| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Tom Delay is convicted of consipracy to violate Texas state campaign finance laws | US | 1/1/2009 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 25 CON | 30.33 |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 25 CON | 26.11 |
Con
Win | NATO Seizes Iranian Oil Fields Preliminary to Using Economic Pressure On Iran To Comply With NPT. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 218.96 | 1.00 | 24 CON | 24.11 |
Con
Win | Iraq Reconciliation Deal Package - Saddam Leaves Iraq To Live In Exile | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 13.25 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.08 |
Con
Win | During the next presidential administration, bills will be introduced in the House and Senate that would allow non-natural-born US Citizens to run for President. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 2 CON | 3.81 |
Con
Win | Al qaeda will stage a major attack against an American City, resulting in at least 500 people killed or injured. | Terrorism | 1/18/2007 | 1.75 | 2.34 | 100 CON | 233.63 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney will not be the Vice President of the US at the end of 2006. | US | 1/18/2007 | 9.11 | 1.12 | 20 CON | 22.47 |
Con
Win | The US begins construction of an Isreali style fence along the Mexican-US border. | US | 1/18/2007 | 5.12 | 1.24 | 10 CON | 12.43 |
Con
Lose | The Chicago Cubs will Win the 2006 World Series | Sports | 1/18/2007 | 499.67 | 1.00 | 1 PRO | 499.67 |
Pro
Lose | Crude oil remains above $60.00 a barrel for the next 12 months. | General | 7/14/2006 | 1.84 | 2.19 | 10 CON | 21.85 |
Con
Win | Gold Reaches highest value in recorded history. When Iran announces their non-compliance with demands to stop enriching uranium.
| World | 6/1/2006 | 8.17 | 1.14 | 40 CON | 45.58 |
Con
Win | Chinese government abandons communism, turns to capitalist economy, but retains government leaders and most aspects of govt and laws stay the same (lack of human rights, etc.) | China | 6/1/2006 | 15.43 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.35 |
Con
Win | The United States conducts avowed military operations in an attempt to destroy or delay the Iranian nuclear weapons program. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 3.52 | 1.40 | 50 CON | 69.82 |
Con
Win | Turkey formally accepted into European Union. | Europe | 3/12/2006 | 5.10 | 1.24 | 50 CON | 62.20 |
Con
Win | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 25 CON | 27.86 |
Pro
Lose | The price of a barrel of oil will top $70 USD. | World | 1/24/2006 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 20 CON | 41.12 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein is featured in a Cheetos or Doritos commercial. | Iraq | 1/24/2006 | 38.13 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.27 |
Con
Win | Major vote fraud allegations in the Washington and Wisconsin 2004 elections finally produce effective reforms.
| US | 1/24/2006 | 11.57 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.95 |
Con
Win | The House of Representatives will vote to suspend U.S. funding of the United Nations until Kofi Annan resigns. | General | 1/24/2006 | 5.03 | 1.25 | 100 CON | 124.83 |
Con
Win | U.S. invades Baathist Syria from Iraq. | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.44 | 1.29 | 28 CON | 36.15 |
Con
Win | President George Bush's disapproval ratings on the war in Iraq will increase to at least 75%. | General | 11/10/2005 | 8.77 | 1.13 | 30 CON | 33.86 |
Con
Win | American Invasion of Iran Officially Commences. Defined as the first embed entering Iran w/o Iranian govt. permission, because our SOF will have already been operating there for some time. | US | 11/10/2005 | 6.13 | 1.20 | 18 CON | 21.51 |
Con
Win | Popular American documentary film maker murdered | US | 9/22/2005 | 62.55 | 1.02 | 10 CON | 10.16 |
Con
Win | Chief Justice Rehnquist will announce his retire before August 15. | US | 8/23/2005 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 50 CON | 68.18 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food corruption investigations, Kofi Anan will resign as Sectretary-General of the United Nations. | Iraq | 8/10/2005 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 10 CON | 16.96 |
Con
Win | Major Anthrax attack on the U.S. If delivered through the mail, will shut down the Postal Service for at least weeks, and cripple it for at least months. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 11.84 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.92 |
Con
Win | A supertanker (VLCC) is sunk by Islamic terrorists in the Strait of Malacca. | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 9.85 | 1.11 | 30 CON | 33.39 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 11 CON | 12.44 |
Con
Win | US Naval blockaid of Iran enforcing UN resolution that Iran must halt nuclear weapons development activities. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 3.11 | 1.47 | 25 CON | 36.85 |
Con
Lose | Successful Al'Qaeda strike in France. | Terrorism | 5/31/2005 | 2.68 | 1.60 | 10 PRO | 26.77 |
Con
Win | Kurd vs. Sunni vs. Shiite civil war explodes in Iraq. US troops caught in middle. | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 2.84 | 1.54 | 20 CON | 30.87 |
Con
Win | Will Chile grant Bolivia the access to the Pacific that they are asking for. | World | 4/20/2005 | 110.63 | 1.01 | 3 CON | 3.03 |
Con
Win | The next Pope will be from a country of the former East Block(inc. old Soviet Union). | General | 4/19/2005 | 13.47 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 27.01 |
Pro
