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Subject: SP numbers about the dead...
mustavaris    12/12/2005 1:28:51 AM
"The Total Dead in Iraq December 11, 2005: American fatalities in Iraq, so far, amount to 2,400 coalition dead (89 percent American), about 12,000 Iraqi soldiers and police killed (half defending Saddam in early 2003, the rest defending the new Iraqi government), and about 28,000 civilians. The civilian figure includes anti-government forces. In fact, at least half the “civilian” dead are terrorists and anti-government gunmen. We know that because over 80 percent of the dead civilians are adult males (which normally account for only about a quarter of the population.) However, adult males comprise over 99 percent of the terrorist and anti-government gunmen population. " If all of the males killed were terrorists/insurgents that would mean worse than 1:10 KIA ratio in coalition-terrorist numbers... Iraqi forces and wounded excluded. This number could only be true if the war is going far worse than expressed before... and don´t talk about the caught insurgents/WIAs in about every news its less than the number of killed [aint fast enough to surrender]. Someone wants to diminish the number of killed I think... or the war goes worse than imagined. Choose whether you wan, I choose the first one.
 
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Herodotus    RE:SP numbers about the dead...   12/12/2005 2:34:21 AM
Mustavaris, If you think there is a 1:10 ratio in KIA, then that would mean almost 90,000 insurgents have been killed, not to mention the 25,000 prisoners the US and Iraqi government are currently holding, not to mention that the size of the insurgency has not really decreased in two years. So this puts the Iraqi insurgency in the VC range of numbers (100,000), which is impossible because they are not fielding that many guys. If those kill ratios are accurate then the force ratios are less then 7:1, as the coalition and Iraqi forces only total 250,000 thus also making it difficult to win the war. The number of insurgents that the US states is in Iraq has never risen above 25,000 which is convienent because if that number is true then our force ratio is 10:1 which historically is the primer for victory in an insurgency. I personally doubt that the insurgents number so few, but they are probably no more than 45,000, with probably 15,000-20,000 dead. So this would put the kill ratios at 1:3, or 1:4 which is more accuarte historically when fighting an insurgency. It will also put the force ratios at 5:1, which is usually not adequate to win in asymetrical warfare. The only question is how fast are they recuriting?
 
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mustavaris    RE:SP numbers about the dead...   12/12/2005 2:57:44 AM
1:10 ratio with Coalition casualties -> 24K insurgent KIAs. I excluded WIAs and Iraqi forces´casualties.
 
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Herodotus    RE:SP numbers about the dead...   12/12/2005 2:16:44 PM
That is still a 1:5, 1:6 kill ratio which is historically more in line with fighting an insurgency, the 1:10 kill ratio does not mean an automatic victory for the intervening power. The US had a 1:20 kill ratio in Vietnam and still lost. Oh sorry the ARVN lost, but the US did not win.
 
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joe6pack    RE:SP numbers about the dead... Herodotus   12/12/2005 5:02:24 PM
Where are you getting this number of 1:10 to properly fight an insurgency? I'm curious as to the material and would like to read up on theory. The only reference to a 10:1 ratio I've ever heard is in regards to MOUT. Thanks, J6P
 
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joe6pack    RE:SP numbers about the dead... Herodotus - oops   12/12/2005 5:03:46 PM
In both cases in my previous post I meant a 10:1 advantage.
 
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mustavaris    RE:SP numbers about the dead...   12/13/2005 3:33:13 AM
As positive assumption as possible [from given figures]. 85% male [over 80%, not nearly 90%], ALL terrorists/insurgents: 23 800 KIA vs over 2400 Coalition KIA. It´s d@mn sure that all the killed men are not enemies so something must suck... [esp. when you add 6000 Iraqi soldiers/police troops to numbers]. The figure is much too low or the war is going worse than believed [by SP et al]. Clarified now?
 
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Herodotus    RE:SP numbers about the dead...   12/13/2005 5:10:34 PM
President Bush said there are 30,000 Iraqi civilans, insurgent, police and military killed since the begining of the war. About 5,000 are Iraqi police and military. So there are 25,000 civilians killed since the begining of the war, 30 percent of them were killed before May 1, 2003. That leaves 17,500 civilians left over for the last two years, 80 percent male, 20 percent woman and children. SO that leaves 14,000 Iraqi males that are not police killed over the last two years, they cannot all be insurgents as some are Shia, and some have been killed by the insurgents. So we can probably be safe in saying 10,000 insurgents killed by the coalition, which is about a 1:3 kill ratio. However it does not mean the war goes badly, kill ratios are not definitive and a 1:10 kill ratio does not mean victory for the non-insurgent side. In the Rhodesian War in the 1970s some 7,000 insurgents under Mugabe and the other insurgent groups were killed, and only 686 security forces were killed--A 1:10 ratio. Yet Ian Smith's government collapsed and an insurgent leader (Mugabe) is still president of Zimbabwe. It is almost impossible to determine how many insurgents are killed in any given insurgency since these numbers can be inflated, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. To joesixpack: I think the 1:10 kill ratio theory came from the Malayan Emergency, much like the force ratios (tie-down ratios that are to be 7:1 for an insurgency to be defeated) and the strategic hamlet program and the training of native troops. But also common sense should dictate if you kill ten percent of an enemies' capacity it is difficult for them to win.
 
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Herodotus    RE:SP numbers about the dead...More numbers   12/13/2005 7:04:01 PM
I found this from the Independent, I don't know where they got the numbers so take them with a grain of salt. 53,470 Iraqi insurgents killed http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article332814.ece
 
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sentinel28a    RE:SP numbers about the dead...More numbers   12/14/2005 3:39:59 AM
Numbers mean little. They can be twisted to suit any sort of opinion on the war. What means much is how effective the insurgency is being and how long they can maintain their popular support. Their overall effectiveness has been greatly lowered and as for their popular support--when you've got one faction threatening the other with death, that's a good sign that you're winning. The Germans killed far more Russians than the Russians killed Germans, but we know who won that one in '45.
 
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mustavaris    RE:SP numbers about the dead...More numbers   12/14/2005 7:11:31 AM
Sentinel is right... I just read that in some occasions even 10:1 were considered as a victory by Soviets even though they weren´t advancing... Just holding the ground with that ratio was considered as a succes and this wasn´t even in the defensive phase, but in second half of 1943 when tide was turning. Numbers are numbers...
 
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