| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Terrorists will kill more than 20,000 American civilians by April 2013. | Terrorism | 4/15/2013 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 550 CON | 695.50 |
Con
Win | Nuclear device detonated in an American population center. | US | 1/26/2013 | 27.03 | 1.04 | 101 CON | 104.88 |
Pro
Win | Regardless of who wins the 2008 elections, there will be no US ratified re-negotiation of NAFTA for that president''s term in office. | General | 1/26/2013 | 1.01 | 88.73 | 20 PRO | 20.23 |
Con
Win | Iran exerts dominance over Iraq, before end of Obama 1st term. | Iraq | 1/26/2013 | 8.76 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.29 |
Con
Win | Worst gasoline shortages since WWII with prompt calls in Congress to nationalize oil companies. | US | 1/1/2013 | 4.84 | 1.26 | 74 CON | 93.26 |
Con
Win | US will remove its military from Afghanistan under pressure from the Afghan government. | Middle East | 1/1/2013 | 64.18 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.58 |
Con
Win | President Obama sells Alaska to settle debt and to pay for ambitious social programs. | US | 1/1/2013 | 824.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.03 |
Con
Win | Obama gets impeached.. | US | 6/30/2011 | 9.29 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.06 |
Con
Win | usa will intercept a stray nuclear missle and bush will become a national hero despite his declining support as president.because of him we will soon be able to defend ourselves from a nuclear strike. | Terrorism | 1/1/2011 | 22.59 | 1.05 | 89 CON | 93.12 |
Con
Win | War between the North and the South on the Korean peninsula. Chinese intervene to restore peace and unite the Koreas under their security umbrella. | China | 1/1/2011 | 1,474.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.07 |
Con
Win | The head of Pakistan, Musharref will be assassinated by Islamic Fundamentalists. | China | 12/31/2010 | 4.04 | 1.33 | 100 CON | 132.94 |
Con
Win | USAF and NASA jointly develop the first ever Fighter jet working on non-gasoline fuels. | US | 12/31/2010 | 3.12 | 1.47 | 10 CON | 14.72 |
Pro
Lose | Sino-Japanese Asian Defense Sphere Incident | China | 9/24/2010 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 100 CON | 172.16 |
Con
Win | One or more civilians will be shot dead by uniformed officers (police/military) of an EU state other than the UK while participating in protests or demonstrations within the UK.
| Europe | 9/22/2010 | 26.80 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.55 |
Con
Win | North Korea implodes, and there is civil disorder. The Kim family is deposed, and the North is administered by the either the UN, the PRC, or an Asian coalition. | China | 6/30/2010 | 1,937.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.05 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il dies. | China | 6/30/2010 | 10.24 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 110.82 |
Con
Win | North Korea will invade South Korea in order to focus the peoples attention on something other than their current problems such as hunger and as a last ditch effort for KIM to hold on to power | China | 5/1/2010 | 10.82 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.18 |
Con
Win | A Mumbai style attack targeting US citizens occurs or is attempted. | Terrorism | 3/1/2010 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 100 CON | 150.91 |
Con
Win | War Between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon. | Middle East | 3/1/2010 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 100 CON | 116.89 |
Con
Win | Iran will have a nuclear weapon that it can launch against Israel by the end of 2010
| Middle East | 2/2/2010 | 18.25 | 1.06 | 180 CON | 190.44 |
Con
Win | The next US President will launch an investigation of the 43rd presidents handling of the war in Iraq within 1 year of being sworn in. | US | 1/21/2010 | 8.46 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.70 |
Con
Win | The Syrian government is unable to maintain control over the various factions. There is a revolt, and the ruling Assad family gets overthrown. | Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 26.40 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.94 |
Con
Win | China is unable to maintain its rate of economic growth, and slides into recession. This causes massive riots, and a state of civil disorder that results in another "Tianamen Square" massacre. | China | 1/2/2010 | 5.13 | 1.24 | 100 CON | 124.22 |
Con
Win | Formation of a Arab Gulf Treaty Organization. Any two or more of the following Iraq, Kuwate, Barain, Qutar, UAE treaty with the United States to suport each others defence. Formal name may varie. | Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 17.00 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 53.13 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2009.
| Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 3.68 | 1.37 | 100 CON | 137.35 |
Con
Win | The Iranian government is unable to maintin control, and the people revoly and overthrow the mullahs. | Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 11.09 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.91 |
Con
Win | As a result of the financial crisis, Russia loses it internally, and descends into civil disorder. | Russia | 1/2/2010 | 7.16 | 1.16 | 50 CON | 58.12 |
Con
Win | War Between Israel and Iran. | Middle East | 1/2/2010 | 15.90 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 106.71 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State. | US | 1/2/2010 | 63.10 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.61 |
Con
Lose | Gordon Brown is no longer Prime Minister. A Tory becomes the new English PM. | Europe | 1/2/2010 | 2.78 | 1.56 | 100 PRO | 277.78 |
Con
Win | The Dow closes above 11,000. | US | 1/1/2010 | 6.43 | 1.18 | 100 CON | 118.42 |
Con
Lose | By the end of 2009, the Large Hadron Collider will have failed to detect neutralinos, gravitons, or the Higgs Boson | Sci/Tech | 1/1/2010 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 100 PRO | 129.44 |
Con
Win | The US will threaten to take Cuba to the UN security council, and start a propaganda campaign calling for war against Cuba, before 2010. | US | 1/1/2010 | 25.25 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.82 |
Con
Win | Initiated in South America: An alliance modeled on the EU, opposed to capitalist free market policies and adversarial to the US. | General | 1/1/2010 | 9.71 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 111.48 |
Con
Win | Before the end of the year, one or more UK government ministers will invoke the Civil Contingencies Act. (Ends Dec 31 2009)
| Europe | 1/1/2010 | 8.82 | 1.13 | 100 CON | 112.79 |
Con
Win | In the US, the draft will be re-instated before the end of 2009 | US | 1/1/2010 | 46.83 | 1.02 | 1 CON | 1.02 |
Con
Win | Obama administration DoJ indicts Bush administration Cabinet-level official for involvement in torture of GWOT detainees. | China | 1/1/2010 | 100.00 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.01 |
Pro
Lose | Price of Gold goes above $1200/ troy ounce | General | 12/1/2009 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 100 CON | 174.12 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il dies. | China | 12/1/2009 | 59.28 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.72 |
Pro
Win | Spot price of gold will exceed $1100.00 per ounce. | General | 11/6/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 200 PRO | 200.00 |
Con
Win | Sino-US Flare-up | China | 10/30/2009 | 17.13 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.20 |
Con
Win | Before the end of summer, at least one civilian will be killed by uniformed officers not displaying police or military insignia while participating in protests or demonstrations within the UK.
