| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Lose | Sino-US Flare-up | China | 10/30/2009 | 17.13 | 1.06 | 100 PRO | 1,713.33 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Un is designated the heir apparent, and Kim Jong Il moves out of the seat of power. The transfer of power proceeds smoothly, and without any internal strife or external pressure. | China | 10/21/2009 | 11.08 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.92 |
Con
Win | Before the end of summer, at least one civilian will be killed by uniformed officers not displaying police or military insignia while participating in protests or demonstrations within the UK.
| Europe | 9/22/2009 | 597.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.17 |
Con
Lose | Before the end of the summer, one or more civilians will be shot dead by soldiers of the British Army while participating in protests or demonstrations within the United Kingdom.
| Europe | 9/22/2009 | 10.26 | 1.11 | 100 PRO | 1,026.00 |
Con
Lose | Israeli-Iranian Conflict | Middle East | 9/12/2009 | 10.85 | 1.10 | 100 PRO | 1,084.50 |
Con
Lose | Korea loses it internally, and a civil war breaks out to determine who controls the country. | China | 9/1/2009 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 100 PRO | 450.45 |
Con
Lose | Before the end of the summer, one or more civilians will be shot dead by police officers while participating in protests or demonstrations within the United Kingdom.
| China | 8/23/2009 | 14.40 | 1.07 | 100 PRO | 1,440.00 |
Con
Win | A major provocation by North Korea against South Korea. This may be an attack at sea at the northern limit line, an attack at the dmz, or another type of attack that stops short of an all out war. | China | 7/7/2009 | 13.07 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.28 |
Con
Lose | President Obama normalizes relations with Cuba. | US | 5/2/2009 | 4.27 | 1.31 | 100 PRO | 427.10 |
Con
Win | Japan shoots down the North Korean missile launch. | China | 4/5/2009 | 10.90 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.10 |
Pro
Win | Iran will not use nukes on Israel. | Middle East | 3/20/2009 | 1.23 | 5.36 | 100 PRO | 122.92 |
Con
Win | George W. Bush succeeded by his vice-president. | US | 1/20/2009 | 5.46 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.24 |
Con
Win | In about 2 years Chavez will begin border skirmishes with one of Venezuela's neighbours (Guyana, Colombia or Brazil) as a way of exercising his "bolivarian forces". | World | 1/1/2009 | 2.29 | 1.77 | 50 CON | 88.70 |
Con
Lose | Arab nations will initiate mutual discussion on the subject of the eventual formation of an Arab federal union(perhaps AU). | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 5.80 | 1.21 | 50 PRO | 289.78 |
Con
Lose | Tom Delay is convicted of consipracy to violate Texas state campaign finance laws | US | 1/1/2009 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 100 PRO | 569.38 |
Con
Win | China will have a fixed-wing aircraft carrier operational by the end of 2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 206.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.49 |
Con
Lose | Dick Cheney does not finish 2nd term. | US | 1/1/2009 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 50 PRO | 243.43 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will vote to re-instate a military draft before the 2008 elections | US | 11/5/2008 | 35.46 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.45 |
Con
Win | Republican candidate wins the white House/Presidency in 2008 election. | US | 11/5/2008 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 50 CON | 80.73 |
Con
Win | Republican nominee Senator John McCain handily defeats Democrat nominee Senator Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 100 CON | 363.64 |
Pro
Win | Obama is elected President of the United States | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.66 | 2.50 | 100 PRO | 166.47 |
Con
Win | The Constitution of the United States is amended to permit naturalized citizens to be President. | US | 11/1/2008 | 7.66 | 1.15 | 50 CON | 57.51 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will stay in the race no matter who the democratic nominee is (e.g. she will run as an Independent if Obama wins the nomination). | US | 10/15/2008 | 51.75 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 50.99 |
Con
Win | Will Senator McCain choose Senator Joe Lieberman as his running mate? | US | 9/5/2008 | 2.89 | 1.53 | 50 CON | 76.52 |
Con
Win | Riots break out at the 2008 Democratic Convention | US | 9/2/2008 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 50 CON | 75.00 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.32 | 4.14 | 100 CON | 414.24 |
Con
Lose | Pollution mars Bejing Olympic games | China | 8/31/2008 | 1.11 | 9.77 | 100 PRO | 111.40 |
Con
Lose | Democrats will convince Senator Joe Lieberman they need him to be the Democratic presidential standard bearer for the 2008 presidential race. | US | 8/31/2008 | 25.59 | 1.04 | 100 PRO | 2,558.67 |
Con
Win | Obama will choose Al Gore as his running mate. | US | 8/31/2008 | 31.85 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.24 |
Con
