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Subject: Possible bad news from Iran--
Herc the Merc    6/23/2006 1:51:15 PM
From , Apparently the Author Graham Allison claims Western intelligence in Iran is severely limited--read on->> Might Western intelligence services have underestimated Iran’s nuclear program? The judgment that Tehran is five to ten years away from a bomb focuses primarily on its overt enrichment program at Isfahan and Natanz. The dog that hasn’t barked is Iran’s covert programs for acquiring nuclear weapons. Four huge "known unknowns" lie at the heart of judgments about the threat posed by Iran: First, is success in Iran’s overt effort a necessary condition for success in its covert programs? President Bush and his European colleagues operate on the assumption that it is. Otherwise their operational objective – a moratorium on research activities at Isfahan and Natanz – would be beside the point. Second, have Iranian nuclear scientists and engineers already learned enough at the Natanz facility about assembling and operating a cascade of centrifuges that they can now independently build and run such a cascade? Have they passed what has previously been called a "point of no return"? Third, has Iran bought highly enriched uranium from former Soviet stockpiles, Pakistan or elsewhere? Are they clandestinely building nuclear bombs using Chinese warhead designs acquired from A.Q. Khan? If so, engaging the US in bargaining about enrichment activity at Natanz could be a way to distract attention and buy time. Fourth, has Iran purchased actual nuclear warheads from the former Soviet arsenal or from Pakistan to mate with its Shahab-3 missile? Three "known" bits of evidence are hard to fit into the jigsaw puzzle that American intelligence has assembled. First, in August 2004, Iran test-fired a Shahab missile that featured a nose cone usually reserved for nuclear weapons. Second, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei has disclosed a connection between Iran’s nuclear program and its military activity, including a missile reentry vehicle. Third, the father of the Pakistani nuclear program, Dr. A.Q. Khan, sold Iran advanced P2 centrifuge designs that are still unaccounted for. President Ahmadinejad’s recent declaration that Iran is using P2 centrifuges could mean that Iran is much closer to its goal.
 
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