| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Dow Jones average will close below 6000` | US | 1/1/2009 | 3.78 | 1.36 | 10 CON | 13.59 |
Con
Win | The Democrats will vote to re-instate a military draft before the 2008 elections | US | 11/5/2008 | 35.46 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.29 |
Con
Win | Senator George Allen will be the 2008 Republican presidential candidate. | US | 9/1/2008 | 42.93 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 102.38 |
Con
Win | Democrats will convince Senator Joe Lieberman they need him to be the Democratic presidential standard bearer for the 2008 presidential race. | US | 8/31/2008 | 25.59 | 1.04 | 10 CON | 10.41 |
Con
Win | 2008 Olympics in Beijing canceled after China invades Taiwan | China | 8/22/2008 | 9.78 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.14 |
Con
Lose | NASA will retire a Space Shuttle Orbiter by the end of 2007. | Sci/Tech | 1/12/2008 | 6.04 | 1.20 | 10 PRO | 60.38 |
Con
Win | American will station the majority of its troops in the Kurdish North of Iraq and all ow the Shi'a and Sunnis fight it out. | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 6.28 | 1.19 | 10 CON | 11.90 |
Con
Win | An administration official, US House representative or US Senator will publicly advocate restoring Saddam to power in Iraq in order to end what they will call chaos. | Iraq | 1/8/2008 | 14.31 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.75 |
Con
Win | Saddam Hussein regains dictatorial power in Iraq | Middle East | 1/8/2008 | 31.62 | 1.03 | 100 CON | 103.27 |
Con
Win | After winning re-election for a second term, the Bush administration will successfully lobby Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment restricting a President to two terms. | US | 1/8/2008 | 23.50 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.44 |
Con
Win | John Bolton keeps his post as US Ambassabor to the United Nations. | US | 8/6/2007 | 15.95 | 1.07 | 10 CON | 10.67 |
Con
Win | Sectarian clashes in Lebanon end in civil war. Syria enters the country and install an Iran-backed military occupation. | Middle East | 8/6/2007 | 334.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.03 |
Con
Win | Syria and Iran invade Iraq and set up insurgent puppet regime.
| Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 82.07 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.12 |
Pro
Lose | Colts win '07 Superbowl. | US | 8/6/2007 | 3.47 | 1.40 | 10 CON | 14.04 |
Con
Win | Before all US troops have pulled out of Iraq, the country will collapse into civil war and effectively Balkanize. | Iraq | 8/6/2007 | 10.42 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.06 |
Con
Win | Walid Jumblat is assasinated in Lebanon, sparking hostilities between pro Syrian and anti Syrian forces in Beirut, Israel uses this to invade Lebanon.
| Middle East | 1/18/2007 | 53.86 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.89 |
Con
Win | A civil insurrection requiring regular armed forces troops will occur in a US city before Bush leaves office. | US | 1/18/2007 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.77 |
Con
Win | US Withdraws from Iraq, Which Quickly Degenerates into Civil War | Iraq | 1/18/2007 | 9.08 | 1.12 | 100 CON | 112.37 |
Con
Win | William Jefferson Clinton becomes the next Secretary General of the United Nations. | World | 1/18/2007 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.47 |
Con
Win | The US begins construction of an Isreali style fence along the Mexican-US border. | US | 1/18/2007 | 5.12 | 1.24 | 100 CON | 124.28 |
Con
Lose | Demotcrats will loose at least one (1) net seat in the US Senate in the 2006 mid-term elections. | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.03 | 1.97 | 10 PRO | 20.30 |
Con
Win | A nuclear weapon is used in anger in either India or Pakistan. | World | 1/18/2007 | 11.00 | 1.10 | 10 CON | 11.00 |
Con
Win | Anbar province will declare its independence from Iraq. | Iraq | 12/30/2006 | 22.01 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 104.76 |
Con
Lose | The Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2006 elections | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.49 | 1.67 | 10 PRO | 24.90 |
Con
Win | Hillary Clinton will NOT run for a second term in the U.S. Senate representing NY State. | US | 12/30/2006 | 30.18 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.34 |
Con
Lose | XM8 uses caseless ammo | US | 12/30/2006 | 153.91 | 1.01 | 10 PRO | 1,539.09 |
Con
Lose | Evidence will be discovered that elements of Saddam's WMD program were secreted in the Syria controlled Bekaa Valley. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 10 PRO | 17.62 |
Con
