| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Lose | Ahmedinajad gets removed from his position in Iran, either voluntarily (he is forced from the position, but lives) or involuntarily (he is assasinated). | Middle East | 4/15/2013 | 7.40 | 1.16 | 100 PRO | 740.00 |
Con
Win | Iran exerts dominance over Iraq, before end of Obama 1st term. | Iraq | 1/26/2013 | 8.76 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 225.78 |
Con
Win | Man made global warming disaster prophets will reverse direction in the face of record cold. Afterwards, they will warn that "greenhouse gases" cause ice ages. | General | 1/1/2013 | 4.11 | 1.32 | 100 CON | 132.14 |
Con
Lose | By 2012, Moslem scholars will publish evidence that Jesus did not die on the cross. | World | 1/1/2013 | 3.06 | 1.49 | 50 PRO | 152.88 |
Con
Win | A Monthly Average Of US Dollar Inflation Will Exceed A 16% Annualized Rate For Some Month Before Years End 2012. | US | 1/1/2013 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 200 CON | 321.73 |
Con
Lose | The Assad regime falls. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 46.45 | 1.02 | 10 PRO | 464.55 |
Con
Win | Gold will fall below $1400 per oz by 12/31/12 | Europe | 1/1/2013 | 63.20 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 203.22 |
Con
Win | Chen Guangcheng becomes the figurehead for domestic unrest in China, causing massive economic damage by the end of the year.
| China | 1/1/2013 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Pro
Win | End of World fails to materialize | World | 12/21/2012 | 1.11 | 9.98 | 10 PRO | 11.11 |
Con
Win | National health Plan causes quality of care to severely drop in the US | US | 12/13/2012 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 200 CON | 272.73 |
Pro
Win | Obama re-elected | US | 11/8/2012 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 100 PRO | 214.04 |
Con
Win | Republicans gain control of the Senate in the 2012 election. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.31 | 4.27 | 100 CON | 427.27 |
Con
Win | Obama will be a one term president. | US | 11/8/2012 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 200 CON | 452.49 |
Con
Lose | Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2012 election. | US | 11/8/2012 | 7.63 | 1.15 | 50 PRO | 381.63 |
Con
Win | Karzai is assassinated in coop. A tacit US complicity come to light after the fact. | Middle East | 11/8/2012 | 8.92 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.62 |
Con
Lose | The US presidential election ends in an electoral vote tie of 269-269 (its actually mathematically possible). | US | 11/8/2012 | 6.50 | 1.18 | 10 PRO | 65.00 |
Con
Lose | Iran announces that it has detonated an underground nuclear device. | Middle East | 11/4/2012 | 6.77 | 1.17 | 50 PRO | 338.41 |
Pro
Win | GM will still be owned by the Federal Government at the end of the Obama Presidency | US | 11/4/2012 | 1.59 | 2.69 | 100 PRO | 159.21 |
Con
Win | Obama dumps Biden, and chooses someone else as his VP running mate in the 2012 election. | US | 9/30/2012 | 2.31 | 1.77 | 100 CON | 176.60 |
Con
Win | Detroit files for bankruptcy. | US | 6/30/2012 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 10 CON | 18.18 |
Con
Win | North Korea has another nuclear test. | China | 6/30/2012 | 51.00 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 51.00 |
Con
Win | Greece leaves the Euro, and goes back to the drachma. | Europe | 6/30/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Lose | The Supreme Court severs and overturns the mandate, but keeps the rest of the legislation known as "Obamacare" intact. | US | 6/28/2012 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 100 PRO | 1,027.27 |
Con
Win | The Supreme Court overturns "Obamacare" in its entirety. | US | 6/28/2012 | 1.22 | 5.45 | 100 CON | 545.00 |
Pro
Win | Scott Walker wins the recall election as Wisconsins Governor. | US | 6/6/2012 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 PRO | 100.00 |
Con
Win | Khalid Sheik Mohammed does not stand trial or go before a military tribunal during the remainder of Obamas presidency. | US | 1/25/2012 | 1.17 | 6.95 | 50 CON | 347.33 |
Con
Win | Shots fired near President Obama. | US | 1/20/2012 | 2.54 | 1.65 | 100 CON | 164.79 |
Con
Lose | The Kim family gets deposed, and is replaced by a military junta. | China | 1/1/2012 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 50 PRO | 368.00 |
Con
