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Subject: Its 1988 and mechanized warfare in the fulda gap goes nuclear.
MrCarrot    12/16/2008 10:47:35 AM
Hi guys something that has always fascinated me but is largely underepresented in fiction and analysis is the nuclear ORBAT and nature of deployment of the opposing forces. For instance in Red Dawn Rising, or the BBC's WW3 both fun fictional scenarios stop either preventing a nuclear attack or at the start of one. Now this differs slightly from the over analyzed ICBM salvos/first strike etc. scenarious. What happens when 50% of your nuclear armed strike fighter package (F3s, F15s) etc. are engaged in normal warfare scenarios? How quickly could nato and the warsaw pact get birds on the ground re-armed and rolling before ICBMs and SLBMs start raining down? How effective would interception packaged be when a great deal of the numbers are tasked with dealing with anti-CAS operations etc. So in short how damaging would actual open warfare be on the efficiency related units to peform a MAD role? And what would a mid 80s time table actually look like (or is it all just pushing the red button and emergancy action messages go out 30 mins later 25% of everyone is dead)?
 
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MrCarrot       12/16/2008 11:14:56 AM
Um sorry about that for some reason i got 505 errors and now it seems to have multi posted :(
 
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DGreat1       12/16/2008 3:37:09 PM
On Thermonuclear War by Herman Kahn could provide you with some answers, as the author addresses scenarios similar to what you posted.
 
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JFKY    Realize   12/16/2008 3:56:22 PM
1) A certain percentage of NATO's a/c where Nuclear Quick Reaction Aircraft (QRA's).  Pretty much 24-7x365 a certain number of a/c stood QRA Alert, so the a/c delivering nuclear strikes, initially, would NOT have to be a/c performing other missions, but would have been dedicated nuclear strike assets.
2) A certain number of delivery systems were NUCLEAR ONLY, not dual-capable...the Pluton and Hades for France, the Pershing II (post-1982) for the US, and the Pershing I for the Bundeswehr.  This systems stood on quick reaction alert, at least the P-II's (at least one battery near Neu Ulm) did again 24-7 X 365...in war-time they would have been dispersed throughout the operational area of their militaries awaiting orders to fire.

 
Bottom-line: between several dozen and several hundred nuclear weapons were ready, at all times, for use by NATO.  No doubt the WTO had similar arrangements.  So from the get-go nuclear weapons could have been employed, with no draw-down of conventional firepower.
 
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MrCarrot       12/17/2008 7:59:24 AM
So even if the air war was going badly for nato or the warsaw pact they would not take dual role strike platforms off nuclear duties to attempt to win air superiority?
 
Interestingly was reading the autobiography of one of the British pilots shot down in the first gulf war, it mentioned that even though he was on interception duty in Germany that he would have been ordered to land, rearmed with nuclear free fall bombs then used to drop them on Warsaw AA sites. Seems strange that interception assets would be given a nuclear strike mission instead of trying to swat bears out of the sky.
 
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MrCarrot       12/17/2008 8:13:53 AM
So even if the air war was going badly for nato or the warsaw pact they would not take dual role strike platforms off nuclear duties to attempt to win air superiority?
 
Interestingly was reading the autobiography of one of the British pilots shot down in the first gulf war, it mentioned that even though he was on interception duty in Germany that he would have been ordered to land, rearmed with nuclear free fall bombs then used to drop them on Warsaw AA sites. Seems strange that interception assets would be given a nuclear strike mission instead of trying to swat bears out of the sky.
 
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JFKY    Not odd at all...   12/17/2008 10:17:45 AM
NATO/WTO air forces could deliver, conventionally, a few Kilotons per day, literally, in conventional firepower...ONE tactical/theatre nuclear warhead, not an AFAP from the 155mm or 152mm howitzers, one warhead, say B-28, or P-I or a P-II warhead could deliver that level of destruction, in a few micro-seconds, no more than the space of a few hours, if you count prep and delivery times.  Given that disparity in destruction potential, a coalition would be absolutely foolish to worry more about conventional weapons than its nuclear weapons.
 
Nuclear weapons had to have an absolute priority, the results of their use wold have profound battlefield and political effects.
 
Bottom-line: A Tornado or Phantom with a Yellow Sun or a B-28 attacking a WTO air field is FAR more valuable than a Tornado delivering SP-233's or MW-1's or a Phantom delivering a load of conventional bombs tot he same target. 
 
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DGreat1       12/17/2008 1:15:25 PM
good stuff. 
 
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MrCarrot       12/17/2008 4:55:10 PM
So even if the air war was going badly for nato or the warsaw pact they would not take dual role strike platforms off nuclear duties to attempt to win air superiority?
 
Interestingly was reading the autobiography of one of the British pilots shot down in the first gulf war, it mentioned that even though he was on interception duty in Germany that he would have been ordered to land, rearmed with nuclear free fall bombs then used to drop them on Warsaw AA sites. Seems strange that interception assets would be given a nuclear strike mission instead of trying to swat bears out of the sky.
 
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MrCarrot       12/17/2008 4:57:32 PM
my god i have no idea why its still multiposting now! Am switching to firefox, IE is utterly dire!
 
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verong       12/17/2008 10:51:42 PM

NATO/WTO air forces could deliver, conventionally, a few Kilotons per day, literally, in conventional firepower...ONE tactical/theatre nuclear warhead, not an AFAP from the 155mm or 152mm howitzers, one warhead, say B-28, or P-I or a P-II warhead could deliver that level of destruction, in a few micro-seconds, no more than the space of a few hours, if you count prep and delivery times.  Given that disparity in destruction potential, a coalition would be absolutely foolish to worry more about conventional weapons than its nuclear weapons.

 

Nuclear weapons had to have an absolute priority, the results of their use wold have profound battlefield and political effects.

 

Bottom-line: A Tornado or Phantom with a Yellow Sun or a B-28 attacking a WTO air field is FAR more valuable than a Tornado delivering SP-233's or MW-1's or a Phantom delivering a load of conventional bombs tot he same target. 


the US now has cluster bombs! These were new then but can be more effective than a tactical nuke. a M1 tank could withstand a near miss by a tactical nuke then the use of cluster bombs. now the USA no longer needs tactical nukes which wasted most of there kilotons against non combatant ground and dead space between units!!!
Sincerely,
 
Keith
 
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