Lose | Israel Will Strike Iranian Nuclear Facilit[ies]y. | Middle East | 12/30/2006 | 1.91 | 2.10 | 10 PRO | 19.13 |
Con
Win | Wal-Mart Announces Plan To Open First Store In Iraq | Iraq | 7/14/2006 | 19.15 | 1.06 | 10 CON | 10.55 |
Con
Lose | A Shia-dominated Iraqi Defense Force that will crush the insurgency utilizing ruthless tactics. The American electorate will look the other way and accept this as acceptable. | Iraq | 6/1/2006 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 100 PRO | 163.70 |
Con
Win | The United States conducts avowed military operations in an attempt to destroy or delay the Iranian nuclear weapons program. | Middle East | 6/1/2006 | 3.52 | 1.40 | 10 CON | 13.96 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair no longer Prime Minister of The United Kingdom. | Europe | 6/1/2006 | 9.73 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.15 |
Con
Lose | If convicted on molestation charges, Michael Jackson chooses to commit suicide rather than going to prison. | US | 4/13/2006 | 18.22 | 1.06 | 10 PRO | 182.22 |
Con
Win | Bashir Assad is assasinated in Syria causing an Islamic fundamentilist revolution within its borders. US forces debate moving into Syria to stabilize region.
| Middle East | 4/10/2006 | 20.93 | 1.05 | 10 CON | 10.50 |
Con
Win | Colin Powell to become UN Secretry General | World | 4/10/2006 | 142.93 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.70 |
Con
Win | A Democrat filibuster will succeed in forcing the withdrawal of Samuel "Scalito" Alito's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 3/12/2006 | 100.60 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Lose | The Netherlands will experience the types of Islamic suicide bombings now afflicting the English. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.74 | 1.11 | 100 PRO | 973.63 |
Con
Win | Democrats & EU leaders call for Bush to resign over the Katrina tragedy. France renews UN talks on Kyoto. Whitehouse expedites NATO troop recall for redeployment to Katrina-hit disaster areas. | US | 1/24/2006 | 175.80 | 1.01 | 100 CON | 100.57 |
Con
Lose | There will be another AlQaeda suicide bombing attack in Britain before yearend. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 9.14 | 1.12 | 10 PRO | 91.44 |
Pro
Lose | The price of a barrel of oil will top $70 USD. | World | 1/24/2006 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 10 CON | 20.56 |
Con
Win | A communist country goes to war with a US ally (or America itself). | World | 1/24/2006 | 35.42 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.29 |
Con
Win | United States implements conscription. | US | 1/24/2006 | 24.90 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.18 |
Con
Lose | Major combat operations begin in Iran in 2005 after evidence suggests development of nuclear weapons, and plans to use them against Israeli and/or American interests in Mid-East. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 100 PRO | 180.15 |
Con
Lose | US Army will fail to meet its recruiting quotas for the next six months. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.30 | 4.28 | 10 PRO | 13.05 |
Pro
Win | Target Florida: Florida will experience at least one Category 3+ hurricane (i.e., sustained 1 minute surface winds of 111+ mph) somewhere over the state's landmass during the 2005 hurricane season. | US | 12/10/2005 | 1.97 | 2.03 | 100 PRO | 196.85 |
Con
Lose | The US begins covert military strikes against Baathist camps and leaders in Syria. | Terrorism | 12/10/2005 | 1.49 | 3.03 | 100 PRO | 149.34 |
Con
Lose | Chicago Cubs win the World Series | Sports | 11/10/2005 | 91.51 | 1.01 | 1 PRO | 91.51 |
Con
Lose | John Roberts will be confirmed by the Senate to replace the retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor. | US | 11/10/2005 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 100 PRO | 200.33 |
Con
Lose | Minutemen patroling border will suffer casualties from an attack by Mexican border patrol or MS-13 | US | 11/10/2005 | 21.00 | 1.05 | 10 PRO | 210.00 |
Con
Lose | Iran brought before the UN Security Council by United States/Allies for possible sanctions. | World | 10/7/2005 | 3.49 | 1.40 | 10 PRO | 34.95 |
Con
Win | Syria-Iran war vs. US and Israel, on two fronts: Iraq and Lebanon/Golan. | Middle East | 10/7/2005 | 14.48 | 1.07 | 100 CON | 107.42 |
Con
Win | US and non-Iraqi allies have fewer than 100,000 troops in Iraq | Iraq | 10/7/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 10 CON | 13.94 |
Con
Win | US announces plans to privatize Fannie Mae | US | 10/7/2005 | 33.07 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.31 |
Con
Lose | Self styled head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is captured or killed by coalition-led forces by 1st Sept. 2005.
