| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | A party to the Democratic partys nomination process files a law suit seeking to modifie or block the modification of the rules. | US | 11/1/2009 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 10 CON | 19.62 |
Con
Win | Israeli-Iranian Conflict | Middle East | 9/12/2009 | 10.85 | 1.10 | 5 CON | 5.51 |
Con
Win | Korea loses it internally, and a civil war breaks out to determine who controls the country. | China | 9/1/2009 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 10 CON | 12.85 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong Il will be replaced by a Pro- Chinese "North Korean" Government | China | 7/1/2009 | 28.16 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.37 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies. | General | 6/30/2009 | 5.21 | 1.24 | 10 CON | 12.37 |
Con
Win | After six months, President Obama still will not have filled his Cabinet (Dept Secretaries, NSA, WH CoS). | US | 6/21/2009 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 10 CON | 18.78 |
Con
Win | A major terrorist attack on US soil within 180 days of Obama Inauguration | Terrorism | 6/20/2009 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 10 CON | 16.67 |
Con
Win | Prior to Iranian election, low-budget Straight of Hormuz incident created by Iranian RG elements to prop oil prices, help Ahmadinejads poll #s. | Middle East | 6/9/2009 | 6.40 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.85 |
Con
Win | President Obama normalizes relations with Cuba. | US | 5/2/2009 | 4.27 | 1.31 | 10 CON | 13.06 |
Con
Win | A nuclear attack will be carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran against the State of Israel. | Terrorism | 4/1/2009 | 31.36 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.33 |
Pro
Win | Israel election Feb. 10.
Likud wins and forms goverment. | Middle East | 3/27/2009 | 1.08 | 13.22 | 5 PRO | 5.41 |
Pro
Win | Iran will not use nukes on Israel. | Middle East | 3/20/2009 | 1.23 | 5.36 | 5 PRO | 6.15 |
Pro
Win | Benjamin Netanyahu elected next Israeli Prime Minister | Middle East | 2/23/2009 | 1.35 | 3.84 | 5 PRO | 6.76 |
Con
Win | The United States or Israel will destroy Iran''s nuclear facilities before 2/1/09 driving oil on the spot market over $200. a barrel. | Middle East | 2/1/2009 | 20.75 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.51 |
Con
Win | USA or Israel will bomb Iran's Nukes | Iraq | 1/1/2009 | 1.85 | 2.17 | 10 CON | 21.72 |
Con
Lose | In about 2 years Chavez will begin border skirmishes with one of Venezuela's neighbours (Guyana, Colombia or Brazil) as a way of exercising his "bolivarian forces". | World | 1/1/2009 | 2.29 | 1.77 | 10 PRO | 22.92 |
Con
Win | Arab nations will initiate mutual discussion on the subject of the eventual formation of an Arab federal union(perhaps AU). | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 5.80 | 1.21 | 20 CON | 24.17 |
Con
Win | The Iranian government dominates Iraq since it will be a nuclear power and Iranian agents or sympathizers are elected to public office and institute pro -Iranian policies. | China | 1/1/2009 | 7.25 | 1.16 | 10 CON | 11.60 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro overthrown in coup d''etat U.S. blamed | World | 1/1/2009 | 9.60 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.16 |
Con
Win | The Chinese Navy will lose a warship or submarine due to a major accident by 12/31/2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 10.57 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.05 |
Pro
Win | Rafale fighter will have secured no foreign purchase contract(s) prior 01-Jan-2008 | Europe | 1/1/2009 | 1.20 | 5.92 | 5 PRO | 6.02 |
Con
Win | China will have a fixed-wing aircraft carrier operational by the end of 2008 | China | 1/1/2009 | 206.00 | 1.00 | 20 CON | 20.10 |
Con
Lose | The United States of America and Islamic republic of Iran acheave a diplomatic brake through in 2008. | Middle East | 1/1/2009 | 8.37 | 1.14 | 10 PRO | 83.68 |
