| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | George W. Bush succeeded by his vice-president. | US | 1/20/2009 | 5.46 | 1.22 | 150 CON | 183.61 |
Con
Lose | Tom Delay is convicted of consipracy to violate Texas state campaign finance laws | US | 1/1/2009 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 50 PRO | 284.69 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney does not finish 2nd term. | US | 1/1/2009 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 100 CON | 125.85 |
Con
Lose | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 20 PRO | 77.82 |
Con
Win | The person elected President of the US in 2008 will be a resident of a state of the former Confederacy. | US | 11/3/2008 | 2.91 | 1.52 | 50 CON | 76.19 |
Con
Win | Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be the 2008 Republican presidential nominee. | US | 9/1/2008 | 7.81 | 1.15 | 50 CON | 57.35 |
Con
Win | Democrats will convince Senator Joe Lieberman they need him to be the Democratic presidential standard bearer for the 2008 presidential race. | US | 8/31/2008 | 25.59 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 26.02 |
Con
Win | China military in Cuba. Announce defense and trade (subsidy) pact. | China | 5/1/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 60 CON | 67.34 |
Con
Lose | Karl Rove will lose his White House job. | US | 2/3/2008 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 160 PRO | 351.89 |
Con
Win | NASA will retire a Space Shuttle Orbiter by the end of 2007. | Sci/Tech | 1/12/2008 | 6.04 | 1.20 | 20 CON | 23.97 |
Con
Win | Terrorists will strike on Canadian soil before January 1. 2008. | Terrorism | 1/8/2008 | 6.43 | 1.18 | 50 CON | 59.21 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein regains dictatorial power in Iraq | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.16 |
Con
Win | Iran will test a nuclear weapon, either openly or without acknowledging it, before 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.70 | 1.59 | 50 CON | 79.38 |
Con
Win | Iraq Reconciliation Deal Package - Saddam Leaves Iraq To Live In Exile | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 13.25 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.08 |
Con
Win | U.S. housing market decline - 2006 median home price lower than 2005 | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.94 | 1.52 | 10 CON | 15.16 |
Con
Lose | During the next presidential administration, bills will be introduced in the House and Senate that would allow non-natural-born US Citizens to run for President. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 10 PRO | 21.07 |
Con
Win | Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.78 | 2.27 | 145 CON | 329.87 |
Con
Win | 1st Terrorist Nuke Will Be Of Pakistani Origin -designed or built there, or uses Pakistani fissionables. Can be a "dirty" device if it uses a chain reaction, or be captured w/o going off. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 4.28 | 1.30 | 50 CON | 65.25 |
Con
Win | Prince Fielder and Russ Branyan become the first two teammates to hit 60 home runs in a season. | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 26.90 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.93 |
Con
Win | Demotcrats will loose at least one (1) net seat in the US Senate in the 2006 mid-term elections. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.03 | 1.97 | 800 CON | 1,577.05 |
Con
Win | Anbar province will declare its independence from Iraq. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 22.01 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 104.76 |
Con
Lose | Hamid Karzai will be overthrown in a coup or assassinated. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 10.94 | 1.10 | 10 PRO | 109.37 |
Con
Win | Wal-Mart Announces Plan To Open First Store In Iraq | Iraq | 7/14/2006 | 19.15 | 1.06 | 500 CON | 527.54 |
Con
Win | the US Congress will vote funding to study the reactivation of the USS Iowa BB61 and the USS Wisconsin BB64. | US | 6/1/2006 | 29.54 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 25.88 |
Con
Lose | Iran stops/restricts oil export and causes significant rise in crude oil prices. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 228.67 | 1.00 | 10 PRO | 2,286.67 |
Con
Win | Harriet Miers will be confirmed by the Senate to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.47 | 1.15 | 5 CON | 5.77 |
Con
Win | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 20 CON | 22.29 |
Pro
Lose | Karl Rove will NOT be indicted in the Valerie Plume affair. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.57 | 2.76 | 100 CON | 275.86 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorist attack the Vatican and/or Pope. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 16.26 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.28 |
Con
