| Result | Event |
Category
|
Settled Date | Pro Value | Con Value | Futures Owned | Value |
Con
Win | Dick Cheney does not finish 2nd term. | US | 1/1/2009 | 4.87 | 1.26 | 2 CON | 2.52 |
Con
Win | Japan will gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, although it won't necessarily have veto power. | General | 1/1/2009 | 3.89 | 1.35 | 20 CON | 26.92 |
Con
Win | The Constitution of the United States is amended to permit naturalized citizens to be President. | US | 11/1/2008 | 7.66 | 1.15 | 10 CON | 11.50 |
Con
Lose | Domestic left-wing groups/individuals will attempt to assassinate a major national conservative political figure during the 2nd Bush administration. | US | 1/8/2008 | 2.72 | 1.58 | 30 PRO | 81.75 |
Con
Win | U.S. housing market decline - 2006 median home price lower than 2005 | US | 1/18/2007 | 2.94 | 1.52 | 100 CON | 151.55 |
Con
Win | China liberates North Korea | China | 1/18/2007 | 10.32 | 1.11 | 50 CON | 55.37 |
Con
Win | Republicans gain at least 2 more (For 57+) Senate seats after the 2006 election. | US | 12/30/2006 | 2.65 | 1.60 | 20 CON | 32.10 |
Con
Lose | Japan & Tiawan sign mutual defence agreements against China | China | 10/21/2006 | 17.33 | 1.06 | 5 PRO | 86.63 |
Pro
Win | Crude oil remains above $60.00 a barrel for the next 12 months. | General | 7/14/2006 | 1.84 | 2.19 | 1000 PRO | 1,843.65 |
Con
Lose | A Shia-dominated Iraqi Defense Force that will crush the insurgency utilizing ruthless tactics. The American electorate will look the other way and accept this as acceptable. | Iraq | 6/1/2006 | 1.64 | 2.57 | 120 PRO | 196.44 |
Con
Win | Harriet Miers will be confirmed by the Senate to the U.S. Supreme Court. | US | 1/24/2006 | 7.47 | 1.15 | 200 CON | 230.92 |
Con
Lose | A terrorist group files suit against the United States of America or an American defense company. | Terrorism | 1/24/2006 | 8.87 | 1.13 | 30 PRO | 265.99 |
Con
Lose | Iran and Russia actually finalize and sign spent-fuel return and recycling protocol for Bushehr nuclear reactor. Russia actually completes delivery of fuel assemblies to reactor. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 5.89 | 1.20 | 250 PRO | 1,472.84 |
Con
Lose | Major combat operations begin in Iran in 2005 after evidence suggests development of nuclear weapons, and plans to use them against Israeli and/or American interests in Mid-East. | Middle East | 1/24/2006 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 50 PRO | 90.07 |
Con
Lose | Donald Rumsfeld will not be the US Secretary of Defense at the end of 2005. | US | 1/24/2006 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 50 PRO | 103.63 |
Con
Win | A Chinese taikonaut (astronaut) is lost in a fatal accident during a space mission. | China | 1/24/2006 | 6.71 | 1.18 | 50 CON | 58.75 |
Con
Win | Renminbi/US4 exchange rate
Exchange rate for the Chinese Renminbi/ Yuan
Vis a vis the US $ will be below 7.800 Renminbi per 1 US $ , On or before 30 September 2005
| China | 10/7/2005 | 3.18 | 1.46 | 20 CON | 29.16 |
Con
Win | Terrorist group enters the US through either Canada or Mexico, and successfully conduct dirty bomb or nuclear attack on American soil. | Terrorism | 10/7/2005 | 5.27 | 1.23 | 30 CON | 37.03 |
Con
Lose | Haliburton will be found to have commited overcharging and fraud by Army accountants on no bid contracts for US troop support through subsidiary Brown & Root. | US | 9/22/2005 | 2.42 | 1.71 | 50 PRO | 120.75 |
Pro
Lose | Israel completes withdrawal from Gaza Strip, including removal of all settlements therein. | Middle East | 9/22/2005 | 1.27 | 4.64 | 40 CON | 185.63 |
Con
Lose | When William Rehnquist retires, President Bush will nominate Antonin Scalia to be the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. | US | 8/10/2005 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 50 PRO | 119.04 |
Con
Win | As a result of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food corruption investigations, Kofi Anan will resign as Sectretary-General of the United Nations. | Iraq | 8/10/2005 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 20 CON | 33.93 |
Con
Win | US forces in Iraq decline to under 60,000. | Middle East | 6/10/2005 | 4.72 | 1.27 | 60 CON | 76.11 |
Con
Win | Airstrikes by US forces against Iranian targets - excluding cross-border raids aimed at stemming Ansar or 'hot pursuit' scenarios. | Middle East | 5/31/2005 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 20 CON | 22.12 |
Con
Win | Kurd vs. Sunni vs. Shiite civil war explodes in Iraq. US troops caught in middle. | Iraq | 5/11/2005 | 2.84 | 1.54 | 50 CON | 77.17 |