Win | Baharain King His Majesty Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be attacked and badly hurt in veciuos attack, forcing him to move into exille. | Middle East | 8/31/2008 | 27.37 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.90 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.69 |
Con
Lose | China puts US economy in spin by demanding payment in Euros abandoning the US dollar | China | 6/3/2008 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 100 PRO | 569.37 |
Pro
Win | Before the next election in Russia, there will be at least one significant incident of violence or intimidation directed against a prominent person or group opposing Putin & those with him. | Russia | 2/3/2008 | 1.10 | 10.83 | 50 PRO | 55.09 |
Con
Win | Gen. John Abizaid Announces Intent To Retire and Run For Democratic Pres. Nomination | US | 1/24/2008 | 479.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.21 |
Pro
Win | The number of civilians killed in Iraq in 2007 will be higher than 2006 | Iraq | 1/11/2008 | 1.29 | 4.47 | 50 PRO | 64.41 |
Pro
Win | The number of US military personel killed in the Middle East will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | Middle East | 1/11/2008 | 1.53 | 2.87 | 50 PRO | 76.67 |
Pro
Lose | U.S. housing market decline - 2007 median home price lower than 2006 | US | 1/11/2008 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 100 CON | 245.03 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe or his followers publicly state that they have killed a catholic priest or other member of a catholic religious order. | World | 1/8/2008 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.30 |
Pro
Win | Windows Vista DRM will be hacked, raising concerns about the security of the Vista Operating System | Sci/Tech | 1/8/2008 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 50 PRO | 81.90 |
Con
Win | An administration official, US House representative or US Senator will publicly advocate restoring Saddam to power in Iraq in order to end what they will call chaos. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 14.31 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 53.76 |
Con
Lose | Civil war in Lebanon (triggered by the Israeli attack) will continue until 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 50 PRO | 207.08 |
Con
Win | America will succeed in creating a stable democratic Iraq. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 4.46 | 1.29 | 50 CON | 64.46 |
Con
Lose | Bird flu threat leads to a cull of poultry in the continental U.S., exceeding 1,000 count. | US | 1/8/2008 | 6.69 | 1.18 | 50 PRO | 334.46 |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.44 |
Con
Win | Iran will test a nuclear weapon, either openly or without acknowledging it, before 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.70 | 1.59 | 10 CON | 15.88 |
Con
Win | Turkey will carry out a major offensive against the PKK, and cross the border into Iraq by end of August. | Iraq | 12/9/2007 | 3.42 | 1.41 | 100 CON | 141.36 |
Con
Win | Democrats In Congress Propose Federally Mandated Licensing Of the Possession Of All Handguns Together With Mandated Fees. | US | 11/29/2007 | 9.49 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 55.89 |
Con
Win | Al Jazeera station in Doha will be bombed flat. | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 282.75 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.18 |
Con
Win | Terrorists Blow Up Euro Disney. Kill hundreds of children. Muslim Group claims responsibility. France makes massive political shift towards America and Europe on War in Middle East | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 256.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.20 |
Con
Lose | Civilian war deaths in Lebanon will exceed civil war deaths in Israel by at least a 10:1 ratio at 2006 year end (BBC news and Red Cross figures to be used in case of dispute). | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 1.18 | 6.55 | 50 PRO | 59.01 |
Con
Win | John Bolton keeps his post as US Ambassabor to the United Nations. | US | 8/6/2007 | 15.95 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.34 |
Con
Lose | Pope Benedict XVI will die before March 1, 2007 | World | 8/6/2007 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 50 PRO | 355.65 |
Con
Win | Japan will approve a change in it's Constitution to allow for pre-emptive strikes. | World | 8/6/2007 | 3.26 | 1.44 | 50 CON | 72.14 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden killed, body produced. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 5.20 | 1.24 | 50 CON | 61.91 |
Con
Win | NATO Seizes Iranian Oil Fields Preliminary to Using Economic Pressure On Iran To Comply With NPT. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 218.96 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.46 |
Con
Lose | Hezbollah will be strengthened by the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 9.79 | 1.11 | 50 PRO | 489.45 |
Pro
Lose | Sen. Joe Lieberman wins his Senate seat as an Independent candidate from Conn. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.08 | 13.02 | 50 CON | 651.10 |
Con
Win | Walid Jumblat is assasinated in Lebanon, sparking hostilities between pro Syrian and anti Syrian forces in Beirut, Israel uses this to invade Lebanon.
| Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 53.86 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.89 |
Con
Lose | Israel will still be fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon in December, 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.52 | 2.91 | 50 PRO | 76.21 |
Pro
Lose | The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close the 2006 year above 11,000 | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.14 | 8.37 | 50 CON | 418.41 |
Pro
Win | Israel's incursion into Gaza will not stop the Qassam rocket attacks | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 3.02 | 1.50 | 50 PRO | 150.93 |
Con
Win | During the next presidential administration, bills will be introduced in the House and Senate that would allow non-natural-born US Citizens to run for President. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 10 CON | 19.03 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack two souther or western or midwestern American Cities simultaneously | China | 1/18/2007 | 263.90 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.38 |
Con
Lose | The Repubilcans lose the Senate. | US | 1/18/2007 | 11.08 | 1.10 | 50 PRO | 554.00 |
Con
Win | The US begins construction of an Isreali style fence along the Mexican-US border. | US | 1/18/2007 | 5.12 | 1.24 | 50 CON | 62.14 |
Con
Lose | One or more space tourists will be killed in a flight accident in the first year of private commercial space travel. | Sci/Tech | 1/18/2007 | 7.83 | 1.15 | 50 PRO | 391.59 |
Con
Win | 1st Terrorist Nuke Will Be Of Pakistani Origin -designed or built there, or uses Pakistani fissionables. Can be a "dirty" device if it uses a chain reaction, or be captured w/o going off. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 4.28 | 1.30 | 25 CON | 32.62 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Iraq. | US | 1/18/2007 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 26.05 |
Con
Win | Saddam WMD found before 12/31/06 | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 79.00 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.64 |
Con
Lose | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will top $85 or more per barrel by November 30, 2006.
| World | 1/18/2007 | 6.12 | 1.20 | 50 PRO | 305.82 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon is used in anger in either India or Pakistan. | World | 1/18/2007 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.00 |
Con
Win | Castro dead. | World | 1/18/2007 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 50 CON | 88.32 |
Con
Win | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 30 CON | 33.22 |
Con
Lose | Results of 2006 mid-term elections - Republicans take losses but still retain control of both House and Senate. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 50 PRO | 86.49 |
Con
Win | Jihadis attempt to assassinate Pope Benedict during his upcoming visit to Turkey | Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 6.18 | 1.19 | 50 CON | 59.66 |
Con
Win | Internal corruption and violence in Nigeria causes a U.S. intervention. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.19 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.21 |
Con
Lose | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2006 hurricane season. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.82 | 2.22 | 100 PRO | 181.73 |
Con
Win | Military conflict erupts between India and Pakistan. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.21 | 1.12 | 20 CON | 22.44 |
Con
Lose | Asian bird flu epidemic turns into human pandemic | World | 12/30/2006 | 5.99 | 1.20 | 50 PRO | 299.55 |
Con
Win | Assad regime in Syria falls | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 19.39 | 1.05 | 50 CON | 52.72 |
Pro
Win | At least one house in Congress will change majority party in the Nov. election. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.44 | 3.30 | 50 PRO | 71.77 |
Con
Win | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.52 |
Con
Win | Democrat Bill Nelson will NOT be re-elected to the U.S. Senate representing Florida. | US | 12/30/2006 | 14.52 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.70 |
Con
Win | Evidence will be discovered that elements of Saddam's WMD program were secreted in the Syria controlled Bekaa Valley. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 50 CON | 115.62 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai will be overthrown in a coup or assassinated. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 10.94 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.01 |
Con
Lose | North Korea defies the International community once more with another test launch of their Taepodong II missle | China | 10/21/2006 | 7.18 | 1.16 | 50 PRO | 358.94 |
Con
Win | World War 3 Is Coming In 2006 | China | 10/21/2006 | 25.49 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.08 |
Con
Win | Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, will be found/discovered in the Iranian embassy in Lebanon. | Middle East | 10/21/2006 | 468.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.11 |