| Europe | 9/22/2009 | 597.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.17 |
Con
Win | Before the end of the summer, one or more civilians will be shot dead by soldiers of the British Army while participating in protests or demonstrations within the United Kingdom.
| Europe | 9/22/2009 | 10.26 | 1.11 | 100 CON | 110.80 |
Con
Win | Israeli-Iranian Conflict | Middle East | 9/12/2009 | 10.85 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.16 |
Con
Win | $4.00/gal or above gas prices in US by labor day, 2009. | US | 9/3/2009 | 176.60 | 1.01 | 1 CON | 1.01 |
Con
Win | Korea loses it internally, and a civil war breaks out to determine who controls the country. | China | 9/1/2009 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 100 CON | 128.53 |
Con
Win | Before the end of the summer, one or more civilians will be shot dead by police officers while participating in protests or demonstrations within the United Kingdom.
| China | 8/23/2009 | 14.40 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.46 |
Con
Win | The US suffers a major terrorist event. The new Pres Civilian D Force gains sweeping powers. State of Emergency declared. Fed rules by issuing executive orders, creating a state sponsored autocracy. | US | 8/3/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | Obama visits Gaza. | US | 7/20/2009 | 439.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il will be replaced by a Pro- Chinese "North Korean" Government | China | 7/1/2009 | 28.16 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.68 |
Con
Win | A free floating anti-ship navel mine is encountered in waters off Somalia. The mine may be improvised. | Terrorism | 6/30/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | After six months, President Obama still will not have filled his Cabinet (Dept Secretaries, NSA, WH CoS). | US | 6/21/2009 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 100 CON | 187.84 |
Con
Win | Prior to Iranian election, low-budget Straight of Hormuz incident created by Iranian RG elements to prop oil prices, help Ahmadinejads poll #s. | Middle East | 6/9/2009 | 6.40 | 1.19 | 150 CON | 177.80 |
Con
Win | President Obama normalizes relations with Cuba. | US | 5/2/2009 | 4.27 | 1.31 | 150 CON | 195.86 |
Con
Win | A nuclear attack will be carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran against the State of Israel. | Terrorism | 4/1/2009 | 31.36 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.65 |
Con
Win | US will attack area under the soverign control of Pakistan, in an attempt to flush out Al-Qeadas bases and to hopefully find Osama Bin Laden by the end of January 2009. | US | 3/31/2009 | 49.50 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.52 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be an invasion of Taiwan by China. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a conflict between North and South Korea. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a Russian incursion into Ukraine. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | Russia places nuclear tipped missiles in Kaliningrad. The next presidents first crisis will be a move against NATO. | US | 3/21/2009 | 6.48 | 1.18 | 25 CON | 29.56 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a border clash between The Peoples Republic of China and North Korea. | US | 3/21/2009 | 5.52 | 1.22 | 25 CON | 30.53 |
Con
Win | Thye next presidents first crisis will be a war between Iran and Israel. | US | 3/21/2009 | 9.26 | 1.12 | 25 CON | 28.03 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a Russian incursion into a former Soviet Union State other than Georgia or Ukraine. | US | 3/21/2009 | 12.04 | 1.09 | 25 CON | 27.26 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a Russian incursion back into Georgia. | US | 3/21/2009 | 8.50 | 1.13 | 25 CON | 28.33 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a border clash in Afghanistan with Pakistani troops. | US | 3/21/2009 | 14.42 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.86 |
Con
Win | The next presidents first crisis will be a war between India and Pakistan as a result of the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. | US | 3/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Pro
Win | Iran will not use nukes on Israel. | Middle East | 3/20/2009 | 1.23 | 5.36 | 100 PRO | 122.92 |
Con
Win | One of the Big three automakers will cease to exist. | US | 3/1/2009 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 100 CON | 116.37 |
Con
Win | The United States or Israel will destroy Iran''s nuclear facilities before 2/1/09 driving oil on the spot market over $200. a barrel. | Middle East | 2/1/2009 | 20.75 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 105.06 |
Con
Win | Cuba's offshore oil fields will prove to be a lot larger than previously thought. Putting it in the worlds top ten reserves. | World | 1/1/2009 | 4.42 | 1.29 | 20 CON | 25.85 |
Con
Win | Arab nations will initiate mutual discussion on the subject of the eventual formation of an Arab federal union(perhaps AU). | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 5.80 | 1.21 | 50 CON | 60.43 |
Con
Win | Iran will launch a nuclear attack against Israel | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 52.09 |
Con
Win | The Chinese Navy will lose a warship or submarine due to a major accident by 12/31/2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 10.57 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.45 |
Pro
Win | Rafale fighter will have secured no foreign purchase contract(s) prior 01-Jan-2008 | Europe | 1/1/2009 | 1.20 | 5.92 | 166 PRO | 199.77 |
Con
Win | China will have a fixed-wing aircraft carrier operational by the end of 2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 206.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.49 |
Con
Win | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2008. | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 8.37 | 1.14 | 50 CON | 56.79 |
Con
Win | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 100 CON | 134.59 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will vote to re-instate a military draft before the 2008 elections | US | 11/5/2008 | 35.46 | 1.03 | 20 CON | 20.58 |
Con
Win | Iran will attack Iraq, during the same time as America is drawing down troops from Iraq. | Middle East | 10/31/2008 | 64.69 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.57 |
Con
