| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Pro
Lose | The Yankees win the World Series. | Sports | 11/5/2009 | 1.12 | 9.38 | 50 CON | 469.00 |
Con
Win | Leon Panetta resigns as the head of the CIA. | US | 11/1/2009 | 12.13 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 108.98 |
Con
Win | Sino-US Flare-up | China | 10/30/2009 | 17.13 | 1.06 | 40 CON | 42.48 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Un is designated the heir apparent, and Kim Jong Il moves out of the seat of power. The transfer of power proceeds smoothly, and without any internal strife or external pressure. | China | 10/21/2009 | 11.08 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.92 |
Con
Win | Israeli-Iranian Conflict | Middle East | 9/12/2009 | 10.85 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.02 |
Con
Win | $4.00/gal or above gas prices in US by labor day, 2009. | US | 9/3/2009 | 176.60 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.28 |
Con
Win | Korea loses it internally, and a civil war breaks out to determine who controls the country. | China | 9/1/2009 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 100 CON | 128.53 |
Pro
Lose | The swine flu pandemic kills more than 2,500 people. | World | 8/28/2009 | 2.48 | 1.68 | 53 CON | 88.81 |
Con
Win | Obama visits Gaza. | US | 7/20/2009 | 439.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.23 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il will be replaced by a Pro- Chinese "North Korean" Government | China | 7/1/2009 | 28.16 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.18 |
Con
Lose | Roland Burris resigns his recently appointed Senate seat. | US | 6/30/2009 | 2.15 | 1.87 | 2 PRO | 4.29 |
Con
Win | A free floating anti-ship navel mine is encountered in waters off Somalia. The mine may be improvised. | Terrorism | 6/30/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 47 CON | 47.00 |
Con
Lose | After six months, President Obama still will not have filled his Cabinet (Dept Secretaries, NSA, WH CoS). | US | 6/21/2009 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 50 PRO | 106.92 |
Con
Win | A major terrorist attack on US soil within 180 days of Obama Inauguration | Terrorism | 6/20/2009 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 100 CON | 166.67 |
Con
Win | Prior to Iranian election, low-budget Straight of Hormuz incident created by Iranian RG elements to prop oil prices, help Ahmadinejads poll #s. | Middle East | 6/9/2009 | 6.40 | 1.19 | 44 CON | 52.16 |
Pro
Lose | US cuts F-35 in new budget | US | 5/31/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Pro
Lose | US cuts F-22 Raptor in new budget | US | 5/31/2009 | 1.08 | 13.44 | 10 CON | 134.40 |
Con
Win | Pakistan Collapses. | Middle East | 5/31/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Obama nominates Hillary Clinton to fill the Souter vacancy. | US | 5/26/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Japan shoots down the North Korean missile launch. | China | 4/5/2009 | 10.90 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.05 |
Con
Win | A nuclear attack will be carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran against the State of Israel. | Terrorism | 4/1/2009 | 31.36 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.65 |
Pro
Lose | Israel election Feb. 10.
Likud wins and forms goverment. | Middle East | 3/27/2009 | 1.08 | 13.22 | 3 CON | 39.67 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be an invasion of Taiwan by China. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a conflict between North and South Korea. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a resumption of the war on Israels northern border. The assailants can be either Hezbollah, Syria, or both. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.46 | 3.18 | 100 CON | 318.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a Russian incursion into Ukraine. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | Russia places nuclear tipped missiles in Kaliningrad. The next presidents first crisis will be a move against NATO. | US | 3/21/2009 | 6.48 | 1.18 | 100 CON | 118.24 |
Pro
Lose | The next presidents first crisis will be the flight of investment capital in reaction to an anticipated explosion in taxes and regulation. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.44 | 3.29 | 50 CON | 164.52 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a border clash between The Peoples Republic of China and North Korea. | US | 3/21/2009 | 5.52 | 1.22 | 50 CON | 61.06 |
Con
Win | Thye next presidents first crisis will be a war between Iran and Israel. | US | 3/21/2009 | 9.26 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.10 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a Russian incursion into a former Soviet Union State other than Georgia or Ukraine. | US | 3/21/2009 | 12.04 | 1.09 | 50 CON | 54.53 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a border clash in Afghanistan with Pakistani troops. | US | 3/21/2009 | 14.42 | 1.07 | 30 CON | 32.24 |
Pro
Win | Iran will not use nukes on Israel. | Middle East | 3/20/2009 | 1.23 | 5.36 | 50 PRO | 61.46 |
Con
Win | One of the Big three automakers will cease to exist. | US | 3/1/2009 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 100 CON | 116.37 |
Pro
Lose | Benjamin Netanyahu elected next Israeli Prime Minister | Middle East | 2/23/2009 | 1.35 | 3.84 | 1 CON | 3.84 |
Con
Win | The United States or Israel will destroy Iran''s nuclear facilities before 2/1/09 driving oil on the spot market over $200. a barrel. | Middle East | 2/1/2009 | 20.75 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.06 |
Con
Win | Caroline Kennedy will be selected to fill the balance of Hillary Clintons term in the US Senate. | US | 1/23/2009 | 14.47 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.71 |
Con
Win | USA or Israel will bomb Iran's Nukes | Iraq | 1/1/2009 | 1.85 | 2.17 | 50 CON | 108.60 |
Con
Win | Dow Jones average will close below 6000` | US | 1/1/2009 | 3.78 | 1.36 | 100 CON | 135.92 |
Con
Win | Iran will launch a nuclear attack against Israel | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.19 |
Con
Lose | The Iranian government dominates Iraq since it will be a nuclear power and Iranian agents or sympathizers are elected to public office and institute pro -Iranian policies. | China | 1/1/2009 | 7.25 | 1.16 | 25 PRO | 181.25 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro overthrown in coup d''etat U.S. blamed | World | 1/1/2009 | 9.60 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 111.63 |
Con
Win | The Chinese Navy will lose a warship or submarine due to a major accident by 12/31/2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 10.57 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.23 |
Pro
