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Subject: Expert opinion on Russian collapse and consequences request
Necromancer    1/29/2009 12:31:16 AM
As Russia is the only country that can start a real world war, would anyone have theories on the possible scenarios that would lead upto say fall of government , military takeover or such?? Say taking Ukraine back?? I don't understand why China or Osama Bin is viewed as the primary threat to the West when Russia has 10,000 nukes available to the military.
 
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WarNerd       1/29/2009 5:04:48 AM
When you say "start a real world war" do mean a nuclear war?  (because of your reference to 10,000 nukes)
 
If so, then no, I cannot think of a realistic scenario that would put a cabal of unstable suicidal maniacs in power.  That's something that only happens in bad fiction.
 
You cannot expect to win a nuclear war, you can only hope to survive it.  And the aftermath.
 
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FJV       1/29/2009 1:58:09 PM
In my opinion he Russians don't spend enough money to really do that.
 
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Necromancer    Warnerd   1/29/2009 2:02:36 PM
IMHO only Russia can start a real world war, and yes there are maniacs in Russia that can toss a couple to show they are serious. My point is that the usual harp we here about Pakistan, China & IRan & Osama starting a world war is crap. Only Russia can start a world war (and vice versa USA) since it has the nuclear MAD to start something big. So if Russia were to roll WEst - how would it happen- similar to 1945 and there on or something else- remember Russian economy is going to hell fast and commies could takeover and blame Wall Street - and maybe toss a couple of nukes across the Atlantic......
Russians are sometimes as suicidal as the Islamo nuttrs (really- high rate of suicide in Russian intellectuals).
 
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Godofgamblers       1/29/2009 11:49:17 PM
In 45 the Russians could have "rolled West", but as early as the 70s, it would have been impossible. I'm not just talking about NATO, but about Russian economic capability and the capacity to supply their troops. Eastern Europe was already in debt to the West and people were using ration cards for everything from meat, choclate and gas to flour. How would they have supplied an army pushing west if they couldn't feed their own citizens?
 
The situation hasn't changed significantly today.... the "Russian threat" is more that the budget to store and maintain mukes may not be sufficient....
 
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WarNerd       1/30/2009 6:55:53 AM

IMHO only Russia can start a real world war, and yes there are maniacs in Russia that can toss a couple to show they are serious. My point is that the usual harp we here about Pakistan, China & IRan & Osama starting a world war is crap. Only Russia can start a world war (and vice versa USA) since it has the nuclear MAD to start something big. So if Russia were to roll WEst - how would it happen- similar to 1945 and there on or something else- remember Russian economy is going to hell fast and commies could takeover and blame Wall Street - and maybe toss a couple of nukes across the Atlantic......

Russians are sometimes as suicidal as the Islamo nuttrs (really- high rate of suicide in Russian intellectuals).


A high suicide rate does not necessarily mean that you want to take the world with you, probably the opposite.
The USA, Russian, UK, France, Israel, and Chinese governments seem to have developed effective "political immune" systems that can keep the nutters away from the controls.  Pakistan has not.  India has probably not.
 
Iran seems to have the lunatics running the asylum.
 
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Jimme    The real question is   1/31/2009 2:54:48 AM
All this talk about Russian military and the nuke stock piles i believe miss the point entirely.
The real threat from Russia IMO are their hackers. It just so happens that they are very good
  with their online activities abroad notoriously unchecked, and those are the amateurs.
Lets not talk about the state sponsored hacks who have been ramping up their cyber attack
skills.
 
To me this is where the US and the world is very vulnerable. There is pretty much an even
playing field and anyone with the skills and a laptop can join the party. Places like Africa 
have been a breading ground for net con artist and thieves that operate with impunity.
Its not hard to see how some one with a more sinister agenda could make use of the situation.
 
 
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WarNerd       1/31/2009 4:02:06 AM
After some thought I think I have your scenario, you will have to write the lead in.
 
