| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) | China | 6/1/2006 | 15.43 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 106.93 |
Con
Win | U.S. invades Baathist Syria from Iraq. | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.44 | 1.29 | 50 CON | 64.55 |
Con
Lose | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 25 PRO | 110.29 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.31 |
Con
Win | Next use of nuclear weapons in anger. Can be a terorist device provided it produces a true detonation and not merely a messy fizzle. | Terroism | 1/24/2006 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 50 CON | 57.86 |
Con
Win | American Invasion of Iran Officially Commences. Defined as the first embed entering Iran w/o Iranian govt. permission, because our SOF will have already been operating there for some time. | US | 11/10/2005 | 6.13 | 1.20 | 25 CON | 29.88 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.83 |
Con
Win | US Army adopts 6.8mm round for its new M-8 assault rifle. Heavier round favored because it is deadlier than 5.56mm round. | US | 4/17/2005 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 5 CON | 6.59 |
Con
Win | The interem government due to govern Iraq between July 1 and elections next year does not last until elections, but resigns or is thrown out | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 12.32 | 1.09 | 50 CON | 54.42 |
Pro
Win | Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005 | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.08 | 12.86 | 25 PRO | 27.11 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 360 CON | 389.48 |
Con
Win | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 250 CON | 329.45 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 125 CON | 188.91 |
Con
Win | Revolution in Iran | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 25 CON | 44.24 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 25 CON | 43.58 |
Con
Win | Islamic Terrorists use a nuclear (including dirty bombs), biological or chemical weapon against the west, on any scale. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 250 CON | 336.15 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 250 CON | 262.88 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 250 CON | 251.74 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 250 PRO | 253.44 |
Con
Lose | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 100 PRO | 207.92 |
Con
Win | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 100 CON | 259.66 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 35 CON | 37.69 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 50 CON | 62.49 |
Pro
Win | Bush reelected in November 2 | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 100 PRO | 163.88 |
Pro
Win | President Bush is reelected and receives more than 50% of the Popular vote. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 100 PRO | 169.18 |
Con
Lose | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 110 PRO | 270.33 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 50 CON | 65.94 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 135 CON | 146.76 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi WMD stockpiles located - in Syria/Bekaa Valley | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 2.77 | 1.56 | 50 PRO | 138.61 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 200 CON | 237.76 |
Con
Lose | Responsibility for the Abhu Ghraib incident will be charged to an officer with rank lower than Lt. Colonel. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 100 PRO | 235.10 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 225 PRO | 231.26 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden killed or captured right in time for US elections. | US | 10/16/2004 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 50 PRO | 110.22 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 217 CON | 240.06 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 60 CON | 62.06 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 250 CON | 255.20 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 25 CON | 29.19 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 106.95 |
Pro
Lose | Disclplinary action (of any sort)for the Abu Ghraib incident will be faced by an officer with rank of Brig. General or higher. | US | 9/16/2004 | 1.38 | 3.65 | 100 CON | 365.09 |
Con
Win | WMD attack against London. | Terrorism | 9/7/2004 | 8.39 | 1.14 | 50 CON | 56.76 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney announces that he will not seek the Vice-Presidency in 2004. | US | 9/3/2004 | 3.19 | 1.46 | 125 CON | 182.07 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 25 CON | 30.38 |
Con
Win | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 25 CON | 56.55 |
Con
Win | 9/11 commission explicitly blames Bush | US | 7/23/2004 | 14.74 | 1.07 | 25 CON | 26.82 |
Con
Win | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 7/14/2004 | 6.05 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 59.89 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Abu Ghraib scandal, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigns. | US | 6/30/2004 | 26.56 | 1.04 | 200 CON | 207.82 |
Con
Win | US opens the strategic oil reserves to ease fuel prices. | US | 6/1/2004 | 7.68 | 1.15 | 25 CON | 28.74 |
Con
Win | Civil war erupts in Iraq. Shiites, Sunnites, Kurds attack Coalitian Forces and increasingly also each other. | Iraq | 6/1/2004 | 6.35 | 1.19 | 20 CON | 23.74 |
Con
Lose | Hamas stages a terror attack against Americans in revenge for their leaders being killed by the Israelis. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 25.08 | 1.04 | 25 PRO | 627.07 |
Con
Lose | Major Hamas attack against Israeli civilians, killing at least a hundred people. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 20 PRO | 291.00 |
Con
Lose | A definitive link is made between Al Quaeda and the ETA with regard to the bombings in Madrid | Terrorism | 4/9/2004 | 6.08 | 1.20 | 50 PRO | 303.94 |
