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Subject: US must Attack First!
RockyMTNClimber    5/22/2007 11:41:39 AM
Diplomacy does not work with pirates. It is truely time to use a mix of Airpower, naval blockades, and commando raids to shut down the Iranian influences in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, & the Palestinian Territories. Don't wait, Attack! Check Six Rocky Iran's secret plan for summer offensive to force US out of Iraq Simon Tisdall Tuesday May 22, 2007 The Guardian US soldiers visit an Iraqi army base in Amiriya, a Sunni neighbourhood in west Baghdad. Photograph: Sean Smith Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Sunni Arab militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for full military withdrawal, US officials say. "Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it's a very dangerous course for them to be following. They are already committing daily acts of war against US and British forces," a senior US official in Baghdad warned. "They [Iran] are behind a lot of high-profile attacks meant to undermine US will and British will, such as the rocket attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The attacks are directed by the Revolutionary Guard who are connected right to the top [of the Iranian government]." Article continues -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Iranian-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to Tehran's Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. "We expect that al-Qaida and Iran will both attempt to increase the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus's report in September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush's controversial, six-month security "surge" of 30,000 troop reinforcements]," the official said. "Certainly it [the violence] is going to pick up from their side. There is significant latent capability in Iraq, especially Iranian-sponsored capability. They can turn it up whenever they want. You can see that from the pre-positioning that's been going on and the huge stockpiles of Iranian weapons that we've turned up in the last couple of months. The relationships between Iran and groups like al-Qaida are very fluid," the official said. "It often comes down to individuals, and people constantly move around. For instance, the Sunni Arab so-called resistance groups use Salafi jihadist ideology for their own purposes. But the whole Iran- al-Qaida linkup is very sinister." Iran has maintained close links to Iraq's Shia political parties and militias but has previously eschewed collaboration with al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents. US officials now say they have firm evidence that Tehran has switched tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a parallel development, they say they also have proof that Iran has reversed its previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting and supplying the Taliban's campaign against US, British and other Nato forces. Tehran's strategy to discredit the US surge and foment a decisive congressional revolt against Mr Bush is national in scope and not confined to the Shia south, its traditional sphere of influence, the senior official in Baghdad said. It included stepped-up coordination with Shia militias such as Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi as well as Syrian-backed Sunni Arab groups and al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, he added. Iran was also expanding contacts across the board with paramilitary forces and political groups, including Kurdish parties such as the PUK, a US ally. "Their strategy takes into account all these various parties. Iran is playing all these different factions to maximise its future control and maximise US and British difficulties. Their co-conspirator is Syria which is allowing the takfirists [fundamentalist Salafi jihadis] to come across the border," the official said. Any US decision to retaliate against Iran on its own territory could be taken only at the highest political level in Washington, the official said. But he indicated that American patience was wearing thin. Warning that the US was "absolutely determined" to hit back hard wherever it was challenged by Iranian proxies or agents inside Iraq, he cited the case of five alleged members of the Revolutionary Guard's al-Quds force detained in Irbil in January. Despite strenuous protests from Tehran, which claims the men are diplomats, they have still not been released. "Tehran is behaving like a racecourse gambler. They're betting on all the horses in the race, even on people they fundamentally don't trust," a senior administration official in Washington said. "They don't know what the outcome will be in Iraq. So they're hedging their bets." The administration official also c
 
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RockyMTNClimber    What emboldens the Iranians?   5/22/2007 12:00:54 PM

1. The failure of the Brits to take action during their recent "kidnapping" incident (as a side note I am serious when I say expect the Iranians to try to nab a bigger UK tarket next time. Like a Frigate or Logistical ship).
 
2. Tony Blair's resignation under a cloud that the war had driven him from office early.
 
Not to leave the US's role out of this potential debacle:
 
3. US electorate changing the political winds from no cut and run, to strategic withdrawl.
 
4. The MSM continuing drum beat of pessimism over the results of the GWOT and Bush's poll standings (which are directly related).
 
5. US Congress.
 
6. The Iranians have already succeeded in attacking the US directly in Iraq with out being punished, not to mention Israel. This lack of response has created a feeling in Tehran that we will fold our tent. It may be right, but more likely the fact that the western liberals are sqwaking retreat will embolden our enemy to attack, create a response from our side, and lengthen the war, killing more on both sides.
 
Time to leave the  politics on the shore and kill our enemy before he can gravely injure us.
 
"We must hang together, or we will assuredly hang seperately..."- Ben Franklin
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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mithradates       5/24/2007 12:28:11 PM



1. The failure of the Brits to take action during their recent "kidnapping" incident (as a side note I am serious when I say expect the Iranians to try to nab a bigger UK tarket next time. Like a Frigate or Logistical ship).

 

2. Tony Blair's resignation under a cloud that the war had driven him from office early.

 

Not to leave the US's role out of this potential debacle:

 

3. US electorate changing the political winds from no cut and run, to strategic withdrawl.
 

4. The MSM continuing drum beat of pessimism over the results of the GWOT and Bush's poll standings (which are directly related).

 

5. US Congress.

 

6. The Iranians have already succeeded in attacking the US directly in Iraq with out being punished, not to mention Israel. This lack of response has created a feeling in Tehran that we will fold our tent. It may be right, but more likely the fact that the western liberals are sqwaking retreat will embolden our enemy to attack, create a response from our side, and lengthen the war, killing more on both sides.

 

Time to leave the  politics on the shore and kill our enemy before he can gravely injure us.

