| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | China military in Cuba. Announce defense and trade (subsidy) pact. | China | 5/1/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.22 |
Con
Win | William Jefferson Clinton becomes the next Secretary General of the United Nations. | World | 1/18/2007 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.47 |
Con
Win | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 30 CON | 33.22 |
Con
Win | Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) | China | 6/1/2006 | 15.43 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.35 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 57 CON | 58.76 |
Con
Win | Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration Objections | US | 1/24/2006 | 8.25 | 1.14 | 3 CON | 3.41 |
Con
Win | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 15 CON | 19.40 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 101 CON | 107.37 |
Con
Win | Next use of nuclear weapons in anger. Can be a terorist device provided it produces a true detonation and not merely a messy fizzle. | Terroism | 1/24/2006 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 105 CON | 121.50 |
Con
Win | Regime change in Syria | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 17.30 | 1.06 | 15 CON | 15.92 |
Pro
Win | Kofi Annan is still U.N. Secretary General | World | 10/7/2005 | 1.03 | 34.26 | 27 PRO | 27.81 |
Con
Win | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 7 CON | 8.64 |
Con
Win | Within one year, hard evidence is found that Osama bin Laden is alive and is running Al Qaeda from Pakistan. Due to "diplomatic" reasons, U.S. Armed Forces will be unable to act on this information. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.74 | 1.21 | 30 CON | 36.33 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 18 CON | 24.38 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food corruption investigations, Kofi Anan will resign as Sectretary-General of the United Nations. | Iraq | 8/10/2005 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 10 CON | 16.96 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 20 CON | 27.87 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 5 CON | 5.46 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 20 CON | 22.26 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 75 CON | 84.83 |
Con
Win | Airstrikes by US forces against Iranian targets - excluding cross-border raids aimed at stemming Ansar or 'hot pursuit' scenarios. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 5/31/2005 | 2.68 | 1.60 | 85 CON | 135.69 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.39 |
Con
Win | Australian troops will be specifically targeted within the next three months | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 34.71 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.30 |
Con
Win | Another coup will occur in Venezuela against President Hugo Chavez within the next year. | World | 5/11/2005 | 6.68 | 1.18 | 15 CON | 17.64 |
Con
Win | US bombs the Iranian nuclear facilities to stop work on nuclear weapons. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 11.44 | 1.10 | 20 CON | 21.92 |
Con
Win | US Army adopts 6.8mm round for its new M-8 assault rifle. Heavier round favored because it is deadlier than 5.56mm round. | US | 4/17/2005 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 53 CON | 69.86 |
Con
Win | The interem government due to govern Iraq between July 1 and elections next year does not last until elections, but resigns or is thrown out | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 12.32 | 1.09 | 1 CON | 1.09 |
Pro
Win | Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005 | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.08 | 12.86 | 5 PRO | 5.42 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.15 |
Con
Win | National elections in Iraq | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.76 | 1.57 | 50 CON | 78.49 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 25.90 |
Con
Lose | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 5 PRO | 29.91 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 50 CON | 87.16 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 75 CON | 80.00 |
Con
Win | Islamic Terrorists use a nuclear (including dirty bombs), biological or chemical weapon against the west, on any scale. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 15 CON | 20.17 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 75 CON | 75.73 |
Con
Lose | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 4 PRO | 8.32 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.03 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 30 CON | 32.81 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 25 CON | 28.67 |
Con
Win | Anaheim Angels win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 307 CON | 307.93 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 15 CON | 18.17 |
Pro
Lose | George W. Bush wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.70 | 2.42 | 20 CON | 48.44 |
Pro
Lose | President Bush is reelected and receives more than 50% of the Popular vote. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 100 CON | 244.55 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 65 CON | 66.53 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 25.98 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 10 CON | 12.76 |
Con
Win | Forged Dan Rather Memos will be shown to have emerged either directly from the Kerry campaign or from a pro-Democrat 527 organization (such as moveon etc.) | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 100 CON | 132.52 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 5 CON | 5.94 |
Con
Lose | Responsibility for the Abhu Ghraib incident will be charged to an officer with rank lower than Lt. Colonel. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 10 PRO | 23.51 |
Con
Win | Yankees sweep the Red Sox | Sports | 10/20/2004 | 3.44 | 1.41 | 116 CON | 163.62 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden killed or captured right in time for US elections. | US | 10/16/2004 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 45 CON | 82.37 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 5 CON | 5.53 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.21 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 25 CON | 29.19 |
Pro
Lose | Disclplinary action (of any sort)for the Abu Ghraib incident will be faced by an officer with rank of Brig. General or higher. | US | 9/16/2004 | 1.38 | 3.65 | 1 CON | 3.65 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 5 CON | 5.59 |
Con
Win | WMD attack against London. | Terrorism | 9/7/2004 | 8.39 | 1.14 | 10 CON | 11.35 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack in Greece by outside (non-Greek) group(s) during the Olympic Games. | Terrorism | 8/30/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 5 CON | 9.79 |
Con
Win | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 3 CON | 6.79 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 5 CON | 5.63 |
Pro
Win | The Supreme Court Rules that detainees at Guantanamo have the right to appeal to the Federal courts | US | 8/1/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 3 PRO | 7.37 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.44 | 1.23 | 4 CON | 4.90 |
Con
Win | Tom Vilsack will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 5 CON | 7.66 |
Pro
Lose | John Edwards will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.52 | 2.93 | 10 CON | 29.25 |
Con
Win | Richard Gephardt will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 5 CON | 8.48 |
Con
Win | 9/11 commission explicitly blames Bush | US | 7/23/2004 | 14.74 | 1.07 | 20 CON | 21.46 |
Con
Win | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 7/14/2004 | 6.05 | 1.20 | 25 CON | 29.95 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Abu Ghraib scandal, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigns. | US | 6/30/2004 | 26.56 | 1.04 | 35 CON | 36.37 |
Con
Win | Major terrorist attack on Montreal public rail system prior to 06/28/04 Canadian General elections. | Terrorism | 6/29/2004 | 59.46 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.09 |
Pro
Lose | Oil price rises above $44 | US | 6/1/2004 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 5 CON | 14.18 |
