| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Civil unrest will cause the pullout of US forces from Qatar by 2008 | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 10 CON | 12.50 |
Con
Lose | Radical Islamists bent on exporting revolution attempt overthrow of government of major Arab country or countries. | Middle East | 12/15/2008 | 3.03 | 1.49 | 10 PRO | 30.27 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein regains dictatorial power in Iraq | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 300 CON | 309.80 |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 1 CON | 1.04 |
Con
Lose | Iran will test a nuclear weapon, either openly or without acknowledging it, before 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.70 | 1.59 | 5 PRO | 13.51 |
Con
Win | Syria and Iran invade Iraq and set up insurgent puppet regime.
| Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 82.07 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.12 |
Con
Win | Before all US troops have pulled out of Iraq, the country will collapse into civil war and effectively Balkanize. | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 10.42 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 110.62 |
Con
Lose | During the next presidential administration, bills will be introduced in the House and Senate that would allow non-natural-born US Citizens to run for President. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 5 PRO | 10.54 |
Con
Win | US Withdraws from Iraq, Which Quickly Degenerates into Civil War | Iraq | 1/18/2007 | 9.08 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.37 |
Con
Lose | Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.78 | 2.27 | 10 PRO | 17.84 |
Con
Win | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.07 |
Con
Win | Venezuela attacks Colombia | General | 12/30/2006 | 10.99 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.01 |
Con
Lose | US troop strength in Iraq falls below 115,000. | Iraq | 10/21/2006 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 100 PRO | 264.32 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Lose | Formal decision reached to relocate at least half of all American troops based in Western Europe to Eastern Europe or Middle East. | US | 3/12/2006 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 1 PRO | 4.33 |
Con
Win | Iran stops/restricts oil export and causes significant rise in crude oil prices. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 228.67 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.04 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.06 |
Con
Win | Michael Jackson will not be found guilty of child molestation by January 1, 2006. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.25 | 5.03 | 10 CON | 50.26 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.31 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.42 |
Con
Lose | U.S. invades Baathist Syria from Iraq. | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.44 | 1.29 | 1 PRO | 4.44 |
Con
Win | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 10 CON | 12.93 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 210 CON | 223.25 |
Con
Win | North Korea agrees to end its nuclear program and destroy all of its nuclear material. | World | 1/24/2006 | 8.60 | 1.13 | 1 CON | 1.13 |
Con
Win | Chicago Cubs win the World Series | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 91.51 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.11 |
Con
Lose | John Roberts will be confirmed by the Senate to replace the retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 11/10/2005 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 100 PRO | 200.33 |
Con
Win | American Invasion of Iran Officially Commences. Defined as the first embed entering Iran w/o Iranian govt. permission, because our SOF will have already been operating there for some time. | US | 11/10/2005 | 6.13 | 1.20 | 100 CON | 119.50 |
Con
Win | Insurgency in Iraq will increase causing British withdrawal and Tony Blair's resignation | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 104.82 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 10 CON | 12.34 |
Con
Lose | Self styled head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is captured or killed by coalition-led forces by 1st Sept. 2005.
| Iraq | 9/22/2005 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 10 PRO | 17.32 |
Pro
Win | Space Shuttle Discovery, currently on mission STS-114 MCC, will land safely in August. | Sci/Tech | 8/23/2005 | 1.00 | 217.10 | 500 PRO | 502.31 |
Con
Win | Israel occupies part of Lebanon | Middle East | 8/23/2005 | 70.85 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.43 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 10 CON | 13.55 |
Pro
Win | NASA will launch Space Shuttle Discovery by July 31st. | Sci/Tech | 8/10/2005 | 1.50 | 3.01 | 10 PRO | 14.98 |
Con
Win | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.76 |
Con
Win | Libya is found to have secretly hidden WMD from inspectors, despite its promises. | Terrorism | 8/10/2005 | 15.17 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.05 |
Con
Win | Osama bin Laden caught or killed | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 35.66 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.29 |
Con
Lose | NASA will launch Space Shuttle Discovery by July 4th. | Sci/Tech | 7/6/2005 | 1.47 | 3.12 | 10 PRO | 14.72 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 10 CON | 13.93 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.53 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.79 |
Con
Lose | France will approve the EU Constitution referendum that will be voted on 5/29. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.58 | 1.63 | 10 PRO | 25.82 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.86 |
Pro
Win | Labour party wins British general election | Europe | 5/11/2005 | 1.03 | 31.05 | 10 PRO | 10.33 |
Con
Lose | Another coup will occur in Venezuela against President Hugo Chavez within the next year. | World | 5/11/2005 | 6.68 | 1.18 | 50 PRO | 333.87 |
Pro
Win | The Vatican will have to appoint a new Pope. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.22 | 5.51 | 190 PRO | 232.11 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 500 CON | 506.00 |
Con
Lose | Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term. | US | 4/17/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 10 PRO | 29.56 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 10.99 |