Con
Lose | U.S. Marines enter Beirut to evacuate Americans trapped by current hostilities to Cypres | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 4.91 | 1.26 | 50 PRO | 245.27 |
Con
Win | 22nd of August, Iranian Attack on Isreal | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 8.94 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.30 |
Con
Win | Israel will succeed in detstroying Hezballahs mobile missiles | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 71.55 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.71 |
Con
Lose | Tony Blair no longer Prime Minister of The United Kingdom. | Europe | 6/1/2006 | 9.73 | 1.11 | 50 PRO | 486.25 |
Con
Lose | The falling dollar/euro exchange rate will drive the German economy formally into recession by the end of 2005 | Europe | 4/13/2006 | 3.29 | 1.44 | 50 PRO | 164.66 |
Con
Win | EU drops arms embargo of the People's Republic of China. | China | 4/13/2006 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.00 |
Con
Win | If Robert Mugabe refuses to step down as urged by the International Crisis Group, he will be overthrown in a coup d etat. | World | 4/10/2006 | 8.35 | 1.14 | 10 CON | 11.36 |
Con
Win | Bashir Assad is assasinated in Syria causing an Islamic fundamentilist revolution within its borders. US forces debate moving into Syria to stabilize region.
| Middle East | 4/10/2006 | 20.93 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.02 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.70 |
Con
Win | Fundamentalist Islamic supporters kidnap a local prominent citizien of the USA in the USA and behead him in the USA when their demands are not met. | Terrorism | 3/12/2006 | 8.78 | 1.13 | 30 CON | 33.85 |
Con
Win | [Mind You This Is Only A Prediction] There Will Be An Assassination Attempt Made On President George W. Bush. Not By Arab Terrorists But By American Liberal[s]. | US | 1/24/2006 | 3.69 | 1.37 | 100 CON | 137.15 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Clarence Thomas to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.32 | 1.16 | 50 CON | 57.91 |
Con
Win | Asian Bird Flu is Red Chinese biowar WMD. | China | 1/24/2006 | 145.90 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.35 |
Pro
Win | The price of a barrel of oil will top $70 USD. | World | 1/24/2006 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 100 PRO | 194.69 |
Con
Win | The DJIA will close at least once above 11,500 by 12/31/2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 100 CON | 125.00 |
Con
Win | A communist country goes to war with a US ally (or America itself). | World | 1/24/2006 | 35.42 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.45 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaeda carries out a suicide attack against a cruise ship. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 10.97 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.01 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies in 2005. | World | 1/24/2006 | 10.11 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.49 |
Con
Win | A terrorist group files suit against the United States of America or an American defense company. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 8.87 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.36 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 30 CON | 30.93 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 52.09 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorists will successfully smuggle WMD into the U.S. via Mexico. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 18.43 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.87 |
Con
Win | Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration Objections | US | 1/24/2006 | 8.25 | 1.14 | 25 CON | 28.45 |
Con
Lose | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 50 PRO | 103.63 |
Con
Lose | US Army will fail to meet its recruiting quotas for the next six months. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.30 | 4.28 | 50 PRO | 65.23 |
Pro
Win | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2005 hurricane season. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.97 | 2.03 | 50 PRO | 98.42 |
Con
Lose | the north korean goverment will fall this time next year. | World | 12/10/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 30 PRO | 88.85 |
Pro
Win | Kofi Annan is still U.N. Secretary General | World | 10/7/2005 | 1.03 | 34.26 | 50 PRO | 51.50 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.71 |
Con
Win | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 50 CON | 61.71 |
Con
Lose | Within one year, hard evidence is found that Osama bin Laden is alive and is running Al Qaeda from Pakistan. Due to "diplomatic" reasons, U.S. Armed Forces will be unable to act on this information. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.74 | 1.21 | 30 PRO | 172.23 |
Con
