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Subject: NOKO tests 10-20kton nuke
Necromancer    5/25/2009 5:37:59 PM
The question is why?
 
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WarNerd       5/26/2009 4:10:19 AM
North Korea apparently had a perception that if they had nuclear weapons that the US would have to negotiate with them as an equal.  Just the opposite has happened (even their allies are nervous about them), but they continue to behave as if it were otherwise.
From the reports the first test was a 'fizzle' (less than 1kT yield).  NK may be blaming the lack of the desired diplomatic result on the test failure and feel that a successful test would put them in a better bargaining position.  Given the food situation the people at the top may also feel they have little to lose.
 
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Parmenion       5/26/2009 12:45:24 PM
With luck, it'll be China that has to stay there for the next 40 years building and getting rocks lobbed at it when the regime finally collapses and not the US or UN. Or did you think Hillary Clinton just made all those trips to Bejing for the great food and atmosphere?
 
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DarthAmerica       5/27/2009 11:09:10 AM
It's a commercial for capability and the design. The N Koreas what to demonstrate that they can successfully develop nuclear devices conclusively. And that the devices can have militarily significant yields. Also, while everyone else is verifying the credibility of their existing arsenals through simulation, North Korea is the only nation to test a functioning device in the 21st century. You gain a  lot of data from real test. And with two test, this greatly enhances their understanding of nuclear technology. Of course then there are the politics. With the issue of whether or not they can make a nuclear device settled. Negotiating parties will not be able to simply brush off the Norths threats. 

Now keep in mind that I'm saying they demonstrated a "device" and not a weapon. They haven't done anything to demonstrate that they have the technology to miniaturize and harden the "device" so that it can be mated with a delivery system, survive delivery and function against a target. That would be the next step to fully verify a nuclear weapons capability. The final phase is to verify reliability and then survivability of the weapon and associated C2. That would be a game changer. Both locally in the context of a renewed Korean War as we would advance from an artillery bombardment of considerable magnitude required to destroy an area target to a single weapon. And internationally if such technology is proliferated to other nations who seek nuclear arms.

Of course North Korean timing is superb in that the west is not really in a position to take meaningful action. I've mentioned this before as the "Window of Opportunity" with regard to the Russians. The same applies to North Korea. WIth the bulk of our combat power fighting the GWOT and the economic climate being what it is, there is a window for countries like North Korea to advance their interest without fear of military retaliation. 

-DA 
 
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Herald12345    Ascerbic comment:   5/27/2009 12:16:04 PM

It's a commercial for capability and the design. The N Koreas what to demonstrate that they can successfully develop nuclear devices conclusively. And that the devices can have militarily significant yields. Also, while everyone else is verifying the credibility of their existing arsenals through simulation, North Korea is the only nation to test a functioning device in the 21st century. You gain a  lot of data from real test. And with two test, this greatly enhances their understanding of nuclear technology. Of course then there are the politics. With the issue of whether or not they can make a nuclear device settled. Negotiating parties will not be able to simply brush off the Norths threats. 




Now keep in mind that I'm saying they demonstrated a "device" and not a weapon. They haven't done anything to demonstrate that they have the technology to miniaturize and harden the "device" so that it can be mated with a delivery system, survive delivery and function against a target. That would be the next step to fully verify a nuclear weapons capability. The final phase is to verify reliability and then survivability of the weapon and associated C2. That would be a game changer. Both locally in the context of a renewed Korean War as we would advance from an artillery bombardment of considerable magnitude required to destroy an area target to a single weapon. And internationally if such technology is proliferated to other nations who seek nuclear arms.




Of course North Korean timing is superb in that the west is not really in a position to take meaningful action. I've mentioned this before as the "Window of Opportunity" with regard to the Russians. The same applies to North Korea. WIth the bulk of our combat power fighting the GWOT and the economic climate being what it is, there is a window for countries like North Korea to advance their interest without fear of military retaliation. 




-DA 
 
Amateur hour for the DPRK is over. They have their kernel.
 
 
 
I do so enjoy these opportunities to set the record straight.
 
Herald
 
 
 

 
 
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Beazz    Anyone know if this is true?   5/31/2009 12:11:10 AM
If this is true, what happens now?
 

Saturday, May 30, 2009

NORTH KOREA PUTS WARHEAD ON SHIP!

******* BULLETIN *******


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uIpart1IM-0/SiFypL8jaKI/AAAAAAAAAXE/oJdnHELPDJA/s320/Northkorea.gif" />Washington, DC (TRN) -- The U.S. National Reconnaissance Office which manages United States military spy satellites, issued an alert this morning regarding North Korea.

According to the alert, which was seen by the Turner Radio Network, U.S. spy satellites code named "Misty-2" and "Lacrosse -4" detected a "diffuse energy signature" emanating from an ocean shipping container loaded onto an ocean container ship at the port of Chiongjin in northeastern North Korea.

The energy signature is one that could be expected if a nuclear bomb was inside the shipping container.

That ship has set sail into the Sea of Japan.

The vessel is now under constant satellite surveillance and the U.S. Navy is deciding what to do about it. A military officer with knowledge of the situation told TRN:
"The ship has to be stopped and inspected but we can't send any ships to put a shot across her bow, order it to heave-to and prepare to be boarded. If it is a bomb, the North Korean ship Captain may have orders to detonate it if confronted at sea. That would kill any ship trying to board her.

We can't send in attack aircraft to sink the ship without verifying what's in the shipping container.


A submarine could safely torpedo the ship to sink it before the crew could detonate a bomb - if it's a bomb -- but since North Korean nuclear technology is very unstable a torpedo might cause the bomb to detonate anyway. The sub would survive, but the radiation released by an accidental detonation will cause problems.

Even in the best case scenario, if it is a bomb and the ship is sunk without a bomb detonation, there's the whole issue of having a nuclear bomb at the bottom of the Sea of Japan. The environmental damage could be catastrophic, poisoning the ocean and killing sea life for thousands of square miles.

This is an unimaginable act by North Korea and is going to end badly for everyone.
"
At present, the ship is heading out into the Sea of Japan. Its destination is unknown. If it is heading toward Japan, it can be within range of a major Japanese City within 2 days. If it is not heading out to Japan, it can reach the U.S. west coast in about 14 days.

More details as they become available. Check back
 
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