Lose | The Montreal Expos do NOT move to Washington D.C. in 2005. | Sports | 4/17/2005 | 6.99 | 1.17 | 68 CON | 79.34 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in Italy or against a major Italian target abroad. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 2.43 | 1.70 | 18 PRO | 43.65 |
Con
Win | Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 9.55 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.17 |
Con
Win | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.09 |
Con
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be un-cancelled. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100 CON | 100.00 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 250 CON | 259.09 |
Con
Win | The U.S. (with E.U. acquiescence) bombs targets relating to the Iranian nuclear program. | Middle East | 2/20/2005 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 3 CON | 3.57 |
Con
Lose | In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection. | US | 1/4/2005 | 6.56 | 1.18 | 15 PRO | 98.41 |
Pro
Win | A Mid Major, either Boise State, Fresno State, Louisville or Utah will rise to #6 and receive a BCS bowl bid. | Sports | 1/4/2005 | 1.10 | 10.53 | 255 PRO | 281.75 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 50 CON | 62.49 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 125 PRO | 144.00 |
Con
Win | Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will be assassinated before the beginning of next year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 10 CON | 15.11 |
Con
Win | National elections in Iraq | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.76 | 1.57 | 40 CON | 62.79 |
Con
Win | Breakaway republic from Indonesia | World | 1/4/2005 | 45.89 | 1.02 | 15 CON | 15.33 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.18 |
Con
Win | Revolution in Iran | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 57 CON | 100.88 |
Con
Win | UN imposes trade sanctions on Iran for failure to cooperate with IAE Comission. | Middle East | 1/4/2005 | 6.89 | 1.17 | 5 CON | 5.85 |
Con
Win | Islamic radicals stage revolution in Pakistan and take over government. | World | 1/4/2005 | 15.99 | 1.07 | 15 CON | 16.00 |
Con
Win | Terririst attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 20.08 | 1.05 | 15 CON | 15.79 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.05 |
Con
Lose | Islamic Terrorists use a nuclear (including dirty bombs), biological or chemical weapon against the west, on any scale. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 20 PRO | 78.04 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 10 CON | 11.19 |
Con
Win | Italy will be attacked by Al Masry brigades and will leave Iraq. | Terrorism | 12/30/2004 | 98.59 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 200 CON | 210.30 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.69 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 670 CON | 676.50 |
Con
Win | The AUC demobilization collapses, leading to a tacit alliance between the AUC and the Colombian government against FARC. | World | 12/6/2004 | 14.99 | 1.07 | 5 CON | 5.36 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean financial and civil meltdown causes South African intervention to rectify. Mugabe flees to third country to avoid trail for crimes against humanity. | World | 12/6/2004 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 35 CON | 37.71 |
Con
Lose | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 20 PRO | 32.53 |
Con
Win | 2004 Election Results: Bush wins second term, Republicans lose majority in Senate but pick up at least one more vote in House of Representatives | US | 11/3/2004 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 115 CON | 131.90 |
Con
Win | Republicans pick up at least 5 seats in the US senate from the November 2nd, 2004 elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 25 CON | 30.36 |
Con
Lose | By 8pm EDT on Wednesday, November 3rd, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 100 PRO | 237.90 |
Con
Win | In response to an al Qaeda catastrophic act of terrorism on the US homeland, President George Bush will nuke bin Laden's suspected location (the border of Afghanistan/Pakistan). | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.72 | 1.21 | 110 CON | 133.28 |
Con
Lose | John Kerry wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.45 | 1.29 | 100 PRO | 444.71 |
Pro
Lose | President Bush wins reelection. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 50 CON | 196.92 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 800 CON | 971.55 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 20 CON | 25.00 |
Pro
Lose | Bush reelected in November 2 | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 75 CON | 192.41 |
Con
Win | Democrats demand recounts of 2004 Presidential election ballots in several states. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 117 CON | 325.09 |
Pro
Lose | President Bush is reelected and receives more than 50% of the Popular vote. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.69 | 2.45 | 43 CON | 105.16 |
Con
Win | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 200 CON | 221.21 |
Con
Win | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 20 CON | 33.72 |
Con
Win | A major Terrorist attack somewhere in the Midwest in October results in mass casualties and leads Bush to indefinately postpone the 2004 Presidential Election and declares Martial Law | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.14 | 1.32 | 9 CON | 11.87 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 10 CON | 10.87 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 30 CON | 31.17 |
Con