Win | Rafale fighter will have secured no foreign purchase contract(s) prior 01-Jan-2008 | Europe | 1/1/2009 | 1.20 | 5.92 | 25 PRO | 30.09 |
Con
Lose | The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close the 2008 year above 11,000 | US | 1/1/2009 | 862.00 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 862.00 |
Con
Win | China will have a fixed-wing aircraft carrier operational by the end of 2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 206.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.49 |
Con
Lose | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2008. | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 8.37 | 1.14 | 5 PRO | 41.84 |
Con
Win | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 50 CON | 67.29 |
Con
Win | Bush suspends Presidential elections / Martial law declared. | US | 12/19/2008 | 142.86 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.35 |
Con
Lose | Boeing will successfully challenge the KC-X contract awarded to Northrop-Grumman/Airbus. | US | 12/9/2008 | 3.77 | 1.36 | 25 PRO | 94.13 |
Con
Win | Srnator Clinton will cry in public, on-camera, at least once, before the 2008 elections are over. Crying prior to super-Tuesday 2008 does not count. | US | 11/8/2008 | 2.48 | 1.67 | 50 CON | 83.69 |
Con
Lose | Democrats increase their number of seats in the US Senate by 3. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.29 | 4.50 | 10 PRO | 12.86 |
Con
Win | The Perfect Storm 2008 - Obama elected President; Democrats increase to 60 Senate seats (filibuster proof) and Democrats increase their control in House of Representives. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.85 | 2.18 | 40 CON | 87.09 |
Con
Lose | Republican candidate wins the white House/Presidency in 2008 election. | US | 11/5/2008 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 50 PRO | 131.36 |
Con
Lose | Rep. John Murtha loses his seat to challenger Bill Russell. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.00 | 430.00 | 25 PRO | 25.06 |
Con
Win | McCain will be elected president of the United States | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.79 | 2.27 | 50 CON | 113.26 |
Con
Win | Barrack Obama is found to have more than $10 million in illegal campaign donations and does not win the election (either resigns or loses) due to the worst political scandal since Watergate. | US | 11/4/2008 | 31.33 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.65 |
Pro
Win | The person elected President of the US in 2008 will be or will have been a US Senator. | US | 11/3/2008 | 1.07 | 15.24 | 50 PRO | 53.51 |
Con
Win | The person elected President of the US in 2008 will be or will have been governor of a state. | US | 11/3/2008 | 10.02 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.54 |
Con
Win | October Surprise: A US surveillance flight is shot down over Iran and the pilot taken captive during the month of October. | Middle East | 11/2/2008 | 5.81 | 1.21 | 26 CON | 31.41 |
Con
Win | The city of Atlanta, Georgia will run out of drinking water in 2008 | US | 10/31/2008 | 103.50 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.49 |
Con
Win | Tampa Bay beats Philadelphia in the World Series | Sports | 10/29/2008 | 16.00 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.33 |
Con
Lose | Rudolf Guilianni will be elected president of the United States, | US | 10/15/2008 | 5.75 | 1.21 | 50 PRO | 287.32 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clilnton will be elected president of the united States. | US | 10/15/2008 | 4.48 | 1.29 | 100 CON | 128.70 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be elected president of the United States. | US | 10/15/2008 | 3.09 | 1.48 | 100 CON | 147.93 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will stay in the race no matter who the democratic nominee is (e.g. she will run as an Independent if Obama wins the nomination). | US | 10/15/2008 | 51.75 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 50.99 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro captured in Cuba and brought to the U.S. on outstanding drug smuggling warrants | World | 10/15/2008 | 13.00 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.34 |
Pro
Lose | The S & P 500 will be below 1000 | US | 10/7/2008 | 44.18 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 51.16 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin drops out as McCains runnning mate. | US | 10/5/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | Sarah Palin resigns as McCains VP candidate. | US | 10/5/2008 | 5.62 | 1.22 | 100 CON | 121.67 |
Con
Win | The Chicago Cubs winn 100 or more games during the regular season. | Sports | 9/27/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Mike Huckabee will be elected President of the United States | US | 9/27/2008 | 20.74 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.07 |
Con
Win | New center/right reform populist party fields a presidential ticket for the '08 election. | US | 9/14/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.23 |
Con
Lose | Rudolf Giuliani will be nominated as the Repeblican candidate for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 3.07 | 1.48 | 100 PRO | 306.56 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 77.83 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.65 |
Con
Win | Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee will be the Republican presidental nominee for the 2008 presidential election. | US | 9/9/2008 | 50.19 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 51.02 |
Con
Lose | Mitt Romney will be nominated as the Repeblican candidate for President
| US | 9/9/2008 | 7.58 | 1.15 | 10 PRO | 75.76 |
Con
Win | Fred Dalton Thompson will be the Republican nominee for the 2008 Presidential election. | US | 9/5/2008 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 100 CON | 121.33 |
Con
Win | Bobby Jindal will be the Republican VP nominee. | US | 9/5/2008 | 2.36 | 1.73 | 25 CON | 43.33 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.32 | 4.14 | 100 CON | 414.24 |
Con
Win | Governor Bill Richardson will be nominated for President by the Democratic party | US | 8/31/2008 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 53.88 |
Pro
Win | Hillary Clinton in 2008 primaries to be Dem Presidential candidate but loses out to another Dem candidate | US | 8/31/2008 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 50 PRO | 99.97 |
Con
Lose | Pollution mars Bejing Olympic games | China | 8/31/2008 | 1.11 | 9.77 | 10 PRO | 11.14 |
Con
Win | Democrats will convince Senator Joe Lieberman they need him to be the Democratic presidential standard bearer for the 2008 presidential race. | US | 8/31/2008 | 25.59 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 52.03 |
Con
