| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | George W. Bush succeeded by his vice-president. | US | 1/20/2009 | 5.46 | 1.22 | 50 CON | 61.20 |
Con
Win | Dow Jones average will close below 6000` | US | 1/1/2009 | 3.78 | 1.36 | 50 CON | 67.96 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney does not finish 2nd term. | US | 1/1/2009 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 100 CON | 125.85 |
Con
Win | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 40 CON | 53.84 |
Con
Lose | Republican candidate wins the white House/Presidency in 2008 election. | US | 11/5/2008 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 50 PRO | 131.36 |
Pro
Lose | The person elected President of the US in 2008 will be or will have been a US Senator. | US | 11/3/2008 | 1.07 | 15.24 | 40 CON | 609.60 |
Con
Win | The Constitution of the United States is amended to permit naturalized citizens to be President. | US | 11/1/2008 | 7.66 | 1.15 | 60 CON | 69.01 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 77.83 | 1.01 | 40 CON | 40.52 |
Con
Lose | Fred Dalton Thompson will be the Republican nominee for the 2008 Presidential election. | US | 9/5/2008 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 40 PRO | 227.53 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.32 | 4.14 | 40 CON | 165.70 |
Con
Win | Democrats will convince Senator Joe Lieberman they need him to be the Democratic presidential standard bearer for the 2008 presidential race. | US | 8/31/2008 | 25.59 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.63 |
Con
Win | Baharain King His Majesty Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be attacked and badly hurt in veciuos attack, forcing him to move into exille. | Middle East | 8/31/2008 | 27.37 | 1.04 | 30 CON | 31.14 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.69 |
Con
Lose | China military in Cuba. Announce defense and trade (subsidy) pact. | China | 5/1/2008 | 9.17 | 1.12 | 30 PRO | 275.15 |
Con
Lose | Airbus SAS will not sell more than 140 A350 XWB aircraft by December 31, 2007. | General | 1/12/2008 | 2.29 | 1.78 | 100 PRO | 228.93 |
Pro
Win | Boeing will sell at least 60 B787 aircraft [firm orders only] between 1/1/2007 and 12/31/2007. | General | 1/11/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 PRO | 50.00 |
Con
Win | American will station the majority of its troops in the Kurdish North of Iraq and all ow the Shi'a and Sunnis fight it out. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 2000 CON | 2,379.09 |
Con
Win | Iran will use a nuclear weapon against Israel within the next year. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 1,471.50 | 1.00 | 40 CON | 40.03 |
Con
Win | A passenger aircraft flying out of an American airport will be hijacked. | Terrorism | 1/8/2008 | 21.95 | 1.05 | 40 CON | 41.91 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein regains dictatorial power in Iraq | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 40 CON | 41.31 |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.89 |
Con
Lose | Iran will test a nuclear weapon, either openly or without acknowledging it, before 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.70 | 1.59 | 20 PRO | 54.04 |
Con
Win | Democrats In Congress Propose Federally Mandated Licensing Of the Possession Of All Handguns Together With Mandated Fees. | US | 11/29/2007 | 9.49 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 55.89 |
Con
Win | The Chicago Cubs will win the 2007 Major League BaseBall World Series | Sports | 11/29/2007 | 73.77 | 1.01 | 40 CON | 40.55 |
Con
Win | Israel and Syria will go to war by the end of the summer | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 33.76 | 1.03 | 50 CON | 51.53 |
Con
Win | Turkish F16 will be shot down by Greek Air Force. | Europe | 11/29/2007 | 17.14 | 1.06 | 100 CON | 106.20 |
Con
Win | Terrorists Blow Up Euro Disney. Kill hundreds of children. Muslim Group claims responsibility. France makes massive political shift towards America and Europe on War in Middle East | Middle East | 11/29/2007 | 256.00 | 1.00 | 40 CON | 40.16 |
Con
Win | Pope Benedict XVI will die before March 1, 2007 | World | 8/6/2007 | 7.11 | 1.16 | 20 CON | 23.27 |
Con
Win | India will attack millitant outfits in pakistan occupied kashmir, thereby beginning the World War 3 by 01-03-07 | Terrorism | 8/6/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | NATO Seizes Iranian Oil Fields Preliminary to Using Economic Pressure On Iran To Comply With NPT. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 218.96 | 1.00 | 40 CON | 40.18 |
Con
Win | General Motors will file for bankruptcy. | US | 8/6/2007 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 40 CON | 69.97 |
Con
Lose | The 15 UK servicemen siezed by Iran in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, will still be held as of 4/10/07. | World | 8/6/2007 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 200 PRO | 477.25 |
Con
Win | Syria and Iran invade Iraq and set up insurgent puppet regime.
| Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 82.07 | 1.01 | 40 CON | 40.49 |
Pro
Lose | Colts win '07 Superbowl. | US | 8/6/2007 | 3.47 | 1.40 | 100 CON | 140.43 |
Con
Win | Iraq Reconciliation Deal Package - Saddam Leaves Iraq To Live In Exile | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 13.25 | 1.08 | 20 CON | 21.63 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran by theend of December 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 83.60 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.61 |
Pro
Win | Sen. Joe Lieberman wins his Senate seat as an Independent candidate from Conn. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.08 | 13.02 | 40 PRO | 43.33 |
Con
Win | Walid Jumblat is assasinated in Lebanon, sparking hostilities between pro Syrian and anti Syrian forces in Beirut, Israel uses this to invade Lebanon.
| Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 53.86 | 1.02 | 50 CON | 50.95 |
Con
Win | Finland applies for NATO membership. | Europe | 1/18/2007 | 41.76 | 1.02 | 40 CON | 40.98 |
Con
Win | During the next presidential administration, bills will be introduced in the House and Senate that would allow non-natural-born US Citizens to run for President. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 30 CON | 57.09 |
Con
Win | Illinois will approve public funding for stem cell research. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.81 | 2.24 | 50 CON | 112.00 |
Con
Win | Malaysia the victim of a large-scale Islamic fundamentalist movement resulting in the overthrow of the current government. | World | 1/18/2007 | 9.54 | 1.12 | 30 CON | 33.51 |
Con
Win | Ehud Olmert will lose his position as Israeli
Prime Minister not later than December 31, 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 3.45 | 1.41 | 60 CON | 84.53 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will stage an attack in Washington D.C. against the White House Pentagon or Capitol Building before the end of the year | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 285.52 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.18 |
Con
Win | After Bush leaves office, Blair will follow him, and amid Democratic backlash to indict Bush appointees, another US terror attack will take place on the scale of 9-11 or the UK train attacks. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 76.50 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.66 |
Con
Win | A civil insurrection requiring regular armed forces troops will occur in a US city before Bush leaves office. | US | 1/18/2007 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 40 CON | 43.07 |
Con
Win | Al qaeda will stage a major attack against an American City, resulting in at least 500 people killed or injured. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 1.75 | 2.34 | 200 CON | 467.26 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney will not be the Vice President of the US at the end of 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 9.11 | 1.12 | 40 CON | 44.93 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro will be out of power by end of 2006. | World | 1/18/2007 | 4.32 | 1.30 | 50 CON | 65.06 |
Con
Win | William Jefferson Clinton becomes the next Secretary General of the United Nations. | World | 1/18/2007 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 50 CON | 57.35 |
Con
Win | The Repubilcans lose the Senate. | US | 1/18/2007 | 11.08 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 109.92 |
Con
Win | One or more space tourists will be killed in a flight accident in the first year of private commercial space travel. | Sci/Tech | 1/18/2007 | 7.83 | 1.15 | 200 CON | 229.28 |
Con
Win | 1st Terrorist Nuke Will Be Of Pakistani Origin -designed or built there, or uses Pakistani fissionables. Can be a "dirty" device if it uses a chain reaction, or be captured w/o going off. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 4.28 | 1.30 | 30 CON | 39.15 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Iraq. | US | 1/18/2007 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.19 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will top $85 or more per barrel by November 30, 2006.
| World | 1/18/2007 | 6.12 | 1.20 | 1100 CON | 1,315.00 |
Con
Win | The Chicago Cubs will Win the 2006 World Series | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 499.67 | 1.00 | 40 CON | 40.08 |
Con
Win | Prince Fielder and Russ Branyan become the first two teammates to hit 60 home runs in a season. | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 26.90 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.86 |
Con
Lose | Demotcrats will loose at least one (1) net seat in the US Senate in the 2006 mid-term elections. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.03 | 1.97 | 1420 PRO | 2,881.93 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon is used in anger in either India or Pakistan. | World | 1/18/2007 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 40 CON | 44.00 |
Con
Win | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.37 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran before the November 7th election as "October Surprise". | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 13.44 | 1.08 | 200 CON | 216.07 |
Con
Lose | Results of 2006 mid-term elections - Republicans take losses but still retain control of both House and Senate. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 100 PRO | 172.98 |
Con
Win | Rove's October Surprise - Scenario 1: Permanent tax cuts. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 40 CON | 40.00 |
Con
Win | Jihadis attempt to assassinate Pope Benedict during his upcoming visit to Turkey | Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 6.18 | 1.19 | 60 CON | 71.59 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda assasinates President
Bush.
| Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 69.80 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.73 |
Con
Win | Internal corruption and violence in Nigeria causes a U.S. intervention. | World | 12/30/2006 | 9.19 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 56.11 |
Con
Win | A prominent Democratic Party politician (current or former: Senator, Representative, Cabinet Officer, or Governor) will be accused of financially benefiting from the U.N. Iraqi Oil-For-Food Program. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 12.62 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 108.61 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2006 elections | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.49 | 1.67 | 100 PRO | 248.96 |
Con
Lose | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2006 hurricane season. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.82 | 2.22 | 50 PRO | 90.87 |
Con
Win | At least one Levee is breached in New Orleans, East New Orleans or Jefferson Parrish before the end of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. | US | 12/30/2006 | 13.14 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 108.24 |
Con
Win | A Hurricane hits the Iberian Peninsula during the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. | Europe | 12/30/2006 | 14.35 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.49 |
Con
Win | Asian bird flu epidemic turns into human pandemic | World | 12/30/2006 | 5.99 | 1.20 | 40 CON | 48.01 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will NOT run for a second term in the U.S. Senate representing NY State. | US | 12/30/2006 | 30.18 | 1.03 | 20 CON | 20.69 |
Con
Win | XM8 uses caseless ammo | US | 12/30/2006 | 153.91 | 1.01 | 40 CON | 40.26 |
Pro
Lose | At least one house in Congress will change majority party in the Nov. election. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.44 | 3.30 | 50 CON | 164.85 |
Con
Win | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 40 CON | 40.42 |
Con
Win | The three U.S. soldiers charged with murder will be convicted and handed over to an Iraqi courts for sentencing. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 67.77 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 101.50 |
Con
Lose | Republicans gain at least 2 more (For 57+) Senate seats after the 2006 election. | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.65 | 1.60 | 40 PRO | 106.13 |
Con
Win | President Chen in Taiwan will be overthrown by the people and force to resign | China | 10/21/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | World War 3 Is Coming In 2006 | China | 10/21/2006 | 25.49 | 1.04 | 30 CON | 31.23 |
Con
Lose | The United States will attempt to intercept and shoot down North Korea's missile test | World | 10/21/2006 | 24.61 | 1.04 | 50 PRO | 1,230.63 |
Con
Win | Israel will retake a large portion of the Gaza Strip | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 14.83 | 1.07 | 40 CON | 42.89 |
Con
Win | 22nd of August, Iranian Attack on Isreal | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 8.94 | 1.13 | 40 CON | 45.04 |
Pro
Lose | Crude oil remains above $60.00 a barrel for the next 12 months. | General | 7/14/2006 | 1.84 | 2.19 | 40 CON | 87.41 |
Pro
Win | North Korea will launch its Taepodong-2 missle in defiance of the Inernational community. | World | 7/14/2006 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 100 PRO | 222.49 |
Con
Win | The United States will attack and destroy Iranian nuclear facilities by the end of April 2006. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 29.82 | 1.03 | 900 CON | 931.22 |
Con
Win | Bashir Assad is assasinated in Syria causing an Islamic fundamentilist revolution within its borders. US forces debate moving into Syria to stabilize region.
| Middle East | 4/10/2006 | 20.93 | 1.05 | 40 CON | 42.01 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 80 CON | 80.56 |
Con
Win | Christians somewhere in the world will riot and kill non-christians or destroy a non-christian place of worship between March 2, 2006 and March 12, 2006. | World | 3/12/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.00 |
Con
Win | A Democrat filibuster will succeed in forcing the withdrawal of Samuel "Scalito" Alito's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 3/12/2006 | 100.60 | 1.01 | 2640 CON | 2,666.51 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda major attack against Italy during 2006 winter olympic games in february. | Europe | 3/12/2006 | 13.49 | 1.08 | 40 CON | 43.20 |
Con
Win | Fundamentalist Islamic supporters kidnap a local prominent citizien of the USA in the USA and behead him in the USA when their demands are not met. | Terrorism | 3/12/2006 | 8.78 | 1.13 | 40 CON | 45.14 |
Con
Win | Turkey formally accepted into European Union. | Europe | 3/12/2006 | 5.10 | 1.24 | 50 CON | 62.20 |
Con
Win | Zarqawi will be captured with help from Al-Zwahiri | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 901.50 | 1.00 | 40 CON | 40.04 |
Con
Win | Iran stops/restricts oil export and causes significant rise in crude oil prices. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 228.67 | 1.00 | 40 CON | 40.18 |
Con
Win | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 40 CON | 44.58 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 40 CON | 40.23 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorist attack the Vatican and/or Pope. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 16.26 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.28 |
Con
Win | Asian Bird Flu is Red Chinese biowar WMD. | China | 1/24/2006 | 145.90 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.14 |
Con
Win | The DJIA will close at least once above 11,500 by 12/31/2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 5 CON | 6.25 |
Con
Win | A communist country goes to war with a US ally (or America itself). | World | 1/24/2006 | 35.42 | 1.03 | 20 CON | 20.58 |
Pro
Win | Social Security reform, of any kind, will be NOT be passed by Congress in 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 1.10 | 11.14 | 1850 PRO | 2,032.37 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaeda carries out a suicide attack against a cruise ship. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 10.97 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 55.01 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies in 2005. | World | 1/24/2006 | 10.11 | 1.11 | 20 CON | 22.20 |
Con
Win | Major vote fraud allegations in the Washington and Wisconsin 2004 elections finally produce effective reforms.