Win | Iran and Russia actually finalize and sign spent-fuel return and recycling protocol for Bushehr nuclear reactor. Russia actually completes delivery of fuel assemblies to reactor. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 5.89 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 60.22 |
Con
Lose | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 25 PRO | 622.52 |
Con
Win | North Korea and Iran will form an alliance and try to nuke Israel. | World | 1/24/2006 | 175.08 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Lose | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 200 PRO | 414.51 |
Con
Win | A Chinese taikonaut (astronaut) is lost in a fatal accident during a space mission. | China | 1/24/2006 | 6.71 | 1.18 | 135 CON | 158.64 |
Con
Win | Crude oil will be above $70 a barrel on Nov 1, 2005. | World | 11/10/2005 | 4.88 | 1.26 | 100 CON | 125.78 |
Con
Win | President George Bush's disapproval ratings on the war in Iraq will increase to at least 75%. | General | 11/10/2005 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.86 |
Con
Lose | The Iraqi constitution, when put to a vote in October, will be rejected by the voters of 3 or more provinces and not go into effect. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 8.43 | 1.13 | 200 PRO | 1,686.81 |
Pro
Win | Israel completes withdrawal from Gaza Strip, including removal of all settlements therein. | Middle East | 9/22/2005 | 1.27 | 4.64 | 50 PRO | 63.73 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 25 CON | 33.87 |
Con
Lose | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 20 PRO | 284.65 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Antonin Scalia to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 8/10/2005 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 110 CON | 189.67 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 88 CON | 96.12 |
Con
Win | US forces in Iraq decline to under 60,000. | Middle East | 6/10/2005 | 4.72 | 1.27 | 300 CON | 380.56 |
Con
Win | A medical researcher will be assasinated by an animal rights activist. | Terrorism | 5/31/2005 | 24.89 | 1.04 | 225 CON | 234.42 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will be from Portugal, Spain or a western European country south of the Alps. | General | 4/19/2005 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 25 CON | 33.14 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will be from a country of the former East Block(inc. old Soviet Union). | General | 4/19/2005 | 13.47 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.40 |
Pro
Lose | The Montreal Expos do NOT move to Washington D.C. in 2005. | Sports | 4/17/2005 | 6.99 | 1.17 | 40 CON | 46.67 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 40 CON | 43.96 |
Con
Win | Carlos Beltran will be signed by the New York Yankees before March 1, 2005. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 90 CON | 112.49 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 8.10 | 1.14 | 116 CON | 132.33 |
Con
Win | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 142 CON | 152.58 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 20 CON | 21.64 |
Con
Win | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 200 CON | 263.56 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 10 CON | 15.11 |
Con
Win | UN imposes trade sanctions on Iran for failure to cooperate with IAE Comission. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 6.89 | 1.17 | 20 CON | 23.40 |
Pro
Lose | The Federal Reserve will raise the Fed Funds rate at the December 14 meeting. | US | 12/30/2004 | 1.08 | 14.14 | 25 CON | 353.38 |
Con
Lose | National League Team wins 2004 World Series. | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 5.16 | 1.24 | 200 PRO | 1,031.22 |
Con
Win | Taiwan acquires the Ticonderoga-class CGs the U.S. Navy is retiring. | China | 11/3/2004 | 5.02 | 1.25 | 10 CON | 12.49 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 25 PRO | 28.86 |
Pro
Win | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 100 PRO | 203.75 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will drop to $47 or less per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 350 CON | 442.52 |
Pro
Win | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 25 PRO | 27.36 |
Con
Win | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 275 CON | 356.59 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 26.92 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 20 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 4 CON | 4.18 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden is proven captured or killed before the November elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 5.39 | 1.23 | 50 PRO | 269.27 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 66 CON | 68.58 |
Pro
Lose | The X-Prize is won, an attempt to privately launch a shuttle twice within 14 days. | Sci/Tech | 10/4/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 100 CON | 334.25 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers finish above .500. | Sports | 10/1/2004 | 44.02 | 1.02 | 260 CON | 266.04 |