Win | The 2008 Democratic Presidential ticket will be either Obama / Clinton or Clinton / Obama | US | 8/31/2008 | 183.00 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.27 |
Pro
Win | Obama is nominated as the Democratic candidate for President | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.33 | 4.00 | 100 PRO | 133.35 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.69 |
Con
Win | Sen. Obama will hint at, or designate, a woman running mate to secure his nomination by the democratic party | US | 8/15/2008 | 13.44 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.02 |
Con
Win | C. RICE will be nominated as V.P. for Republican Party August 2008 | US | 8/1/2008 | 3.19 | 1.46 | 100 CON | 145.67 |
Con
Win | NYC Mayor Michael Bloomburg becomes Obama''s running mate. | US | 8/1/2008 | 5.56 | 1.22 | 100 CON | 121.93 |
Con
Win | Israel will declare its intention to withdraw from, at least, 80% of territories it occupied in 1967 six day war. | Middle East | 6/5/2008 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 100 CON | 134.07 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies | World | 6/3/2008 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 50 CON | 65.93 |
Con
Win | China military in Cuba. Announce defense and trade (subsidy) pact. | China | 5/1/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.12 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama as the presidential ticket for the 2008 election. | US | 3/31/2008 | 5.88 | 1.20 | 200 CON | 240.95 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama as the presidential ticket for the 2008 election. | US | 3/31/2008 | 8.57 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.60 |
Con
Win | Simba Makoni, ex-Zimbabwean Finance minister, will be assassinated before the General Elections in March | World | 3/30/2008 | 62.10 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.64 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will have firm orders for at least 650 787 Dreamliners (all models) before the delivery of the first aircraft in May 2008. | Sci/Tech | 3/8/2008 | 1.01 | 79.00 | 100 PRO | 101.28 |
Con
Lose | The New England patriots win the Super Bowl and complete a perfect 19-0 season. | Sports | 2/3/2008 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 25 PRO | 64.14 |
Con
Win | Gen. John Abizaid Announces Intent To Retire and Run For Democratic Pres. Nomination | US | 1/24/2008 | 479.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.21 |
Pro
Win | Gov. Mike Huckabee wins Iowa Republican Presedencail caucuse. | US | 1/14/2008 | 1.03 | 30.40 | 25 PRO | 25.85 |
Pro
Lose | The number of civilians killed in Iraq in 2007 will be higher than 2006 | Iraq | 1/11/2008 | 1.29 | 4.47 | 1 CON | 4.47 |
Con
Win | Ron Paul stuns Republican opponents by winning New Hampshire Primary | General | 1/11/2008 | 13.65 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 53.95 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will sell at least 60 B787 aircraft [firm orders only] between 1/1/2007 and 12/31/2007. | General | 1/11/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 PRO | 50.00 |
Pro
Lose | The number of Western military personel killed in the Afghanistan will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | China | 1/11/2008 | 1.54 | 2.85 | 100 CON | 284.77 |
Con
Win | Governor Doyle of Wisconsin will be indicted. | US | 1/8/2008 | 7.51 | 1.15 | 18 CON | 20.77 |
Con
Lose | Not a single mile of federally financed hard-fence (not virtual) will be built on the Mexican border in 2007. | US | 1/8/2008 | 1.26 | 4.87 | 50 PRO | 62.93 |
Con
Win | American will station the majority of its troops in the Kurdish North of Iraq and all ow the Shi'a and Sunnis fight it out. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 50 CON | 59.48 |
Con
Win | An administration official, US House representative or US Senator will publicly advocate restoring Saddam to power in Iraq in order to end what they will call chaos. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 14.31 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.75 |
Con
Lose | A Najif type battle occurs in Basra when Muqata Al-Sadar again defies the iraqi government. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 50 PRO | 438.70 |
Con
Lose | Iran will have a nuclear tipped missle that could reqch Israel | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.98 | 1.51 | 100 PRO | 297.89 |
Con
Win | Cuba Will Become a Satellite of a Major Power Which Is Not the US | General | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.27 |
Con
Win | Iraq assumes responsibility for its own security. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 13.40 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 27.02 |
Con
Win | Iran will use a nuclear weapon against Israel within the next year. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 1,471.50 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.03 |
Con
Lose | The national median home value will rise from 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2007 | US | 1/8/2008 | 4.67 | 1.27 | 30 PRO | 140.17 |
Con
Lose | Civil war in Lebanon (triggered by the Israeli attack) will continue until 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 25 PRO | 103.54 |
Con
Lose | Bird flu threat leads to a cull of poultry in the continental U.S., exceeding 1,000 count. | US | 1/8/2008 | 6.69 | 1.18 | 50 PRO | 334.46 |
Con
Win | Domestic left-wing groups/individuals will attempt to assassinate a major national conservative political figure during the 2nd Bush administration. | US | 1/8/2008 | 2.72 | 1.58 | 100 CON | 157.98 |
Con
Lose | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2007 hurricane season. | US | 12/4/2007 | 2.60 | 1.63 | 35 PRO | 90.87 |
Con
Win | US fighters scramble to intercept Russian bombers approaching CONUS | Russia | 12/4/2007 | 8.04 | 1.14 | 50 CON | 57.10 |
Con
Win | The United States will deploy American soldiers to the Darfur region of Sudan, as part of a UN approved peacekeeping force. | World | 12/4/2007 | 130.35 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.39 |
Con
Win | The Chicago Cubs will win the 2007 Major League BaseBall World Series | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 73.77 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.37 |
Con
Win | The New Congress Will Debate A Proposal For Bringing Back the Draft. | US | 11/29/2007 | 6.15 | 1.19 | 25 CON | 29.86 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Select A Successor And Replace Cheney With That Successor. | US | 11/29/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Conduct a White House Makeover. Conservatives Purged. Cheney And At Least Rice Will Be Gone To Purchase Peace With Democrats. | US | 11/29/2007 | 61.82 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 50.82 |
