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Subject: Bombing will not do it IMHO.
FJV    4/19/2006 1:44:43 PM
After reading some stuff on the Iran nuke program, I'm starting to think that to just bomb the Iranian nuke programs will not be enough. At the moment I'm more tending towards a strategy that is a combination of military, civilian, political, economic measures. This would mean that on top of planning a military strike you would need to do several adittional things and have several additional things in place. Stuff like: - A sound financial basis for a multi decade effort - Prepared alliances - A pre prepared trade boycot for right after the strike at Iran's nuke program. - Counter measures and preparations against Iranian military retaliation. (possibly through terrorism) - For Iraq - For the US - For key US allies - For key nations which are not exactly US allies - Counter measures against Iranian economic retaliation. - Iranian manipulation of the oil market. - Iran threatening trade routes - Iran striking at key economic structures - Preperation of intelligence and covert operations - Possible assasination of key managers/nuclear scientists - Counter operations against smuggling of nuclear technology/materials into Iran. - A well developed public relations program beforehand. - Diplomatic preparation of key nations with regard to Iran. - A pre prepared response for other nations wanting too exploit the situation for for instance their own nuke programs Etc, ect. And this is just what I can think of from the top of my head. You will need some very extensive analysis to map all this out. And even after all that succes will not be guaranteed. This will not be easy, fast nor will it cheap.
 
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CJH    RE:Bombing will not do it IMHO.   4/19/2006 6:00:35 PM
Or to sum it up, international leadership of the first order.
 
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CJH    RE:Bombing will not do it IMHO.   4/19/2006 6:05:19 PM
Does energy independence look worthwhile provided it's doable? Anyway, Mexico which has discovered a big new find of oil, sells us oil. Maybe that's why Bush is so deferential to Fox. We will have to keep them happy.
 
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reefdiver    RE:Bombing will not do it IMHO.   4/20/2006 12:33:59 AM
You would have to keep bombing them for years. You might have to establish a long term blockade. Cheaper than boots on the ground, but very costly on so many levels.
 
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Decimatus    RE:Bombing will not do it IMHO.   4/23/2006 12:18:33 AM
We bombed Iraq for 4 straight weeks in GW 1 and they were pretty well screwed. If we had to bomb Iran for 2-3 straight months I think we could take down any building big enough to house a nuke program. Besides, do all these underground nuke bunkers have power, water, etc? I doubt it. Centrifuges won't spin with the juice. What about Iran's Uranium mines? They are going to have a hard time making bombs from Uranium they can't dig up due to lack of equipment to dig with.
 
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Decimatus    RE:Bombing will not do it IMHO.   4/23/2006 12:19:47 AM
Correction: Centrifuges won't spin withOUT the juice.
 
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reefdiver    RE:Bombing will not do it IMHO.   4/23/2006 11:54:31 PM
Just taking out Iran's refineries and imposing a shipping blockade would be extremely painful for them. Remember they import 40% of their gasoline. Their economy will stop. They will become dependent upon their Arab neighbors - who really don't appreciate them much. So, I'd take out their refineries first instead of their nukes. Then you can take out their military and then their nuclear plants. Will it be painless? The understatement of an answer would be - Nope.
 
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