President Bush is reelected and receives more than 50% of the Popular vote. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 200 CON | 489.10 |
Pro
Win | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 21 PRO | 23.33 |
Con
Win | Homeland Security (FBI, CIA, Etc.) will announce they successfully foiled a terrorist attempt to disrupt the U.S. Presidential Election within one week of the Election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 1 CON | 1.42 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will reach $60 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | US | 11/3/2004 | 8.22 | 1.14 | 10 CON | 11.39 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.20 |
Con
Win | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 7 CON | 7.74 |
Con
Win | Hostage takers in Iraq will issue a demand to US voters that seek an electoral outcome, vis-a-vis the US Presidential Elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.11 | 1.32 | 41 CON | 54.18 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 1 CON | 1.05 |
Con
Win | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 71 CON | 119.71 |
Con
Lose | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 12 PRO | 149.75 |
Con
Win | PLO and PA Chairman Yassir Arafat dies. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 15.46 | 1.07 | 7 CON | 7.48 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.96 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 1 CON | 1.28 |
Con
Win | Forged Dan Rather Memos will be shown to have emerged either directly from the Kerry campaign or from a pro-Democrat 527 organization (such as moveon etc.) | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 143 CON | 189.51 |
Con
Lose | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 50 PRO | 314.85 |
Con
Win | Responsibility for the Abhu Ghraib incident will be charged to an officer with rank lower than Lt. Colonel. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 1 CON | 1.74 |
Pro
Lose | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 190 CON | 276.14 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 71 PRO | 72.97 |
Con
Win | The Minnesota Twins win the 2004 American League Championship Series. | Sports | 10/18/2004 | 3.22 | 1.45 | 270 CON | 391.86 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden killed or captured right in time for US elections. | US | 10/16/2004 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 30 PRO | 66.13 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai is assassinated before the Afghan elections. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 17.85 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.97 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 200 CON | 221.25 |
Pro
Win | The X-Prize is won, an attempt to privately launch a shuttle twice within 14 days. | Sci/Tech | 10/4/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 20 PRO | 28.54 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Lose | North Korea is caught proliferating nuclear materials. | World | 10/3/2004 | 10.23 | 1.11 | 20 PRO | 204.50 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in Europe. | Europe | 10/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.36 | 55 CON | 75.06 |
Con
Win | For his role in the National Guard memo scandal, Dan Rather resigns or is fired as anchor of the CBS Evening News by the 1st of October. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.37 | 1.04 | 30 CON | 31.28 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers finish above .500. | Sports | 10/1/2004 | 44.02 | 1.02 | 40 CON | 40.93 |
Con
Lose | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 10 PRO | 490.82 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 130 CON | 151.78 |
Con
Win | Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.63 | 1.04 | 1 CON | 1.04 |
Con
Lose | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 10 PRO | 1,483.13 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 90 CON | 96.26 |
Con
Win | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 130 CON | 152.16 |
Con
Win | Bush campaign files lawsuit for collusion between Kerry campaign and MoveOn.org. | US | 9/15/2004 | 207.47 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Imam Ali shrine complex is raided succesfully, but major damage occurs to the shrine; thus, sparking a mass Shia upraising. | Iraq | 9/15/2004 | 91.36 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 110 CON | 123.05 |
Con
Win | WMD attack against London. | Terrorism | 9/7/2004 | 8.39 | 1.14 | 80 CON | 90.82 |
Con
Lose | Dick Cheney announces that he will not seek the Vice-Presidency in 2004. | US | 9/3/2004 | 3.19 | 1.46 | 50 PRO | 159.52 |
Con
Win | Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualties | Terrorism | 9/3/2004 | 16.25 | 1.07 | 2 CON | 2.13 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 110 CON | 133.68 |
Con
Win | oil closes above $50.00 | World | 9/1/2004 | 6.09 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 59.83 |
Con
Win | Peace efforts in Najaf fail and the Imam Ali shrine complex is raided to evict Muqtada al Sadr and his army. | Iraq | 9/1/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 40 CON | 53.03 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack in Greece by outside (non-Greek) group(s) during the Olympic Games. | Terrorism | 8/30/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 90 CON | 176.17 |
Con
Win | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 50 CON | 113.11 |
Pro
Win | Major Chenchen attack in Russia | Russia | 8/1/2004 | 1.77 | 2.30 | 50 PRO | 88.43 |
Pro
Lose | The Supreme Court Rules that detainees at Guantanamo have the right to appeal to the Federal courts | US | 8/1/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 20 CON | 33.72 |
Con
Win | Tom Vilsack will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 20 CON | 30.63 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.44 | 1.23 | 20 CON | 24.51 |
Pro
Lose | John Edwards will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.52 | 2.93 | 20 CON | 58.51 |
Con
Win | John McCain will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Con
Win | Richard Gephardt will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 20 CON | 33.91 |
Con
Lose | Chuck Hagel will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 106.50 | 1.01 | 2 PRO | 213.00 |
Con
Win | Civil war erupts in Iraq. Shiites, Sunnites, Kurds attack Coalitian Forces and increasingly also each other. | Iraq | 6/1/2004 | 6.35 | 1.19 | 90 CON | 106.81 |
