| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Lose | Iran will test a nuclear weapon, either openly or without acknowledging it, before 2008 | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 2.70 | 1.59 | 10 PRO | 27.02 |
Con
Lose | Domestic left-wing groups/individuals will attempt to assassinate a major national conservative political figure during the 2nd Bush administration. | US | 1/8/2008 | 2.72 | 1.58 | 150 PRO | 408.73 |
Con
Win | William Jefferson Clinton becomes the next Secretary General of the United Nations. | World | 1/18/2007 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 150 CON | 172.06 |
Con
Lose | A Shia-dominated Iraqi Defense Force that will crush the insurgency utilizing ruthless tactics. The American electorate will look the other way and accept this as acceptable. | Iraq | 6/1/2006 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 100 PRO | 163.70 |
Con
Lose | EU drops arms embargo of the People's Republic of China. | China | 4/13/2006 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 100 PRO | 1,100.00 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 140 CON | 140.99 |
Con
Lose | Fundamentalist Islamic supporters kidnap a local prominent citizien of the USA in the USA and behead him in the USA when their demands are not met. | Terrorism | 3/12/2006 | 8.78 | 1.13 | 50 PRO | 439.16 |
Con
Lose | [Mind You This Is Only A Prediction] There Will Be An Assassination Attempt Made On President George W. Bush. Not By Arab Terrorists But By American Liberal[s]. | US | 1/24/2006 | 3.69 | 1.37 | 50 PRO | 184.58 |
Con
Win | The DJIA will close below 8,500 at least once by 12/31/2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 128.50 | 1.01 | 999 CON | 1,006.84 |
Con
Win | Major vote fraud allegations in the Washington and Wisconsin 2004 elections finally produce effective reforms.
| US | 1/24/2006 | 11.57 | 1.09 | 150 CON | 164.20 |
Con
Win | A terrorist group files suit against the United States of America or an American defense company. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 8.87 | 1.13 | 50 CON | 56.36 |
Con
Lose | Terrorists take the United States to court. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 4.35 | 1.30 | 50 PRO | 217.50 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.18 |
Con
Lose | Major combat operations begin in Iran in 2005 after evidence suggests development of nuclear weapons, and plans to use them against Israeli and/or American interests in Mid-East. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 50 PRO | 90.07 |
Con
Win | USA starts a selective draft. Draft would tap people with desired language, analysis, and tech. skills to fill posts that are not filled by hiring in the US military, CIA, NSA, and/or other US dept | US | 1/24/2006 | 4.41 | 1.29 | 25 CON | 32.33 |
Con
Win | Last US combat troop removed from Afghanistan. | US | 1/24/2006 | 12.86 | 1.08 | 25 CON | 27.11 |
Con
Lose | The US begins covert military strikes against Baathist camps and leaders in Syria. | Terrorism | 12/10/2005 | 1.49 | 3.03 | 100 PRO | 149.34 |
Con
Lose | Iraq Al Qaeda leader Zarqawi is killed or captured prior to the January election. | Iraq | 11/10/2005 | 1.89 | 2.12 | 100 PRO | 189.06 |
Con
Lose | Exchange rate will fall below 7.80 Chinese Renminbi (Yuan) per dollar on or before 30 September 2005
| China | 10/7/2005 | 6.85 | 1.17 | 100 PRO | 685.00 |
Con
Win | Regime change in Syria | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 17.30 | 1.06 | 852 CON | 904.26 |
Con
Win | The EU will lift the arms embargo against China, despite Administration protests. | Europe | 9/22/2005 | 1.60 | 2.68 | 50 CON | 134.01 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans in the US Senate will use the "nuclear" option on judicial nominees. The Democrats will make good on their threat of closing down the government. | US | 9/22/2005 | 4.79 | 1.26 | 250 PRO | 1,196.53 |
Con
Win | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 103 CON | 110.78 |
Con
Win | US invades Iran | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 36.84 | 1.03 | 750 CON | 770.93 |
Con
Win | U.S launches airstrikes on targets in Syria | Middle East | 7/6/2005 | 3.25 | 1.45 | 50 CON | 72.27 |