Con
Win | Al Jazeera station in Doha will be bombed flat. | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 282.75 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.18 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers will will the National League Pennant | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 152.50 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.17 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers will win the National League Central Division. | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 4.79 | 1.26 | 25 CON | 31.59 |
Con
Win | The Colorado Rockies win the World Series. | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 3.71 | 1.37 | 100 CON | 136.84 |
Con
Lose | The Milwaukee Brewers will finish over .500 | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 1.03 | 40.50 | 25 PRO | 25.63 |
Con
Win | Turkish F16 will be shot down by Greek Air Force. | Europe | 11/29/2007 | 17.14 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 53.10 |
Con
Win | Terrorists Blow Up Euro Disney. Kill hundreds of children. Muslim Group claims responsibility. France makes massive political shift towards America and Europe on War in Middle East | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 256.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.20 |
Con
Lose | Civilian war deaths in Lebanon will exceed civil war deaths in Israel by at least a 10:1 ratio at 2006 year end (BBC news and Red Cross figures to be used in case of dispute). | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 1.18 | 6.55 | 25 PRO | 29.50 |
Con
Lose | Segolene Royal will be elected President of France. | Europe | 8/6/2007 | 4.84 | 1.26 | 50 PRO | 242.10 |
Con
Win | India will attack millitant outfits in pakistan occupied kashmir, thereby beginning the World War 3 by 01-03-07 | Terrorism | 8/6/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | Japan will approve a change in it's Constitution to allow for pre-emptive strikes. | World | 8/6/2007 | 3.26 | 1.44 | 50 CON | 72.14 |
Con
Win | Sectarian clashes in Lebanon end in civil war. Syria enters the country and install an Iran-backed military occupation. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 334.00 | 1.00 | 60 CON | 60.18 |
Con
Win | Iranian retaliation for attacks in its boarders will be attacks in Israel. Up risings in Bahrain and terrorist attacks through Iranian funded militants in Kuwait and Qatar. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 76.24 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.66 |
Con
Win | NATO Seizes Iranian Oil Fields Preliminary to Using Economic Pressure On Iran To Comply With NPT. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 218.96 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.46 |
Con
Win | The 15 UK servicemen siezed by Iran in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, will still be held as of 4/10/07. | World | 8/6/2007 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 50 CON | 86.07 |
Con
Win | Syria and Iran invade Iraq and set up insurgent puppet regime.
| Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 82.07 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.62 |
Con
Win | Hezbollah will be strengthened by the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 9.79 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 111.38 |
Con
Win | UPS will cancel its A380F order leaving Airbus without any customers for the A380. | General | 8/6/2007 | 5.57 | 1.22 | 50 CON | 60.93 |
Pro
Lose | Sen. Joe Lieberman wins his Senate seat as an Independent candidate from Conn. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.08 | 13.02 | 5 CON | 65.11 |
Con
Win | Taiwan test fires there Hsiung Feng III missle creating further tension with China | China | 1/18/2007 | 7.13 | 1.16 | 50 CON | 58.16 |
Con
Win | Finland applies for NATO membership. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 41.76 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 102.45 |
Con
Lose | Israel will still be fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon in December, 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.52 | 2.91 | 10 PRO | 15.24 |
Con
Win | Malaysia the victim of a large-scale Islamic fundamentalist movement resulting in the overthrow of the current government. | World | 1/18/2007 | 9.54 | 1.12 | 62 CON | 69.26 |
Con
Win | Ehud Olmert will lose his position as Israeli
Prime Minister not later than December 31, 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 3.45 | 1.41 | 10 CON | 14.09 |
Con
Win | Israel will wage terrorist attacks with in Iran on the Iranian nuclear facilities.Iran will counter with terrorist attacks and open attacks on Israel and the Gulf States. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | The United States will conduct a massive air campaign that will bomb every Iranian nuclear facility and every Iranian air base that has missles. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 5.36 | 1.23 | 100 CON | 122.96 |
Con
Lose | US and/or Iraqi Forces engage in large scale operations against the Muqtada Al Sadr's Mehdi miltia anywhere within Iraq. | Iraq | 1/18/2007 | 3.69 | 1.37 | 50 PRO | 184.57 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack two souther or western or midwestern American Cities simultaneously | China | 1/18/2007 | 263.90 | 1.00 | 200 CON | 200.76 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will stage an attack in Washington D.C. against the White House Pentagon or Capitol Building before the end of the year | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 285.52 | 1.00 | 125 CON | 125.44 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.06 | 19.14 | 100 PRO | 105.51 |
Con
Win | A civil insurrection requiring regular armed forces troops will occur in a US city before Bush leaves office. | US | 1/18/2007 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 53.84 |
Con
Win | US Withdraws from Iraq, Which Quickly Degenerates into Civil War | Iraq | 1/18/2007 | 9.08 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.19 |
Con
Win | Al qaeda will stage a major attack against an American City, resulting in at least 500 people killed or injured. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 1.75 | 2.34 | 100 CON | 233.63 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney will not be the Vice President of the US at the end of 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 9.11 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.33 |
Con
Win | Saddam WMD found before 12/31/06 | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 79.00 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.64 |
Con
Lose | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will top $85 or more per barrel by November 30, 2006.