Win | Forged Dan Rather Memos will be shown to have emerged either directly from the Kerry campaign or from a pro-Democrat 527 organization (such as moveon etc.) | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 30 CON | 39.76 |
Con
Win | Iraqi WMD stockpiles located - in Syria/Bekaa Valley | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 2.77 | 1.56 | 25 CON | 39.11 |
Con
Win | Yasser Arafat killed in an IDF attack. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 6.30 | 1.19 | 24 CON | 28.53 |
Pro
Lose | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 100 CON | 145.34 |
Con
Win | The Minnesota Twins win the 2004 American League Championship Series. | Sports | 10/18/2004 | 3.22 | 1.45 | 1000 CON | 1,451.34 |
Con
Win | Rash of wildfires throughout the Rocky Mountain region is connected to an Al'Qaeda or subsidiary; includes discovery/nullification of unexploded incendiary devices. | Terrorism | 10/9/2004 | 10.41 | 1.11 | 30 CON | 33.19 |
Con
Win | A Canadian Team Wins the X-Prize. | Sci/Tech | 10/6/2004 | 25.12 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.41 |
Pro
Win | The X-Prize is won, an attempt to privately launch a shuttle twice within 14 days. | Sci/Tech | 10/4/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 1 PRO | 1.43 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in Europe. | Europe | 10/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.36 | 5 PRO | 18.71 |
Con
Win | For his role in the National Guard memo scandal, Dan Rather resigns or is fired as anchor of the CBS Evening News by the 1st of October. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.37 | 1.04 | 4 CON | 4.17 |
Con
Win | The Milwaukee Brewers finish above .500. | Sports | 10/1/2004 | 44.02 | 1.02 | 120 CON | 122.79 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 19 CON | 22.18 |
Con
Win | Rather admits two documents forged and apologizes on TV. | US | 9/16/2004 | 6.87 | 1.17 | 10 CON | 11.70 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 5 CON | 5.59 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 10 PRO | 12.94 |
Pro
Win | 300 people arrested during Republican National Convention. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.13 | 8.75 | 5 PRO | 5.65 |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney announces that he will not seek the Vice-Presidency in 2004. | US | 9/3/2004 | 3.19 | 1.46 | 18 CON | 26.22 |
Con
Win | Terrorist attack in Greece by outside (non-Greek) group(s) during the Olympic Games. | Terrorism | 8/30/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 14 CON | 27.40 |
Con
Win | American fatalities in Iraq pass 1000.
(For purposes of arbitration, CNN's special report on Coalition Casualties will be used; at this writing that number is 646) | Iraq | 8/29/2004 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 10 CON | 22.62 |
Con
Win | Will the italian government be forced to retreat troops from Iraq by the fall of 2004? | Iraq | 8/15/2004 | 8.88 | 1.13 | 15 CON | 16.90 |
Pro
Lose | Major Chenchen attack in Russia | Russia | 8/1/2004 | 1.77 | 2.30 | 20 CON | 46.02 |
Con
Win | Tom Vilsack will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 10 CON | 15.31 |
Con
Win | Bob Graham will be the Kerry's vice presidential nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 4.95 | 1.25 | 10 CON | 12.53 |
Con
Win | Bill Richardson will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 16.84 | 1.06 | 5 CON | 5.32 |
Con
Win | Wesley Clark will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 5.47 | 1.22 | 10 CON | 12.24 |
Con
Win | Richard Gephardt will be Kerry's vice presidental nominee. | US | 7/25/2004 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 10 CON | 16.96 |
Con
Lose | 9/11 commission explicitly blames Bush | US | 7/23/2004 | 14.74 | 1.07 | 28 PRO | 412.81 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Abu Ghraib scandal, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigns. | US | 6/30/2004 | 26.56 | 1.04 | 122 CON | 126.77 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden captured | Terrorism | 6/30/2004 | 1.70 | 2.44 | 55 CON | 133.93 |
Con
Win | Major terrorist attack on Montreal public rail system prior to 06/28/04 Canadian General elections. | Terrorism | 6/29/2004 | 59.46 | 1.02 | 70 CON | 71.20 |
Con
Win | Hillary announced as a Vice-Presidential running mate in 2004 election. | US | 6/1/2004 | 11.48 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 10.95 |
Pro
Lose | Oil price rises above $44 | US | 6/1/2004 | 1.54 | 2.84 | 5 CON | 14.18 |
Con
Win | Spain decides not to appear like they are intimidated by al Qaeda and keep their troops in Iraq. | Terrorism | 6/1/2004 | 6.38 | 1.19 | 34 CON | 40.32 |
Con
Win | Highly sophisticated trojan virus program unleashed on the internet, more devastating than ever seen, variants plague internet for months. | Sci/Tech | 5/1/2004 | 8.96 | 1.13 | 16 CON | 18.01 |
Con
Win | USA led troops attacks the city of Najaf in Iraq and kill or arrest Al-Sadr. | Iraq | 4/24/2004 | 61.00 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.67 |
Con
Win | Hamas stages a terror attack against Americans in revenge for their leaders being killed by the Israelis. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 25.08 | 1.04 | 5 CON | 5.21 |
Con
Win | Major Hamas attack against Israeli civilians, killing at least a hundred people. | Terrorism | 4/22/2004 | 14.55 | 1.07 | 43 CON | 46.17 |
Con
Win | Falluja, Iraq declared pacified by April 15. | Middle East | 4/15/2004 | 10.78 | 1.10 | 5 CON | 5.51 |
Con
Win | A definitive link is made between Al Quaeda and the ETA with regard to the bombings in Madrid | Terrorism | 4/9/2004 | 6.08 | 1.20 | 5 CON | 5.98 |
Pro
Lose | Insurgent fatalities occur in Iraq. | Iraq | 3/30/2004 | 1.01 | 77.30 | 3 CON | 231.90 |