Con
Win | Reunification of Korea by the ROK, defined as ROK boarder guards/troops on the Yalu following the collapse of North Korea. | World | 7/6/2005 | 8.63 | 1.13 | 200 CON | 226.23 |
Con
Win | US forces in Iraq decline to under 60,000. | Middle East | 6/10/2005 | 4.72 | 1.27 | 172 CON | 218.19 |
Con
Win | Airstrikes by US forces against Iranian targets - excluding cross-border raids aimed at stemming Ansar or 'hot pursuit' scenarios. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.30 |
Con
Win | In the first half of 2005, the President will announce plans to pull most or all U.S. troops out of Iraq. | Iraq | 5/31/2005 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 50 CON | 57.28 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 180 CON | 182.16 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 250 CON | 259.33 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 400 CON | 403.25 |
Con
Win | US Cancels F-22 fighter. | US | 1/30/2005 | 6.92 | 1.17 | 25 CON | 29.23 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.15 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 50 PRO | 51.47 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 99 PRO | 114.04 |
Con
Lose | National elections in Iraq | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.76 | 1.57 | 75 PRO | 206.63 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.80 |
Con
Win | India and Pakistan will make a peace deal over Kashmir by the end of the year | World | 1/4/2005 | 5.98 | 1.20 | 50 CON | 60.03 |
Con
Win | Chechnya granted independence by Russia. | Russia | 1/4/2005 | 186.81 | 1.01 | 75 CON | 75.40 |
Con
Win | Fidel Castro dies, prompting a revolution in Cuba. | World | 1/4/2005 | 9.42 | 1.12 | 200 CON | 223.75 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 50 PRO | 50.69 |
Con
Win | French Government publicly apologises to world for pocketing Saddams cash in exchange for votes at UN | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 104.08 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.97 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 25 CON | 27.34 |
Pro
Win | Republicans gain at least two seats (For a total of 53+) in the Senate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 150 PRO | 173.14 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 100 CON | 121.44 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 50 CON | 62.49 |
Con
Win | George Bush will be assassinated before election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 43.47 | 1.02 | 86 CON | 88.02 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.46 |
Con
Lose | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 5 PRO | 12.29 |
Con
Lose | AlQaeda will attempt a major attack on US soil within a week of the US elections, in order to influence electoral outcome, as well as to grab headlines | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 2.81 | 1.55 | 10 PRO | 28.11 |
Con
Win | Russia offers to commit 5,000+ troops to peacekeeping operations in Iraq. | Iraq | 11/3/2004 | 12.48 | 1.09 | 200 CON | 217.42 |
Pro
Win | Hamid Karzai elected president of Afghanistan. | World | 10/28/2004 | 1.03 | 36.97 | 70 PRO | 71.95 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 245 CON | 253.40 |
Con
Lose | Major al-Qaeda attack in Europe. | Europe | 10/3/2004 | 3.74 | 1.36 | 25 PRO | 93.56 |
Con
Win | For his role in the National Guard memo scandal, Dan Rather resigns or is fired as anchor of the CBS Evening News by the 1st of October. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.37 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.86 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 25 CON | 25.52 |
Con
Win | Congress overrides the Army's decision to cancel the Comanche. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.63 | 1.04 | 75 CON | 78.17 |
Con
Win | North Korea attacks South Korea. | World | 10/1/2004 | 148.31 | 1.01 | 50 CON | 50.34 |
Con
Win | Transport Bomb Attack Occurs--"The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that bombs hidden in luggage could be used to attack buses and railways in big US cities this summer." (BBC) | Terrorism | 9/15/2004 | 9.43 | 1.12 | 25 CON | 27.97 |