Con
Win | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 10 CON | 13.46 |
Con
Win | Bush suspends Presidential elections / Martial law declared. | US | 12/19/2008 | 142.86 | 1.01 | 20 CON | 20.14 |
Con
Win | Boeing will successfully challenge the KC-X contract awarded to Northrop-Grumman/Airbus. | US | 12/9/2008 | 3.77 | 1.36 | 5 CON | 6.81 |
Con
Win | Srnator Clinton will cry in public, on-camera, at least once, before the 2008 elections are over. Crying prior to super-Tuesday 2008 does not count. | US | 11/8/2008 | 2.48 | 1.67 | 10 CON | 16.74 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will vote to re-instate a military draft before the 2008 elections | US | 11/5/2008 | 35.46 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.29 |
Con
Win | Republican candidate wins the white House/Presidency in 2008 election. | US | 11/5/2008 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 10 CON | 16.15 |
Con
Lose | McCain will be elected president of the United States | US | 11/5/2008 | 1.79 | 2.27 | 10 PRO | 17.90 |
Con
Win | Iran will attack Iraq, during the same time as America is drawing down troops from Iraq. | Middle East | 10/31/2008 | 64.69 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.08 |
Con
Win | The city of Atlanta, Georgia will run out of drinking water in 2008 | US | 10/31/2008 | 103.50 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.05 |
Con
Win | Raul Castro captured in Cuba and brought to the U.S. on outstanding drug smuggling warrants | World | 10/15/2008 | 13.00 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.83 |
Con
Win | Mike Huckabee will be elected President of the United States | US | 9/27/2008 | 20.74 | 1.05 | 5 CON | 5.25 |
Pro
Win | New England Patriots will NOT go undefeated in the regular season in 2008. | Sports | 9/21/2008 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 PRO | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination for President | US | 9/9/2008 | 77.83 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.07 |
Con
Lose | Pollution mars Bejing Olympic games | China | 8/31/2008 | 1.11 | 9.77 | 10 PRO | 11.14 |
Con
Lose | The 2008 Democratic Presidential ticket will be either Obama / Clinton or Clinton / Obama | US | 8/31/2008 | 183.00 | 1.01 | 5 PRO | 915.00 |
Pro
Win | Obama is nominated as the Democratic candidate for President | US | 8/31/2008 | 1.33 | 4.00 | 10 PRO | 13.34 |
Con
Lose | Baharain King His Majesty Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be attacked and badly hurt in veciuos attack, forcing him to move into exille. | Middle East | 8/31/2008 | 27.37 | 1.04 | 20 PRO | 547.32 |
Con
Win | Sen. Obama will hint at, or designate, a woman running mate to secure his nomination by the democratic party | US | 8/15/2008 | 13.44 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.80 |
Con
Win | NYC Mayor Michael Bloomburg becomes Obama''s running mate. | US | 8/1/2008 | 5.56 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.19 |
Pro
Lose | The US Congress will either overturn the USAF tanker in its entirely or they will force the USAF to split the award between Northrop and Boeing. | US | 7/17/2008 | 1.21 | 5.70 | 5 CON | 28.51 |
Con
Win | There will be another major terrorist attack successfully carried out in the United States. | Terrorism | 7/1/2008 | 10.00 | 1.11 | 5 CON | 5.56 |
Con
Lose | Iranian backed Shiites take over Iraq | Iraq | 6/30/2008 | 13.92 | 1.08 | 10 PRO | 139.24 |
Con
Win | Israel will declare its intention to withdraw from, at least, 80% of territories it occupied in 1967 six day war. | Middle East | 6/5/2008 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 10 CON | 13.41 |
Con
Lose | India will select either the F-16 or F/A-18 as its new combat aircraft | World | 6/3/2008 | 3.55 | 1.39 | 5 PRO | 17.76 |
Con
Lose | Fidel Castro dies | World | 6/3/2008 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 5 PRO | 20.69 |
Con
