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Subject: Iranian Nuclear Documents and Drawings
Arbalest    2/1/2006 2:14:49 AM
It seems that some more pieces to the Iranian nuclear puzzle became available earlier yesterday (31 January 2006). "Iran obtained documents and drawings on the black market that serve no other purpose than to make an atomic warhead." From: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060131/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear;_ylt=ApKd2QDdZ3HRN51VIzqfcnCs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b2NibDltBHNlYwM3MTY- Some interesting excerpts: "The four-page report also criticized Iran for refusing to provide interviews with at least one nuclear scientist linked to the military and dismissing requests for information on "tests related to high explosives and the design of a missile re-entry vehicle, all of which could have a military nuclear dimension." and: "In the brief report obtained Tuesday, however, the agency said bluntly that the 15 pages of text and drawings showing how to cast fissile uranium into metal was "related to the fabrication of nuclear weapon components." Asked about the finding, a senior diplomat close to the IAEA declined to elaborate but emphasized that the documents had no other use." and: "The documents in question were given to Iran by members of the nuclear black market network, the IAEA said. Iran has claimed it did not ask for the documents but was given them anyway as part of other black market purchases." It seems that the documents may have been in Iranian hands for at least a year. They are apparently from the same source as the documents that the Libyans surrendered in 2003. But now that the politicians are rattling sabers loudly, the importance of the documents seems much clearer. That the Iranians have plans to make a nuclear weapon is probably not news. That they are working on reentry vehicles and making bomb material castings is very newsworthy. The IAEA statements are clear. It will be interesting to see just how much play the plans receive with the UN. Will the UN act? The speculation that Iran revealed the plans in error might be correct, but the disclosure sends a message while maintaining plausible deniability. Plans supplied by a black market source can, for political purposes, be "spun" to be source material for comic books. Considering the recent French and German statements about nuclear weapons, perhaps the EU will decide to take increasing economic and political action, until Iran cooperates. Perhaps Russia and China will put more pressure on Iran. Then there’s the Israeli point of view; maybe something will happen before the end of March.
 
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Arbalest    More Links   2/1/2006 7:07:34 PM
Some new links: "Iran Likely Headed to Security Council", http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060201/ap_on_re_mi_ea/nuclear_agency_iran;_ylt=Ai78Kgwpu_w11W.P.kVzr9us0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b2NibDltBHNlYwM3MTY- and "Iran Says It Will Resist 'Bully' Nations", http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060201/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear;_ylt=Ahw.9CcaCbipeZujsVPSrhes0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b3JuZGZhBHNlYwM3MjE- It looks like the black market documents are the excuse to get everyone on board to refer Iran to the Security Council, and that the Iranians are not yet ready to stand up to the Security Council. If the document was actually a plant (the adult version of the burning brown paper bag on the doorstep?) by the Mossad, then it appears to have been a brilliant move. Perhaps an ISO audit next . . . It seems that the Europeans are onboard with this effort. The Russians and Chinese seem likely to try to mediate, and probably get Iran t accept Russian reprocessing services, UN seals, inspections and other requirements, in return for no Security council action. It seems that the day of reckoning has been postponed. Perhaps the next link or two will tell.
 
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Herc the Merc    RE:More Links   2/1/2006 7:41:23 PM
Iran wants the bomb-obviously- despite UN sanctions it won't stop. So....
 