Con
Win | Will Chile grant Bolivia the access to the Pacific that they are asking for. | World | 4/20/2005 | 110.63 | 1.01 | 5 CON | 5.05 |
Con
Win | After president Bush wins re-election, there is a massive US build up on Syria's border, and Syria asks for the same deal as Lybia and gives up terrorism. | Middle East | 4/17/2005 | 27.80 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 51.87 |
Con
Win | Provided he wins the election, Bush promotes a flat tax or other similarly radical reform of the IRS early in his second term. | US | 4/17/2005 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 100 CON | 151.13 |
Pro
Win | The Montreal Expos do NOT move to Washington D.C. in 2005. | Sports | 4/17/2005 | 6.99 | 1.17 | 40 PRO | 279.78 |
Con
Win | Major Al Quaeda base discovered in Indonesia. Indonesian military moves in to crush it with the help of US advisors. | Terrorism | 4/17/2005 | 9.55 | 1.12 | 20 CON | 22.34 |
Con
Win | Israel evicts/drives out nearly all Palestinians from Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. | World | 4/17/2005 | 113.24 | 1.01 | 10 CON | 10.09 |
Con
Lose | Iraqi insurgents will conduct at least three major attacks causing major civilian casualties prior to the elections on 30 January 2005. | Iraq | 2/3/2005 | 1.33 | 4.07 | 250 PRO | 331.38 |
Con
Lose | December 2004 COMEX gold settles at/above $436.50. | World | 1/30/2005 | 1.09 | 11.55 | 20 PRO | 21.90 |
Con
Lose | Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich will use his military and police to violently suppress the Opposition protesters against his re-election. | General | 1/30/2005 | 9.24 | 1.12 | 20 PRO | 184.77 |
Con
Win | Kim Jong-il dead or out of power by end of year. | World | 1/4/2005 | 8.10 | 1.14 | 50 CON | 57.04 |
Con
Win | EU launches sanctions on the Ukraine govt over the continuing electoral standoff there. EU refrains from referring the issue to the United Nations. | Europe | 1/4/2005 | 23.42 | 1.04 | 50 CON | 52.23 |
Con
Win | US - North Korean Military Incident in the Sea of Japan | General | 1/4/2005 | 9.23 | 1.12 | 20 CON | 22.43 |
Pro
Win | While the reelection of George W Bush will prompt predictions of liberals and other leftists leaving America, no such exodus (at least not a statistically significant one) will actually take place. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.03 | 34.95 | 100 PRO | 102.95 |
Con
Win | Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons will be used in a terrorist attack in Aisa, Europe or North America before the new year. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 5.84 | 1.21 | 20 CON | 24.13 |
Con
Win | Russian Peacekeeping Troops Enter Iraq. | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 13.21 | 1.08 | 50 CON | 54.09 |
Con
Win | Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist will resign before Januay 1, 2005. | US | 1/4/2005 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 10 CON | 13.18 |
Pro
Win | There will still be no resignations or firings from CBS over the National Guard memo scandal by the end of the year. | US | 1/4/2005 | 1.15 | 7.58 | 10 PRO | 11.52 |
Con
Win | National elections in Iraq | Iraq | 1/4/2005 | 2.76 | 1.57 | 20 CON | 31.40 |
Con
Win | Breakaway republic from Indonesia | World | 1/4/2005 | 45.89 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.45 |
Con
Win | U.S. combat troops sent to Columbia to fight narco-terrorists. | US | 1/4/2005 | 28.76 | 1.04 | 20 CON | 20.72 |
Con
Win | Major Islamic terrorist attack attempted in Australia in the fortnight immediately before the Federal Election. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 7.44 | 1.16 | 120 CON | 138.63 |
Con
Win | Terririst attack in Finland. | Terrorism | 1/4/2005 | 20.08 | 1.05 | 2 CON | 2.10 |
Pro
Win | The Federal Reserve will raise the Fed Funds rate at the December 14 meeting. | US | 12/30/2004 | 1.08 | 14.14 | 100 PRO | 107.61 |
Con
Win | Before December 13, Media Reports of Massive Election Fraud Causes Suspension of December 13 Electoral College Vote or a massive change in electoral vote. | US | 12/22/2004 | 20.42 | 1.05 | 2 CON | 2.10 |
Con
Win | With final vote count yet to be certified, world shocked to learn when final certified count at Ohio tips in favor of Kerry. | US | 12/22/2004 | 145.06 | 1.01 | 2 CON | 2.01 |
Con
Win | Turkey will be accepted into the EU | World | 12/6/2004 | 10.27 | 1.11 | 150 CON | 166.18 |
Pro