Win | Simba Makoni, ex-Zimbabwean Finance minister, will be assassinated before the General Elections in March | World | 3/30/2008 | 62.10 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.16 |
Pro
Lose | Boeing will have firm orders for at least 650 787 Dreamliners (all models) before the delivery of the first aircraft in May 2008. | Sci/Tech | 3/8/2008 | 1.01 | 79.00 | 5 CON | 395.00 |
Con
Lose | The New England patriots win the Super Bowl and complete a perfect 19-0 season. | Sports | 2/3/2008 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 10 PRO | 25.65 |
Pro
Lose | Gov. Mike Huckabee wins Iowa Republican Presedencail caucuse. | US | 1/14/2008 | 1.03 | 30.40 | 5 CON | 152.00 |
Con
Win | Indianapolis Colts play in the 2007 season Super Bowl. | US | 1/14/2008 | 42.70 | 1.02 | 5 CON | 5.12 |
Con
Lose | NASA will retire a Space Shuttle Orbiter by the end of 2007. | Sci/Tech | 1/12/2008 | 6.04 | 1.20 | 20 PRO | 120.76 |
Pro
Win | The number of civilians killed in Iraq in 2007 will be higher than 2006 | Iraq | 1/11/2008 | 1.29 | 4.47 | 10 PRO | 12.88 |
Pro
Lose | The number of US military personel killed in the Middle East will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | Middle East | 1/11/2008 | 1.53 | 2.87 | 20 CON | 57.50 |
Con
Win | Ron Paul stuns Republican opponents by winning New Hampshire Primary | General | 1/11/2008 | 13.65 | 1.08 | 5 CON | 5.40 |
Pro
Lose | The number of Western military personel killed in the Afghanistan will be higher in 2007 than in 2006. | China | 1/11/2008 | 1.54 | 2.85 | 20 CON | 56.95 |
Pro
Win | Barack Obama wins the Iowa Democratic Caucus | US | 1/10/2008 | 1.32 | 4.10 | 5 PRO | 6.61 |
Con
Win | Governor Doyle of Wisconsin will be indicted. | US | 1/8/2008 | 7.51 | 1.15 | 5 CON | 5.77 |
Pro
Win | Mike Nifong, the prosecutor in the Duke rape case, will be disbarred. | US | 1/8/2008 | 1.10 | 10.89 | 10 PRO | 11.01 |
Con
Lose | Not a single mile of federally financed hard-fence (not virtual) will be built on the Mexican border in 2007. | US | 1/8/2008 | 1.26 | 4.87 | 5 PRO | 6.29 |
Con
Win | American will station the majority of its troops in the Kurdish North of Iraq and all ow the Shi'a and Sunnis fight it out. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 5 CON | 5.95 |
Con
Win | A Najif type battle occurs in Basra when Muqata Al-Sadar again defies the iraqi government. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 10 CON | 11.29 |
Con
Win | Iraq assumes responsibility for its own security. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 13.40 | 1.08 | 20 CON | 21.61 |
Con
Win | Iran will use a nuclear weapon against Israel within the next year. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 1,471.50 | 1.00 | 25 CON | 25.02 |
Con
Win | The national median home value will rise from 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2007 | US | 1/8/2008 | 4.67 | 1.27 | 10 CON | 12.72 |
Con
Win | America will succeed in creating a stable democratic Iraq. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 4.46 | 1.29 | 10 CON | 12.89 |
Con
Lose | Bird flu threat leads to a cull of poultry in the continental U.S., exceeding 1,000 count. | US | 1/8/2008 | 6.69 | 1.18 | 10 PRO | 66.89 |
Con
Lose | Turkey will carry out a major offensive against the PKK, and cross the border into Iraq by end of August. | Iraq | 12/9/2007 | 3.42 | 1.41 | 5 PRO | 17.09 |
Con
Lose | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2007 hurricane season. | US | 12/4/2007 | 2.60 | 1.63 | 10 PRO | 25.96 |
Con
Win | US fighters scramble to intercept Russian bombers approaching CONUS | Russia | 12/4/2007 | 8.04 | 1.14 | 5 CON | 5.71 |
Con
Win | The United States will deploy American soldiers to the Darfur region of Sudan, as part of a UN approved peacekeeping force. | World | 12/4/2007 | 130.35 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.04 |
Con
