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Subject: Threshold scenario and consequences
DarthAmerica    3/15/2008 3:14:09 PM
OK, imagine this. Its the 2008 Olympics and all is well when Taiwan suddenly declares independence unilaterally and by COMPLETE SURPRISE. Further fuel to the fire is Taiwan's suggestion through a leak that it is a nuclear power with multiple nuclear warheads to equip it's fighter bombers and surface to surface cruise missiles. How would the PRC and the rest of the world respond to this? According the PRC statements both of these events would trigger an immediate war. Against the back drop of the Olympics nd the obvious threat of the nuclear weapons, would the PRC have the political and military strength to respond? How would the USA and Japan react to this? -DA
 
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Carl D.       3/16/2008 3:30:15 PM
Considering the extra pressure now in play on the Olympics with the protests in Tibet and neighboring provinces, if you were to add a move like this by Taiwan, at a minimum, the dao rattling would be deafening at a minimum. 

Such a situation could well rival the Cuban Missile Crisis in "pucker factor" without a doubt. 

Given the scenario Darth is suggesting, about the only thing that could give the PRC pause would be a "test shot" to the east of Taiwan over international waters away from the shipping lanes along the lines of what happened off the coast of South Africa in September 1979 to back up such a claim.  It would either give the CCP/PLA a moment of genuine pause or they'd go completely nuts an unleash everything.  Never mind how everyone else involved would react.

 
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Herald12345       3/18/2008 2:25:32 AM

Considering the extra pressure now in play on the Olympics with the protests in Tibet and neighboring provinces, if you were to add a move like this by Taiwan, at a minimum, the dao rattling would be deafening at a minimum. 

Such a situation could well rival the Cuban Missile Crisis in "pucker factor" without a doubt. 

Given the scenario Darth is suggesting, about the only thing that could give the PRC pause would be a "test shot" to the east of Taiwan over international waters away from the shipping lanes along the lines of what happened off the coast of South Africa in September 1979 to back up such a claim.  It would either give the CCP/PLA a moment of genuine pause or they'd go completely nuts an unleash everything.  Never mind how everyone else involved would react.

A nuclear weapon release in anger means central war.

The PACRIM reaction would be very bad, the US reaction would be far worse.

At the least-diplomatic  isolation and economic siege.

At the very worst, the D-5s fly.

Herald
 
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kensohaski       3/21/2008 8:47:09 AM



Considering the extra pressure now in play on the Olympics with the protests in Tibet and neighboring provinces, if you were to add a move like this by Taiwan, at a minimum, the dao rattling would be deafening at a minimum. 

Such a situation could well rival the Cuban Missile Crisis in "pucker factor" without a doubt. 

Given the scenario Darth is suggesting, about the only thing that could give the PRC pause would be a "test shot" to the east of Taiwan over international waters away from the shipping lanes along the lines of what happened off the coast of South Africa in September 1979 to back up such a claim.  It would either give the CCP/PLA a moment of genuine pause or they'd go completely nuts an unleash everything.  Never mind how everyone else involved would react.


A nuclear weapon release in anger means central war.

The PACRIM reaction would be very bad, the US reaction would be far worse.

At the least-diplomatic  isolation and economic siege.

At the very worst, the D-5s fly.

Herald

Indeed such a situation would do the island not a bit of good, what's left of it.....   The PRC would be a glass parking lot...  And Walmart would go out of business...

 
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