| World | 1/18/2007 | 6.12 | 1.20 | 15 PRO | 91.75 |
Con
Win | Prince Fielder and Russ Branyan become the first two teammates to hit 60 home runs in a season. | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 26.90 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.93 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon is used in anger in either India or Pakistan. | World | 1/18/2007 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.00 |
Con
Win | Iran will successfully hit Tel Aviv with a missile fired from Lebanon | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 121.33 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.21 |
Con
Lose | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 5 PRO | 51.58 |
Con
Lose | Results of 2006 mid-term elections - Republicans take losses but still retain control of both House and Senate. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 20 PRO | 34.60 |
Con
Win | Jihadis attempt to assassinate Pope Benedict during his upcoming visit to Turkey | Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 6.18 | 1.19 | 30 CON | 35.80 |
Con
Win | Internal corruption and violence in Nigeria causes a U.S. intervention. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.19 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.21 |
Con
Lose | Arnold Schwarzenegger will NOT be re-elected Governor of California. | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.91 | 1.52 | 25 PRO | 72.71 |
Con
Win | A prominent Democratic Party politician (current or former: Senator, Representative, Cabinet Officer, or Governor) will be accused of financially benefiting from the U.N. Iraqi Oil-For-Food Program. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 12.62 | 1.09 | 25 CON | 27.15 |
Con
Win | Anbar province will declare its independence from Iraq. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 22.01 | 1.05 | 50 CON | 52.38 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2006 elections | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.49 | 1.67 | 50 PRO | 124.48 |
Con
Lose | A Hurricane hits the Iberian Peninsula during the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 14.35 | 1.07 | 1 PRO | 14.35 |
Con
Win | Diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Venezuela will be severed. | US | 12/30/2006 | 8.55 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.62 |
Con
Win | Military conflict erupts between India and Pakistan. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.21 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.18 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will NOT run for a second term in the U.S. Senate representing NY State. | US | 12/30/2006 | 30.18 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.71 |
Con
Win | Tainted MLB Records Will Be Tossed | Sports | 12/30/2006 | 17.19 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 53.09 |
Con
Win | The UN Security Council will impose new sanctions against the Iranian government in response to Iran's threat to resume its uranium enrichment programme.
| Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 17.95 | 1.06 | 20 CON | 21.18 |
Con
Win | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.04 |
Con
Win | The three U.S. soldiers charged with murder will be convicted and handed over to an Iraqi courts for sentencing. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 67.77 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.75 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Strike Iranian Nuclear Facilit[ies]y. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.91 | 2.10 | 50 CON | 104.77 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai will be overthrown in a coup or assassinated. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 10.94 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.06 |
Con
Win | Venezuela will price its oil exports in euros rather than US Dollars. | World | 10/21/2006 | 34.48 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.99 |
Con
Win | President Chen in Taiwan will be overthrown by the people and force to resign | China | 10/21/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | UN troop strength in Lebanon will reach 15,000 by the end of September. | Middle East | 10/21/2006 | 150.81 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.17 |
Con
Lose | The International Astronomical Union publishes a definition of "planet" that includes at least Pluto and 2003UB313 ("Xena"), causing the number of recognized planets to increase above nine. | Sci/Tech | 10/21/2006 | 5.93 | 1.20 | 50 PRO | 296.48 |
Con
Win | North Korea defies the International community once more with another test launch of their Taepodong II missle | China | 10/21/2006 | 7.18 | 1.16 | 50 CON | 58.09 |
Con
Win | US troop strength in Iraq falls below 115,000. | Iraq | 10/21/2006 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 100 CON | 160.86 |
Con
Win | World War 3 Is Coming In 2006 | China | 10/21/2006 | 25.49 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.08 |
Con
Win | The United States will attempt to intercept and shoot down North Korea's missile test | World | 10/21/2006 | 24.61 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 26.06 |
Con
Win | U.S. Marines enter Beirut to evacuate Americans trapped by current hostilities to Cypres | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 4.91 | 1.26 | 100 CON | 125.61 |
Con
Win | Israel will retake a large portion of the Gaza Strip | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 14.83 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.62 |
Con
Win | 22nd of August, Iranian Attack on Isreal | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 8.94 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.30 |
Pro
Lose | Crude oil remains above $60.00 a barrel for the next 12 months. | General | 7/14/2006 | 1.84 | 2.19 | 50 CON | 109.27 |
Con
Win | Gold Reaches highest value in recorded history. When Iran announces their non-compliance with demands to stop enriching uranium.