Win | The city of Atlanta, Georgia will run out of drinking water in 2008 | US | 10/31/2008 | 103.50 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.49 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 77.83 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.13 |
Con
Win | Baharain King His Majesty Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be attacked and badly hurt in veciuos attack, forcing him to move into exille. | Middle East | 8/31/2008 | 27.37 | 1.04 | 38 CON | 39.44 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.85 |
Con
Win | The City of Detroit, Michigan will file for bankruptcy. | US | 7/31/2008 | 3.66 | 1.38 | 277 CON | 381.24 |
Con
Win | There will be another major terrorist attack successfully carried out in the United States. | Terrorism | 7/1/2008 | 10.00 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.56 |
Con
Win | Iranian backed Shiites take over Iraq | Iraq | 6/30/2008 | 13.92 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 107.74 |
Con
Win | Israel will declare its intention to withdraw from, at least, 80% of territories it occupied in 1967 six day war. | Middle East | 6/5/2008 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 100 CON | 134.07 |
Con
Win | China military in Cuba. Announce defense and trade (subsidy) pact. | China | 5/1/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 250 CON | 280.59 |
Con
Win | Simba Makoni, ex-Zimbabwean Finance minister, will be assassinated before the General Elections in March | World | 3/30/2008 | 62.10 | 1.02 | 200 CON | 203.27 |
Pro
Win | City of Vallejo CA. will avoid filing bankruptcy. | US | 3/15/2008 | 1.01 | 86.80 | 24 PRO | 24.28 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will have firm orders for at least 650 787 Dreamliners (all models) before the delivery of the first aircraft in May 2008. | Sci/Tech | 3/8/2008 | 1.01 | 79.00 | 100 PRO | 101.28 |
Con
Win | Gen. John Abizaid Announces Intent To Retire and Run For Democratic Pres. Nomination | US | 1/24/2008 | 479.00 | 1.00 | 36 CON | 36.08 |
Con
Win | Legal challenge to use of Airbus A380 in US. | Sci/Tech | 1/13/2008 | 2.56 | 1.64 | 50 CON | 82.10 |
Con
Win | An Al Qaeda operation will be found to be operating out of Haiti. | Terrorism | 1/11/2008 | 6.78 | 1.17 | 100 CON | 117.30 |
Pro
Win | The number of US military personel killed in the Middle East will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | Middle East | 1/11/2008 | 1.53 | 2.87 | 200 PRO | 306.68 |
Pro
Win | U.S. housing market decline - 2007 median home price lower than 2006 | US | 1/11/2008 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 150 PRO | 253.43 |
Con
Win | Ron Paul stuns Republican opponents by winning New Hampshire Primary | General | 1/11/2008 | 13.65 | 1.08 | 90 CON | 97.12 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will sell at least 60 B787 aircraft [firm orders only] between 1/1/2007 and 12/31/2007. | General | 1/11/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 290 PRO | 290.00 |
Pro
Win | The number of Western military personel killed in the Afghanistan will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | China | 1/11/2008 | 1.54 | 2.85 | 200 PRO | 308.24 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe or his followers publicly state that they have killed a catholic priest or other member of a catholic religious order. | World | 1/8/2008 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 90 CON | 90.27 |
Pro
Win | Windows Vista DRM will be hacked, raising concerns about the security of the Vista Operating System | Sci/Tech | 1/8/2008 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 90 PRO | 147.42 |
Con
Lose | Not a single mile of federally financed hard-fence (not virtual) will be built on the Mexican border in 2007. | US | 1/8/2008 | 1.26 | 4.87 | 12 PRO | 15.10 |
Pro
Lose | Iran’s nuke program is never attacked; Iran builds a bomb in-secret | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.06 | 1.94 | 100 CON | 194.21 |
Con
Win | Any military aircraft of any nation shot down deliberately in air-to-air combat by any other nation. | World | 1/8/2008 | 14.41 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.45 |
Con
Win | Cuba Will Become a Satellite of a Major Power Which Is Not the US | General | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.63 |
Con
Win | Iraq assumes responsibility for its own security. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 13.40 | 1.08 | 58 CON | 62.68 |
Con
Win | Iran will use a nuclear weapon against Israel within the next year. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 1,471.50 | 1.00 | 220 CON | 220.15 |
Con
Win | Civil war in Lebanon (triggered by the Israeli attack) will continue until 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 100 CON | 131.83 |
Con
Win | A passenger aircraft flying out of an American airport will be hijacked. | Terrorism | 1/8/2008 | 21.95 | 1.05 | 5 CON | 5.24 |
Con
Win | America will succeed in creating a stable democratic Iraq. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 4.46 | 1.29 | 100 CON | 128.92 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein regains dictatorial power in Iraq | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.16 |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.44 |
Con
Lose | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2007 hurricane season. | US | 12/4/2007 | 2.60 | 1.63 | 60 PRO | 155.78 |
Con
Win | The United States will deploy American soldiers to the Darfur region of Sudan, as part of a UN approved peacekeeping force. | World | 12/4/2007 | 130.35 | 1.01 | 65 CON | 65.50 |
Con
Win | Democrats In Congress Propose Federally Mandated Licensing Of the Possession Of All Handguns Together With Mandated Fees. | US | 11/29/2007 | 9.49 | 1.12 | 40 CON | 44.71 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Select A Successor And Replace Cheney With That Successor. | US | 11/29/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Conduct a White House Makeover. Conservatives Purged. Cheney And At Least Rice Will Be Gone To Purchase Peace With Democrats. | US | 11/29/2007 | 61.82 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.33 |
Con
Win | Al Jazeera station in Doha will be bombed flat. | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 282.75 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.35 |
Con
Win | Weapons of mass destruction ie. Chemical bio.
