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Subject: Braking the Iranian military puzzle
Bluewings12    9/27/2009 4:33:33 PM
Imaginary scenario . let 's say that the USA , France , the UK and Israel want to use military strikes to try to destroy or slowdown the Iranian nuclear military program (if such exists) . What would be the best way to do it ? Who would do what , what with , etc . I think that a positive debate could see us ~posters~ coming with an half decent war plan . It is not about a pissing contest but about building a REALISTIC war operation against Iran 's actual and foreseen nuclear facilities and infrastructures . A USA , France , UK , Israel coalition could mount a 1 to 4 days bombimb campaign , that I am sure of . How would we do it ? Where from ? What with ? For how long ? Etc ... I have few ideas already , what are yours ? Cheers .
 
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Bluewings12       9/27/2009 4:40:04 PM
It would be nice if someone who knows much about Iran 's air defense and airforce would play the Iranian side , just to keep the "attacker" on track ;-)
Anyone ?
 
Cheers .
 
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Bluewings12       9/27/2009 4:57:05 PM
On my side , I 'll provide infos on what us French can do and where from . My purpose will be to try to integrate the French Forces to a coalition plan .
 
First question , what the Israeli AirForce can do on the second day (we don 't want them to strike first , it would be counter productive) . The first strikes will most probably comes from the Sea and from the Air (Tomahawks , Apaches , Storm Shadows , etc ) .
Second question , how many Carriers the USA and the UK are willing to use ?
Third question , will the US and the UK use any ground bases (airports) in the region ? Which ones ?
Fourth question , can we command and direct Commando Ops on Iranian soil to help the destruction on the ground (and bring our personals back home safe) ?
Fifth question : Is it possible to do from point 1 to point 4 within the UN rules ?
 
Cheers . 
 
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Bluewings12       9/27/2009 5:15:42 PM
""Fifth question : Is it possible to do from point 1 to point 4 within the UN rules ?""
 
The Operation(s) would start around March next year (2010) after the next two G5+1 reunions (USA , Russia , France , UK , China and Germany) .
 
Cheers .
 
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albywan       9/27/2009 8:44:41 PM
Some more questions:
Do you want us to talk about a possible counter to the "Tanker war" or the closure of the Straits of Hormuz?
 
Do we also need to make assumptions as to what China/Russia/Pakistan's response will also be?
 
Are we to be at all concerned about collateral damage, either to Iranian citizens or to everyone in the west as terror attacks escalates?
 
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YelliChink    Bluewings   9/28/2009 12:21:59 AM
It's easy to start a war. Just pick your favorite Iran nuke sites and send B-2 bombers. 
 
However, you need to ask the following question if you really are a serious strategist:
 
1. What are the goals of military action against Iran?
2. What means do I have for achieving those goals?
3. What are the enemy means of retaliation?
4. What are the consequences for the military action?
 
Unfortunately, we are likely not seeing any solid action against Iran until another 6 million Jews are murdered. Those Persians have been there for thousands of years, and they certainly are good strategy player. They have many puppets and many strings. Let's hope that's not gonna happen, but I don't see how to prevent that from happening without being a total ass first.
 
 
 
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smitty237       9/28/2009 12:40:22 AM
What the hell, I'll play.  First off, I think that if we were even able to form a "Coalition of the Willing" that incorporated the US, France, and the UK (I doubt any other European countries would join in any meaningful way) I have to believe that they would do their damndest to keep Israel on the sidelines.  I think they would do this for the same reasons they kept Israel out of the 1991 Gulf War (Desert Storm).  If Israel were to drop so much as a single bomb on Iran, then everyone in the Muslim world consider it a war of Israel and her allies against the Muslims in Iran.  Every single Iranian civilian casualty would be paraded in the world media as another Zionist war crime.  If the Americans, Brits, and French did allow Israel to participate then they would be causing irreparable damage to relations in the Muslim world and push Muslim countries to build closer relations with Russia and China.  In other words, it's the Cold War all over again. 
 
I would assume that the US would have to send two to three carriers to the Gulf, and I would assume that a lot of the bombers would be taking of from Diego Garcia.  American, British, and French fighters and fighter bombers would take off from bases in Afghanistan, and in the case of the US and Britain, Iraq.  I would expect most of the attacks to be precision, surgical airstrikes on specific targets.  The Obama Administration is very war (and military) averse, so if he could even summon enough courage to even launch an attack, I would expect it to be formulated so that it causes as few casualties as possible to both sides.  Frankly, I would expect a coordinated military strike would some damage, but it would be pretty much half assed because Obama is afraid of angering the Muslim world and his left wing supporters.  Any attack would be designed to delay development of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, not destroy it. 
 
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usajoe1       9/28/2009 1:00:59 AM

As long as Carter Jr. is in the White House there will not be a strike on Iran, period! Obama those not have the stomach to lunch such an attack that would turn the whole ME upside down. Europe those not have the capabilites to go at it alone, and outside of France and UK no one in Europe would even support such an action. Israel will not go against the US, and try to do this alone for obvious reasons. It's sad to say but all we are going to see is some more meaningless sanctions and a nuclear armed Iran in a couple of years.