| US | 1/24/2006 | 11.57 | 1.09 | 50 CON | 54.73 |
Con
Win | The House of Representatives will vote to suspend U.S. funding of the United Nations until Kofi Annan resigns. | General | 1/24/2006 | 5.03 | 1.25 | 1430 CON | 1,785.04 |
Con
Win | Irreconcilable impasse on Ukraine elections results in East Ukraine vs West Ukraine split. | Europe | 1/24/2006 | 33.39 | 1.03 | 40 CON | 41.23 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.84 |
Con
Win | Islamic terrorists will successfully smuggle WMD into the U.S. via Mexico. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 18.43 | 1.06 | 50 CON | 52.87 |
Con
Win | North Korea and Iran will form an alliance and try to nuke Israel. | World | 1/24/2006 | 175.08 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.06 |
Con
Lose | Congress expands U.S. Army by two light Infantry Divisions over Bush Administration Objections | US | 1/24/2006 | 8.25 | 1.14 | 80 PRO | 659.66 |
Con
Win | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 30 CON | 57.97 |
Con
Win | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 30 CON | 38.79 |
Con
Win | Saddam escapes imprisonment, bargains his way out, is released, or is busted out by sympathizers. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 16.85 | 1.06 | 20 CON | 21.26 |
Con
Win | A Chinese taikonaut (astronaut) is lost in a fatal accident during a space mission. | China | 1/24/2006 | 6.71 | 1.18 | 40 CON | 47.00 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Afghanistan. | US | 1/24/2006 | 12.86 | 1.08 | 40 CON | 43.37 |
Con
Win | North Korea agrees to end its nuclear program and destroy all of its nuclear material. | World | 1/24/2006 | 8.60 | 1.13 | 40 CON | 45.27 |
Con
Win | Next use of nuclear weapons in anger. Can be a terorist device provided it produces a true detonation and not merely a messy fizzle. | Terroism | 1/24/2006 | 7.36 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.57 |
Con
Lose | US Army will fail to meet its recruiting quotas for the next six months. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.30 | 4.28 | 150 PRO | 195.68 |
Con
Win | Bosnian Serbs Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic are turned over to the International War Crimes court in The Hague. | Europe | 12/10/2005 | 13.33 | 1.08 | 40 CON | 43.24 |
Con
Win | Chicago Cubs win the World Series | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 91.51 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.22 |
Con
Lose | The Iraqi Constitution, when delivered, will implement Sharia and make Islam the religion of the state. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 26.73 | 1.04 | 50 PRO | 1,336.36 |
Con
Lose | John Roberts will be confirmed by the Senate to replace the retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 11/10/2005 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 50 PRO | 100.16 |
Con
Win | Runaway Bride marries (anybody) | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 4.03 | 1.33 | 70 CON | 93.09 |
Con
Win | Minutemen patroling border will suffer casualties from an attack by Mexican border patrol or MS-13 | US | 11/10/2005 | 21.00 | 1.05 | 40 CON | 42.00 |
Con
Win | American Invasion of Iran Officially Commences. Defined as the first embed entering Iran w/o Iranian govt. permission, because our SOF will have already been operating there for some time. | US | 11/10/2005 | 6.13 | 1.20 | 20 CON | 23.90 |
Con
Win | Iran brought before the UN Security Council by United States/Allies for possible sanctions. | World | 10/7/2005 | 3.49 | 1.40 | 1100 CON | 1,540.92 |
Con
Win | Regime change in Syria | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 17.30 | 1.06 | 20 CON | 21.23 |
Pro
Win | Kofi Annan is still U.N. Secretary General | World | 10/7/2005 | 1.03 | 34.26 | 40 PRO | 41.20 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 30 CON | 32.22 |
Con
Win | US announces plans to privatize Fannie Mae | US | 10/7/2005 | 33.07 | 1.03 | 40 CON | 41.25 |
Con
Win | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 50 CON | 61.71 |
Con
Win | Within one year, hard evidence is found that Osama bin Laden is alive and is running Al Qaeda from Pakistan. Due to "diplomatic" reasons, U.S. Armed Forces will be unable to act on this information. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.74 | 1.21 | 1560 CON | 1,889.05 |
Con
Win | Haliburton will be found to have commited overcharging and fraud by Army accountants on no bid contracts for US troop support through subsidiary Brown & Root. | US | 9/22/2005 | 2.42 | 1.71 | 40 CON | 68.27 |
Con
Win | Self styled head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is captured or killed by coalition-led forces by 1st Sept. 2005.