or atomic will be found by end of 2007 in Iraq.
however the Government will try to suppress this Info under NATIONAL SECURITIES ACT. | Iraq | 11/29/2007 | 101.00 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.50 |
Con
Win | The United States conducts avowed military operations against Iran. | General | 11/29/2007 | 250.35 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.40 |
Con
Win | Israel and Syria will go to war by the end of the summer | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 33.76 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.05 |
Con
Win | Turkish F16 will be shot down by Greek Air Force. | Europe | 11/29/2007 | 17.14 | 1.06 | 500 CON | 530.98 |
Con
Win | Terrorists Blow Up Euro Disney. Kill hundreds of children. Muslim Group claims responsibility. France makes massive political shift towards America and Europe on War in Middle East | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 256.00 | 1.00 | 30 CON | 30.12 |
Con
Win | Pope Benedict XVI will die before March 1, 2007 | World | 8/6/2007 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.64 |
Con
Win | India will attack millitant outfits in pakistan occupied kashmir, thereby beginning the World War 3 by 01-03-07 | Terrorism | 8/6/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Sectarian clashes in Lebanon end in civil war. Syria enters the country and install an Iran-backed military occupation. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 334.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.06 |
Con
Win | NATO Seizes Iranian Oil Fields Preliminary to Using Economic Pressure On Iran To Comply With NPT. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 218.96 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.23 |
Con
Win | Ford Motor Co. will file for bankruptcy. | US | 8/6/2007 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 50 CON | 115.71 |
Con
Win | Syria and Iran invade Iraq and set up insurgent puppet regime.
| Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 82.07 | 1.01 | 35 CON | 35.43 |
Con
Win | Iraq Reconciliation Deal Package - Saddam Leaves Iraq To Live In Exile | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 13.25 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.82 |
Con
Win | U.S. housing market decline - 2006 median home price lower than 2005 | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.94 | 1.52 | 5 CON | 7.58 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran by theend of December 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 83.60 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.24 |
Pro
Win | Sen. Joe Lieberman wins his Senate seat as an Independent candidate from Conn. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.08 | 13.02 | 10 PRO | 10.83 |
Con
Win | Walid Jumblat is assasinated in Lebanon, sparking hostilities between pro Syrian and anti Syrian forces in Beirut, Israel uses this to invade Lebanon.
| Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 53.86 | 1.02 | 15 CON | 15.28 |
Con
Win | Finland applies for NATO membership. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 41.76 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 51.23 |
Pro
Win | Israel's incursion into Gaza will not stop the Qassam rocket attacks | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 3.02 | 1.50 | 10 PRO | 30.19 |
Con
Win | Malaysia the victim of a large-scale Islamic fundamentalist movement resulting in the overthrow of the current government. | World | 1/18/2007 | 9.54 | 1.12 | 262 CON | 292.67 |
Con
Win | Israel will wage terrorist attacks with in Iran on the Iranian nuclear facilities.Iran will counter with terrorist attacks and open attacks on Israel and the Gulf States. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Israel will wage terrorist attacks with in Iran, on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel will not be hidden it will be open war fare. Iran will counter with direct attacks on Israel. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack two souther or western or midwestern American Cities simultaneously | China | 1/18/2007 | 263.90 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.38 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will stage an attack in Washington D.C. against the White House Pentagon or Capitol Building before the end of the year | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 285.52 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.18 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.06 | 19.14 | 10 PRO | 10.55 |
Con
Win | A civil war will break-out in Serbia over the political status of Kosovo. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 9.57 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 55.83 |
Con
Win | After Bush leaves office, Blair will follow him, and amid Democratic backlash to indict Bush appointees, another US terror attack will take place on the scale of 9-11 or the UK train attacks. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 76.50 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.33 |
Con
Win | A civil insurrection requiring regular armed forces troops will occur in a US city before Bush leaves office. | US | 1/18/2007 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 20 CON | 21.54 |
Con
Win | US Withdraws from Iraq, Which Quickly Degenerates into Civil War | Iraq | 1/18/2007 | 9.08 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.24 |
Con
Win | Successful or not, there will be an attempt to carry out an attack on American citizens from Canadian soil. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 5.22 | 1.24 | 50 CON | 61.84 |
Con
Win | The chain of public relations disasters for the Chinese govt, will build into a wider, self-sustaining uprising that threatens Beijing's rule. | China | 1/18/2007 | 17.09 | 1.06 | 150 CON | 159.32 |
Con
Win | The Eurabian Civil War which started in Paris will become the new Sarajevo "shot heard round the world," as it generates farther-reaching ripple effects, including sinking Turkey's bid to enter EU. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 42.67 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.24 |
Con
Win | The US begins construction of an Isreali style fence along the Mexican-US border. | US | 1/18/2007 | 5.12 | 1.24 | 50 CON | 62.14 |
Con
Win | Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.78 | 2.27 | 5 CON | 11.37 |
Con
Win | One or more space tourists will be killed in a flight accident in the first year of private commercial space travel. | Sci/Tech | 1/18/2007 | 7.83 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.46 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Iraq. | US | 1/18/2007 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.42 |
Con
Win | Saddam WMD found before 12/31/06 | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 79.00 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.13 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon is used in anger in either India or Pakistan. | World | 1/18/2007 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.00 |
Con
Win | Iran will successfully hit Tel Aviv with a missile fired from Lebanon | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 121.33 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.08 |
Con
Win | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.68 |
Con
Win | Jihadis attempt to assassinate Pope Benedict during his upcoming visit to Turkey | Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 6.18 | 1.19 | 5 CON | 5.97 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda assasinates President
Bush.
| Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 69.80 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.15 |
Con
Win | Internal corruption and violence in Nigeria causes a U.S. intervention. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.19 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.21 |
Con
Win | Anbar province will declare its independence from Iraq. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 22.01 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.48 |
Con
Win | A major official of the EU or any European country will lose his or her job for publicly denying the Holocaust or praising Nazi Germany. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 2.95 | 1.51 | 10 CON | 15.12 |
Con
Win | At least one Levee is breached in New Orleans, East New Orleans or Jefferson Parrish before the end of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. | US | 12/30/2006 | 13.14 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.82 |
Con
Win | Diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Venezuela will be severed. | US | 12/30/2006 | 8.55 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.32 |
Con
Win | Venezuela attacks Colombia | General | 12/30/2006 | 10.99 | 1.10 | 250 CON | 275.03 |
Con
Win | Military conflict erupts between India and Pakistan. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.21 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.09 |
Con
Win | XM8 uses caseless ammo | US | 12/30/2006 | 153.91 | 1.01 | 82 CON | 82.54 |
Con
Win | The UN Security Council will impose new sanctions against the Iranian government in response to Iran's threat to resume its uranium enrichment programme.
| Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 17.95 | 1.06 | 64 CON | 67.78 |
Con
Win | Assad regime in Syria falls | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 19.39 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.54 |
Con
Win | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.26 |
Con
Win | The three U.S. soldiers charged with murder will be convicted and handed over to an Iraqi courts for sentencing. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 67.77 | 1.01 | 290 CON | 294.34 |
Con
Win | Democrat Bill Nelson will NOT be re-elected to the U.S. Senate representing Florida. | US | 12/30/2006 | 14.52 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.70 |
Con
Win | Evidence will be discovered that elements of Saddam's WMD program were secreted in the Syria controlled Bekaa Valley. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 50 CON | 115.62 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai will be overthrown in a coup or assassinated. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 10.94 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.03 |
Con
Win | The Coup attempt in Thailand will fail | World | 10/21/2006 | 78.10 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.13 |
Con
Win | Venezuela will price its oil exports in euros rather than US Dollars. | World | 10/21/2006 | 34.48 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.15 |
Con
Win | President Chen in Taiwan will be overthrown by the people and force to resign | China | 10/21/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9 CON | 9.00 |
Con
Win | UN troop strength in Lebanon will reach 15,000 by the end of September. | Middle East | 10/21/2006 | 150.81 | 1.01 | 93 CON | 93.62 |
Con
Win | World War 3 Is Coming In 2006 | China | 10/21/2006 | 25.49 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.08 |
Con
Win | The United States will attempt to intercept and shoot down North Korea's missile test | World | 10/21/2006 | 24.61 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.24 |
Con
Win | Japan & Tiawan sign mutual defence agreements against China | China | 10/21/2006 | 17.33 | 1.06 | 5 CON | 5.31 |
Con
Win | Japan & Tiawan, in defence against the perceived growing threat from China, sign a mutual defence agreement by 2006. | China | 10/21/2006 | 28.15 | 1.04 | 205 CON | 212.55 |
Con
Win | U.S. Marines enter Beirut to evacuate Americans trapped by current hostilities to Cypres | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 4.91 | 1.26 | 100 CON | 125.61 |
Con
Win | 22nd of August, Iranian Attack on Isreal | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 8.94 | 1.13 | 20 CON | 22.52 |
Con
Win | Israel will succeed in detstroying Hezballahs mobile missiles | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 71.55 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.07 |
Con
Win | Wal-Mart Announces Plan To Open First Store In Iraq | Iraq | 7/14/2006 | 19.15 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.75 |
Pro
Lose | North Korea will launch its Taepodong-2 missle in defiance of the Inernational community. | World | 7/14/2006 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 100 CON | 181.64 |
Con
Win | Montenegro declares independence of Serbia by July 13, 2006. | Europe | 7/14/2006 | 3.23 | 1.45 | 50 CON | 72.40 |
Con
Win | A Shia-dominated Iraqi Defense Force that will crush the insurgency utilizing ruthless tactics. The American electorate will look the other way and accept this as acceptable. | Iraq | 6/1/2006 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 100 CON | 256.98 |
Con
Win | Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) | China | 6/1/2006 | 15.43 | 1.07 | 40 CON | 42.77 |
Con
Win | The United States will attack and destroy Iranian nuclear facilities by the end of April 2006. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 29.82 | 1.03 | 40 CON | 41.39 |
Con
Win | If convicted on molestation charges, Michael Jackson chooses to commit suicide rather than going to prison. | US | 4/13/2006 | 18.22 | 1.06 | 200 CON | 211.61 |
Con
Win | If Robert Mugabe refuses to step down as urged by the International Crisis Group, he will be overthrown in a coup d etat. | World | 4/10/2006 | 8.35 | 1.14 | 100 CON | 113.61 |
Con
Win | Bashir Assad is assasinated in Syria causing an Islamic fundamentilist revolution within its borders. US forces debate moving into Syria to stabilize region.
