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Subject: Operation Barbarossa: Today's Germany V Today's Russia
bennywombat    8/25/2009 7:53:34 AM
I was just reading on WIKI about operation Barbarossa back in WWII, If Poland was allied to Germany and Belarus allied to russia, would the outcome still be the same as it was back then, would russia smash them or would it be a stalemate. This thread has probably been done to death but i really would like to know...
 
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Godofgamblers       8/26/2009 2:45:22 AM
Impossible to envision!
 
Why would Germany try the same operation twice? Geography and history are against it (what is the position of the Ukraine in all this?)
 
Keep realistic goals and maybe something could be done: Take Kaliningad and stop there. Any further attacks would be overextending your forces.
 
Keep in mind the lessons learnt during the Polish Soviet War: let the Russians be the ones to overextend themselves, win thru intel and maneuverability; use geography to your benefit.
 
Don't trek into Mother Russia Napoleon style. Been there, done that.
 
 
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ambush       8/26/2009 4:36:12 PM

I agree that this is impossible to envision.

 

Firs there is the politics

 Germany lack the political will to confront Russia over almost anything due in a large part to the country?s dependence on Russian Natural Gas.  Merkle has practically had Putin?s c@ck in her mouth over issues like expanded NATO membership and Georgia.

 

Lack of popular will. Germany is one of the last Western Powers that still has military conscription and about 30% of the population declares themselves has conscientious objectors.  There is hardly  enough of a war like attitude to support an invasion of Eastern Europe.  Heck you cannot even get popular support for a force in Afghanistan.

 

Military.  Germany is better equipped on a per item basis than Russia but they do not have a big enough military and lack the force projection/logistics capability on their own to support an invasion of Russia

 
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Parmenion       8/30/2009 12:00:52 PM
 

This is the only way I can think of where a conflict between these nations occurs:

 

If there were to be a confrontation with where Russia would face Germany on vaguely the same front as before it would be over Ukraine. Ukraine is increasingly becoming independent of Russia while Russia feels that Ukraine should essentially be a province of a Russian empire. Dmitry Medvedev recently wrote an open letter condemning the current unpopular leader of Ukraine in a bid to influence the election- I am trying to remember the name of the man who said "Without Ukraine, Russia is not an Empire, with Ukraine, Russia is automatically an Empire." or words to that effect.

 

I know he was in the US state department and was fairly well respected but I can't find the article.

 

Germany and the other EU powers want a strong independent Ukraine as a counterweight to Russia and as an alternate source of gas- I think they just finished another pipeline through Ukraine, but again I'd have to goal and find the article.

 

Now after Georgia, we have precedents for Russia using force to knock it's satellite states into line.

 

Ukraine may be a much more formidable prospect than Georgia- but the Kremlin doesn't think in these terms- they're too used to getting their own way.

 

So it's conceivable that some move of further independence could prompt Russia into finding a pretence to attack Ukraine.

 

Ukraine applying for EU or NATO membership would be a good one. Let?s say EU membership since the Kremlin isn?t stupid enough to pick a fight with the US.

 

Now the question is- do Germany and her EU allies have the balls to intervene?

 

The Kremlin will never attack if they believe the answer is yes because then they're fighting Germany, Ukraine, and Poland for starters before we decide what  the Scandinavians will do- let alone Britain which could depend on gas for 70% of demand soon, or France- the whole EU could join in. It?s not cost effective.

 

So if Russia attacks it will do so believing the EU powers will not have the temerity to intervene.

  

For there to be a war at all, Russia has to have miscalculated dramatically. I believe this is possible as the Russians may mistake the European preference for using ?soft power? rather than overt military intervention as opposed to other great powers for cowardice. One can imagine ?We shall not go gently into the night? style speeches being made in Warsaw and Berlin- because if the Kremlin is allowed to essentially annex one sovereign nation- where will it go next? It will go west and attempt to reassert it?s spheres of influence in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

 
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Godofgamblers       8/31/2009 2:39:17 AM
I agree with you that Ukraine would be paramount in this scenario. Good quote about the importance of Ukraine as well (and good dylan thomas quote too hehe).
 