| World | 6/1/2006 | 8.17 | 1.14 | 20 CON | 22.79 |
Con
Win | the US Congress will vote funding to study the reactivation of the USS Iowa BB61 and the USS Wisconsin BB64. | US | 6/1/2006 | 29.54 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.75 |
Con
Win | The United States will attack and destroy Iranian nuclear facilities by the end of April 2006. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 29.82 | 1.03 | 250 CON | 258.67 |
Con
Win | The United States conducts avowed military operations in an attempt to destroy or delay the Iranian nuclear weapons program. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 3.52 | 1.40 | 100 CON | 139.64 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair no longer Prime Minister of The United Kingdom. | Europe | 6/1/2006 | 9.73 | 1.11 | 75 CON | 83.60 |
Con
Win | EU drops arms embargo of the People's Republic of China. | China | 4/13/2006 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.50 |
Con
Win | If Robert Mugabe refuses to step down as urged by the International Crisis Group, he will be overthrown in a coup d etat. | World | 4/10/2006 | 8.35 | 1.14 | 200 CON | 227.22 |
Con
Win | A Democrat filibuster will succeed in forcing the withdrawal of Samuel "Scalito" Alito's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 3/12/2006 | 100.60 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.50 |
Con
Win | Formal decision reached to relocate at least half of all American troops based in Western Europe to Eastern Europe or Middle East. | US | 3/12/2006 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 150 CON | 195.10 |
Con
Win | Turkey formally accepted into European Union. | Europe | 3/12/2006 | 5.10 | 1.24 | 50 CON | 62.20 |
Con
Win | Independent Palestinian state created. | Middle East | 3/12/2006 | 12.76 | 1.09 | 50 CON | 54.25 |
Con
Win | Iran stops/restricts oil export and causes significant rise in crude oil prices. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 228.67 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.22 |
Con
Lose | Harriet Miers will be confirmed by the Senate to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.47 | 1.15 | 50 PRO | 373.38 |
Con
Win | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.72 |
Pro
Win | Karl Rove will NOT be indicted in the Valerie Plume affair. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.57 | 2.76 | 25 PRO | 39.22 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Clarence Thomas to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.32 | 1.16 | 50 CON | 57.91 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.57 |
Con
Win | There will be another AlQaeda suicide bombing attack in Britain before yearend. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.14 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.14 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorist attack the Vatican and/or Pope. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 16.26 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.28 |
Con
Win | Asian Bird Flu is Red Chinese biowar WMD. | China | 1/24/2006 | 145.90 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.35 |
Pro
Lose | The price of a barrel of oil will top $70 USD. | World | 1/24/2006 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 25 CON | 51.40 |
Con
Win | The DJIA will close at least once above 11,500 by 12/31/2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 250 CON | 312.50 |
Con
Win | A communist country goes to war with a US ally (or America itself). | World | 1/24/2006 | 35.42 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.91 |
Con
Win | Nigeria capitulates and deports Charles Ghankay Taylor of Liberia to stand trial for war crimes in Sierra Leone. | World | 1/24/2006 | 12.12 | 1.09 | 150 CON | 163.49 |
Con
Win | The DJIA will close below 8,500 at least once by 12/31/2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 128.50 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.78 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.10 | 11.14 | 50 PRO | 54.93 |
Con
Lose | Fidel Castro dies in 2005. | World | 1/24/2006 | 10.11 | 1.11 | 25 PRO | 252.73 |
Con
Win | By 2006 the Feds begin a nationwide crackdown of illegal immigration except they ONLY target the employers of the illegals and not the illegals themselves. | US | 1/24/2006 | 9.83 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.66 |
Con
Win | The House of Representatives will vote to suspend U.S. funding of the United Nations until Kofi Annan resigns. | General | 1/24/2006 | 5.03 | 1.25 | 100 CON | 124.83 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 25 CON | 25.77 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 52.09 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorists will successfully smuggle WMD into the U.S. via Mexico. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 18.43 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.87 |
Con
Win | Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration Objections | US | 1/24/2006 | 8.25 | 1.14 | 100 CON | 113.80 |
Con
Win | U.S. invades Baathist Syria from Iraq. | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.44 | 1.29 | 50 CON | 64.55 |
Con
Win | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 100 CON | 129.31 |
Con
Win | A Chinese taikonaut (astronaut) is lost in a fatal accident during a space mission. | China | 1/24/2006 | 6.71 | 1.18 | 50 CON | 58.75 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Afghanistan. | US | 1/24/2006 | 12.86 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.22 |
Con
Win | North Korea agrees to end its nuclear program and destroy all of its nuclear material. | World | 1/24/2006 | 8.60 | 1.13 | 25 CON | 28.29 |
Con
Lose | US Army will fail to meet its recruiting quotas for the next six months. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.30 | 4.28 | 50 PRO | 65.23 |
Pro
Win | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2005 hurricane season. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.97 | 2.03 | 25 PRO | 49.21 |
Con
Win | The US begins covert military strikes against Baathist camps and leaders in Syria. | Terrorism | 12/10/2005 | 1.49 | 3.03 | 50 CON | 151.34 |
Con
Win | Bosnian Serbs Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic are turned over to the International War Crimes court in The Hague. | Europe | 12/10/2005 | 13.33 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.05 |
Con
Win | President George Bush's disapproval ratings on the war in Iraq will increase to at least 75%. | General | 11/10/2005 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.43 |
Con
Win | Chicago Cubs win the World Series | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 91.51 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.10 |