Lose | Haliburton will be found to have commited overcharging and fraud by Army accountants on no bid contracts for US troop support through subsidiary Brown & Root. | US | 9/22/2005 | 2.42 | 1.71 | 10 PRO | 24.15 |
Con
Lose | Malaysian Central Bank will break the US Dollar / Malaysian Ringgett peg (currently at 3.80) before China devalues the Yuan or by June 1st, 2005 | World | 9/22/2005 | 17.68 | 1.06 | 50 PRO | 883.87 |
Con
Win | Self styled head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is captured or killed by coalition-led forces by 1st Sept. 2005.
| Iraq | 9/22/2005 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 50 CON | 118.35 |
Con
Win | Multiple, simultaneous shootdowns of commercial aircraft by terrorists. | Terrorism | 9/22/2005 | 8.91 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.32 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans in the US Senate will use the "nuclear" option on judicial nominees. The Democrats will make good on their threat of closing down the government. | US | 9/22/2005 | 4.79 | 1.26 | 100 PRO | 478.61 |
Con
Win | Israel occupies part of Lebanon | Middle East | 8/23/2005 | 70.85 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.72 |
Con
Lose | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 100 PRO | 381.98 |
Con
Lose | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 100 PRO | 1,423.25 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Antonin Scalia to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 8/10/2005 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 30 CON | 51.73 |
Con
Lose | Conservative mullah elected president in Iran | World | 8/10/2005 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 50 PRO | 102.23 |
Con
Lose | Chief Justice Rehnquist will step down in the next four weeks. | US | 7/6/2005 | 4.74 | 1.27 | 50 PRO | 236.94 |
Con
Win | Osama bin Laden caught or killed | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 35.66 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.44 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will conduct aerial eradication of Afghan poppy fields during the 2005 growing season. | World | 7/6/2005 | 9.97 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.58 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.35 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.79 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Clarence Thomas to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 7/6/2005 | 2.41 | 1.71 | 30 CON | 51.23 |
Con
Lose | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 10 PRO | 109.57 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 20 CON | 21.85 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 15 CON | 16.70 |
Con
Win | France will approve the EU Constitution referendum that will be voted on 5/29. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.58 | 1.63 | 50 CON | 81.60 |
Pro
Win | In May 5 British general election anti-war rebel MP George Galloway (Respect Coalition) will defeat Labour candidate Oona King in the Bethnal Green and Bow constituency. | Europe | 5/11/2005 | 2.47 | 1.68 | 50 PRO | 123.66 |
Pro
Win | Labour party wins British general election | Europe | 5/11/2005 | 1.03 | 31.05 | 100 PRO | 103.33 |
Con
Lose | Another coup will occur in Venezuela against President Hugo Chavez within the next year. | World | 5/11/2005 | 6.68 | 1.18 | 25 PRO | 166.93 |
Con
Lose | The next Pope will be from Portugal, Spain or a western European country south of the Alps. | General | 4/19/2005 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 50 PRO | 203.57 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will be from a country of the former East Block(inc. old Soviet Union). | General | 4/19/2005 | 13.47 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.02 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.20 |
Con
Win | Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term. | US | 4/17/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 10 CON | 15.11 |
Con
Lose | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 10 PRO | 111.05 |
Con
Win | Israel-Palestine cease-fire collapses within one month. | Middle East | 3/15/2005 | 2.34 | 1.74 | 100 CON | 174.44 |
Con
Win | The U.S. (with E.U. acquiescence) bombs targets relating to the Iranian nuclear program. | Middle East | 2/20/2005 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.89 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 100 PRO | 132.55 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi elections occur on January 30, 2005 as scheduled with the majority of eligible Iraqis participating. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 50 PRO | 68.96 |
Con
Win | Leader of the main al-Qaeda cell in North America is caught and found to be an American (born) citizen. | Terrorism | 1/30/2005 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 45 CON | 57.98 |
Con
Win | Eastern Ukraine Secedes in election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 16.61 | 1.06 | 30 CON | 31.92 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 30 CON | 30.00 |