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Herc the Merc    RE:Iranian Nuclear Documents and Drawings-no dice sez Iran   2/1/2006 7:50:47 PM
UNSC Referral Will Trigger Uranium Enrichment Gholamali Haddad-Adel TEHRAN, Feb. 1--Parliament Speaker Gholamali Haddad-Adel said on Wednesday if Iran’s nuclear issue is referred to the United Nations Security Council, the government will have an obligation to resume uranium enrichment. Addressing the open parliament session, Haddad-Adel said referring Iran to the UNSC would indicate “a great weakness“ for an international organization like the International Atomic Energy Agency, IRNA reported. “That a number of countries involved in production and proliferation of nuclear weapons should condemn another country and refer it to the UN Security Council through an international body will undermine its credibility,“ he said The speaker stressed that the government is obliged to implement the parliament’s approval and resume uranium enrichment, if the situation does not change. A parliamentary ratification, passed on November 20, 2005, obliges the government to end its voluntary suspension of uranium enrichment, which were undertaken for promoting confidence with the West, if the IAEA decides to refer Iran’s case to the UNSC. Haddad-Adel hoped that constructive negotiations will help forge respect for Iran’s rights and not damage IAEA’s credibility. The speaker congratulated the nation on the return of the late founder of the Islamic Revolution, Imam Khomeini, to the country after years of exile on February 1, 1978.
 
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Admiral Kirk    RE:Iranian Nuclear Documents and Drawings-no dice sez Iran   2/1/2006 7:53:53 PM
Unfortunately, Iran will obtain nuclear weapons. Its unfortunate, because the US is left behind the UN to solve this crisis. China and Russia are stragetic partners with Iran. They will continue to play to politics game and draw this out forever. So Iran get nukes. I have come to learn, so what. It is another matter if they use them. Once they use them, Iran will not exist anymore. Peace Folks. Care to discuss? Admiral Kirk
 
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lightningtest    RE:Iranian Nuclear Documents and Drawings   2/2/2006 11:30:06 AM
Another angle on the distribution of documents to Iran can be found here; http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1678220,00.html this article could be part of a advertising campaign for; State of War : The Secret History of the C.I.A. and the Bush Administration, by James Risen heres some quotes from the guardian stroy interleaved with my take. "...by 2004, it was possible to send high-speed, encrypted messages directly and instantaneously from CIA headquarters to agents in the field who were equipped with small, covert personal communications devices. So the officer at CIA headquarters assigned to handle communications with the agency's spies in Iran .. With a few simple commands sent a secret data flow to one of the Iranian agents in the CIA's spy network. ... But this time, the ease and speed [allowed the] CIA officer [to make] a disastrous mistake. She had sent information to one Iranian agent that exposed an entire spy network; the data could be used to identify virtually every spy the CIA had inside Iran." That bit seems very improbable to me. Effectivly adding your whole address book to the To: or CC: section of a e-mail header wouldn't be possible...surely the software wouldn't allow it... "Mistake piled on mistake. As the CIA later learned, the Iranian who received the download was a double agent. The agent quickly turned the data over to Iranian security officials, and it enabled them to "roll up" the CIA's network throughout Iran...." What do people think about the likely validity of that part of the story? Its the next bit of the story that has caught my interest. Its not clear to me how the rolling up (or not) of US assets in Iran is related to the next part of the story but here goes; "... Deep in the bowels of the CIA, someone [was] wondering: 'Whatever happened to those nuclear blueprints we gave to the Iranians?'" "The story dates back to the Clinton administration and February 2000, when one .... Russian scientist walked Vienna's winter streets .... he was carrying technical designs for a TBA 480 high-voltage block ... needed to create a perfect implosion that could trigger a nuclear chain reaction inside a small spherical core. It was one of the greatest engineering secrets in the world, providing the solution to one of a handful of problems that separated nuclear powers such as the United States and Russia from rogue countries..." I reckon "TBA-480" is a poisson rouge. But does the story hold up to any scrutiny, surely this is pure ficton...right?
 
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Arbalest    Iran may have just blinked   2/10/2006 7:06:12 PM
Read: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060210/ap_on_re_mi_ea/malaysia_khatami;_ylt=ArXRiLOc0DMkOIIvOoqAyMys0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b2NibDltBHNlYwM3MTY- Khatami seems to be arguing for reform in the Muslim world. Perhaps the cartoon controversy, and the Muslim response, have given some Iranian leaders enough time out of the spotlight to reflect and look for alternatives. Certainly the various Muslim riots have made things clear to most people in the West. I’m guessing that various diplomatic conversations have changed tone over the last week, and not to the Iranian’s liking.
 
