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Subject: Mikhail Tukhachevsky - Could He Have Defeated Germany In War?
CJH    3/24/2005 10:49:58 AM
Paul Carrel wrote about Mikhail Tukhachevsky as being or possibly being the best general since Napolean. He also wrote how Stalin, as his political commissar at the time, interfered with his force dispositions on the eve of the Battle of Warsaw in 1920. Tukhachevsky was believed to be intent on overthrowing Stalin and establishing a military dictatorship. He was in command of the Siberian military district when Stalin "invited" him to Moscow for May Day. He decided he was compelled to take the risk he had been set up and leave the safety of his command for Moscow. When he arrived in Moscow, he was arrested, tried(!) and shot in the Lubyanka basement. The purge of the Red Army officer corps proceeded from thereon. Carrel wrote of Rhienhardt Heidrich arranging the doctoring of a Tukhachevsky letter on file at the Reichswehr HQ and having one of his agents sell this "secret information" to the Czechs who, it was accurately anticipated, would immediately relay it to the Soviets. Apparently, Hitler had had to decide between Tukhachevsky and Stalin and he chose Stalin and rejected Stalin's enemy and potential successor, Tukhachevsky. Carrel professed no idea whether this doctored letter was ever actually used against Tukhachevsky. The suggestion is that Hitler was convinced Tukhachevsky was bent on overthrowing the Communist regime and establishing a military dictatorship. Hitler was so impressed with Tukhachevsky's reputation, he decided to scheme at his demise. Assuming this is what motivated Hitler, was Hitler right in not wanting Tukhachevsky to be able to come to power in Russia? Could Tukhachevsky have stopped the Wehrmacht or could Tukhachevsky have conquered Europe as the military dictator of Russia?
 
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Carl S    RE:Mikhail Tukhachevsky - Could He Have Defeated Germany In War?   12/17/2005 5:30:30 PM
I dont know about Tukachevsky himself. He did represent a Soviet Army that was fairly well trained. That is before the purge. Postulating Tukachevsky as being in command in 1941 suggests the Soviet Army still has capable officers leading its formations. It also suggests the better doctrine & tactics of the mid 1930s would still be the standard, rather than the sorry doctrine that actually existed in 1941. Finally it is possible that the various improvements contemplated by Tukachevsky & others would have been implemented. Assuming all that occured the Soviet army might not need a genius to lead it. Properly led and trained it would have likely shot the Wehrmacht to pieces in a few weeks with or with out Tukachevsky.
 
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Carl S    RE:Mikhail Tukhachevsky - Could He Have Defeated Germany In War?   12/18/2005 1:17:53 PM
Let me recast that remark. It come off a little hypervetalated. Probably a competent Soviet army in 1941 could have inflicted the same losses the Wehrmacht suffered between June & early November 1941 (five months worth) in two or three months. While not disentigrating as in the summer of 1941. It would be a interesting thing to try on the gameboard.
 
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Photon       1/4/2008 4:07:59 PM
With the majority of Red Army officer corps stayed intact, the Russians would have not been as savagely spanked as it happened historically in 1941.  From the military perspective, the historical catastrophe was merely a consequence of the following factors:  a) Lack of command/staff continuity, b) Rapid pre-war buildup of the Red Army with inadequate number of qualified officers, c) Lack of political leadership in providing firm commitment to properly direct the Red Army, d) Rapid buildup of military production with inadequate logistical backing.  With these gloomy set of problems, the Russians had to face the battle-experienced Germans.  Ouch!
 
Even with Tukhachevsky around, I think the Russians would have had tough time against the Germans, though not as severly as in the historical 1941.  Bear in mind that the Russians were going through an enormous amount of internal uphevals throughout the '30s even without the purges:  a) Rapid industrialization, b) Establishing collective farms at the expense of private farms, c) Rapid military build-up (especially towards the late '30s), d) Relentless expansion of Kremlin's power.
 
