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Subject: The coming collapse of China
Nanheyangrouchuan    2/3/2009 2:34:22 AM
"China is failing: w.iht.com/articles/2009/02/02/business/yuan.3-421355.php *** NEWS *** - Hu calls for PLA loyalty as fears grow of trouble ahead President Hu Jintao told leaders of the People's Liberation Army to "strengthen military discipline" and make sure the army stays absolutely loyal to the Communist Party as China enters a year of harsh economic reality and sensitive anniversaries. http://breakingnews.scmp.com/NLet/CMSNLet.asp?Dest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Escmp%2Ecom%2Fportal%2Fsite%2FSCMP%2Fmenuitem%2E2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0%2F%3Fvgnextoid%3D974bf25ecb23f110VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD%26ss%3DChina%26s%3DNews&PF=Y&NT=china - Far fewer migrants than expected arrive in Guangdong Most migrant workers heading to Guangdong after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday are returning to existing jobs and just 2 per cent are looking for work, Xinhua reports. http://breakingnews.scmp.com/NLet/CMSNLet.asp?Dest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Escmp%2Ecom%2Fportal%2Fsite%2FSCMP%2Fmenuitem%2E2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0%2F%3Fvgnextoid%3Deadaf25ecb23f110VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD%26ss%3DChina%26s%3DNews&PF=Y&NT=china *** COLUMNS *** - China Briefing: Beijing plays with online fire For the mainland's tens of millions of netizens, the hottest topic lately has been the central government's high-profile internet crackdown on so-called low-class content. http://breakingnews.scmp.com/NLet/CMSNLet.asp?Dest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Escmp%2Ecom%2Fportal%2Fsite%2FSCMP%2Fmenuitem%2E2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0%2F%3Fvgnextoid%3D592bf25ecb23f110VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD%26ss%3DChina%26s%3DNews&PF=Y&NT=china - Frank Ching: Unfamiliar territory http://breakingnews.scmp.com/NLet/CMSNLet.asp?Dest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Escmp%2Ecom%2Fportal%2Fsite%2FSCMP%2Fmenuitem%2E2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0%2F%3Fvgnextoid%3D6746dab77f71f110VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD%26ss%3DChina%26s%3DNews&PF=Y&NT=china *** BUSINESS *** - Wen warns lenders against bad debt growth Mainland banks should be watchful of running up further bad debts while boosting loans to help stimulate the economy, Premier Wen Jiabao told bank employees in London over the weekend. http://breakingnews.scmp.com/NLet/CMSNLet.asp?Dest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Escmp%2Ecom%2Fportal%2Fsite%2FSCMP%2Fmenuitem%2E2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0%2F%3Fvgnextoid%3D1606a0cf2123f110VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD%26ss%3DCompanies%26s%3DBusiness&PF=&NT=china"
 
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Godofgamblers       2/3/2009 5:37:48 AM
I think the bottom line is that China's real enemies are internal ones. The xenophobia that many allude to may simply be a reflex action to try to divert attention from domestic concerns. This would also explain the large non-mobile defence forces in large countries such as China, India and Indonesia which are used almost solely for domestic repression.
 
The Chinese experiment is an interesting one.
 
We know that :
 
GLASNOST + SKORENIE = regime change
 
The Chinese thought that
 
SKORENIE - GLASNOST = increased stability
 
but their maths may be a bit shaky.....:)
 
Time will tell.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    American stupidity   2/3/2009 12:10:18 PM
 
China may need to sell US debt and hold onto their cash in order to finance their short term budget problems. Without China can the US finance these multi trillion dollar stimulus pork spending?
 
Oh, the Arabs will buy our debt..... wait, oil is under $40.00 a barrel today and falling... hmmm......
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       2/3/2009 1:14:15 PM

 

China may need to sell US debt and hold onto their cash in order to finance their short term budget problems. Without China can the US finance these multi trillion dollar stimulus pork spending?

 

Oh, the Arabs will buy our debt..... wait, oil is under $40.00 a barrel today and falling... hmmm......


China has to buy our debt as part of their currency exchange rate manipulation.  I wish someone could explain how that works, but that is something I've read in FT, Economist, Businessweek and WSJ.  Also, if no one buys the debt, the Chinese won't get any money, and they need the US pork/stimulus program because eventually we will start consuming recklessly again and that is good for them.  They are out at least 20 million jobs in the last few months, but that is in addition to tens of millions of unemployed or underemployed college grads that has been accumulating every year for the past 3 years.
 
The whole world  screams for the US to consume, and to them I whisper "no".
 
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Heorot       2/3/2009 1:28:16 PM
I was at a trade fair last weekend with my partner, who runs an internet toy shop. According to several of the importers we spoke to, 50% of the soft toy factories in China have closed down in the last few months.
 
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gf0012-aust       2/3/2009 2:30:28 PM

They are out at least 20 million jobs in the last few months, but that is in addition to tens of millions of unemployed or underemployed college grads that has been accumulating every year for the past 3 years.

The whole world  screams for the US to consume, and to them I whisper "no".


In the last 3 years - including the current estimates due to the meltdown (which are very very conservative) china is sitting on close to 104 million - and I suspect that the figure is much higher because it doesn't factor in the fasllout in the northern, north western and south western areas.

if I was the US I wouldn't be consuming either - it's time to pull the head in  - or only consume locally for non essentials.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       2/3/2009 6:26:11 PM
You're up early gf.  The US unemployment picture isn't so hot either, which is going to continue to crush consumption.
The 7% figure only counts people collecting unemployment, not those who are no longer eligible or those are underemployed, living off of savings and a collection of minimum wage jobs.
 
But Obama isn't giving speeches to the US army, imploring them to be steadfast in the face of disharmony.
 
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Nichevo       2/3/2009 8:24:48 PM
Nan - HA!  No, he is cutting them over 10%.  Wonder how PLA would like that!
 
GoG - SKORENIE?
 
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Godofgamblers       2/3/2009 9:21:43 PM
If memory serves SKORENIE meant "speeding up", namely, speeding up the economy.
 
GLASNOST ---- opening up in tandem with SKORENIE (economic growth) would lead to PERESTROIKA ---- re-bulding of the Soviet system.
 
However, the skorenie didn't really take place and the whole house of cards came down.
 
The Poles tried skorenie in the early 70s and had good results in the beginning , but the incompetents running the factories swiftly turned and in the black situation into an in the red situation .... the whole failed Polish experiment was a harbinger of the failure of the Gorby policies, if you ask me.
 
 
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Nichevo       2/4/2009 2:10:21 AM
skorenie - oh it's Polish, of course.  D'oh!
 
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Godofgamblers       2/4/2009 4:59:06 AM
no, it's russian... i can't find it using google, the only hits that come up are from old posts i did on strategypage....(!) hopefully i got it right. it is a transliteration of russian characters so maybe there's a different accepted spelling for it in English.
 
I found it on this page
 
 
Lemme look in wiki....
 
 
 
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