Win | The founder of wikileaks, Julian Assange, gets assassinated. | General | 1/1/2012 | 5.11 | 1.24 | 150 CON | 186.53 |
Con
Lose | The price of gold will hit or exceed $2,000 an ounce. | General | 12/30/2011 | 1.94 | 2.06 | 100 PRO | 194.03 |
Con
Win | The Jordanian government collapses. The Royal family flees the country. | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 12.55 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 108.66 |
Con
Lose | Afghan campaign will dramatically improve for ISAF once herion trade disrupted significantly | Middle East | 9/1/2011 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 100 PRO | 211.30 |
Pro
Lose | Ghaddafi gets overthrown in Libya. | Middle East | 8/22/2011 | 1.27 | 4.65 | 100 CON | 464.58 |
Con
Win | The next terror attack in the US after Times Square will be initially blamed on either "right wingers" or tea partiers, by a mayor or higher level politician, long before the facts become clear. | Terrorism | 5/11/2011 | 109.40 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.09 |
Con
Win | The UN Commission formally accuses HizbAllah of the assasination of Rafik Hariri. | Middle East | 3/31/2011 | 27.52 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.89 |
Pro
Lose | Gas prices hit $5.00 a gallon by Labor Day. | US | 3/5/2011 | 4.29 | 1.30 | 100 CON | 130.43 |
Con
Win | Unemployment in the US will officially hit 20% or greater at least once in 2010. | US | 12/31/2010 | 5.50 | 1.22 | 400 CON | 488.89 |
Pro
Lose | US casuaties in Afghanistan in 2010 will increase more than 50% from 2009 casualties | US | 12/13/2010 | 12.00 | 1.09 | 30 CON | 32.73 |
Con
Win | Nancy Pelosi loses her 2010 re-election bid. | US | 11/3/2010 | 2.07 | 1.94 | 50 CON | 96.77 |
Pro
Lose | Republicans gain at least 4 seats in the Senate in the 2010 mid-term elections. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.27 | 4.70 | 200 CON | 940.44 |
Pro
Lose | Republicans gain at least 30 seats in the House in the 2010 mid-term elections | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.82 | 2.23 | 300 CON | 667.61 |
Con
Lose | Nancy Pelosi will be the Speaker of the House for the 112th Congress. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 50 PRO | 54.71 |
Pro
Lose | Roland Burris will not run for re-election. A republican wins his seat in 2010. | US | 11/3/2010 | 66.00 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 50.77 |
Con
Win | Republicans hold at least 50 seats in the Senate after the 2010 mid-terms. | US | 11/3/2010 | 18.62 | 1.06 | 150 CON | 158.51 |
Pro
Lose | The Republicans take back the House of Representatives in the 2010 mid-terms. | US | 11/3/2010 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 300 CON | 580.49 |
Con
Win | Harry Reid loses his re-election bid in 2010. | US | 11/3/2010 | 1.65 | 2.55 | 100 CON | 255.00 |
Con
Lose | Roland Burris will not run for re-election. Another Democrate wins his seat in 2010. | US | 8/4/2010 | 1.31 | 4.19 | 100 PRO | 131.34 |
Con
Lose | The Dow Jones Industrials will still be above 10,000 by June 30, 2010. | US | 6/30/2010 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 200 PRO | 409.70 |
Con
Win | Rahm Emmanuel resigns or gets fired as White House Chief of Staff. | US | 6/30/2010 | 18.14 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.92 |
Con
Win | One or more UK government ministers will invoke the Civil Contingencies Act on or before Thursday 3 June 2010
| Europe | 6/3/2010 | 11.71 | 1.09 | 150 CON | 164.01 |
Con
Win | A Republican wins the special election for Murthas seat in Pennsylvania. | US | 5/19/2010 | 1.67 | 2.50 | 200 CON | 500.00 |
Con
Win | War Between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon. | Middle East | 3/1/2010 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 100 CON | 116.89 |
Con
Win | Iran will have a nuclear weapon that it can launch against Israel by the end of 2010
| Middle East | 2/2/2010 | 18.25 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 105.80 |
Con
Lose | Arlen Specter will be re-elected to the Senate in 2010. | US | 1/6/2010 | 6.03 | 1.20 | 100 PRO | 603.20 |
Con
Win | The NY Times files for bankruptcy under either chapter 11 or chapter 7. | US | 1/2/2010 | 2.24 | 1.81 | 200 CON | 361.29 |
Con
Win | As a result of the financial crisis, Russia loses it internally, and descends into civil disorder. | Russia | 1/2/2010 | 7.16 | 1.16 | 100 CON | 116.24 |
Con
Win | Nancy Pelosi is no longer Speaker of the House. | US | 1/2/2010 | 4.57 | 1.28 | 140 CON | 179.22 |
