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Subject: The US can and will be beaten by Iran.
reefdiver    4/7/2006 10:45:03 AM
The US can and will be beaten by Iran. Not in an actual fight, but exactly as they are proceeding - with bluster, bravado, and pointless talks to delay action for several years. They will work the press, and seek to keep the west divided. I believe they can do so. They will achieve nuclear weapons in time, but until then they will build up their conventional forces, in particular their missile forces, to a point it is virtually assured they can close the Persian Gulf. They do not need nukes to do this. They will continue to threaten to do just that. Sanctions, tolerated in the short term, might thus be disasterous for the west in the long term as Iran gets desperate. As such, I do not believe anyone in the west will be willing to to do anything. No one will be willing to risk the oil. In other words, I believe the West (US and EU) are bluffing. There does not need to be war for Iran to beat the west. In fact, one might contend the west is beaten if there is no war with Iran.
 
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Jerry W. Loper    RE:The US can and will be beaten by Iran.    4/7/2006 2:08:09 PM
We'll see if that scenario works after Israel bombs the hell out of Iran's nuke facilities, which they will, even if nobody else does, seeing as how Iran's leaders have promised to wipe Israel off the map.
 
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CJH    RE:The US can and will be beaten by Iran.    4/7/2006 2:09:15 PM
You are saying they have the upper hand in the realm of grand strategy. Let's see. US policy thwarted. No recourse. US loses international respect. But wait, another nation comes to the rescue of the world and gets Iran to be good. Afterwards, the US must check with the UN and that other country before proceeding. Could this be the way it turns out?
 
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FJV    Conclusions based on insufficient data.   4/7/2006 4:44:13 PM
Iran (and North Korea) must actually have nuclear weapons. Up until very recently all nuclear powers have succesfully detonated a test nuke. Even Israel detonated one off the coast of South Africa. Saying you have them without such a test is just bluffing. The trouble with that is that bluffs usually/eventually get called! I don't for a minute believe all this crap about getting a working nuke without a working proptotype. You could propably call that bluff by daring them to do an underground test in such a way that they would irrepairably lose face if they didn't.
 
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reefdiver    RE:Conclusions based on insufficient data.   4/7/2006 6:45:05 PM
I saying that Iran feels they don't need nukes to keep the west at bay. They need only be powerful enough to assure the West they can close the gulf and wreak havoc with their economies. The ability to keep the west from acting is what will enable them to eventually obtain and perhaps test nukes. The US and EU may not move on Iran, but Israel is the wild card. The question is that if Israel attacks - will Iran wildly lash out at everyone - and act as if they've been attacked by the US. If they do in fact close the gulf, then I would think all bets are off - and the US will strike. I'm basically betting that the US and EU will not attack Iran first. As alluded to, Russia will be the big winner in all this. Not only do they get to sell billions more weapons to Iran in peace or war, but their political clout will go up as surely as their oil prices. For Iran, any delays amid rising tensions will assure they can keep working on their nukes, but just as importantly, the tensions assure the price of oil keeps moving up. With more money they have buy more weapons and forment more worldwide terrorism. This increases the tension more and the circle proceeds. Hey - maybe Iran is simply scaring the world to manipulate oil markets...
 
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yakeepi    RE:Conclusions based on insufficient data.   4/7/2006 7:02:45 PM
>>They need only be powerful enough to assure the West they can close the gulf and wreak havoc with their economies.<< Not just that. You look at the map you'll find all troops and contractors in Iraq depend on the supply line through the gulf, half a million of them. Plus you need to provide goods for Iraq civilian and troops as well. They can't sustain much long if the route is cut.
 
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Admiral Kirk    RE:Conclusions based on insufficient data.   4/7/2006 7:21:44 PM
I believe anything is possible. I do not believe you give the US enough credit in this situation. You may think Iran has the upper hand. Perhaps maybe they only think they do. I can tell you this, politically, Iran is losing this war. The EU, US and many other countries are getting fed up with Iran. Even Russia to an extent is growing tired of this nonsense. I dont know if you know this, but, if the US did get into a military conflict, Iran would get totally defeated. The US can and would control the gulf. Dont believe for a minute, that the US could not fight a 2nd war right now. It would prove perhaps a challenge, but the US would easily prevail. And do not forget, Israel would definately get a crack at these Iranians. Just because you see the news or read the paper, and says all this negative stuff about the US, perhaps you need to find out for yourself. I can tell you this, Iran poses no threat/challenge in a military fashion to the US. Perhaps if it does get nuclear weapons, then, maybe they could. At this point, Iran is desprately trying not to lose face the the international commumity. Long live the US and its allies. God Bless. Admiral Kirk
 
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reefdiver    RE:Conclusions based on insufficient data.   4/7/2006 9:36:46 PM
There is not doubt the US can defeat the Iranians very, very quickly. Of course for the Iranians it would be the old "The Father of All Wars" (since "Mother" has already been taken). At issue is how long the pattern of agressiveness, then promising to talk, then back will be allowed to continue. Its a good betting proposition. In the meantime the Iranians will continue to fight the US by proxy where ever possible.The Iranians no doubt have taken their cue from North Koreans who have threatened, blackmailed, lied, and stalled for decades. If nothing is done, then the Iranians have won. I believe its pointless talking to the Iranians as there's not doubt in my mind that they will play brinkmanship and then pull back time and time again. Its a tried and tested formula Saddam should have learned. Every time, politicians will say "let the political process work". It won't.
 
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Decimatus    RE:Conclusions based on insufficient data.   4/8/2006 11:55:29 PM
The media plays up the possibility that Iran could "close the gulf", but in reality it wouldn't be closed for more than a week or two at most. Whether or not the gulf gets closed for any amount of time, the price of oil will skyrocket when war starts and for a good long time after the war is over.
 
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Tommi Atkins    RE:Conclusions based on insufficient data.   4/9/2006 3:17:47 AM
The big question is, will it be a joint Israeli/US airstrike on their nice new station, or will Israel go it alone?
 
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Decimatus    RE:Conclusions based on insufficient data.   4/10/2006 12:41:14 AM
Israel will stay out of this one, unless due to some fluke the US isn't able to make the trip.
 
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