It seems that some more pieces to the Iranian nuclear puzzle became available earlier yesterday (31 January 2006).
"Iran obtained documents and drawings on the black market that serve no other purpose than to make an atomic warhead." From: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060131/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear;_ylt=ApKd2QDdZ3HRN51VIzqfcnCs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b2NibDltBHNlYwM3MTY-
Some interesting excerpts:
"The four-page report also criticized Iran for refusing to provide interviews with at least one nuclear scientist linked to the military and dismissing requests for information on "tests related to high explosives and the design of a missile re-entry vehicle, all of which could have a military nuclear dimension."
and:
"In the brief report obtained Tuesday, however, the agency said bluntly that the 15 pages of text and drawings showing how to cast fissile uranium into metal was "related to the fabrication of nuclear weapon components."
Asked about the finding, a senior diplomat close to the IAEA declined to elaborate but emphasized that the documents had no other use."
and:
"The documents in question were given to Iran by members of the nuclear black market network, the IAEA said. Iran has claimed it did not ask for the documents but was given them anyway as part of other black market purchases."
It seems that the documents may have been in Iranian hands for at least a year. They are apparently from the same source as the documents that the Libyans surrendered in 2003. But now that the politicians are rattling sabers loudly, the importance of the documents seems much clearer.
That the Iranians have plans to make a nuclear weapon is probably not news. That they are working on reentry vehicles and making bomb material castings is very newsworthy. The IAEA statements are clear. It will be interesting to see just how much play the plans receive with the UN. Will the UN act?
The speculation that Iran revealed the plans in error might be correct, but the disclosure sends a message while maintaining plausible deniability. Plans supplied by a black market source can, for political purposes, be "spun" to be source material for comic books.
Considering the recent French and German statements about nuclear weapons, perhaps the EU will decide to take increasing economic and political action, until Iran cooperates.
Perhaps Russia and China will put more pressure on Iran.
Then there’s the Israeli point of view; maybe something will happen before the end of March.
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