| Iraq | 9/22/2005 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 10 PRO | 17.32 |
Con
Lose | US Marine general makes politically insensitive public remark before any general officer of the other US armed services | US | 9/22/2005 | 8.16 | 1.14 | 10 PRO | 81.58 |
Pro
Win | The death toll from Katrina will exceed 300 as determined two weeks from now. | US | 9/14/2005 | 1.08 | 14.26 | 300 PRO | 322.63 |
Pro
Win | A Russian military mini-sub and its 7 member crew stuck about 200 meters down in Russia's Pacific waters on 8/5/05 after the vessel's propeller got entangled in fishing nets will all be rescued alive. | Russia | 8/23/2005 | 1.04 | 27.90 | 100 PRO | 103.72 |
Con
Lose | Chief Justice Rehnquist will announce his retire before August 15. | US | 8/23/2005 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 10 PRO | 37.50 |
Con
Win | US will challenge Venezuela to allow access to its country to investigate disappearance of woman from Aruba. | World | 8/10/2005 | 103.76 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.10 |
Con
Win | Tom DeLay resigns as House Majority Leader | US | 8/10/2005 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 10 CON | 10.76 |
Con
Lose | John Bolton will be confirmed as the next Ambassador to the United Nations. | US | 8/10/2005 | 1.31 | 4.24 | 10 PRO | 13.09 |
Con
Win | Osama bin Laden caught or killed | Terrorism | 7/6/2005 | 35.66 | 1.03 | 10 CON | 10.29 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will conduct aerial eradication of Afghan poppy fields during the 2005 growing season. | World | 7/6/2005 | 9.97 | 1.11 | 10 CON | 11.12 |
Con
Win | North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon | World | 7/6/2005 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 10 CON | 13.93 |
Pro
Win | Bush nominee Paul Wolfowitz gets approved by World Bank Board as next Bank President. | World | 6/10/2005 | 1.06 | 18.58 | 10 PRO | 10.57 |
Con
Win | In the first half of 2005, the President will announce plans to pull most or all U.S. troops out of Iraq. | Iraq | 5/31/2005 | 7.87 | 1.15 | 100 CON | 114.56 |
Con
Lose | Syrian troops withdraw completely from Lebanon | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 2.21 | 1.83 | 10 PRO | 22.11 |
Con
Lose | Robert Mugabe is re-elected President of Zimbabwe with 80% of the vote. | World | 5/11/2005 | 3.01 | 1.50 | 100 PRO | 301.10 |
Con
Lose | The Next Pope Will Be From Latin America | General | 4/19/2005 | 3.16 | 1.46 | 10 PRO | 31.61 |
Con
Win | US troops in Iraq are proven to have targeted journalists for assassination. | Iraq | 4/17/2005 | 84.33 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.12 |
Con
Lose | Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term. | US | 4/17/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 100 PRO | 295.57 |
Con
Win | The 2004-2005 NHL Season will be un-cancelled. | Sports | 3/15/2005 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10 CON | 10.00 |
Con
Win | Iran agrees to permanatly stop uranium enrichment. | World | 3/15/2005 | 123.93 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.08 |
Con
Win | CBS memos found to be work of pro-Bush agents. | US | 3/15/2005 | 28.50 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.64 |
Pro
Win | New England Patriots win the Superbowl | Sports | 2/6/2005 | 1.11 | 10.18 | 100 PRO | 110.89 |
Pro