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Carl S       1/4/2008 5:00:44 PM
One other critical variable of 1941 was the ammount of tactical suprise the Germans had.  Specific orders were sent to the army commanders during the preceding week and especially on 20 June, which kept them from taking any positive action in the face of German preperations.  Were Tugachevsky & a bettertrained Soviet army subjected to the same orders the result would not have been much different.

Conversely had the Soviet military been placed on alert a few days before the initial week would have been so much different.

The presence of the pre Purge officer corps matters in the months following the intial attack.  The formations in the interior will be better trained, the reservists newly mobilizing will be better prepared, the training schools will turn out better soldiers through the autum and winter.
 
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CJH       1/4/2008 10:56:39 PM
Of course historically, Stalin had a "Rote Kapelle" or "Red Choir" or "Red Orchestra" spy network operating in the German high command. I remember reading how in 1943, Soviet soldiers were trained in tactics for dealing with the Tiger Ferdinand before that tank was ever seen on the battlefield.
 
The above observations with reference to Mikhail Tukhachevsky and Stalin seem to beg the question as to whether the success of a Tukhachevsky led Russia would be possible with a better developed grand strategy than Stalin's.
 
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Photon       1/4/2008 11:37:07 PM

One other critical variable of 1941 was the ammount of tactical suprise the Germans had.  Specific orders were sent to the army commanders during the preceding week and especially on 20 June, which kept them from taking any positive action in the face of German preperations.  Were Tugachevsky & a bettertrained Soviet army subjected to the same orders the result would not have been much different.

Conversely had the Soviet military been placed on alert a few days before the initial week would have been so much different.

The presence of the pre Purge officer corps matters in the months following the intial attack.  The formations in the interior will be better trained, the reservists newly mobilizing will be better prepared, the training schools will turn out better soldiers through the autum and winter.
I think the problem with the Russian pre-war preparation was strategic, not merely tactical, in nature.  Even if they were given more advanced warnings of the impending German invasion, they would have been brought down by their own logistical shortcomings.  (Even their supposedly better-manned and equipped mechanized units lacked adequate transports to move infantry and artillery, let alone move supplies.  Just about every units had dismal logistics.)

For the Russians to have had better chance, they would have had to sort out their own kinks starting in the late '30s at the latest as proper strategy implies many years to implement.  A list of historically flawed preparations:

1.  The locations of supply dumps:  Historically, too many of them were located too close to the front, which were easily captured or destroyed by the initial German onslaught.

2.  The locations of airfields:  Historically, the bulk of pre-war Red Air Force got shredded in the first day, as they were poorly-camouflaged and they had too many aircraft relative to available airfields.

3.  The deployment patterns of the Red Army facing the west:  Many of their higher-level formations found their subordinate units too scattered; coupled with poor logistics, their subordinate units had to face the Germans piecemeal.  Not to mention that they have been neglecting their pre-1939 fortified regions along their borders.  To add insult to injury, the overall strategic deployment was wrong -- they deployed their western forces under the assumption that the main German onslaught would take place south of the Pripet Marshes, but the majority of German combat power was concentrated north of the marshes!

4.  The lack of coordination within the high-command and the lack of independence of the high-command:  The political leadership had tight-control over both NKVD and GRU at the expense of the military.  Meanwhile, both organizations were more interested in second-guessing their political leadership, and the military was not doing any better.

5.  The lack of staff and field exercises for wartime deployment:  For the Reds to have faced the Germans on a better term, they would have to conduct numerous large-scale deployment exercises and sort out kinks.  (Obviously, this would have gone counter to Stalin's desire to not provoke Hitler ... LOL.)  But you cannot just order your subordinate leaders to move their units from X to Y on a short notice.  You have to make allowance to train them; in return, they train their soldiers.
 
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Carl S       1/6/2008 9:47:30 PM
Photon.  You are decribing the differences between the pre purge army of 1930-1937  and the post purge army of 1938-1940.

From the post civil war era in the 1920s the Soviet military had established  professional training methods, reorganized into a proper defense force, built a decent infrastructure (barracks, airfield, classrooms, supply warehouses....  A comand staff was trained to serve the field commanders, and a support staff for the military at large. 