Win | Democrats In Congress Propose Federally Mandated Licensing Of the Possession Of All Handguns Together With Mandated Fees. | US | 11/29/2007 | 9.49 | 1.12 | 5 CON | 5.59 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Select A Successor And Replace Cheney With That Successor. | US | 11/29/2007 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Bush Will Conduct a White House Makeover. Conservatives Purged. Cheney And At Least Rice Will Be Gone To Purchase Peace With Democrats. | US | 11/29/2007 | 61.82 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.16 |
Con
Lose | Any military aircraft of any nation shot down deliberately in air-to-air combat by any other nation. | World | 11/29/2007 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 5 PRO | 39.37 |
Con
Win | Turkish F16 will be shot down by Greek Air Force. | Europe | 11/29/2007 | 17.14 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.62 |
Con
Lose | Civilian war deaths in Lebanon will exceed civil war deaths in Israel by at least a 10:1 ratio at 2006 year end (BBC news and Red Cross figures to be used in case of dispute). | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 1.18 | 6.55 | 10 PRO | 11.80 |
Con
Win | John Bolton keeps his post as US Ambassabor to the United Nations. | US | 8/6/2007 | 15.95 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.67 |
Con
Lose | Segolene Royal will be elected President of France. | Europe | 8/6/2007 | 4.84 | 1.26 | 10 PRO | 48.42 |
Pro
Win | WTI Crude Oil will be trading at or between $55.00-$60.00 (USD) a barrel by 01/31/07. | World | 8/6/2007 | 3.48 | 1.40 | 20 PRO | 69.51 |
Con
Lose | Japan will approve a change in it's Constitution to allow for pre-emptive strikes. | World | 8/6/2007 | 3.26 | 1.44 | 10 PRO | 32.58 |
Con
Lose | Osama Bin Laden killed, body produced. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 5.20 | 1.24 | 10 PRO | 51.97 |
Con
Lose | General Motors will file for bankruptcy. | US | 8/6/2007 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 30 PRO | 70.04 |
Con
Win | The 15 UK servicemen siezed by Iran in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, will still be held as of 4/10/07. | World | 8/6/2007 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 10 CON | 17.21 |
Con
Lose | Hezbollah will be strengthened by the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 9.79 | 1.11 | 20 PRO | 195.78 |
Pro
Win | Hugo Chavez will be re-elected president of Venezuela on December 3rd | World | 1/18/2007 | 1.33 | 4.03 | 5 PRO | 6.65 |
Pro
Lose | Former Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega will win the November presidential election in Nicaragua. | World | 1/18/2007 | 1.00 | 2,032.00 | 1 CON | 2,032.00 |
Pro
Win | Sen. Joe Lieberman wins his Senate seat as an Independent candidate from Conn. | US | 1/18/2007 | 1.08 | 13.02 | 10 PRO | 10.83 |
Con
Win | Taiwan test fires there Hsiung Feng III missle creating further tension with China | China | 1/18/2007 | 7.13 | 1.16 | 20 CON | 23.27 |
Con
Win | Israel will still be fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon in December, 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.52 | 2.91 | 10 CON | 29.08 |
Pro
Lose | Israel's incursion into Gaza will not stop the Qassam rocket attacks | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 3.02 | 1.50 | 10 CON | 14.95 |
Con
Win | Ehud Olmert will lose his position as Israeli
Prime Minister not later than December 31, 2006. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 3.45 | 1.41 | 20 CON | 28.18 |
Con
Lose | US and/or Iraqi Forces engage in large scale operations against the Muqtada Al Sadr's Mehdi miltia anywhere within Iraq. | Iraq | 1/18/2007 | 3.69 | 1.37 | 20 PRO | 73.83 |
Con
Lose | The Repubilcans lose the Senate. | US | 1/18/2007 | 11.08 | 1.10 | 20 PRO | 221.60 |
Con
Lose | Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 1.78 | 2.27 | 30 PRO | 53.53 |
Con
Lose | 1st Terrorist Nuke Will Be Of Pakistani Origin -designed or built there, or uses Pakistani fissionables. Can be a "dirty" device if it uses a chain reaction, or be captured w/o going off. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 4.28 | 1.30 | 20 PRO | 85.59 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Iraq. | US | 1/18/2007 | 24.87 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.19 |
