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Subject: Honduras??
Nanheyangrouchuan    10/4/2009 9:08:06 PM
Considering the players involved and the implications, no discussion? I'm in Honduras right now.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       10/6/2009 8:30:18 PM
Right now the capitol is packed with diplomats and officials trying to get Michelletti and Zelaya to sign the San Juan Accord.
This would put Zelaya back in office but with little power and the government wouldn't press charges against him.  This would effectively put the OAS in charge of the country, even though none of the major powers accept anything the OAS says.
 
BTW, Zelaya's own party kicked him out.

No riots here in San Pedro Sula, lots of support for Pepe.
 
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smitty237       10/8/2009 8:17:32 PM
Sorry I didn't see this one sooner. 
 
The Obama Administration has really dropped the ball on this one.  The Honduran Constitution expressly forbids Zelaya from running for reelection at the end of his current term, and there are no provisions in the Constitution to lift this ban.  Zelaya was trying to do an end around by arousing popular support, but the Honduran Supreme Court told him that his actions violated the Constitution.  When Zelaya couldn't take no for an answer and continued to stoke popular support to remove term limits, the military acted and forced him to resign and leave the country. 
 
There are clear historic reasons why the Hondurans (and other Central and South American countries) are leery of their presidents serving unlimited terms.  For centuries most of Latin America was ruled by kings, caudillos, generals, dictators, and "presidents-for-life."  Some politicians managed to get themselves elected to office in free and fair elections, only to use their power to manipulate the system so they could remain in office forever.  Often the only remedy was for the military to move in and remove the dictator, but unfortunately too many generals with stars in their eyes abused this authority and merely installed themselves as president or hand-picked a presidential appointee that would abide by their whims. 
 
As democracy began to really take root in Latin America in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, most of the governments in those countries realized that they would need to place safeguards in their constitutions to prevent a repeat the seemingly endless cycle of dictators coming to power, only to be deposed by a military coup and replaced by another dictator.  The only way to do this is to place the military under civilian control, and to place strict limitations on the civilian government.  One method of limiting the power of the politicians is to impose term limits.  Some people regard term limits as pointedly undemocratic because it prevents the voters from voting for their chosen (or even most qualified) candidates, but even the United States recognized some sixty years ago that term limits on the president are probably a good idea. 
 
Honduras has been especially susceptible to the cycle of dictators and coups, so they made a point of placing term limits in their constitution so presidents would have to serve their elected terms and then step down for another candidate elected by the people in free elections.  However, in keeping with Latin American tradition, Zelaya decided that he did not want to step down from power and expressed a desire to change the constitution so he could serve indefinitely.  Since there was no process in place to change the constitution to remove term limits, Zelaya rallied his supporters to demand a referendum as to whether term limits for the presidency should be abolished.  This alarmed a lot of members of the Honduran government because it appeared that Zelaya was disregarding the constitution for his own purposes.  For many of them this sounded way too familiar for their tastes.  After Zelaya ignored the Supreme Court and continued with his bid to seek another term in direct violation of the constitution, the only entity that could stop him was the military. 
 
Zelaya's leftist supporters, including unfortunately US President Barack Obama, immediately called the removal of Zelaya a coup and demanded that he be returned to power.  One of Zelaya's biggest supporters, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, doesn't really help his cause since Chavez was able to manipulate the Venezuelan political system to crush his opponents and effectively install himself as president-for-life, and I'm sure that this is not lost on Hondurans.  Other Zelaya supporters include Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega and Cuba's Catro brothers........none of them particularly fond of western style multi-party democracy.  Obama and like minded liberal friends have convinced themselves that all military coups are evil for any reason, and that the only acceptable solution is to immediately return Zelaya to power (I doubt they view the assasination attempt on Hitler and the subsequent coup attempt by select members of the German military as evil, but I digress).  This shows a gross naivette of the political realities of the region.  There is nothing wrong with the US closely monitoring the situation, but by immediately passing judgement and inserting himself into the situation President Obama has provided another example of his political immaturity and impulsiveness. 
 
I hope that the Hondurans can work something out that will get the international commun
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       10/8/2009 9:28:35 PM
Obama made a bad decision based on bad information, much of it from the US ambassador.  Americans who have met him don't like him, he's very much the "Yanqui" down here waving the US flag and looking down on locals.
 He should be canned immediately.
 