| Iraq | 9/22/2005 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 40 CON | 94.68 |
Con
Win | Multiple, simultaneous shootdowns of commercial aircraft by terrorists. | Terrorism | 9/22/2005 | 8.91 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.32 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans in the US Senate will use the "nuclear" option on judicial nominees. The Democrats will make good on their threat of closing down the government. | US | 9/22/2005 | 4.79 | 1.26 | 20 PRO | 95.72 |
Con
Win | Popular American documentary film maker murdered | US | 9/22/2005 | 62.55 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.32 |
Pro
Lose | The death toll from Katrina will exceed 300 as determined two weeks from now. | US | 9/14/2005 | 1.08 | 14.26 | 200 CON | 2,851.00 |
Pro
Win | Space Shuttle Discovery, currently on mission STS-114 MCC, will land safely in August. | Sci/Tech | 8/23/2005 | 1.00 | 217.10 | 20 PRO | 20.09 |
Con
Win | Chief Justice Rehnquist will announce his retire before August 15. | US | 8/23/2005 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 50 CON | 68.18 |
Con
Win | Israel occupies part of Lebanon | Middle East | 8/23/2005 | 70.85 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.72 |
Con
Win | US will challenge Venezuela to allow access to its country to investigate disappearance of woman from Aruba. | World | 8/10/2005 | 103.76 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | Gasoline prices average above $3.00 per gallon by July 4th, 2005. | US | 8/10/2005 | 3.82 | 1.35 | 50 CON | 67.73 |
Con
Win | President Bush will nominate Alex Kozinski (9th Circuit Court of Appeals, appointed by Ronald Reagan) to replace the retiring Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 8/10/2005 | 16.41 | 1.06 | 30 CON | 31.95 |
Pro
Lose | NASA will launch Space Shuttle Discovery by July 31st. | Sci/Tech | 8/10/2005 | 1.50 | 3.01 | 40 CON | 120.28 |
Con
Win | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 40 CON | 43.02 |
Con
Lose | John Bolton will be confirmed as the next Ambassador to the United Nations. | US | 8/10/2005 | 1.31 | 4.24 | 20 PRO | 26.18 |
Con
Win | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Antonin Scalia to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 8/10/2005 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 1000 CON | 1,724.24 |
Pro
Win | New York City will fail in its bid to win the 2012 Olympics. | World | 7/6/2005 | 1.10 | 10.68 | 10 PRO | 11.03 |
Con
Win | Chief Justice Rehnquist will step down in the next four weeks. | US | 7/6/2005 | 4.74 | 1.27 | 80 CON | 101.40 |
Con
Win | Sharon's government will be toppled and plans to withdraw from Gaza Strip will be scuttled. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 50 CON | 54.76 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will conduct aerial eradication of Afghan poppy fields during the 2005 growing season. | World | 7/6/2005 | 9.97 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.58 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 40 CON | 55.74 |
Con
Win | US invades Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 19.70 | 1.05 | 830 CON | 874.39 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 1400 CON | 1,439.06 |
Con
Win | House of Saud loses power in Saudi Arabia, overthrown by internal forces. | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 10.96 | 1.10 | 60 CON | 66.03 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 20 CON | 21.85 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 920 CON | 1,024.01 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 590 CON | 667.37 |
Pro
Win | Bush nominee Paul Wolfowitz gets approved by World Bank Board as next Bank President. | World | 6/10/2005 | 1.06 | 18.58 | 40 PRO | 42.28 |
Con
Win | Donald Rumsfeld resigns or is otherwise removed from his post as US Secretary of Defense. | US | 5/31/2005 | 2.36 | 1.74 | 200 CON | 347.52 |
Con
Win | France will approve the EU Constitution referendum that will be voted on 5/29. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.58 | 1.63 | 30 CON | 48.96 |
Con
Win | Aerial Chemical or Biological attack on Israel via Syria / Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 26.89 | 1.04 | 30 CON | 31.16 |
Pro
Lose | Yassir Arafat dies, paving the way for a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 10 CON | 25.97 |
Con
Win | Australian troops will be specifically targeted within the next three months | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 34.71 | 1.03 | 80 CON | 82.37 |
Con
Win | Kurd vs. Sunni vs. Shiite civil war explodes in Iraq. US troops caught in middle. | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 2.84 | 1.54 | 50 CON | 77.17 |
Pro
Win | The Vatican will have to appoint a new Pope. | World | 4/19/2005 | 1.22 | 5.51 | 40 PRO | 48.86 |
Con
Win | The Next Pope Will Be From Latin America | General | 4/19/2005 | 3.16 | 1.46 | 40 CON | 58.51 |
Con
Win | Next Pope will take the name Pius XIII. | General | 4/19/2005 | 11.50 | 1.10 | 30 CON | 32.86 |
Pro
Win | Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger is chosen to replace John Paul II as Pope | General | 4/19/2005 | 4.05 | 1.33 | 500 PRO | 2,023.68 |
Con