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PlatypusMaximus    RE:Iran may have just blinked   2/11/2006 11:52:09 PM
"...And the people of the US and Europe should pay a heavy price for becoming hostages to Zionists," -- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Feb. 11, 2006 I'm guessing that bloodthirsty savages don't spend too much time looking for alternatives.
 
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Arbalest    Report From France   2/16/2006 8:19:40 PM
More news: From: http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/02/16/iran.france/index.html >>>"Iran's nuclear activity is a cover for a clandestine weapons program, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy has said . . . ."<<< This, and the recent reports of France fiddling with some of their nuclear warheads to increase the EMP effect, point to a potential French action. It seems unlikely to me, but I suppose that the French Foreign Legion and a few more elite units could mount a serious search-and-destroy action in the Iran backwoods. I suppose that these units might also be able to take out facilities on the edges of populated areas, but I don’t see France, or even Europe, with enough capacity to get enough troops to Iran to do the job. Research time. Perhaps French Intelligence has some credible evidence of a plot against France that involves WMDs, and Iran seems to be somehow connected. Perhaps a smuggling ring was broken up, and some terrorist links were discovered. Perhaps airliners will be subjected to more scrutiny. I think that this means that the German court's ruling forbidding the downing of hijacked airliners has just been overturned. Any links would be appreciated.
 
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Arbalest    RE:Report From France   2/17/2006 4:22:10 PM
And now this: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060217/wl_nm/nuclear_iran_dc;_ylt=AmfcBxwhrM1QsIRUVFoRiEpn.3QA;_ylu=X3oDMTA4NTMzazIyBHNlYwMxNjk2 From the article: >>> "No civilian nuclear program can explain the Iranian nuclear program. So it is a clandestine Iranian military nuclear program," Douste-Blazy told France 2 television. <<< and then: >>> "I suggest that Mr. Douste-Blazy use a diplomatic tone and avoid increasing the tension," said Larijani. <<< It seems that the French threat(s) have caused the Iranian position to "recognize". As I posted earlier, I suspect that the French caught someone doing "something", linked it to Iran, and have explained reality to the Iranians. The Iranian words deal more with negotiation and resolving the crisis, than Iranian rights, which seems to be a good sign. Apparently, the IAEA will still be allowed to monitor the Iranian facilities. Interestingly, a Russian general is quoted, which seems unusual for the mainstream media, and his words are general, not US-oriented. I guess that the Iranians realized that a number of nuclear airbursts would shutdown virtually all aircraft, communications, electronic equipment of all kinds and probably most vehicles in Iran. The initial casualties might be light, although deaths from cancer, leukemia, etc, in later years would likely be a catastrophe. All Iranians would be on foot, government and civilian alike. Defending nuclear facilities in urban areas would be difficult but not impossible. Perhaps the FFL and other units could achieve satisfactory results, given a few weeks. Assistance from the US would guarantee this. Moving government forces to quell civil uprisings would be difficult, and the regime would be in trouble. It seems that enough of the Iranian government believes the French threat(s), and perhaps the crisis really has been averted. If the French really discovered "something", it would be interesting to know what the "something" is.
 
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Shirrush    RE:Report From France   2/27/2006 3:57:40 AM
France's sudden reversal from it's previously genuflected, conciliatory stance toward Iran and, of course, Syria, is no less than a mystery. This can be ascribed, of course, to the near-autocratic structure of their 5th Republic presidential regime, in which the President has the last word on major foreign policy moves. Hariri was Chirac's buddy and business partner. When Hariri was cozy with Damascus, so was Paris, that BTW still blocks the inclusion of the Iranian-led Lebanese Hezbollah in the EU's terrorist organizations list. Since Syria takes it's orders, and it's life blood too, from Iran, it is legitimate to guess that Chirac understands that his friend's assassins have the backing of Teheran, that had to do something in order to thwart attempts to lessen it's noxious influence from the Mediterranean eastern shore.
 
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