| Middle East | 4/10/2006 | 20.93 | 1.05 | 40 CON | 42.01 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.70 |
Con
Win | Christians somewhere in the world will riot and kill non-christians or destroy a non-christian place of worship between March 2, 2006 and March 12, 2006. | World | 3/12/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | Fundamentalist Islamic supporters kidnap a local prominent citizien of the USA in the USA and behead him in the USA when their demands are not met. | Terrorism | 3/12/2006 | 8.78 | 1.13 | 15 CON | 16.93 |
Con
Win | Formal decision reached to relocate at least half of all American troops based in Western Europe to Eastern Europe or Middle East. | US | 3/12/2006 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 10 CON | 13.01 |
Con
Win | Independent Palestinian state created. | Middle East | 3/12/2006 | 12.76 | 1.09 | 5 CON | 5.43 |
Con
Win | [Mind You This Is Only A Prediction] There Will Be An Assassination Attempt Made On President George W. Bush. Not By Arab Terrorists But By American Liberal[s]. | US | 1/24/2006 | 3.69 | 1.37 | 50 CON | 68.58 |
Con
Win | Zarqawi will be captured with help from Al-Zwahiri | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 901.50 | 1.00 | 45 CON | 45.05 |
Con
Win | Iran stops/restricts oil export and causes significant rise in crude oil prices. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 228.67 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.22 |
Con
Win | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 15 CON | 16.72 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Clarence Thomas to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.32 | 1.16 | 50 CON | 57.91 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 130 CON | 130.74 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorist attack the Vatican and/or Pope. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 16.26 | 1.07 | 15 CON | 15.98 |
Con
Win | Asian Bird Flu is Red Chinese biowar WMD. | China | 1/24/2006 | 145.90 | 1.01 | 40 CON | 40.28 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein is featured in a Cheetos or Doritos commercial. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 38.13 | 1.03 | 15 CON | 15.40 |
Con
Win | A communist country goes to war with a US ally (or America itself). | World | 1/24/2006 | 35.42 | 1.03 | 75 CON | 77.18 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.10 | 11.14 | 15 PRO | 16.48 |
Con
Lose | Any military aircraft of any nation shot down deliberately in air-to-air combat by the US. | US | 1/24/2006 | 12.87 | 1.08 | 80 PRO | 1,029.87 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaeda carries out a suicide attack against a cruise ship. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 10.97 | 1.10 | 5 CON | 5.50 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies in 2005. | World | 1/24/2006 | 10.11 | 1.11 | 120 CON | 133.17 |
Con
Win | Major vote fraud allegations in the Washington and Wisconsin 2004 elections finally produce effective reforms.
| US | 1/24/2006 | 11.57 | 1.09 | 5 CON | 5.47 |
Con
Win | A terrorist group files suit against the United States of America or an American defense company. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 8.87 | 1.13 | 25 CON | 28.18 |
Con
Win | Terrorists take the United States to court. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 4.35 | 1.30 | 5 CON | 6.49 |
Con
Win | The House of Representatives will vote to suspend U.S. funding of the United Nations until Kofi Annan resigns. | General | 1/24/2006 | 5.03 | 1.25 | 90 CON | 112.35 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.54 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 205 CON | 213.58 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorists will successfully smuggle WMD into the U.S. via Mexico. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 18.43 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.87 |
Con
Win | North Korea and Iran will form an alliance and try to nuke Israel. | World | 1/24/2006 | 175.08 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.06 |
Con
Win | Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration Objections | US | 1/24/2006 | 8.25 | 1.14 | 5 CON | 5.69 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.63 |
Con
Win | A Chinese taikonaut (astronaut) is lost in a fatal accident during a space mission. | China | 1/24/2006 | 6.71 | 1.18 | 10 CON | 11.75 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Afghanistan. | US | 1/24/2006 | 12.86 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.42 |
Con
Win | Next use of nuclear weapons in anger. Can be a terorist device provided it produces a true detonation and not merely a messy fizzle. | Terroism | 1/24/2006 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 5 CON | 5.79 |
Con
Lose | US Army will fail to meet its recruiting quotas for the next six months. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.30 | 4.28 | 43 PRO | 56.10 |
Con
Win | the north korean goverment will fall this time next year. | World | 12/10/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 50 CON | 75.49 |
Con
Win | Bosnian Serbs Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic are turned over to the International War Crimes court in The Hague. | Europe | 12/10/2005 | 13.33 | 1.08 | 20 CON | 21.62 |
Con
Win | The Iraqi Constitution, when delivered, will implement Sharia and make Islam the religion of the state. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 26.73 | 1.04 | 15 CON | 15.58 |
Con
Lose | John Roberts will be confirmed by the Senate to replace the retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 11/10/2005 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 45 PRO | 90.15 |
Con
Win | Insurgency in Iraq will increase causing British withdrawal and Tony Blair's resignation | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 104.82 | 1.01 | 127 CON | 128.22 |
Pro
Win | Kofi Annan is still U.N. Secretary General | World | 10/7/2005 | 1.03 | 34.26 | 50 PRO | 51.50 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.71 |
Con
Win | US announces plans to privatize Fannie Mae | US | 10/7/2005 | 33.07 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.16 |
Con
Win | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 5 CON | 6.17 |
Con
Win | The EU will lift the arms embargo against China, despite Administration protests. | Europe | 9/22/2005 | 1.60 | 2.68 | 5 CON | 13.40 |
Pro
Win | The death toll from Katrina will exceed 300 as determined two weeks from now. | US | 9/14/2005 | 1.08 | 14.26 | 100 PRO | 107.54 |
Pro
Win | Space Shuttle Discovery, currently on mission STS-114 MCC, will land safely in August. | Sci/Tech | 8/23/2005 | 1.00 | 217.10 | 1 PRO | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Israel occupies part of Lebanon | Middle East | 8/23/2005 | 70.85 | 1.01 | 83 CON | 84.19 |
Con
Win | US will challenge Venezuela to allow access to its country to investigate disappearance of woman from Aruba. | World | 8/10/2005 | 103.76 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.24 |
Con
Win | President Bush will nominate Alex Kozinski (9th Circuit Court of Appeals, appointed by Ronald Reagan) to replace the retiring Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 8/10/2005 | 16.41 | 1.06 | 75 CON | 79.87 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food corruption investigations, Kofi Anan will resign as Sectretary-General of the United Nations. | Iraq | 8/10/2005 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 5 CON | 8.48 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 54.76 |
Con
Win | Osama bin Laden caught or killed | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 35.66 | 1.03 | 150 CON | 154.33 |
