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Subject:
North, South, East, West, Other
David Blue
8/1/2002 10:44:46 PM
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| Who's winning? Who's losing? Who's fighting?
Islam is fighting aggressively on every front. That's the real war.
China could start fighting at any time, and then that would be the main fight, but China is not fighting yet, so the issue is Islam.
Other wars are going on, but none with the significance of the ad hoc global jihad.
South: Islam is expanding, and traditional African religion is being crushed. However, Christianity too is doing a lot of the crushing, so it's not clear who is winning, only who the losers will be. Too bad, it's a darn shame when an ancient culture goes under history's hammer.
East: In my opinion, the ball is well and truly in India's court. The continuing Pakistani occupation in Kashmir and Muslim terrorism means that the initiative is with the invaders till India does something to change that, and so far the aggressors are basically getting away with their actions. (Were I an Indian, I would be saying: "Fight now!" Since I am not an Indian, I say: "Nobody has the right to tie India's hands.") China is a long term target, but Muslim militancy there is not an immediate high priority issue.
North: The Russians are doing well at the moment, but they are still in a demographic free-fall. I won't be convinced the situation is safe till there are enough ethnic Russian babies to defend Russia.
West: The war against Israel is going reasonably well for the Muslims. It's amazing what they continue to get away with while suffering no real penalties. Diplomacy continues to strangle Israel, and will do so as long as the oil holds out and Europeans care more about that than anything else. Europe is coming into serious long term danger (again, the truth is in the demographics), but is not fighting. The war on America is stalled. The Americans and we their allies failed to catch Osama Bin Laden, and despite this or perhaps because of it the Americans have selected another big target, Iraq. There is a serious struggle for the initiative here, and in the long run, my money is on America.
Elsewhere: Indonesia is a mess, hard to sum up. The action seems ugly but largely aimless. This is typical. We'll just have to wait and see what trends emerge.
I think that's about the size of it.
On the whole, I think there is no objective basis to tell Muslim fanatics that aggression does not pay. On the whole, it either is paying off for them, or looking like it might, with a bit of luck.
But the Americans are going to keep on keeping on. I don't think the famously forgetful Americans are going to forget 11 September. And I think sooner or later India will really fight on self defence. Till we know how those colossal fight turn out, Islam's victories should be seen as on loan at best. The only critical aspect of the big war that is going 100% in their favour is demographics, and demographic trends don't go in the same direction forever.
David Blue |