 

"We must hang together, or we will assuredly hang seperately..."- Ben Franklin

 

Check Six

 

Rocky



Touch Iran and see what happens. :)
 
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reefdiver       5/24/2007 12:47:03 PM
Ahmadinejad is more than a bit deluded but here's a excerpt from his most recent blustering:
 
"If Iran's right to nuclear technology is confirmed, all nations of the world will gather under Iran's political banner. Enemies of Islamic Iran know this, and for this reason they have mobilized," Ahmadinejad said.
 
-- Though this is one of Ahmadinejad's less threatening comments, it is once again ominously indicative of the way this guy is thinking.  Perhaps at some point the west may have to start taking this guy seriously. Of course, if you truely take him seriously, you will want to (have to?) attack Iran today. This is the question: do you take Ahmadinejad and his regime - and what they say - seriously?  As often repeated, Hitler's early threats weren't taken seriously by most even as the world watched him building up arms.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Please expand on your thought.....   5/24/2007 1:41:14 PM
Touch Iran and see what happens. :)
 
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reefdiver       5/26/2007 3:12:31 PM

Touch Iran and see what happens. :)


I imagine he's thinking if Iran is attacked, the US and the entire world will suffer and be thrown into chaos as Iran unleashes terrorists all over the world and perhaps sinks a couple of tankers in the gulf. Its a threat Iran keeps re-iterating in the belief that it will scare the US into refraining from attacking.  I believe that rather than keeping the US and others from attacking, this type of sabre-rattling should encourage them to attack now, rather than waiting for Iran to just keep getting stronger and someday have nukes.  No rational nation would publically make such statements.  It does not seem prudent to wait for an enemy such as Iran to choose the time and place of a future conflict after they have radically increased their arms capability. I still believe that massive lightening strikes decimating Irans military, their military industrial infrastructure (later including nuke facilities), and their oil refining capability would cut off world terrorism rather than increase it.  Iran would have to spend their money rebuilding over a period of time rather than funding terrorism. With their refineries destroyed, they'd also have to spend a lot of money importing gasoline from their neighbors - making them dependent on their neighbors. 
 
Without money, the mullahs may lose much of their power - in spite of possible increased nationalism in the country. If the attack are surgical enough (i.e. minimum civilians are killed), the citizenry might just understand the attacks were a result of the mullahs foolish decisions.
 
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00_Chem_AJB       5/26/2007 3:58:33 PM
What do you do with their indoctrinated civilians/students? The ones who think and sometimes act like the Revolutionary Guard?
 
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displacedjim       5/26/2007 4:26:49 PM
Basically we don't do anything with them.  We don't occupy Iran, we attack Iran.  Even if that includes inserting some ground forces to destroy some objectives, we withdraw them as soon as militarily possible.
 
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00_Chem_AJB       5/26/2007 4:44:15 PM
So do what we (NATO) did to Serbia in 1999? Hmm sounds good, though something tells me any regime change in Iran (with or with out foreign intervention) wont go smoothly, it'll probably end in bloody civil war because of those extremists.
 
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swhitebull    Economic Attack is More Economical   5/26/2007 4:47:15 PM
from National Review:
 

Iran Has Many Economic Woes...   [Mario Loyola]

... and perhaps the biggest is President Ahmadinejad. Here's a little comic relief from a country that hasn't provided much in recent years:

Iran's moderate press and economists Thursday slammed a decision by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to slash interest rates, describing the move as "incomprehensible" and risking "economic suicide." The rate cut, which economists said could overheat an already inflationary economy, appeared to have been taken without the knowledge of Iran's economy minister, who had said exactly the opposite just hours earlier.

"Economic suicide for banks," the Mardomsalari (Democracy) newspaper said of Tuesday's move. "The economy minister and the head of the Central Bank have to explain this decision since this decree is incomprehensible for economists," Saeed Shirkavand, economy minister in the previous reformist government, was quoted as saying.

The government spokesman said Tuesday state bank interest rates were being cut to 12 percent from 14 percent and rates at private banks to 12 percent from 17 percent in a bid to create fair competition among lenders.

The former head of the Tehran stock exchange, Hossein Abdo Tabrizi, said "this ad-hoc decision will not benefit the investment market at all and will only terrify investors. They will start to worry that maybe tomorrow there will be such decisions to control and create a price ceiling for shares," he told the Kargozaran newspaper.

The centrist Ham Mihan daily said that hours before the decision was announced, both Economy Minister Davoud Danesh Jafari and Central Bank chief Ebrahim Sheibani vowed rates would stay the same.

The report goes on to provide some context:

Money-supply growth is running at a huge 40 percent and the government is beginning to implement a gasoline rationing plan that has already seen pump prices rise by 25 percent. [...] Meanwhile, about 7,000 students from some 17 universities have signed a petition criticizing an ongoing moral crackdown, saying economic problems were of greater importance, the reformist Etemad daily reported.

Iran's suicidal economic policies may be the single best hope we have for an eventual denuclearization of the country. Those policies are ruining the prospects for Iran's long-term economic health while throwing away the current oil windfall. They have begun to generate open hostility to Ahmadinejad within the country's most powerful elites.

Iran's hardliners are now clearly on a collision-course with popular expectations of improved economic opportunity. The more unpopular the mullahs become, the more extreme the reaction is likely to be eventually — in the direction of a government that favors free markets and good relations with the West, and is willing to give up a nuclear-breakout capability in exchange.
 
swhitebull - economy is a house of cards, and wouldnt require a lot to push it down. A refinery here, an embargo there. Iran doesnt have a lot of slack to prop itself up.

 

 
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RockyMTNClimber    I was hoping that Myth would man-up and explain himself.   5/26/2007 10:41:05 PM
 
Not to be.........
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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