Con
Win | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 12 CON | 12.11 |
Con
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be un-cancelled. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.81 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.36 |
Pro
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be cancelled. | Sports | 2/20/2005 | 1.05 | 20.28 | 10 PRO | 10.52 |
Pro
Win | New England Patriots win the Superbowl | Sports | 2/6/2005 | 1.11 | 10.18 | 1000 PRO | 1,108.93 |
Pro
Win | Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005 | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.08 | 12.86 | 1 PRO | 1.08 |
Con
Win | Leader of the main al-Qaeda cell in North America is caught and found to be an American (born) citizen. | Terrorism | 1/30/2005 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 10 CON | 12.88 |
Con
Win | US Cancels F-22 fighter. | US | 1/30/2005 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 30 CON | 35.07 |
Con
Win | Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich will use his military and police to violently suppress the Opposition protesters against his re-election. | General | 1/30/2005 | 9.24 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.21 |
Con
Win | Pittsburgh Steelers win Superbowl. | Sports | 1/23/2005 | 4.10 | 1.32 | 10 CON | 13.23 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 6.86 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.71 |
Pro
Win | The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) system will snub at least one undefeated team. | Sports | 1/4/2005 | 1.07 | 15.77 | 10 PRO | 10.68 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 10 PRO | 10.29 |
Con
Win | In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection. | US | 1/4/2005 | 6.56 | 1.18 | 10 CON | 11.80 |
Pro
Win | A Mid Major, either Boise State, Fresno State, Louisville or Utah will rise to #6 and receive a BCS bowl bid. | Sports | 1/4/2005 | 1.10 | 10.53 | 10 PRO | 11.05 |
Con
Win | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.74 |
Con
Lose | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 1 PRO | 13.21 |
Con
Lose | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 10 PRO | 41.47 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.29 |
Con
Lose | National elections in Iraq | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.76 | 1.57 | 1 PRO | 2.76 |
Con
Win | Breakaway republic from Indonesia | World | 1/4/2005 | 45.89 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.22 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 1 CON | 1.20 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.67 |
Con
Win | Terririst attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 20.08 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.52 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.54 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 1 CON | 1.12 |
Con
Win | Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq. | Terrorism | 12/30/2004 | 98.59 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Another hurricane (Category 1 or higher) will strike Florida this hurricane season. | US | 12/6/2004 | 44.04 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 102.32 |
Con
Win | Turkey will be accepted into the EU | World | 12/6/2004 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.08 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Pro
Win | National elections in Afghanistan. | World | 11/9/2004 | 1.33 | 4.01 | 10 PRO | 13.32 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.02 |
Con
Win | National League Team wins 2004 World Series. | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 5.16 | 1.24 | 10 CON | 12.41 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.47 |
Con
Win | Anaheim Angels win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.03 |
Con
Win | Los Angeles Dodgers win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 510.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.02 |
Pro
Lose | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 10 CON | 19.64 |
Con
Lose | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will drop to $47 or less per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 10 PRO | 47.83 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.45 | 1.29 | 10 CON | 12.90 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EST on Tuesday, November 9th, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.60 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.17 |
Con
Win | John Kerry elected President. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 100 CON | 163.74 |
Pro
Win | President Bush wins reelection. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 100 PRO | 134.03 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 18 CON | 22.50 |
Con
Lose | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 1 PRO | 1.56 |
Pro
Win | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 10 PRO | 11.11 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will reach $60 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | US | 11/3/2004 | 8.22 | 1.14 | 10 CON | 11.39 |
Con
Lose | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 10 PRO | 104.29 |
Con
Lose | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 1 PRO | 2.46 |
Con
Lose | AlQaeda will attempt a major attack on US soil within a week of the US elections, in order to influence electoral outcome, as well as to grab headlines | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 2.81 | 1.55 | 5 PRO | 14.05 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.89 |
Pro
Lose | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 10 CON | 14.53 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 1 PRO | 1.03 |
Con
Win | The Minnesota Twins win the 2004 American League Championship Series. | Sports | 10/18/2004 | 3.22 | 1.45 | 10 CON | 14.51 |
Con
Win | A Canadian Team Wins the X-Prize. | Sci/Tech | 10/6/2004 | 25.12 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.41 |
Pro
Win | The X-Prize is won, an attempt to privately launch a shuttle twice within 14 days. | Sci/Tech | 10/4/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 1 PRO | 1.43 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.63 | 1.04 | 1 CON | 1.04 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.70 |