Win | A civil war breaks out in Lebanon with Sunni-Druze-Maronites fighting a Hizbullah-Palestinian alliance. Syria will not interfere, but will provide Hizbulla/PLO with arms and intelligence | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 14.49 | 1.07 | 1800 CON | 1,933.45 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 80 CON | 80.96 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.49 |
Con
Win | Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term. | US | 4/17/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 20 CON | 30.23 |
Con
Win | China invades Taiwan by Spring of 2005 to prevent it from becoming independent. | China | 4/17/2005 | 11.11 | 1.10 | 40 CON | 43.96 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in Italy or against a major Italian target abroad. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 2.43 | 1.70 | 40 CON | 68.07 |
Con
Win | US Army adopts 6.8mm round for its new M-8 assault rifle. Heavier round favored because it is deadlier than 5.56mm round. | US | 4/17/2005 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 550 CON | 724.93 |
Con
Lose | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 20 PRO | 2,264.89 |
Con
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be un-cancelled. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Con
Win | Israel-Palestine cease-fire collapses within one month. | Middle East | 3/15/2005 | 2.34 | 1.74 | 50 CON | 87.22 |
Pro
Win | Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005 | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.08 | 12.86 | 20 PRO | 21.69 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 50 PRO | 66.28 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi elections occur on January 30, 2005 as scheduled with the majority of eligible Iraqis participating. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 20 PRO | 27.59 |
Con
Win | The UN will declare the Iraqi elections invalid and illegitimate | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 2.74 | 1.58 | 50 CON | 78.80 |
Con
Lose | December 2004 COMEX gold settles at/above $436.50. | World | 1/30/2005 | 1.09 | 11.55 | 200 PRO | 218.96 |
Con
Win | US Cancels F-22 fighter. | US | 1/30/2005 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 20 CON | 23.38 |
Con
Win | EU ends the Ukraine election dispute. | Russia | 1/30/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 30 CON | 30.00 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 10 PRO | 10.19 |
Con
Win | EU launches sanctions on the Ukraine govt over the continuing electoral standoff there. EU refrains from referring the issue to the United Nations. | Europe | 1/4/2005 | 23.42 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.78 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 40 CON | 44.86 |
Con
Win | Syrians withdraw 1/2 of troops from Lebanon, emphasis on troops in the northern part of the country but leave significant troop concentrations near Beirut | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.19 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 80 PRO | 82.36 |
Con
Win | In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection. | US | 1/4/2005 | 6.56 | 1.18 | 100 CON | 117.98 |
Con
Win | Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons will be used in a terrorist attack in Aisa, Europe or North America before the new year. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 5.84 | 1.21 | 20 CON | 24.13 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 40 CON | 49.99 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 40 CON | 43.28 |
Con
Win | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 110 CON | 144.96 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 10 PRO | 11.52 |
Con
Win | Hijacking of oil supertanker ship, then sailed into major US port and blown up causing environmental disaster. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 35.40 | 1.03 | 80 CON | 82.33 |
Con
Win | National elections in Iraq | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.76 | 1.57 | 50 CON | 78.49 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.80 |
Con
Win | Major Islamic terrorist attack attempted in Australia in the fortnight immediately before the Federal Election. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 7.44 | 1.16 | 740 CON | 854.87 |
Con
Win | Revolution in Iran | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 150 CON | 265.47 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 60.03 |
Con
Win | Israel launches a pre-emptive airstrike against Iran's nuclear weapons production facilities. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 20 CON | 34.86 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 150 CON | 160.01 |
Con
Win | Terririst attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 20.08 | 1.05 | 50 CON | 52.62 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 30 CON | 30.16 |
Con
Win | Islamic Terrorists use a nuclear (including dirty bombs), biological or chemical weapon against the west, on any scale. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 260 CON | 349.60 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 50 CON | 55.94 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 40 CON | 42.06 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.35 |