Con
Lose | Saddam WMD found before 12/31/06 | Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 79.00 | 1.01 | 1 PRO | 79.00 |
Con
Win | Castro dead. | World | 1/18/2007 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 20 CON | 35.33 |
Con
Win | America will take aggressive military action against Iran before the November 7th election as "October Surprise". | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 13.44 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.02 |
Con
Lose | Results of 2006 mid-term elections - Republicans take losses but still retain control of both House and Senate. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 25 PRO | 43.24 |
Con
Win | Rove's October Surprise - Scenario 1: Permanent tax cuts. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5 CON | 5.00 |
Con
Lose | Jihadis attempt to assassinate Pope Benedict during his upcoming visit to Turkey | Terrorism | 12/30/2006 | 6.18 | 1.19 | 5 PRO | 30.88 |
Con
Win | The UN Security Council will impose new sanctions against the Iranian government in response to Iran's threat to resume its uranium enrichment programme.
| Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 17.95 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.59 |
Pro
Lose | At least one house in Congress will change majority party in the Nov. election. | US | 12/30/2006 | 1.44 | 3.30 | 20 CON | 65.94 |
Con
Lose | Japan launches missle strikes against North Korea effectively taking out their capabilities to launch additional long range Taepodong II missles | China | 12/30/2006 | 97.08 | 1.01 | 10 PRO | 970.77 |
Con
Lose | The three U.S. soldiers charged with murder will be convicted and handed over to an Iraqi courts for sentencing. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 67.77 | 1.01 | 10 PRO | 677.67 |
Con
Lose | Israel Will Strike Iranian Nuclear Facilit[ies]y. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.91 | 2.10 | 50 PRO | 95.64 |
Con
Win | The Coup attempt in Thailand will fail | World | 10/21/2006 | 78.10 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.06 |
Pro
Win | The current cease-fire in Uganda (between Uganda's government and the LRA rebels (Lord's Resistance Army) will be extended by both parties beyond the original September 12, 2006 agreement. | World | 10/21/2006 | 1.12 | 9.37 | 5 PRO | 5.60 |
Con
Win | UN troop strength in Lebanon will reach 15,000 by the end of September. | Middle East | 10/21/2006 | 150.81 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.07 |
Con
Win | North Korea defies the International community once more with another test launch of their Taepodong II missle | China | 10/21/2006 | 7.18 | 1.16 | 100 CON | 116.18 |
Con
Lose | I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby will NOT be convicted of any Federal crime associated with the Valerie Plame affair or subsequent Federal investigation. | US | 10/21/2006 | 1.16 | 7.32 | 10 PRO | 11.58 |
Con
Lose | North Korea will launch a nuclear weapon test, proving current rumors of the test, true. | World | 10/21/2006 | 69.10 | 1.01 | 20 PRO | 1,382.00 |
Con
Lose | The United States will attempt to intercept and shoot down North Korea's missile test | World | 10/21/2006 | 24.61 | 1.04 | 10 PRO | 246.13 |
Con
Lose | U.S. Marines enter Beirut to evacuate Americans trapped by current hostilities to Cypres | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 4.91 | 1.26 | 10 PRO | 49.05 |
Con
Win | Israel will succeed in detstroying Hezballahs mobile missiles | Middle East | 8/30/2006 | 71.55 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.14 |
Pro
Win | North Korea will launch its Taepodong-2 missle in defiance of the Inernational community. | World | 7/14/2006 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 50 PRO | 111.24 |
