The US can and will be beaten by Iran. Not in an actual fight, but exactly as they are proceeding - with bluster, bravado, and pointless talks to delay action for several years. They will work the press, and seek to keep the west divided. I believe they can do so. They will achieve nuclear weapons in time, but until then they will build up their conventional forces, in particular their missile forces, to a point it is virtually assured they can close the Persian Gulf. They do not need nukes to do this. They will continue to threaten to do just that. Sanctions, tolerated in the short term, might thus be disasterous for the west in the long term as Iran gets desperate.
As such, I do not believe anyone in the west will be willing to to do anything. No one will be willing to risk the oil. In other words, I believe the West (US and EU) are bluffing. There does not need to be war for Iran to beat the west. In fact, one might contend the west is beaten if there is no war with Iran. |