Con
Win | Scott Peterson will NOT receive the death penalty for murdering his wife and unborn child. | US | 12/22/2004 | 9.34 | 1.12 | 30 CON | 33.60 |
Con
Win | Another hurricane (Category 1 or higher) will strike Florida this hurricane season. | US | 12/6/2004 | 44.04 | 1.02 | 30 CON | 30.70 |
Con
Win | Turkey will be accepted into the EU | World | 12/6/2004 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 230 CON | 254.81 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 20 PRO | 20.28 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 60 CON | 60.58 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean financial and civil meltdown causes South African intervention to rectify. Mugabe flees to third country to avoid trail for crimes against humanity. | World | 12/6/2004 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 160 CON | 172.40 |
Con
Win | Bush names brother and Florida governor Jeb Bush to replace John Ashcroft as U.S. Attorney General. | US | 11/11/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.00 |
Con
Win | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 680 CON | 1,310.10 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.02 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 80 CON | 87.48 |
Pro
Lose | Sinclair Broadcasting Group, caving in to pressure, will NOT air anti-Kerry documentary. | US | 11/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.37 | 20 CON | 27.31 |
Con
Win | Taiwan acquires the Ticonderoga-class CGs the U.S. Navy is retiring. | China | 11/3/2004 | 5.02 | 1.25 | 20 CON | 24.98 |
Con
Win | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 90 CON | 233.70 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 20 PRO | 23.08 |
Pro
Lose | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 60 CON | 117.83 |
Pro
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will hit $53 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 1.04 | 25.17 | 10 PRO | 10.41 |
Pro
Win | Whoever wins Florida wins the election | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.09 | 11.61 | 120 PRO | 131.31 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 10 CON | 12.12 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.45 | 1.29 | 20 CON | 25.80 |
Con
Win | The percentage difference between Bush and Kerry in the Florida vote count will be less than 1%. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.37 | 1.30 | 20 CON | 25.93 |
Pro
Win | President Bush wins reelection. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 30 PRO | 40.21 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 40 CON | 48.58 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 20 CON | 21.54 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 20 CON | 25.00 |
Pro
Win | Bush reelected in November 2 | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 50 PRO | 81.94 |
Con
Lose | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 40 PRO | 62.49 |
Pro
Win | President Bush is reelected and receives more than 50% of the Popular vote. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 20 PRO | 33.84 |
Pro
Win | Republicans maintain control of Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.11 | 10.03 | 10 PRO | 11.11 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will reach $60 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | US | 11/3/2004 | 8.22 | 1.14 | 10 CON | 11.39 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.47 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 30 CON | 30.59 |
Con
Win | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 20 CON | 20.92 |
Con
Win | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 120 CON | 202.33 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden is proven captured or killed before the November elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 5.39 | 1.23 | 80 CON | 98.24 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 80 CON | 105.50 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 30 CON | 32.61 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 10 CON | 12.76 |
Con
Win | Iraqi WMD stockpiles located - in Syria/Bekaa Valley | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 2.77 | 1.56 | 30 CON | 46.93 |
Con
Lose | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 20 PRO | 125.94 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in the United States or against a major American target abroad. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 30 CON | 100.22 |
Con
Win | Responsibility for the Abhu Ghraib incident will be charged to an officer with rank lower than Lt. Colonel. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 20 CON | 34.80 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden killed or captured right in time for US elections. | US | 10/16/2004 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 40 CON | 73.21 |
Con
Win | Hamid Karzai is assassinated before the Afghan elections. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 17.85 | 1.06 | 30 CON | 31.78 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 30 CON | 33.19 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.34 |
Con