Con
Lose | Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich will use his military and police to violently suppress the Opposition protesters against his re-election. | General | 1/30/2005 | 9.24 | 1.12 | 50 PRO | 461.93 |
Con
Win | EU launches sanctions on the Ukraine govt over the continuing electoral standoff there. EU refrains from referring the issue to the United Nations. | Europe | 1/4/2005 | 23.42 | 1.04 | 30 CON | 31.34 |
Con
Lose | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 6.86 | 1.17 | 100 PRO | 686.00 |
Con
Lose | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 50 PRO | 461.50 |
Pro
Lose | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 10 CON | 349.45 |
Con
Win | In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection. | US | 1/4/2005 | 6.56 | 1.18 | 10 CON | 11.80 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 20 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.09 |
Con
Lose | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 50 PRO | 207.34 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 50 PRO | 57.60 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 50 CON | 75.57 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.45 |
Con
Lose | National elections in Iraq | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.76 | 1.57 | 50 PRO | 137.75 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 60.03 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 15 CON | 26.15 |
Con
Win | Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq. | Terrorism | 12/30/2004 | 98.59 | 1.01 | 30 CON | 30.31 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.15 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.14 |
Con
Win | Turkey will be accepted into the EU | World | 12/6/2004 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.39 |
Con
Lose | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 10 PRO | 1,040.82 |
Con
Win | Bush names brother and Florida governor Jeb Bush to replace John Ashcroft as U.S. Attorney General. | US | 11/11/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Lose | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 50 PRO | 103.96 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.03 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 25 CON | 27.34 |
Con
Win | Taiwan acquires the Ticonderoga-class CGs the U.S. Navy is retiring. | China | 11/3/2004 | 5.02 | 1.25 | 30 CON | 37.46 |
Con
Lose | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 50 PRO | 81.32 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 30 CON | 34.41 |
Con
Win | Republicans pick up at least 5 seats in the US senate from the November 2nd, 2004 elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 30 CON | 36.43 |
Pro
Win | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 10 PRO | 20.38 |
Pro
Lose | George W. Bush is re-elected. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.38 | 3.66 | 50 CON | 182.98 |
Pro
Lose | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 30 CON | 348.26 |
Con
Win | Kerry revealed before Election Day to been given an Other-than-Honorable or Dishonorable Discharge from the U.S. military during the Vietnam War | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.75 | 1.27 | 50 CON | 63.33 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 50 CON | 60.58 |
Con
Lose | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 50 PRO | 218.53 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.14 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 30 CON | 32.31 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 30 CON | 37.49 |
Pro
Lose | Bush reelected in November 2 | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 50 CON | 128.27 |
Pro
Lose | President Bush is reelected and receives more than 50% of the Popular vote. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 30 CON | 73.36 |
Con
Lose | Homeland Security (FBI, CIA, Etc.) will announce they successfully foiled a terrorist attempt to disrupt the U.S. Presidential Election within one week of the Election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 30 PRO | 101.44 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 30 CON | 30.71 |
Con
Lose | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 10 PRO | 227.67 |
Con
Win | AlQaeda will attempt a major attack on US soil within a week of the US elections, in order to influence electoral outcome, as well as to grab headlines | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 2.81 | 1.55 | 10 CON | 15.52 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden is proven captured or killed before the November elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 5.39 | 1.23 | 10 CON | 12.28 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 50 CON | 65.94 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 50 CON | 54.36 |
Con