 
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Basilisk Station       9/28/2009 10:56:43 AM

As long as Carter Jr. is in the White House there will not be a strike on Iran, period! Obama those not have the stomach to lunch such an attack that would turn the whole ME upside down. Europe those not have the capabilites to go at it alone, and outside of France and UK no one in Europe would even support such an action. Israel will not go against the US, and try to do this alone for obvious reasons. It's sad to say but all we are going to see is some more meaningless sanctions and a nuclear armed Iran in a couple of years.


Yes, it's a shame we'll never see strikes on NK and Iran like those GWB made. He really knew how to set back their nuclear programs and stopped those cold didn't he.
 
Perhaps if GWB hadn't squandered the US's credibility on such things with the trumped up charges against Iraq, we might have been able to do something about the actual threats GWB ignored and let fester.
 
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Bluewings12       9/28/2009 1:57:51 PM
Albywan :
""Some more questions:
Do you want us to talk about a possible counter to the "Tanker war" or the closure of the Straits of Hormuz?""
 
Yes , definitely . We need to secure the Strait .
 
""Do we also need to make assumptions as to what China/Russia/Pakistan's response will also be?""
 
They stay put . No one wants to see a WW3 .
 
""Are we to be at all concerned about collateral damage""
 
Of course ! Did you ever think otherwise ??? The goal is not to kill Iranians but to destroy their nuclear facilities .We can rebuilt them later under Nato mandate for civilian purposes only .
 
""or to everyone in the west as terror attacks escalates?""
 
We can take care of this (at least in France) . Our Secret Service and DST are the best in Europe and France (so far) stopped every terrorist attack before it happened . British Scotland Yard and the Spanish Internal Police Security unfortunatly failed once each but they are up to speed now . No need to worry about terror attacks and if it happens , France will not stop the fight (like the Spanish did after the spanish bombed train) .
 
YelliChink :
""It's easy to start a war. Just pick your favorite Iran nuke sites and send B-2 bombers.""
 
Ok , noted . Do you need a hand or we just watch and eat smelly cheese and drink wine ?
 
""Unfortunately, we are likely not seeing any solid action against Iran until another 6 million Jews are murdered.""
 
??? You are mistaking . In case "nuclear push come to shove" , Israel and the USA will vitrify Iran . Then , China and Russia will not act , they just have too much to loose . Iran is nothing for Russia and China , they are not going to fight Israel , the USA (and maybe Europe) for the Persians , no way ! They have better things to do , especialy China ;-)
 
Smitty , I think that you have it alright . Details are missing but we see the overall picture .
Now , we need an OOB (Order Of Battle) . Who is doing what , where from , what with , in which numbers ?
We need : 
- To keep the Strait clear (who , how many ships , etc (think about mines))
- To get intels (sat pictures and so on) on the Iranian ground Air Defense . Who can do that ?
- To strike fast and in a meaningfull manner at the very first strikes . (who , where from , type of aircraft , type of munition , numbers , escorts , etc)
- To avoid being hit in return ~possible Iranian counter-attack~ which bring the problem of the Iranian airfields and missile sites .
- To keep the civilian casualties as low as possible
 
Operations must last no more than 7 days .
 
Cheers .
 
 
 
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usajoe1       9/28/2009 2:27:30 PM

As long as Carter Jr. is in the White House there will not be a strike on Iran, period! Obama those not have the stomach to lunch such an attack that would turn the whole ME upside down. Europe those not have the capabilites to go at it alone, and outside of France and UK no one in Europe would even support such an action. Israel will not go against the US, and try to do this alone for obvious reasons. It's sad to say but all we are going to see is some more meaningless sanctions and a nuclear armed Iran in a couple of years.


Yes, it's a shame we'll never see strikes on NK and Iran like those GWB made. He really knew how to set back their nuclear programs and stopped those cold didn't he.
 
Perhaps if GWB hadn't squandered the US's credibility on such things with the trumped up charges against Iraq, we might have been able to do something about the actual threats GWB ignored and let fester.
 
NK? why in the hell would we attack NK. The only way the US will go to war with NK is if the North invades the South. Outside of that scnerio, there is less then 1% chance we will ever go to war with that country. The reason is simple; the north can destroy Seoul before we can get all of our forces there to mount up a strong response, and push them back. We are not going to destroy one of the up and coming economical powerhouses, just to fight the North for the sake of fighting a dictator, who just plays games and in reality does not want a war either.
 
Now on Iran. I always said the GWB should of took care of Iran before doing anything in Iraq. The Iranian regime was ten times more dangerous, and is the worlds leading sponsor of international terrorism. Iran really is persuing wmd's, it also has a much better equiped military that can actually threaten Isreal and US interests. Unlike Saddam, there leaders are religious loons, and are the most dangerous counrty on the face of the earth. In closing, yes I think Bush also made a mistake for not going after Iran first. I think his hatred for Saddam got the best of his judgment.
 
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