Con
Win | The Iraqi Constitution, when delivered, will implement Sharia and make Islam the religion of the state. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 26.73 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.94 |
Con
Lose | John Roberts will be confirmed by the Senate to replace the retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 11/10/2005 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 50 PRO | 100.16 |
Con
Lose | Iraq Al Qaeda leader Zarqawi is killed or captured prior to the January election. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 1.89 | 2.12 | 20 PRO | 37.81 |
Con
Win | Iran brought before the UN Security Council by United States/Allies for possible sanctions. | World | 10/7/2005 | 3.49 | 1.40 | 10 CON | 14.01 |
Con
Win | Regime change in Syria | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 17.30 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 53.07 |
Con
Win | Insurgency in Iraq will increase causing British withdrawal and Tony Blair's resignation | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 104.82 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.48 |
Pro
Win | Kofi Annan is still U.N. Secretary General | World | 10/7/2005 | 1.03 | 34.26 | 50 PRO | 51.50 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.42 |
Con
Win | US and non-Iraqi allies have fewer than 100,000 troops in Iraq | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 50 CON | 69.70 |
Pro
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers will finish the 2005 season at or above .500. | Sports | 10/7/2005 | 1.78 | 2.28 | 10 PRO | 17.83 |
Con
Win | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 50 CON | 61.71 |
Con
Win | Multiple, simultaneous shootdowns of commercial aircraft by terrorists. | Terrorism | 9/22/2005 | 8.91 | 1.13 | 25 CON | 28.16 |
Con
Win | The EU will lift the arms embargo against China, despite Administration protests. | Europe | 9/22/2005 | 1.60 | 2.68 | 100 CON | 268.02 |
Con
Lose | A Category 5 hurricane will make landfall in Florida. | US | 9/22/2005 | 16.49 | 1.06 | 25 PRO | 412.17 |
Con
Win | The Republicans in the US Senate will use the "nuclear" option on judicial nominees. The Democrats will make good on their threat of closing down the government. | US | 9/22/2005 | 4.79 | 1.26 | 50 CON | 63.21 |
Pro
Lose | Israel completes withdrawal from Gaza Strip, including removal of all settlements therein. | Middle East | 9/22/2005 | 1.27 | 4.64 | 25 CON | 116.02 |
Pro
Win | The death toll from Katrina will exceed 300 as determined two weeks from now. | US | 9/14/2005 | 1.08 | 14.26 | 50 PRO | 53.77 |
Pro
Win | Space Shuttle Discovery, currently on mission STS-114 MCC, will land safely in August. | Sci/Tech | 8/23/2005 | 1.00 | 217.10 | 100 PRO | 100.46 |
Con
Win | Israel occupies part of Lebanon | Middle East | 8/23/2005 | 70.85 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.72 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 50 CON | 67.73 |
Pro
Win | New York City will fail in its bid to win the 2012 Olympics. | World | 7/6/2005 | 1.10 | 10.68 | 100 PRO | 110.33 |
Con
Win | Chief Justice Rehnquist will step down in the next four weeks. | US | 7/6/2005 | 4.74 | 1.27 | 50 CON | 63.37 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 54.76 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 100 CON | 139.35 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 200 CON | 210.70 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.79 |
Con
Win | U.S launches airstrikes on targets in Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 3.25 | 1.45 | 100 CON | 144.54 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Clarence Thomas to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 7/6/2005 | 2.41 | 1.71 | 200 CON | 341.52 |
Con
Lose | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 100 PRO | 1,095.74 |
Con
Lose | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 50 PRO | 431.29 |
Con
Win | Airstrikes by US forces against Iranian targets - excluding cross-border raids aimed at stemming Ansar or 'hot pursuit' scenarios. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 110.61 |
Con
Win | US Naval blockaid of Iran enforcing UN resolution that Iran must halt nuclear weapons development activities. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 3.11 | 1.47 | 35 CON | 51.58 |
Con
Win | In the first half of 2005, the President will announce plans to pull most or all U.S. troops out of Iraq. | Iraq | 5/31/2005 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.46 |
Con
Win | Syrian troops withdraw completely from Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.21 | 1.83 | 50 CON | 91.29 |
Pro
Win | Labour party wins British general election | Europe | 5/11/2005 | 1.03 | 31.05 | 150 PRO | 154.99 |
Con
Lose | Robert Mugabe is re-elected President of Zimbabwe with 80% of the vote. | World | 5/11/2005 | 3.01 | 1.50 | 100 PRO | 301.10 |
Pro
Win | The Vatican will have to appoint a new Pope. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.22 | 5.51 | 50 PRO | 61.08 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will be from a country of the former East Block(inc. old Soviet Union). | General | 4/19/2005 | 13.47 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.01 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will NOT be a European. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 25 CON | 71.03 |
Con
Win | Next Pope will take the name Pius XIII. | General | 4/19/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.38 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.30 |
Con
Win | US bombs the Iranian nuclear facilities to stop work on nuclear weapons. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 11.44 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.39 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 25 CON | 27.47 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in Italy or against a major Italian target abroad. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 2.43 | 1.70 | 100 PRO | 242.50 |
Con
Lose | Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 9.55 | 1.12 | 100 PRO | 955.45 |
Con
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be un-cancelled. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda attempts repeat of Beslan massacre in Europe | Terrorism | 3/15/2005 | 18.40 | 1.06 | 25 CON | 26.44 |
Pro
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be cancelled. | Sports | 2/20/2005 | 1.05 | 20.28 | 100 PRO | 105.19 |
Con
Win | Eastern Ukraine Secedes in election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 16.61 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.40 |
Con