Win | US and Iraqi government forces will claim victory in Fallujah without capturing/killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. | Iraq | 12/6/2004 | 1.01 | 73.61 | 20 PRO | 20.28 |
Con
Lose | The AUC demobilization collapses, leading to a tacit alliance between the AUC and the Colombian government against FARC. | World | 12/6/2004 | 14.99 | 1.07 | 20 PRO | 299.77 |
Con
Win | Zimbabwean financial and civil meltdown causes South African intervention to rectify. Mugabe flees to third country to avoid trail for crimes against humanity. | World | 12/6/2004 | 13.90 | 1.08 | 20 CON | 21.55 |
Con
Win | Scott Peterson will be found NOT GUILTY of murdering his wife and unborn child. | General | 11/12/2004 | 11.33 | 1.10 | 350 CON | 383.88 |
Con
Lose | Arafat "officially" declared dead by PLO. | Middle East | 11/9/2004 | 2.08 | 1.93 | 15 PRO | 31.19 |
Con
Win | Dan Rather is found to be the source of the CBS-promoted anti-Bush CYA documents. | US | 11/7/2004 | 628.00 | 1.00 | 50 CON | 50.08 |
Con
Win | Taiwan acquires the Ticonderoga-class CGs the U.S. Navy is retiring. | China | 11/3/2004 | 5.02 | 1.25 | 50 CON | 62.44 |
Con
Lose | National Missile Defense site in Alaska goes operational before the US presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 75 PRO | 121.97 |
Con
Win | Republicans pick up at least 5 seats in the US senate from the November 2nd, 2004 elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 50 CON | 60.72 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will drop to $47 or less per barrel by November 2, 2004. | World | 11/3/2004 | 4.78 | 1.26 | 60 CON | 75.86 |
Con
Lose | By 8pm EDT on Wednesday, November 3rd, the winner of the US Presidential election will still be unknown or in dispute. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 20 PRO | 47.58 |
Con
Win | John Kerry wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 4.45 | 1.29 | 50 CON | 64.50 |
Pro
Win | George W. Bush wins the Presidential election. | US | 11/3/2004 | 1.70 | 2.42 | 200 PRO | 340.64 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin laden will be caught before the US Presidential Elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 5.66 | 1.21 | 2 CON | 2.43 |
Con
Win | Homeland Security (FBI, CIA, Etc.) will announce they successfully foiled a terrorist attempt to disrupt the U.S. Presidential Election within one week of the Election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 2 CON | 2.84 |
Con
Win | The price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Light Sweet Crude will reach $60 or more per barrel by November 2, 2004. | US | 11/3/2004 | 8.22 | 1.14 | 24 CON | 27.32 |
Con
Win | Catastrophic seismic event occurs on the West coast by election day. | US | 11/3/2004 | 10.43 | 1.11 | 20 CON | 22.12 |
Con
Lose | Kerry gets new campaign manager. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 100 PRO | 245.75 |
Con
Win | Osama Bin Laden is proven captured or killed before the November elections. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 5.39 | 1.23 | 100 CON | 122.80 |
Con
Win | PLO and PA Chairman Yassir Arafat dies. | Middle East | 11/3/2004 | 15.46 | 1.07 | 20 CON | 21.38 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will conduct multiple simultaneous attacks using powdered anthrax in Washington D.C. and New York, shortly before the US Presidencial elections. | US | 11/3/2004 | 26.55 | 1.04 | 100 CON | 103.91 |
Con
Win | Al-Qaida will attempt several mass casualty attacks in the USA to influence the election. | Terrorism | 11/3/2004 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 100 CON | 127.58 |
Con
Lose | Responsibility for the Abhu Ghraib incident will be charged to an officer with rank lower than Lt. Colonel. | US | 11/3/2004 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 20 PRO | 47.02 |
Pro
Win | Boston Red Sox win the World Series | Sports | 10/28/2004 | 3.21 | 1.45 | 40 PRO | 128.23 |
Pro
Win | The X-Prize is won, an attempt to privately launch a shuttle twice within 14 days. | Sci/Tech | 10/4/2004 | 1.43 | 3.34 | 150 PRO | 214.04 |
Con
Win | The U.S. will be forced to pull out of Iraq due to popular uprisings abroad and widespread sentiments at home.
| Iraq | 10/3/2004 | 30.15 | 1.03 | 1 CON | 1.03 |
Con
Win | Tony Blair resigns as UK Prime Minister. | Europe | 10/1/2004 | 49.08 | 1.02 | 20 CON | 20.42 |
Con
Win | Al Qaeda will attack several oil and gas refineries across the US this summer, hoping to drastically raise fuel prices and thereby damage the US economy. | Terrorism | 10/1/2004 | 6.97 | 1.17 | 50 CON | 58.38 |