I'll leave it to someone who knows the limits of German Army logistics to comment on how far inland the German forces could move into Russia, though i suspect it is not far. I suspect the same goes for the Poles.
 
The problem with the scenario is that the Germans would have no stomach for such a battle except if it were purely on a defensive level. The Poles would love to take territory but truthfully speaking, territory in modern day Ukraine rather than Russia.... So again, this scenario is very hard to envision.
 
(Rumors in the Polish press (Gazeta Wyborcza) that the US is pulling back from missle shield in Poland btw.... don't know if anyone has heard this)
 
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Hugo    Empires and Russians   8/31/2009 4:23:10 AM
 "I am trying to remember the name of the man who said.."
 
?Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine, suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.?
 
Zbigniew Brzezinski
 
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Parmenion       8/31/2009 7:45:17 AM

 "I am trying to remember the name of the man who said.."

 

?Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine, suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.?

 

Zbigniew Brzezinski


Thanks Hugo.
And I agree with you GoG- all the Germans and Poles can hope to do logistically and politically is push the Russian back to their own borders. Any more than that and they're overstretched while fighting a multi-million man army with nukes on it's home turf, with no political support to do so.
 
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Parmenion       8/31/2009 3:31:13 PM

Germany is a Nato member.  Germany will never fight Russia over some crappy East European shitholes.

 And this is a great example of the kind of attitude that the Kremlin would count upon if they decided to go empire building.
 
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LB    Non Event   8/31/2009 8:45:13 PM
In 1941 Germany invaded the USSR with 3.5 million men, including it's allies.  The German Army today has about 135,000 men and another 35,000 in the reserves for an army of 6 brigades (+2 airborne) supported by about 40 Typhoons, 50 F-4's, and 200 Tornadoes.  Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons while Germany has none.  Your parameters of "today" preclude this happening.
 
Hell Poland today has 12 brigades (+2 airborne/air assault) and could contribute 120 combat aircraft.  Germany and Poland simply do not have a military structure that allows such fantasies "today".  
 
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Godofgamblers       8/31/2009 10:39:36 PM

Germany is a Nato member.  Germany will never fight Russia over some crappy East European shitholes.

Your attitude toward Eastern Europeans is very disappointing.
What's more it flies in the face of German history.
 
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Parmenion       9/1/2009 7:17:36 AM

In 1941 Germany invaded the USSR with 3.5 million men, including it's allies.  The German Army today has about 135,000 men and another 35,000 in the reserves for an army of 6 brigades (+2 airborne) supported by about 40 Typhoons, 50 F-4's, and 200 Tornadoes.  Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons while Germany has none.  Your parameters of "today" preclude this happening.

 

Hell Poland today has 12 brigades (+2 airborne/air assault) and could contribute 120 combat aircraft.  Germany and Poland simply do not have a military structure that allows such fantasies "today".  


 
LB: I respect a guy who comes out from the offset with numbers. Numbers and analysis and then more numbers are my favourite things for questions like these.

My scenario was more political rather than based on an in depth research of the man power of both armies.
I would be interested though, since you seem to have done the research- how many troops you think Russia could support, logistically speaking? I remember reading someone fairly respected on here post that Georgia was about the limit at the moment.
 
Ukraine is the key and I believe they could contibute forces on about the scale of Poland or Germany if not the same quality.
 
Also I have said that all the allies would have to do is hold off the Russians- not mount an invasion. So the Russians would have to be supporting troops further away than they did in Georgia. -Also just a quibble here- but I read on WIKI that the German reservists amount to something like 300,000 not 35,000? Maybe you were adjusting for what you believe the Germans could realistically support out of that 300,000?
 
I'm not sure the Russians would use nukes except to defend their own territory since Germany and Poland are Nato members- and they would risk UK, French and most importantly US becoming involved. Better a limited war over all they wish to acheive which is Ukraine.
 
I suppose there is also and argument for saying that there would be a full NATO response to Ukraine being invaded- in which case Germany and Poland become only the vanguard of a much more formiddable force.
 
 
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