While not perfect the skill and support levels were as good as anyone elses in the 1930s.  Further more the Soviet army had not only experimented with but had established mechanized corps with tank divsions, and motorized support, and a mobile warfare doctrine for these.  

All this was tossed away with the purges.  Not only were the bulk of the trained officers eliminated, but the new chiefs implimented a return to the docrines of the 1920s.  The mechanized corps trained for armored & combined arms warfare were eliminated, and motorization of the army neglected.  The prepblems you note in your #5 derive directly from this.  Those problems were further aggravated by the vast expansion of the army which diluted the leader talent with the new conscripts.

Your points 1, 2, 3 are primarily the result of moving the standing forces forward into the newly accquired Polish territory too rapidly.  The unskilled staff officers could not cope with relocating and conducting their other responsibilities at the same time.

"For the Russians to have had better chance, they would have had to sort out their own kinks starting in the late '30s at the latest"

You are correct here.  Understand that until 1937 the Soviet Army had properly prepared for war, and had regressed for the next four years.  The original question here asked what might have happend had the purge not occured and the Sovviet military not wrecked in the ways you so ablely described.
 
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Photon       5/29/2008 3:10:00 AM
Going back to this thread after several months.  Now that I am at it, I think within the inter-war discussions on the Russian strategy, Tukhachevsky has been overrepresented.  His underrepresented counterpart was Svechin.  (He wrote a book titled Strategy, in which he emphasized 'strategic defense'.)

Overview of Svechin's thoughts:  Soviet Union, compared to more industrialized Western powers, is underdeveloped with a huge 'peasant rear'.  It is unlikely for the Russians to gain superiority during the initial period of war, because the likely opponents would have mobilized earlier and have industrial superiority.  It will require trading space and time for the Soviet Union to mobilize.  Avoid catastrophic initial defeat during the initial phase; wage 'war of attrition' instead of 'war of annihilation'.

Unfortunately for Svechin, he was not only ostracized by the Communist Party (because his 'defensive' ideas go against the Party's 'revolutionary [hence offensive]' ideas), but also ostracized by the majority of Red Army top-brass, including Tukhachevsky.  As a matter of fact, Tukhachevsky accused Svechin of his conservatism and not seeing the potentials of mechanized 'war of annihilation'.  Svechin was even skeptical about the Soviet 5-year industrial plans -- one cannot change a heavily agarian society like the Soviet Union into an industrialized society in a short period of time.  (It is not for lack of trying, but one can only achieve so much in such a little time.)  Compared to Tukhachevky, Svechin showed greater concerns over logistics at the strategic level.  At the end, it did not matter much, as both of them were wiped out in the 1937 purge.
 
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Herald12345    Historical note.   5/29/2008 7:34:10 PM
The Russians had transformed themselves from an agrarian society in 1918 to an industrial one of sorts by 1958.

Remark that it took them TWICE as long as it did the United States 1870-1890

But it was quite possible for it to be done rapidly from nothing as Japan demonstrated 1868-1898 when it did.

Industrialization was not the Russian problem, incompetence at the top was.

Herald.

 
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CJH       5/31/2008 12:38:09 PM
IIRC, Paul Carell wrote about a collaboration between the Reichswehr and the Red Army during the period: 1923-1933.
 
He began the tale about this collaboration by relating a story about two German government customs officials and a crate labeled as containing machine parts. The officials discovered that the crate actually contained a body of a dead German military man who had died in a training accident and was being returned home for burial. The one official who was in on the scheme swore the other (Who produced his Frei Korps pay card) to secrecy.
 
In the USSR, Russians and Germans attended staff schools and participated in war games together. The Germans got to have a training submarine and got to train with aircraft out of sight of Allied Control Commissioners.
 
The internationally ostracized Soviets and the Versailles Treaty restricted Germans worked together in secret at this until Hitler was informed about it shortly after coming to power. Hitler had it stopped immediately.
 
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