Con
Win | The Dow closes above 11,000. | US | 1/1/2010 | 6.43 | 1.18 | 100 CON | 118.42 |
Con
Win | By the end of 2009, the Large Hadron Collider will have failed to detect neutralinos, gravitons, or the Higgs Boson | Sci/Tech | 1/1/2010 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 100 CON | 439.70 |
Con
Win | Initiated in South America: An alliance modeled on the EU, opposed to capitalist free market policies and adversarial to the US. | General | 1/1/2010 | 9.71 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 111.48 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon (A-bomb or H-bomb) will be used in anger somwhere in the world before midnight Dec. 31 2009. Dirty bombs don't count. | World | 1/1/2010 | 8.75 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.90 |
Con
Win | Before the end of the year, one or more UK government ministers will invoke the Civil Contingencies Act. (Ends Dec 31 2009)
| Europe | 1/1/2010 | 8.82 | 1.13 | 150 CON | 169.19 |
Con
Win | President elect Obama will propose some kind of permanent floating or fixed tax on fuel to keep gas above $2.25 a gallon to help and promote research into alternative fuels and transportation. | US | 1/1/2010 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 20 CON | 51.43 |
Pro
Lose | Price of Gold goes above $1200/ troy ounce | General | 12/1/2009 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 100 CON | 174.12 |
Con
Lose | Kim Jong Un is designated the heir apparent, and Kim Jong Il moves out of the seat of power. The transfer of power proceeds smoothly, and without any internal strife or external pressure. | China | 10/21/2009 | 11.08 | 1.10 | 100 PRO | 1,107.91 |
Pro
Win | The swine flu pandemic kills more than 2,500 people. | World | 8/28/2009 | 2.48 | 1.68 | 20 PRO | 49.60 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies. | General | 6/30/2009 | 5.21 | 1.24 | 100 CON | 123.73 |
Con
Win | After six months, President Obama still will not have filled his Cabinet (Dept Secretaries, NSA, WH CoS). | US | 6/21/2009 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 350 CON | 657.43 |
Con
Win | A major terrorist attack on US soil within 180 days of Obama Inauguration | Terrorism | 6/20/2009 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 100 CON | 166.67 |
Con
Win | Prior to Iranian election, low-budget Straight of Hormuz incident created by Iranian RG elements to prop oil prices, help Ahmadinejads poll #s. | Middle East | 6/9/2009 | 6.40 | 1.19 | 100 CON | 118.54 |
Con
Win | Obama appoints Deval Patrick to the Supreme Court replacing Souter. | US | 5/26/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | President Obama normalizes relations with Cuba. | US | 5/2/2009 | 4.27 | 1.31 | 100 CON | 130.57 |
Con
Win | Russia places nuclear tipped missiles in Kaliningrad. The next presidents first crisis will be a move against NATO. | US | 3/21/2009 | 6.48 | 1.18 | 100 CON | 118.24 |
Pro
Lose | The next presidents first crisis will be the flight of investment capital in reaction to an anticipated explosion in taxes and regulation. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.44 | 3.29 | 100 CON | 329.03 |
Con
Win | The United States or Israel will destroy Iran''s nuclear facilities before 2/1/09 driving oil on the spot market over $200. a barrel. | Middle East | 2/1/2009 | 20.75 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.06 |
Con
Win | Caroline Kennedy will be appointed to replace Hillary Clinton as senator for New York | US | 1/23/2009 | 1.40 | 3.53 | 100 CON | 352.86 |
Con
Win | USA or Israel will bomb Iran's Nukes | Iraq | 1/1/2009 | 1.85 | 2.17 | 200 CON | 434.40 |
Con
Win | In about 2 years Chavez will begin border skirmishes with one of Venezuela's neighbours (Guyana, Colombia or Brazil) as a way of exercising his "bolivarian forces". | World | 1/1/2009 | 2.29 | 1.77 | 600 CON | 1,064.35 |
Con
Lose | Cuba's offshore oil fields will prove to be a lot larger than previously thought. Putting it in the worlds top ten reserves. | World | 1/1/2009 | 4.42 | 1.29 | 100 PRO | 441.76 |
Con
Lose | Democrats increase their number of seats in the US Senate by 3. | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.29 | 4.50 | 150 PRO | 192.83 |
Pro
Win | Obama is elected President of the United States | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.66 | 2.50 | 100 PRO | 166.47 |
Con
Lose | Bobby Jindal will be the Republican VP nominee. | US | 9/5/2008 | 2.36 | 1.73 | 50 PRO | 118.18 |