Win | Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich will use his military and police to violently suppress the Opposition protesters against his re-election. | General | 1/30/2005 | 9.24 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.07 |
Pro
Win | Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) will win the Palestinian presidential election held on January 9th, 2005. | Middle East | 1/10/2005 | 1.04 | 26.72 | 50 PRO | 51.94 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 200 PRO | 203.80 |
Con
Lose | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 6.86 | 1.17 | 25 PRO | 171.50 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.08 |
Con
Win | Revolution in Iran | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 50 CON | 88.49 |
Con
Win | UN imposes trade sanctions on Iran for failure to cooperate with IAE Comission. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 6.89 | 1.17 | 100 CON | 116.98 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.15 |
Con
Lose | If President Bush is re-elected, the United States will launch a major offensive to take control of Fallujah in December with combined US and Iraqi government forces | Iraq | 12/22/2004 | 1.46 | 3.17 | 40 PRO | 58.45 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean financial and civil meltdown causes South African intervention to rectify. Mugabe flees to third country to avoid trail for crimes against humanity. | World | 12/6/2004 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 107.75 |
Con
Win | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 25 CON | 64.92 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.47 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 25 PRO | 28.86 |
Pro
Win | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 50 PRO | 101.88 |
Pro
Win | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 10 PRO | 10.94 |
Con
Win | Kerry revealed before Election Day to been given an Other-than-Honorable or Dishonorable Discharge from the U.S. military during the Vietnam War | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.75 | 1.27 | 20 CON | 25.33 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EST on Tuesday, November 9th, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.60 | 1.22 | 25 CON | 30.43 |
Pro
Win | President Bush wins reelection. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 25 PRO | 33.51 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 53.84 |
Con
Lose | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 50 PRO | 250.19 |
Pro
Win | Bush reelected in November 2 | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 50 PRO | 81.94 |
Pro
Lose | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 10 CON | 100.30 |
Con
Lose | Homeland Security (FBI, CIA, Etc.) will announce they successfully foiled a terrorist attempt to disrupt the U.S. Presidential Election within one week of the Election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 5 PRO | 16.91 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will reach $60 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | US | 11/3/2004 | 8.22 | 1.14 | 20 CON | 22.77 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Con
Win | AlQaeda will attempt a major attack on US soil within a week of the US elections, in order to influence electoral outcome, as well as to grab headlines | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 2.81 | 1.55 | 75 CON | 116.42 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 25 CON | 32.97 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 200 CON | 217.42 |
Con
Win | PLO and PA Chairman Yassir Arafat dies. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 15.46 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.73 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 50 CON | 63.79 |
Con
Lose | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 50 PRO | 314.85 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in the United States or against a major American target abroad. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 50 CON | 167.03 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.72 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers finish above .500. | Sports | 10/1/2004 | 44.02 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.23 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 51.04 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 50 CON | 58.38 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.48 |
Pro
Win | Disclplinary action (of any sort)for the Abu Ghraib incident will be faced by an officer with rank of Brig. General or higher. | US | 9/16/2004 | 1.38 | 3.65 | 100 PRO | 137.72 |
Con
Win | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.70 |
Pro
Win | 300 people arrested during Republican National Convention. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.13 | 8.75 | 50 PRO | 56.45 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 50 PRO | 64.70 |
Con
Win | Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualties | Terrorism | 9/3/2004 | 16.25 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.28 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 30 CON | 36.46 |
Con
Lose | Peace efforts in Najaf fail and the Imam Ali shrine complex is raided to evict Muqtada al Sadr and his army. | Iraq | 9/1/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 50 PRO | 203.55 |
Con
Lose | Terrorist attack in Greece by outside (non-Greek) group(s) during the Olympic Games. | Terrorism | 8/30/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 50 PRO | 102.22 |
Pro
Lose | The Supreme Court Rules that detainees at Guantanamo have the right to appeal to the Federal courts | US | 8/1/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 50 CON | 84.31 |
Con
Lose | Wesley Clark will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.47 | 1.22 | 30 PRO | 164.18 |
Con
Win | 9/11 commission explicitly blames Bush | US | 7/23/2004 | 14.74 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.64 |
Con
Lose | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 7/14/2004 | 6.05 | 1.20 | 50 PRO | 302.67 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Abu Ghraib scandal, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigns. | US | 6/30/2004 | 26.56 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.96 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden captured | Terrorism | 6/30/2004 | 1.70 | 2.44 | 50 PRO | 84.84 |
Con
Win | Civil war erupts in Iraq. Shiites, Sunnites, Kurds attack Coalitian Forces and increasingly also each other. | Iraq | 6/1/2004 | 6.35 | 1.19 | 100 CON | 118.68 |
Con
Win | A definitive link is made between Al Quaeda and the ETA with regard to the bombings in Madrid | Terrorism | 4/9/2004 | 6.08 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 59.84 |