The Russians intercept a nuclear truck bomb before it can detonate that traces back to Iran and then, during or just after it is announced in a press conference, a second identical device detonates inside Moscow and upwind of the Kremlin.  Both nuclear devices are enhanced fallout designs (packaged with a large amount of highly radioactive materials that are vaporized and spread by the nuke).  Moscow suffers over 200,000 casualties from the detonation and prompt radiation poisoning, and the city is considered uninhabitable for the foreseeable future.
 
In Russia demands for revenge approach levels not seen since WWII.  The UN steps in demanding moderation in their response.  Russia complains about foreign interference, but agrees not to initiate their attack on Iran with nuclear weapons. 
 
Iran makes a demonstration launch with an IRBM landing in the North Sea and issues warnings to the world that they will heap destruction on anyone involved (even peripherally) in an attack on Iran.  European governments that had previously opposed the ABM system in Poland are suddenly demanding that it be immediate made operational.
 
Russia's attack into northern Iran proceeds close to plan despite fanatical resistance until the Russian forces are about to exit from the mountains when another nuke is detonated behind them closing a critical pass.  The Russian units in Iran are left out of supply, surrounded, and over run.  Many of the survivors are executed.  All are brutally treated and subject to humiliating displays that are broadcast worldwide.
 
With most of their available ground forces destroyed, Russia proceeds to nuke all Iranian cities.  This action resulting in universal world wide condemnation, calls for the Russian leadership to be put on trial for crimes against humanity, and is seized upon by political opponents to demand that the regime in power step down.  Several former Eastern Block nations try to take advantage of this situation to make attempts to 'correct' Russian imposed situations, notably the Ukraine and Georgia.  Russia, lacking sufficient troops to counter all these moves simultaneously threatens to defend itself and it's allies with it's nuclear arsenal.  NATO moves token detachments into the threatened nations, including Patriot missile batteries for protection against short range ballistic missiles.
 
In Russian communist political opponents are attacking the regime in power using claims that the ABM system that is rapidly nearing completion in Poland will be used intercept Russia's nuclear weapons.  Russia threatens to attack "US interests" if this happens.
 
At this point all you need is for fighting to break out in one of the hot spots, a Russian ballistic missile intercepted by a Patriot battery, and a lot of people that are afraid of losing power and being put on trial if they back down.
------
Synopsis: 
The goal here is to produce a situation where Russia has lost the bulk of her conventional forces and is forced to rely solely on it's nuclear arsenal while political opponents are using their failing in a bid to oust the regime in power.
 
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EddieV       1/31/2009 11:42:42 AM

Interesting scenario, but I don?t think the international community would be too critical to the Russians AFTER Iran nuked Moscow. If that happened, I?d see the US, Israel and EU countries aiding Russia and even joining the fight and completely destroying Iran before the need to nuke them.

 
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lurker       1/31/2009 3:34:23 PM

In 45 the Russians could have "rolled West", but as early as the 70s, it would have been impossible. I'm not just talking about NATO, but about Russian economic capability and the capacity to supply their troops. Eastern Europe was already in debt to the West and people were using ration cards for everything from meat, choclate and gas to flour. How would they have supplied an army pushing west if they couldn't feed their own citizens?

 

The situation hasn't changed significantly today.... the "Russian threat" is more that the budget to store and maintain mukes may not be sufficient....


In 45,the US was at the top of the world (production, nukes, blah blah), Russia could not have rolled west at that point.
 
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WarNerd       2/1/2009 5:22:06 AM

Interesting scenario, but I don?t think the international community would be too critical to the Russians AFTER Iran nuked Moscow. If that happened, I?d see the US, Israel and EU countries aiding Russia and even joining the fight and completely destroying Iran before the need to nuke them.


Detonating a nuclear warhead over Tehran could be seen as tit-for-tat, nuking 20 or more cities is genocide.
 
If Russia thinks that they can "go it alone" they will.  Inviting other countries to join in just makes it inevitable that they would end up with a repeat of the partitioning of Germany at the end of WWII
 
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