Win | Iraqi National Elections will be held by June 30, 2005 | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.08 | 12.86 | 140 PRO | 151.81 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 100 PRO | 132.55 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi elections occur on January 30, 2005 as scheduled with the majority of eligible Iraqis participating. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 200 PRO | 275.85 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Asia tsunami and related diseases exceeds 200,000. | World | 1/20/2005 | 1.19 | 6.18 | 100 PRO | 119.30 |
Con
Lose | The Indianapolis Colts Win Superbowl XXXIX | Sports | 1/16/2005 | 4.28 | 1.31 | 100 PRO | 427.65 |
Pro
Win | Death toll from Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami, including disease induced by the tsunami, reaches 150,000. | World | 1/4/2005 | 1.02 | 53.64 | 600 PRO | 611.40 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 100 PRO | 102.95 |
Con
Win | In the 2004 American presidentail election, if the result is a close or a disputed Bush victory, the UN election inspectors will refuse to certify Bush's reelection. | US | 1/4/2005 | 6.56 | 1.18 | 110 CON | 129.78 |
Con
Win | Saddam is tried and executed before the end of the year. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 100 CON | 124.98 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 100 PRO | 115.20 |
Con
Win | Another hurricane (Category 1 or higher) will strike Florida this hurricane season. | US | 12/6/2004 | 44.04 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 102.32 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 72 PRO | 72.99 |
Con
Win | Israel Will Pre-Emptively Nuke Iran This Year If Kerry Is Elected President, i.e., Before His Inaugeration. See http://windsofchange.net/archives/004885.php | Middle East | 11/7/2004 | 11.69 | 1.09 | 100 CON | 109.35 |
Pro
Lose | U.S. presidential election: The difference in the electoral vote totals of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be within 40 (for example, 289 to 249). | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 300 CON | 589.16 |
Con
Win | John Kerry elected President. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 54 CON | 88.42 |
Pro
Win | President Bush wins reelection. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.34 | 3.94 | 100 PRO | 134.03 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 50 CON | 60.72 |
Con
Win | Will Bush win a plurality of votes, but lose in the electoral college (e.g. inverse of 2000)? | US | 11/3/2004 | 14.01 | 1.08 | 100 CON | 107.68 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins more than 60% of the popular vote for president on November 2. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 100 CON | 124.98 |
Con
Win | In a move reminiscent of the 2002 New Jersey senate campaign, the democratic national committee replaces John Kerry with another candidate. | US | 11/3/2004 | 52.20 | 1.02 | 100 CON | 101.95 |
Con
Win | High ranking white house official indicted for revealing id of covert CIA agent Valery Plame before elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 22.77 | 1.05 | 100 CON | 104.59 |
Con
Win | A Canadian Team Wins the X-Prize. | Sci/Tech | 10/6/2004 | 25.12 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.15 |
Con
Win | For his role in the National Guard memo scandal, Dan Rather resigns or is fired as anchor of the CBS Evening News by the 1st of October. | US | 10/1/2004 | 24.37 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 104.28 |
Pro
Win | Bush's approval rating 50+% after RNC. | US | 9/4/2004 | 1.29 | 4.40 | 500 PRO | 647.02 |
Con
Win | oil closes above $50.00 | World | 9/1/2004 | 6.09 | 1.20 | 200 CON | 239.31 |