But now the White House is on the fence, do take note that the State Dept issued a statement saying Zelaya's hiding in the Brazilian embassy (Olympic hosts and shelter of "el Presidentes") was foolish.  No other nation has made such a statement, not even the high and mighty Canadians or Europeans, who all want Zelaya back in office until the election.
 
The international community and international opinion have truly proven to be worthless and the whole world has turned its back on a few million people trying to make the best out of what little their country has, and they want desperately to make rule of law work. They all acknowledge that the world loves dictators because they are predictable and it is easier to deal with one strongman and his toadies than a complex democracy with many facets and layers.  Mercs should volunteer their time and training as well as shooting paid thugs and grafitti artists from Guatemala, who are spraying pro-Zelaya, anti-gringo slogans but doing it in Guatemalan slang.  A slight error on the part of Castro/Chavez/Lula.
 
 Zelaya is a member of the Blue party, I am in San Pedro Sula, a blue city, and the leading candidate is Blue, Pepe.  Mel is the Red candidate and a close second.  Micheletti is also Blue.
 
So the ruling party got rid of their Nixon and the world says "not so fast".  
 
From my driver, local gov't workers and a few upper class people I've met, "If Zelaya returns, people will die".
 
Apparently Zelaya was also using his ranch near Villenueva to run drugs to the US for Chavez, 8-10 flights a day.
 
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Panther       10/10/2009 8:38:56 AM
I can not make up my mind on who this will hurt the most outside of the ordinary Hondurans and their nation and what their perceptions of us might be. Will it hurt the US as a whole or only Obama himself? Right now i am inclined too say that this in the end will only hurt the US as a whole the most and not affect Mr. Obama in the least?
 
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       10/10/2009 1:31:23 PM
I am bit confused as to how this is US centric?  The US has changed its stance from unwaveringly pro-Zelaya to neutrality, in part on behalf of countries.  I can quote the country manger for Caterpillar "hey, we just want to do business and will work with who ever is running the country."
 
The rest of the world, including the rest of the OAS, is solidly Zelaya.
 
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Panther       10/11/2009 8:33:33 AM

I am bit confused as to how this is US centric?  The US has changed its stance from unwaveringly pro-Zelaya to neutrality, in part on behalf of countries.  I can quote the country manger for Caterpillar "hey, we just want to do business and will work with who ever is running the country."

 

The rest of the world, including the rest of the OAS, is solidly Zelaya.



In that case, i will sit back and watch what will happen. A minor issue in the long run that has major possibilities of blowing back on is, even though you are correct that this is not a US centric issue as of current? I do fully expect the Honduras to be held up in the future, by our many critics, as just another example of the "supposed" many dictatorships the US propped up or it's desire too; Regardless of the facts surrounding this! We shall see if this plays out....
 
Til then, take care of yourself down there Nan.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       10/11/2009 11:14:13 AM




I am bit confused as to how this is US centric?  The US has changed its stance from unwaveringly pro-Zelaya to neutrality, in part on behalf of countries.  I can quote the country manger for Caterpillar "hey, we just want to do business and will work with who ever is running the country."


 



The rest of the world, including the rest of the OAS, is solidly Zelaya.









In that case, i will sit back and watch what will happen. A minor issue in the long run that has major possibilities of blowing back on is, even though you are correct that this is not a US centric issue as of current? I do fully expect the Honduras to be held up in the future, by our many critics, as just another example of the "supposed" many dictatorships the US propped up or it's desire too; Regardless of the facts surrounding this! We shall see if this plays out....

 

Til then, take care of yourself down there Nan.

Of course the US will take the blame if things go bad, that is the way the world works, never mind the Brazilians are harboring a Honduran felon in Honduras, never mind pro-Chavez grafitti in downtown San Pedro Sula and Tegus, never mind the EU, UN and the whole of the OAS lining up behind Zelaya, demanding a would be strongman who openly broke the law be put back into office.  No matter what the US does, we'll take the majority of the blame, so maybe the best position is to do nothing.
 
 
 
 Other than that, I wonder what the non-US members have to say about their countries' support for Zelaya.
 
Explain yourselves, please.  The global community sucks a fat one.
 
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