Win | North Korea is caught proliferating nuclear materials. | World | 10/3/2004 | 10.23 | 1.11 | 20 CON | 22.17 |
Con
Win | Major al-Qaeda attack in Europe. | Europe | 10/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.36 | 20 CON | 27.29 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers finish above .500. | Sports | 10/1/2004 | 44.02 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.46 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.42 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 50 CON | 58.38 |
Con
Win | Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.63 | 1.04 | 40 CON | 41.69 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.14 |
Con
Win | Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by Islamists in Pakistan. | World | 10/1/2004 | 15.38 | 1.07 | 50 CON | 53.48 |
Con
Win | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 70 CON | 81.93 |
Con
Win | Bush campaign files lawsuit for collusion between Kerry campaign and MoveOn.org. | US | 9/15/2004 | 207.47 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.10 |
Con
Win | Imam Ali shrine complex is raided succesfully, but major damage occurs to the shrine; thus, sparking a mass Shia upraising. | Iraq | 9/15/2004 | 91.36 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.22 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 140 CON | 156.61 |
Con
Win | WMD attack against London. | Terrorism | 9/7/2004 | 8.39 | 1.14 | 100 CON | 113.53 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney announces that he will not seek the Vice-Presidency in 2004. | US | 9/3/2004 | 3.19 | 1.46 | 80 CON | 116.52 |
Con
Win | Russian authorities diffuse "school hostage crisis" without civlian casualties | Terrorism | 9/3/2004 | 16.25 | 1.07 | 20 CON | 21.31 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack somewhere in the United States on September 2nd the day President Bush gives his speech at the RNC. | Terrorism | 9/2/2004 | 5.65 | 1.22 | 110 CON | 133.68 |
Con
Lose | Peace efforts in Najaf fail and the Imam Ali shrine complex is raided to evict Muqtada al Sadr and his army. | Iraq | 9/1/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 10 PRO | 40.71 |
Pro
Win | Iran is found to be actively supporting sabotage and/or terrorism within Iraq. | Iraq | 8/30/2004 | 1.08 | 13.48 | 20 PRO | 21.60 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack in Greece by outside (non-Greek) group(s) during the Olympic Games. | Terrorism | 8/30/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 120 CON | 234.89 |
Con
Win | Bob Graham will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 4.95 | 1.25 | 20 CON | 25.06 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.44 | 1.23 | 10 CON | 12.25 |
Con
Win | Tom Vilsack will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 10 CON | 15.31 |
Con
Win | Wesley Clark will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.47 | 1.22 | 20 CON | 24.47 |
Con
Win | John McCain will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Evan Bayh will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 17.60 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.60 |
Con
Win | Richard Gephardt will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 10 CON | 16.96 |
Con
Win | 9/11 commission explicitly blames Bush | US | 7/23/2004 | 14.74 | 1.07 | 80 CON | 85.82 |
Con
Win | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 7/14/2004 | 6.05 | 1.20 | 20 CON | 23.96 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden captured | Terrorism | 6/30/2004 | 1.70 | 2.44 | 40 CON | 97.41 |
Con
Win | Major terrorist attack on Montreal public rail system prior to 06/28/04 Canadian General elections. | Terrorism | 6/29/2004 | 59.46 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.34 |
Pro
Win | Oil price rises above $44 | US | 6/1/2004 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 20 PRO | 30.90 |
Con
Win | Civil war erupts in Iraq. Shiites, Sunnites, Kurds attack Coalitian Forces and increasingly also each other. | Iraq | 6/1/2004 | 6.35 | 1.19 | 50 CON | 59.34 |
Con
Win | Spain decides not to appear like they are intimidated by al Qaeda and keep their troops in Iraq. | Terrorism | 6/1/2004 | 6.38 | 1.19 | 150 CON | 177.89 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 6/1/2004 | 88.40 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.57 |
Con
Win | Highly sophisticated trojan virus program unleashed on the internet, more devastating than ever seen, variants plague internet for months. | Sci/Tech | 5/1/2004 | 8.96 | 1.13 | 70 CON | 78.79 |
Con
Win | Hamas stages a terror attack against Americans in revenge for their leaders being killed by the Israelis. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 25.08 | 1.04 | 30 CON | 31.25 |
Con
Lose | Major Hamas attack against Israeli civilians, killing at least a hundred people. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 10 PRO | 145.50 |
Con
Win | Falluja, Iraq declared pacified by April 15. | Middle East | 4/15/2004 | 10.78 | 1.10 | 100 CON | 110.23 |
Con
Win | A definitive link is made between Al Quaeda and the ETA with regard to the bombings in Madrid | Terrorism | 4/9/2004 | 6.08 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 59.84 |
