| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Lose | During the next presidential administration, bills will be introduced in the House and Senate that would allow non-natural-born US Citizens to run for President. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 100 PRO | 210.72 |
Con
Lose | Carlos Beltran will be signed by the New York Yankees before March 1, 2005. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 100 PRO | 500.10 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.15 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 111.86 |
Con
Win | If George Bush wins the election he will dramatically increase the military presence in Iraq in an effort to bring the war to a conclusion. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.80 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 107.81 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.19 |
Con
Lose | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 100 PRO | 414.68 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 102.91 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.60 |
Con
Lose | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 100 PRO | 234.55 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.54 |
Pro
Win | The Federal Reserve will raise the Fed Funds rate at the December 14 meeting. | US | 12/30/2004 | 1.08 | 14.14 | 100 PRO | 107.61 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.15 |
Con
Lose | If President Bush is re-elected, the United States will launch a major offensive to take control of Fallujah in December with combined US and Iraqi government forces | Iraq | 12/22/2004 | 1.46 | 3.17 | 100 PRO | 146.13 |
Con
Lose | Scott Peterson will NOT receive the death penalty for murdering his wife and unborn child. | US | 12/22/2004 | 9.34 | 1.12 | 50 PRO | 467.00 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 100 PRO | 101.38 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 109.35 |
Con
Lose | National League Team wins 2004 World Series. | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 5.16 | 1.24 | 100 PRO | 515.61 |
Con
Win | Anaheim Angels win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.30 |
Con
Win | Los Angeles Dodgers win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 510.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.20 |
Con
Lose | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 100 PRO | 437.06 |
Con
Lose | By 8pm EST on Tuesday, November 9th, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.60 | 1.22 | 100 PRO | 560.43 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 250 CON | 303.61 |
Con
Lose | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 200 PRO | 312.45 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 250 CON | 255.89 |
Con
Win | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 250 CON | 276.51 |
Con
Win | Hostage takers in Iraq will issue a demand to US voters that seek an electoral outcome, vis-a-vis the US Presidential Elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.11 | 1.32 | 100 CON | 132.15 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden is proven captured or killed before the November elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 5.39 | 1.23 | 100 CON | 122.80 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 108.71 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 100 CON | 127.58 |
Con
Lose | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 100 PRO | 629.70 |
Pro
Lose | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 100 CON | 145.34 |
Con
Win | The Minnesota Twins win the 2004 American League Championship Series. | Sports | 10/18/2004 | 3.22 | 1.45 | 100 CON | 145.13 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers finish above .500. | Sports | 10/1/2004 | 44.02 | 1.02 | 250 CON | 255.81 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 100 CON | 116.76 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 106.95 |
Con
Win | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 500 CON | 585.24 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 100 CON | 121.53 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack in Greece by outside (non-Greek) group(s) during the Olympic Games. | Terrorism | 8/30/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 250 CON | 489.36 |
Con
Lose | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 200 PRO | 358.46 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 225.37 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.44 | 1.23 | 100 CON | 122.53 |
Pro
Win | John Edwards will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.52 | 2.93 | 100 PRO | 151.94 |
Con
Win | John McCain will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Richard Gephardt will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 100 CON | 169.57 |
Con
Lose | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 7/14/2004 | 6.05 | 1.20 | 200 PRO | 1,210.67 |
Con
Win | Hillary announced as a Vice-Presidential running mate in 2004 election. | US | 6/1/2004 | 11.48 | 1.10 | 200 CON | 219.08 |
Con
Win | Civil war erupts in Iraq. Shiites, Sunnites, Kurds attack Coalitian Forces and increasingly also each other. | Iraq | 6/1/2004 | 6.35 | 1.19 | 100 CON | 118.68 |
Con
Win | Spain decides not to appear like they are intimidated by al Qaeda and keep their troops in Iraq. | Terrorism | 6/1/2004 | 6.38 | 1.19 | 40 CON | 47.44 |
Con
Win | US opens the strategic oil reserves to ease fuel prices. | US | 6/1/2004 | 7.68 | 1.15 | 100 CON | 114.97 |
Pro
Win | Oil price rises above $44 | US | 6/1/2004 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 100 PRO | 154.49 |
Con
Win | USA led troops attacks the city of Najaf in Iraq and kill or arrest Al-Sadr. | Iraq | 4/24/2004 | 61.00 | 1.02 | 450 CON | 457.50 |
Con
Win | Hamas stages a terror attack against Americans in revenge for their leaders being killed by the Israelis. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 25.08 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.15 |
Con
Lose | Major Hamas attack against Israeli civilians, killing at least a hundred people. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 10 PRO | 145.50 |