Win | PLO and PA Chairman Yassir Arafat dies. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 15.46 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.46 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.96 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 15 CON | 17.83 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 10 PRO | 10.28 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden killed or captured right in time for US elections. | US | 10/16/2004 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 50 PRO | 110.22 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 15 CON | 16.59 |
Pro
Lose | The X-Prize is won, an attempt to privately launch a shuttle twice within 14 days. | Sci/Tech | 10/4/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 50 CON | 167.12 |
Con
Lose | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 10 PRO | 301.53 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in Europe. | Europe | 10/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.36 | 50 PRO | 187.11 |
Con
Lose | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 50 PRO | 2,454.09 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.34 |
Con
Lose | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 10 PRO | 153.83 |
Con
Lose | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 10 PRO | 68.66 |
Con
Win | Bush campaign files lawsuit for collusion between Kerry campaign and MoveOn.org. | US | 9/15/2004 | 207.47 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.05 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 20 PRO | 25.88 |
Pro
Win | 300 people arrested during Republican National Convention. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.13 | 8.75 | 30 PRO | 33.87 |
Con
Win | Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualties | Terrorism | 9/3/2004 | 16.25 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.66 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 50 CON | 60.76 |
Con
Lose | oil closes above $50.00 | World | 9/1/2004 | 6.09 | 1.20 | 10 PRO | 60.87 |
Con
Lose | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 50 PRO | 89.61 |
Con
Win | President Bush will attend the Olympics in Greece. | US | 8/28/2004 | 19.31 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.55 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 25 CON | 28.17 |
Pro
Win | Major Chenchen attack in Russia | Russia | 8/1/2004 | 1.77 | 2.30 | 50 PRO | 88.43 |
Pro
Win | The Supreme Court Rules that detainees at Guantanamo have the right to appeal to the Federal courts | US | 8/1/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 25 PRO | 61.43 |
Con
Lose | Bob Graham will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 4.95 | 1.25 | 10 PRO | 49.50 |
Con
Lose | Hillary Clinton will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.44 | 1.23 | 10 PRO | 54.39 |
Pro
Win | John Edwards will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.52 | 2.93 | 10 PRO | 15.19 |
Con
Win | John McCain will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Evan Bayh will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 17.60 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.60 |
Con
Lose | Richard Gephardt will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 10 PRO | 24.38 |
Con
Win | Chuck Hagel will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 106.50 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.09 |
Con
Win | Tom Vilsack will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 10 CON | 15.31 |
Con
Win | Bill Richardson will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 16.84 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.63 |
Con
Win | Wesley Clark will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.47 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.24 |
Con
Win | 9/11 commission explicitly blames Bush | US | 7/23/2004 | 14.74 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.64 |
Con
Lose | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 7/14/2004 | 6.05 | 1.20 | 25 PRO | 151.33 |
Con
Lose | As a result of the Abu Ghraib scandal, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigns. | US | 6/30/2004 | 26.56 | 1.04 | 100 PRO | 2,656.00 |
Pro
Win | Oil price rises above $44 | US | 6/1/2004 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 25 PRO | 38.62 |
Con
Lose | Civil war erupts in Iraq. Shiites, Sunnites, Kurds attack Coalitian Forces and increasingly also each other. | Iraq | 6/1/2004 | 6.35 | 1.19 | 15 PRO | 95.31 |
Con
Win | Hillary announced as a Vice-Presidential running mate in 2004 election. | US | 6/1/2004 | 11.48 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 54.77 |
Con
Lose | Hamas stages a terror attack against Americans in revenge for their leaders being killed by the Israelis. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 25.08 | 1.04 | 50 PRO | 1,254.15 |
Con
Lose | Major Hamas attack against Israeli civilians, killing at least a hundred people. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 50 PRO | 727.50 |
Con
Lose | A definitive link is made between Al Quaeda and the ETA with regard to the bombings in Madrid | Terrorism | 4/9/2004 | 6.08 | 1.20 | 50 PRO | 303.94 |