Con
Lose | NASA will launch Space Shuttle Discovery by July 4th. | Sci/Tech | 7/6/2005 | 1.47 | 3.12 | 300 PRO | 441.47 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 23 CON | 32.05 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 33 CON | 34.76 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.40 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.00 |
Con
Win | US forces in Iraq decline to under 60,000. | Middle East | 6/10/2005 | 4.72 | 1.27 | 5 CON | 6.34 |
Con
Win | In the first half of 2005, the President will announce plans to pull most or all U.S. troops out of Iraq. | Iraq | 5/31/2005 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 205 CON | 234.84 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.19 |
Pro
Win | Labour party wins British general election | Europe | 5/11/2005 | 1.03 | 31.05 | 500 PRO | 516.64 |
Con
Win | US sends large-scale stabilization force to Darfur after presidential election. | World | 5/11/2005 | 16.05 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.33 |
Con
Win | Kurd vs. Sunni vs. Shiite civil war explodes in Iraq. US troops caught in middle. | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 2.84 | 1.54 | 5 CON | 7.72 |
Con
Win | Will Chile grant Bolivia the access to the Pacific that they are asking for. | World | 4/20/2005 | 110.63 | 1.01 | 145 CON | 146.32 |
Pro
Win | The Vatican will have to appoint a new Pope. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.22 | 5.51 | 50 PRO | 61.08 |
Con
Win | The Next Pope Will Be From Latin America | General | 4/19/2005 | 3.16 | 1.46 | 5 CON | 7.31 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will be from a country of the former East Block(inc. old Soviet Union). | General | 4/19/2005 | 13.47 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.80 |
Con
Win | Next Pope will take the name Pius XIII. | General | 4/19/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.52 |
Pro
Lose | Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger is chosen to replace John Paul II as Pope | General | 4/19/2005 | 4.05 | 1.33 | 5 CON | 6.64 |
Con
Win | A civil war breaks out in Lebanon with Sunni-Druze-Maronites fighting a Hizbullah-Palestinian alliance. Syria will not interfere, but will provide Hizbulla/PLO with arms and intelligence | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 14.49 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.71 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.12 |
Con
Win | US bombs the Iranian nuclear facilities to stop work on nuclear weapons. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 11.44 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 10.96 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.19 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 53 CON | 58.24 |
Con
Win | US Army adopts 6.8mm round for its new M-8 assault rifle. Heavier round favored because it is deadlier than 5.56mm round. | US | 4/17/2005 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 30 CON | 39.54 |
Con
Win | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 505 CON | 509.50 |
Con
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be un-cancelled. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 139 CON | 139.00 |
Con
Win | Israel-Palestine cease-fire collapses within one month. | Middle East | 3/15/2005 | 2.34 | 1.74 | 5 CON | 8.72 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.20 |
Pro
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be cancelled. | Sports | 2/20/2005 | 1.05 | 20.28 | 250 PRO | 262.97 |
Con
Win | Leader of the main al-Qaeda cell in North America is caught and found to be an American (born) citizen. | Terrorism | 1/30/2005 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 25 CON | 32.21 |
Con
Lose | December 2004 COMEX gold settles at/above $436.50. | World | 1/30/2005 | 1.09 | 11.55 | 5 PRO | 5.47 |
Con
Win | US Cancels F-22 fighter. | US | 1/30/2005 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.69 |
Con
Win | Eastern Ukraine Secedes in election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 16.61 | 1.06 | 105 CON | 111.72 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 510 CON | 510.00 |
Con
Win | Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich will use his military and police to violently suppress the Opposition protesters against his re-election. | General | 1/30/2005 | 9.24 | 1.12 | 5 CON | 5.61 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 45 PRO | 45.85 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 8.10 | 1.14 | 5 CON | 5.70 |
Con
Win | EU launches sanctions on the Ukraine govt over the continuing electoral standoff there. EU refrains from referring the issue to the United Nations. | Europe | 1/4/2005 | 23.42 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.22 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 6.86 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.85 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.08 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 55.93 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 5 PRO | 5.15 |
Con
Win | In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection. | US | 1/4/2005 | 6.56 | 1.18 | 5 CON | 5.90 |
Con
Win | If George Bush wins the election he will dramatically increase the military presence in Iraq in an effort to bring the war to a conclusion. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.80 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.39 |
Con
Win | Military aircraft shot down deliberately by US in air to air combat before 1/1/2005 | Sci/Tech | 1/4/2005 | 14.43 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.37 |
Con
Win | Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons will be used in a terrorist attack in Aisa, Europe or North America before the new year. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 5.84 | 1.21 | 9 CON | 10.86 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 60 CON | 74.99 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.41 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 5 PRO | 5.76 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.29 |
Con
Win | Breakaway republic from Indonesia | World | 1/4/2005 | 45.89 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.22 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.36 |
Con
Win | Major Islamic terrorist attack attempted in Australia in the fortnight immediately before the Federal Election. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 7.44 | 1.16 | 5 CON | 5.78 |
Con
Win | Revolution in Iran | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 100 CON | 176.98 |
Con
Lose | UN imposes trade sanctions on Iran for failure to cooperate with IAE Comission. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 6.89 | 1.17 | 50 PRO | 344.38 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 25 CON | 30.02 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 5 CON | 8.72 |
Con
Win | Terririst attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 20.08 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.52 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.03 |
Con
Win | Islamic Terrorists use a nuclear (including dirty bombs), biological or chemical weapon against the west, on any scale. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 10 CON | 13.45 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.19 |
Con
Win | Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq. | Terrorism | 12/30/2004 | 98.59 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.05 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 5 CON | 5.26 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Turkey will be accepted into the EU | World | 12/6/2004 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.70 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 5 PRO | 5.07 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean financial and civil meltdown causes South African intervention to rectify. Mugabe flees to third country to avoid trail for crimes against humanity. | World | 12/6/2004 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.78 |
Con
Win | Scott Peterson will be found NOT GUILTY of murdering his wife and unborn child. | General | 11/12/2004 | 11.33 | 1.10 | 5 CON | 5.48 |
Con
Win | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 10 CON | 19.27 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.01 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 30 CON | 32.81 |
Con
Win | Taiwan acquires the Ticonderoga-class CGs the U.S. Navy is retiring. | China | 11/3/2004 | 5.02 | 1.25 | 5 CON | 6.24 |
Con
Win | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 65 CON | 168.78 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 5 CON | 5.73 |
Con
Win | Anaheim Angels win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 332.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Los Angeles Dodgers win World Series! | Sports | 11/3/2004 | 510.00 | 1.00 | 1 CON | 1.00 |
Con
Win | Republicans pick up at least 5 seats in the US senate from the November 2nd, 2004 elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 5 CON | 6.07 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 10 PRO | 11.54 |
Pro
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will hit $53 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 1.04 | 25.17 | 5 PRO | 5.21 |
Con
Lose | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will drop to $47 or less per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 5 PRO | 23.92 |
Pro
Win | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 5 PRO | 5.47 |
Con
Win | Kerry revealed before Election Day to been given an Other-than-Honorable or Dishonorable Discharge from the U.S. military during the Vietnam War | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.75 | 1.27 | 5 CON | 6.33 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 5 CON | 6.06 |
Con
Win | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 50 CON | 64.83 |
Con
Win | By 8pm EST on Tuesday, November 9th, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.60 | 1.22 | 5 CON | 6.09 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.38 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 5 CON | 6.25 |
Con
Win | Homeland Security (FBI, CIA, Etc.) will announce they successfully foiled a terrorist attempt to disrupt the U.S. Presidential Election within one week of the Election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 5 CON | 7.10 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will reach $60 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | US | 11/3/2004 | 8.22 | 1.14 | 5 CON | 5.69 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.12 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.10 |
Con
Win | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.30 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 5 CON | 5.23 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 30 CON | 39.56 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 5 CON | 5.44 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 7 CON | 7.27 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 10 CON | 12.76 |
Con
Win | Forged Dan Rather Memos will be shown to have emerged either directly from the Kerry campaign or from a pro-Democrat 527 organization (such as moveon etc.) | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 5 CON | 6.63 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.89 |
Con
Lose | Responsibility for the Abhu Ghraib incident will be charged to an officer with rank lower than Lt. Colonel. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 10 PRO | 23.51 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 5 PRO | 5.14 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden killed or captured right in time for US elections. | US | 10/16/2004 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 30 CON | 54.91 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai is assassinated before the Afghan elections. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 17.85 | 1.06 | 5 CON | 5.30 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 5 CON | 5.17 |
Con
Win | North Korea is caught proliferating nuclear materials. | World | 10/3/2004 | 10.23 | 1.11 | 15 CON | 16.63 |
Con
Win | For his role in the National Guard memo scandal, Dan Rather resigns or is fired as anchor of the CBS Evening News by the 1st of October. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.37 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.21 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.21 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 30 CON | 35.03 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 20 CON | 21.39 |
Con
Win | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.85 |
Con
Win | Bush campaign files lawsuit for collusion between Kerry campaign and MoveOn.org. | US | 9/15/2004 | 207.47 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.02 |
Con
Win | Imam Ali shrine complex is raided succesfully, but major damage occurs to the shrine; thus, sparking a mass Shia upraising. | Iraq | 9/15/2004 | 91.36 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.11 |
Con
Win | WMD attack against London. | Terrorism | 9/7/2004 | 8.39 | 1.14 | 24 CON | 27.25 |
Pro
Win | 300 people arrested during Republican National Convention. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.13 | 8.75 | 5 PRO | 5.65 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 10 PRO | 12.94 |
Con
Win | Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualties | Terrorism | 9/3/2004 | 16.25 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.33 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.15 |
Con
Win | oil closes above $50.00 | World | 9/1/2004 | 6.09 | 1.20 | 5 CON | 5.98 |
Con
Win | Peace efforts in Najaf fail and the Imam Ali shrine complex is raided to evict Muqtada al Sadr and his army. | Iraq | 9/1/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 56 CON | 74.24 |
Pro
Win | Iran is found to be actively supporting sabotage and/or terrorism within Iraq. | Iraq | 8/30/2004 | 1.08 | 13.48 | 10 PRO | 10.80 |
Con
Win | President Bush will attend the Olympics in Greece. | US | 8/28/2004 | 19.31 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.55 |
Con
Win | An explosion severely damages the Imam Ali shrine.
| Iraq | 8/27/2004 | 10.70 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.03 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 48 CON | 54.09 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.44 | 1.23 | 25 CON | 30.63 |
Con
Win | Wesley Clark will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.47 | 1.22 | 50 CON | 61.18 |
Con
Lose | Tom Vilsack will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 20 PRO | 57.64 |
Con
Win | John McCain will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.00 |
Con
Win | Evan Bayh will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 17.60 | 1.06 | 25 CON | 26.51 |
Con
Win | Chuck Hagel will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 106.50 | 1.01 | 25 CON | 25.24 |
Con
Lose | Major terrorist attack on Montreal public rail system prior to 06/28/04 Canadian General elections. | Terrorism | 6/29/2004 | 59.46 | 1.02 | 2 PRO | 118.92 |
Pro
Win | Oil price rises above $44 | US | 6/1/2004 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 20 PRO | 30.90 |
